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000
FXUS62 KMHX 191124
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. THICKER CI
OVER SW SECTIONS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W-SW. FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS
TO INCREASE POPS TO 30% OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING.

00Z GFS DISCOUNTED DUE TO BEING AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND LEANED TO 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST MOST OF PERIOD.

PERSISTENT SE US UPR TROF FCST TO EVOLVE INTO WEAK UPR LOW BY LATE
SAT...THEN DAMPEN AND MOVE NE ALONG NC COAST SUN WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE. ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHRT WV
WILL THEN DIVE SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. SRN PORTION OF UPR
TROF AGAIN FCST TO STALL S OF AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT N THU WITH
COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SFC HIGH WEDGED IN TO N.

PREVIOUS FCST FOR SAT AND SAT EVENING ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUS
AND CHC OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO S AND
UPR LOW MOVING NE ALONG COAST. ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE ON
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE TO S AND E.
PCPN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH SUN AFT AND SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW...AND NO CHANGES TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SAT THROUGH MON WILL SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID 80S INLAND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE-THU AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. NE-E WINDS WILL
GUST TO 15-20 KT WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ.
MOS GDNC INDICATING IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KPGV AND
KISO...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SFC PRES CONDENSATION DEFICIT FIELDS.
THINK CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT BUT MVFR VSBYS
PSBL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
(OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 710 AM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
NE-E FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE
WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO
NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15
KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/JBM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JME/JBM
MARINE...SK/JME/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 191124
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
724 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. THICKER CI
OVER SW SECTIONS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W-SW. FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS
TO INCREASE POPS TO 30% OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING.

00Z GFS DISCOUNTED DUE TO BEING AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND LEANED TO 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST MOST OF PERIOD.

PERSISTENT SE US UPR TROF FCST TO EVOLVE INTO WEAK UPR LOW BY LATE
SAT...THEN DAMPEN AND MOVE NE ALONG NC COAST SUN WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE. ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHRT WV
WILL THEN DIVE SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. SRN PORTION OF UPR
TROF AGAIN FCST TO STALL S OF AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT N THU WITH
COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SFC HIGH WEDGED IN TO N.

PREVIOUS FCST FOR SAT AND SAT EVENING ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUS
AND CHC OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO S AND
UPR LOW MOVING NE ALONG COAST. ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE ON
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE TO S AND E.
PCPN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH SUN AFT AND SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW...AND NO CHANGES TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SAT THROUGH MON WILL SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID 80S INLAND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE-THU AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. NE-E WINDS WILL
GUST TO 15-20 KT WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ.
MOS GDNC INDICATING IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KPGV AND
KISO...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM SFC PRES CONDENSATION DEFICIT FIELDS.
THINK CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT BUT MVFR VSBYS
PSBL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
(OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 710 AM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
NE-E FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE
WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO
NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15
KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/JBM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JME/JBM
MARINE...SK/JME/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 190852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS
TO INCREASE POPS TO 30% OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING.

00Z GFS DISCOUNTED DUE TO BEING AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND LEANED TO 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST MOST OF PERIOD.

PERSISTENT SE US UPR TROF FCST TO EVOLVE INTO WEAK UPR LOW BY LATE
SAT...THEN DAMPEN AND MOVE NE ALONG NC COAST SUN WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE. ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHRT WV
WILL THEN DIVE SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. SRN PORTION OF UPR
TROF AGAIN FCST TO STALL S OF AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT N THU WITH
COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SFC HIGH WEDGED IN TO N.

PREVIOUS FCST FOR SAT AND SAT EVENING ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUS
AND CHC OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO S AND
UPR LOW MOVING NE ALONG COAST. ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE ON
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE TO S AND E.
PCPN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH SUN AFT AND SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW...AND NO CHANGES TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SAT THROUGH MON WILL SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID 80S INLAND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE-THU AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING A CROSS-OVER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST MINS. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
NE-E FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
(OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
NE-E FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE
WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO
NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15
KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JME/JBM
MARINE...SK/JME/JBM










000
FXUS62 KMHX 190852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS
TO INCREASE POPS TO 30% OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING.

