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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251847
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Another clear and calm night in store as
high pressure remains in control. Lows in the lower 60 inland to
around 70 along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High off the southeast coast will
continue to ushering in warmer air into the area. SW flow will be
fairly light. Have noted a bit more moisture in the mid levels,
thus we may see an increase in cloud cover in the afternoon,
especially along the seabreeze and moving inland. Otherwise,
mainly sunny skies and above normal temperatures, upper 80s
inland to upper 70s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Little change in overall forecast with
warm dry weather Friday, followed by unsettled weather and
enhanced rain chances with possible subtropical/tropical system
over the weekend into early next week.

Thursday Night through Friday: Axis of strong NVA moving west from
the Atlantic and westward push of Bermuda Ridge should keep
Thursday night and Friday dry across the region. With axis of
mid-level ridge overhead, high temperatures Friday will be quite
warm with mid/upper 80s inland and lower 80s Outer Banks.

Friday night through Wednesday: Not much has changed with regards
to forecast evolution of surface low moving northwest from the
Bahamas that could be a subtropical/tropical system over the
weekend of the GA/SC coast. GFS/ECMWF ensembles continue to be in
good agreement with the Canadian being the outlier, as it develops
a rather strong system and brings it into the Myrtle Beach area
Saturday night. Will lean toward a GFS/ECMWF ensemble blend which
essentially is the same as yesterday, showing the surface
meandering to our south given a rather weak mid-level flow. Both
models depict waves of showers affecting our region starting
Saturday and continuing into early next week. The wettest period
appears to be from Sunday afternoon through Monday, but based on
MOS guidance and surrounding offices, have kept PoPs in the high
chance (40-50% chance) through this period. If the system is able
to develop a bit, latest 5-day QPF estimates show 1-2 inches
possible along the coast through early Monday. No big temperature
swings in this period with highs generally low/mid 80s and lows in
the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the
short term with mostly clear skies. Winds will be SW less than 10
knots today becoming light and variable overnight. Low level
moisture remains limited so will leave patchy fog out of the TAF
site forecasts, although shallow ditch fog early Thursday morning
can not be ruled out. Another mostly clear day tomorrow with light
south flow.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are likely Thursday night
and Friday as surface ridge lingers offshore and the mid-level
ridge crests over the region. Model guidance continues to indicate
surface low, possible subtropical/tropical, to form and move
toward the GA/SC coast Saturday into Monday. This will result in
an increase in shower activity through the period with the
greatest coverage of rain likely to be Sunday afternoon into
Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be likely with some convective
activity possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Pleasant boating conditions through the
period with high pressure off the southeast coast. Expect SW winds
5 to 10 knots during the overnight/early morning increasing to
10-15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...With surface high pressure lingering
offshore and the axis of the mid-level ridge in place, light se/s
winds at 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet can be expected Thursday
night and Friday. Local SWAN model continues to show increased SE
swell energy and building seas for Saturday through Sunday with 6
foot seas possible from Oregon Inlet south, especially over the
outer waters, with SCA conditions a good possibility. Seas
diminish to 3-5 feet by Sunday night into Monday as surface low
meanders to our south.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251717
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
117 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...No changes needed on update. Above
normal temps in store as the the H5 ridge builds into the region.
Given this and the Bermuda High in place, this will translate into
increasing thickness under sunny skies and warm SW flow allowing
temps to climb into the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Surface ridge remains to the south tonight
with a light and warm SW flow continuing across ENC. Skies will
remain clear with temperatures falling into the lower 60s inland
to the mid and upper 60s on the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...No significant changes during forecast
period with this issuance. Latest models remain in decent
agreement with warm and dry conditions through Friday, then
subtropical moisture affecting area rest of period with mid level
weakness and surface reflection lifting N-NW toward SE U.S. coast.

Thursday through Friday night...Rising upper level heights
coupled with surface high pressure lingering off the Carolina
coast will lead to warm and dry conditions through the remainder
of the work week. Numerical guidance shows high temperatures well
into the 80s Thursday with lower 80s Outer Banks. There is a
subtle difference on Friday with models indicating low level
thicknesses 5-10 meters lower than Thursday, which is reflected in
MOS guidance with max temps a couple of degrees cooler. Adjusted
max temp forecast accordingly with mainly mid 80s inland and
around 80 beaches.