00Z GFS DISCOUNTED DUE TO BEING AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND LEANED TO 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST MOST OF PERIOD.

PERSISTENT SE US UPR TROF FCST TO EVOLVE INTO WEAK UPR LOW BY LATE
SAT...THEN DAMPEN AND MOVE NE ALONG NC COAST SUN WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE. ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHRT WV
WILL THEN DIVE SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. SRN PORTION OF UPR
TROF AGAIN FCST TO STALL S OF AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT N THU WITH
COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SFC HIGH WEDGED IN TO N.

PREVIOUS FCST FOR SAT AND SAT EVENING ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUS
AND CHC OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO S AND
UPR LOW MOVING NE ALONG COAST. ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE ON
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE TO S AND E.
PCPN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH SUN AFT AND SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW...AND NO CHANGES TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SAT THROUGH MON WILL SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID 80S INLAND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE-THU AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING A CROSS-OVER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST MINS. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
NE-E FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
(OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
NE-E FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE
WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO
NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15
KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JME/JBM
MARINE...SK/JME/JBM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 190645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID
WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING A CROSS-OVER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST MINS. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
NE-E FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH
MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT
TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 190645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 215 AM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING COMFORTABLE E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU
THROUGH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID
WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING A CROSS-OVER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST MINS. HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
NE-E FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE WATERS. CURRENT OBS SHOWING E/NE
WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-4 FT BUT NWPS/WAVEWATCH BUILD SEAS UP TO
5-6 FT AND LOCALLY TO 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING
AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH
MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT
TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 190209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
A QUICKER PACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...WL CONT WITH VFR FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WILL RESULT IN MCLR TO PC SKIES THRU
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN DROP IN DEWPTS TODAY COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FOOT LVL LATE
DONT THINK WILL SEE MUCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...ADJUSTED WIND SPEED UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR DIAMOND AND LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20KTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AND NE WINDS AROUND 8-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS
AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS BUT
A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 190209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 PM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. TEMPS ARE FALLING QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
A QUICKER PACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...WL CONT WITH VFR FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WILL RESULT IN MCLR TO PC SKIES THRU
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN DROP IN DEWPTS TODAY COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FOOT LVL LATE
DONT THINK WILL SEE MUCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...ADJUSTED WIND SPEED UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR DIAMOND AND LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20KTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AND NE WINDS AROUND 8-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS
AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS BUT
A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 182216
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREV FCST. LOWERED INIT
SKY CVR ESPCLY CST WHERE CURRENTLY CLR. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT
NIGHT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

PREV DISC...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...WL CONT WITH VFR FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WILL RESULT IN MCLR TO PC SKIES THRU
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN DROP IN DEWPTS TODAY COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FOOT LVL LATE
DONT THINK WILL SEE MUCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP INIT SCA FOR CNTRL
WTRS AS BUOY 41025 HAS DROPPED BELOW 6 FT PAST CPL HRS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS
AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS BUT
A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...RF/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/DAG
MARINE...RF/JME/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 182216
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
616 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM...JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREV FCST. LOWERED INIT
SKY CVR ESPCLY CST WHERE CURRENTLY CLR. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT
NIGHT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

PREV DISC...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...WL CONT WITH VFR FCST THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WILL RESULT IN MCLR TO PC SKIES THRU
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN DROP IN DEWPTS TODAY COMBINED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FOOT LVL LATE
DONT THINK WILL SEE MUCH.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/
AS OF 615 PM THU...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP INIT SCA FOR CNTRL
WTRS AS BUOY 41025 HAS DROPPED BELOW 6 FT PAST CPL HRS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS
AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS BUT
A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...RF/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...RF/JME/DAG
MARINE...RF/JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDONE PREDICTING IFR CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT
SWELLS AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS
BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 181946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDONE PREDICTING IFR CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT
SWELLS AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS
BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AGREEMENT IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY ALONG A FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES IT WILL PICK UP THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE MID WEEK
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. EXCEPTION WILL BE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS POSSIBLY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ISOLATED READINGS INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THE MOST COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST PARALLELING THE COAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE STRONGEST AND
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHILE ECMWF IS WEAKER/FURTHER OFFSHORE. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH SEEMS BEST WHICH WILL
MEAN MAINTAINING THE 20-30% POPS FOR A LIGHT QPF EVENT EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 (HIGHEST IMMEDIATE COAST) DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS BACK MORE
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANTLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDONE PREDICTING IFR CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT
SWELLS AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS
BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY THEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF
THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE
THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN
BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY
FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181737
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
137 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDONE PREDICTING IFR CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT
SWELLS AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS
BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181737
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
137 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OBX DARE
COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE
S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN
SEAS/WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR OCEAN
OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE WHICH
WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT
BUT GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS VIRGINIA
THEN WASHOUT...THUS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH AN AIRMASS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM THURS...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SLOWLY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS
OVERDONE PREDICTING IFR CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT
SWELLS AROUND 11-13 SECONDS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES...THEN AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE 10-15 KNOTS
BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE ZONES. EXPECT A RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED SEAS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING SEAS BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 181351
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 945 AM...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OBX DARE COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH
POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE
SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH
NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN SEAS/WINDS TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
INDICATE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4
FT SWELLS AROUND 12-14 SECONDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 13 SECONDS
TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 181351
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 945 AM...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO ADD A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OBX DARE COUNTY...FOR MINOR OVERWASH
POSSIBLE ALONG HWY 12 NEAR THE S-CURVES TO THE TEMPORARY BRIDGE
SOUTH OF PEA ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS
RESULTED IN MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH YESTERDAY AT HIGH TIDE...AND WITH
NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN SEAS/WINDS TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH THIS AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE BETWEEN 4:30 AND 5:00 PM EDT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE TRENDED BACK CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAINTAINED PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH
INDICATE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT WITH SOME MIXED HIGH CLOUDS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX/EASTERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4
FT SWELLS AROUND 12-14 SECONDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 13 SECONDS
TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
842 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 840 AM THURS...UPDATE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER
THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD CREATING HAZARDOUS
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 840 AM THURS...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE AN EXTENSION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY
CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS AROUND 12-14 SECONDS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 181242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
842 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 840 AM THURS...UPDATE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER
THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD CREATING HAZARDOUS
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 840 AM THURS...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE AN EXTENSION OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWELLS CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY
CONTINUES AT 6 FT...WITH 4 FT SWELLS AROUND 12-14 SECONDS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR THE
SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR THE
SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. NO VORT ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY BUT
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. NO VORT ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY SO NO PRECIP FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO MID 60S SOUTH COAST AND
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH
THIS PATTERN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON, AND TAPERED POPS
BACK MORE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THU...VFR IN LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE CIGS
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THU...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR
THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS BUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE OUTER WATERS
OF THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE ZONES. WAVEWATCH SEAS LOOK MORE
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL END BY 8 AM SO NO
CHANGE TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY. LONG PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 13 SECONDS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 11 SECONDS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH SHUD
BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME.
HOWEVER AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE NC COAST WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TO
NEAR SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NE OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY BACKING TO N/NW AND DIMINISHING
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180444
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WILL ISSUE UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY TO END ALL
PRECIP EXCEPT OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND
N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
IFR THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THURS
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE
WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS 5-6 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN
CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE ESE WELL FROM
DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS AND
HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY EARLY
THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE WINDS
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS
3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP









000
FXUS62 KMHX 180444
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WILL ISSUE UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY TO END ALL
PRECIP EXCEPT OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND
N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
IFR THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THURS
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE
WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS 5-6 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN
CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE ESE WELL FROM
DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS AND
HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY EARLY
THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE WINDS
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS
3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. POP/WX WAS ALSO TRIMMED BACK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ERODED WITH PRECIPITATION NOTED
ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT. SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS MAY MIGRATE TOWARD THE OBX THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...SO HAVE A CHANCE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT IN STORE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FROM
HATTERAS WEST TO DUPLIN COUNTY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S
WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
IFR THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THURS
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE
WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS 5-6 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN
CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE ESE WELL FROM
DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS AND
HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY EARLY
THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE WINDS
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS
3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. POP/WX WAS ALSO TRIMMED BACK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ERODED WITH PRECIPITATION NOTED
ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS POINT. SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS MAY MIGRATE TOWARD THE OBX THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...SO HAVE A CHANCE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT IN STORE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FROM
HATTERAS WEST TO DUPLIN COUNTY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S
WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
IFR THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THURS
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE
WINDS 10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS 5-6 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN
CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE ESE WELL FROM
DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS AND
HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY EARLY
THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE WINDS
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS
3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 172331
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS MAINLY
FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND POPS/WX. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES FROM HATTERAS WEST TO DUPLIN COUNTY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
IFR THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THURS
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS 5-6 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND
WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN CONTINUE TO
BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE ESE WELL FROM DISTANT TC. WILL
CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS AND HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY EARLY THU MORNING.
MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THU WITH
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171908
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF IFR.
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THU
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENERGY. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
3-6FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WAVEWATCH
AND SWAN CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE SE WELL
FROM DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS
AND HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY
EARLY THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE
WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF
OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...CQD/JME










000
FXUS62 KMHX 171908
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH N/NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
EASTERN US. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS 11-13C...AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. TO START THE PERIOD THE PERSISTENT EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY LIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS PATTERN
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
PREVAILING TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST ONLY IN
THE 70S.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH
INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER DRIFTS SOUTH FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PUSH
MOISTURE TOWARD EASTERN NC MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/EAST OF HIGHWAY
17/ FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. THUS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIMARILY COASTAL POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS A MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SHALLOW. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A THREAT
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT POTENTIAL OF IFR.
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIT IFR POTENTIAL HARD AGAIN LIKE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THINK IT IS OVERDONE. VFR SHOULD RETURN MID THU
MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (OR
LOWER) FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF OF THE COAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRICKY FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENERGY. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
3-6FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WAVEWATCH
AND SWAN CONTINUE TO BE 1-2FT OVERDONE WITH WAVES IN THE SE WELL
FROM DISTANT TC. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS BASED ON OBS
AND HURRICANE WAVEWATCH...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6FT BY
EARLY THU MORNING. MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THU WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN NE
WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT STRONGEST NORTH OF
OCRACOKE...WITH SEAS 3-5FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...TOUGH FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS DEPICTED IN THE
SWAN AND NWPS WAVE MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES BUT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND MAGNITUDE AND FETCH AND FLOW COUNTER TO GULFSTREAM. WILL
FORECAST SUBSIDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AS THE MODELS INDICATE
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT SW FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...CQD/JME