Saturday through Tuesday...00Z models remain in decent agreement
with gradual pattern change that will result in upper ridge along
east coast moving east. In turn, mid level weakness with sub-
tropical moisture east of Bahamas will be be drawn NW toward SE
U.S. coast. Models continue to indicate weak surface low moving
toward GA/SC with some concern for tropical/subtropical
development but models generally keep it south of Eastern NC
during period. Main result for area will be increasing subtropical
moisture with deepening SE-S flow with threat of at least
scattered coverage of showers/thunderstorms through period. Kept
POPs in chance range for now. With the increased cloud coverage,
expecting a small diurnal temperature variation through this
period with lows generally upper 60s to around 70 and highs around
80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the
short term with mostly clear skies. Winds will be SW less than 10
knots today becoming light and variable overnight. Low level
moisture remains limited so will leave patchy fog out of the TAF
site forecasts, although shallow ditch fog early Thursday morning
can not be ruled out. Another mostly clear day tomorrow with light
south flow.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure along the southeast coast
coupled with ridging aloft will lead to VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies Wednesday night through Friday/Friday night. As
usual...there could be brief patches of early morning fog, but
overall impact will be minimal. Longer range guidance still
indicates low pressure forming off the GA/SC coast by the weekend
with an increase in low-level moisture and precipitation for
Saturday and Sunday...with sub-VFR conditions possible with
convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...No changes. Pleasant boating conditions
through the period with high pressure off the southeast coast.
Expect SW winds 5-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet continuing tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure at the surface and aloft
will help maintain S/SW at generally less than 15 knots with seas
around 2 feet Thursday and Thursday night. Good agreement with
longer range models showing surface low pressure forming off the
GA/SC coast and meandering to our south into early next week with
very weak mid-level flow. Result will be persistent E-SE winds
around 10 KT across waters with seas building to 4-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JBM/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251335
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...No changes needed on update. Above
normal temps in store as the the H5 ridge builds into the region.
Given this and the Bermuda High in place, this will translate into
increasing thickness under sunny skies and warm SW flow allowing
temps to climb into the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Surface ridge remains to the south tonight
with a light and warm SW flow continuing across ENC. Skies will
remain clear with temperatures falling into the lower 60s inland
to the mid and upper 60s on the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...No significant changes during forecast
period with this issuance. Latest models remain in decent
agreement with warm and dry conditions through Friday, then
subtropical moisture affecting area rest of period with mid level
weakness and surface reflection lifting N-NW toward SE U.S. coast.

Thursday through Friday night...Rising upper level heights
coupled with surface high pressure lingering off the Carolina
coast will lead to warm and dry conditions through the remainder
of the work week. Numerical guidance shows high temperatures well
into the 80s Thursday with lower 80s Outer Banks. There is a
subtle difference on Friday with models indicating low level
thicknesses 5-10 meters lower than Thursday, which is reflected in
MOS guidance with max temps a couple of degrees cooler. Adjusted
max temp forecast accordingly with mainly mid 80s inland and
around 80 beaches.

Saturday through Tuesday...00Z models remain in decent agreement
with gradual pattern change that will result in upper ridge along
east coast moving east. In turn, mid level weakness with sub-
tropical moisture east of Bahamas will be be drawn NW toward SE
U.S. coast. Models continue to indicate weak surface low moving
toward GA/SC with some concern for tropical/subtropical
development but models generally keep it south of Eastern NC
during period. Main result for area will be increasing subtropical
moisture with deepening SE-S flow with threat of at least
scattered coverage of showers/thunderstorms through period. Kept
POPs in chance range for now. With the increased cloud coverage,
expecting a small diurnal temperature variation through this
period with lows generally upper 60s to around 70 and highs around
80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the short
term with mostly clear skies. Winds will be SW less than 10 knots
today becoming light SW tonight. Low level moisture remains
limited so will leave patchy fog out of the TAF site forecasts for
tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure along the southeast coast
coupled with ridging aloft will lead to VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies Wednesday night through Friday/Friday night. As
usual...there could be brief patches of early morning fog, but
overall impact will be minimal. Longer range guidance still
indicates low pressure forming off the GA/SC coast by the weekend
with an increase in low-level moisture and precipitation for
Saturday and Sunday...with sub-VFR conditions possible with
convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...No changes. Pleasant boating conditions
through the period with high pressure off the southeast coast.
Expect SW winds 5-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet continuing tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure at the surface and aloft
will help maintain S/SW at generally less than 15 knots with seas
around 2 feet Thursday and Thursday night. Good agreement with
longer range models showing surface low pressure forming off the
GA/SC coast and meandering to our south into early next week with
very weak mid-level flow. Result will be persistent E-SE winds
around 10 KT across waters with seas building to 4-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM/LEP





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