000
FXUS62 KMHX 171650
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER. LOW LVL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT HIGHS
GENERALLY 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSIST ANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS
10-20KT...EARLIER SURGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT TC EDOUARD OF 14-15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS. BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH STILL WELL OVERDONE ON
SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS HAVE SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND
2-4FT SOUTH. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 5 FEET. MADE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING
SCA HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...WHERE SCA CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL LEG
ONLY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 171650
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER. LOW LVL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT HIGHS
GENERALLY 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSIST ANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 PM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS
10-20KT...EARLIER SURGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT TC EDOUARD OF 14-15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS. BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH STILL WELL OVERDONE ON
SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS HAVE SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND
2-4FT SOUTH. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 5 FEET. MADE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING
SCA HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...WHERE SCA CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL LEG
ONLY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 171355
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 955 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR AM
UPDATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER. LOW LVL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT HIGHS
GENERALLY 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSIST ANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS
15-20KT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 5-15KT SOUTH. SEEING DELAYED NE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO DIMINISH
MORE TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD
OF 14-15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH SWAN
AND WAVEWATCH STILL WELL OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAVE SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. HAVE USED
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE AT 5 FEET. MADE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SCA HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...WHERE SCA CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL LEG ONLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 171355
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 955 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR AM
UPDATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER. LOW LVL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT HIGHS
GENERALLY 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSIST ANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS
15-20KT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 5-15KT SOUTH. SEEING DELAYED NE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO DIMINISH
MORE TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD
OF 14-15 SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH SWAN
AND WAVEWATCH STILL WELL OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAVE SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. HAVE USED
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE AT 5 FEET. MADE NO CHANGES TO ONGOING SCA HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...WHERE SCA CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL LEG ONLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 171057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER VORT PASSING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTANT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 14-15 SECONDS ACROSS ALSO ALL COASTAL WATERS.
BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH WAY OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAS ONLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS SAYING IT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL FEET HIGHER. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 4 FEET AND WILL
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES. FOR THE OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE LEG I CAPPED IT AT 6 FEET FROM 18Z TODAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 171057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER VORT PASSING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...MIXED VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTANT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 14-15 SECONDS ACROSS ALSO ALL COASTAL WATERS.
BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH WAY OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAS ONLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS SAYING IT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL FEET HIGHER. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 4 FEET AND WILL
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES. FOR THE OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE LEG I CAPPED IT AT 6 FEET FROM 18Z TODAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER VORT PASSING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...MIXED VFR/MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTANT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 14-15 SECONDS ACROSS ALSO ALL COASTAL WATERS.
BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH WAY OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAS ONLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS SAYING IT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL FEET HIGHER. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 4 FEET AND WILL
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES. FOR THE OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE LEG I CAPPED IT AT 6 FEET FROM 18Z TODAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER VORT PASSING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...MIXED VFR/MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTANT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 14-15 SECONDS ACROSS ALSO ALL COASTAL WATERS.
BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH WAY OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAS ONLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS SAYING IT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL FEET HIGHER. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 4 FEET AND WILL
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES. FOR THE OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE LEG I CAPPED IT AT 6 FEET FROM 18Z TODAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170409
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1209 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...JUST ISSUED NEW SET OF ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COUNTIES
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...CLOUDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE AREA MOVING EAST. TIMING BRINGS THEM INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
COVERS THIS...EXCEPT WILL UP THE POPS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS ALONG IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA. BOUNDARY SLOW TO MOVE
AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SOUTH OF AREA BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUE...FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISC...AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/BM
MARINE...JAC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170409
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1209 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM WED...JUST ISSUED NEW SET OF ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COUNTIES
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...CLOUDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE AREA MOVING EAST. TIMING BRINGS THEM INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
COVERS THIS...EXCEPT WILL UP THE POPS IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
SHOWERS ALONG IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA. BOUNDARY SLOW TO MOVE
AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SOUTH OF AREA BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUE...FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISC...AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/BM
MARINE...JAC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170136
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUE...CLOUDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA MOVING EAST. TIMING BRINGS THEM INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST COVERS THIS...EXCEPT WILL UP THE POPS IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA. BOUNDARY SLOW TO
MOVE AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SOUTH OF AREA BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUE...FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISC...AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/CQD/JAC











000
FXUS62 KMHX 162248
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS GOING WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TOO WET LATESLY SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED FOG TO THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/CQD/JAC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 162248
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS GOING WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN TOO WET LATESLY SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES LOW. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED FOG TO THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON
STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/CQD/JAC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NE NC AND CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE...JUST A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE NC WITH VERY LITTLE UPSTREAM ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SO BASED ON THIS AND HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY 65-70 DEGREES. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND UPR 60S
TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DONE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE INDICATED
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING TO OCCUR AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL REANALYZE THE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING
WITH A NE FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIKELY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RANGING FROM E TO W LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT. LONG
PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. WAVEWATCH
AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING SCA WAS TO PUSHED BACK THE
TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE. NE SURGE
10-15KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES WITH E/NE
FLOW INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD
SELY SWELL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...BM/JAC
MARINE...CQD/JAC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NE NC AND CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE...JUST A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE NC WITH VERY LITTLE UPSTREAM ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SO BASED ON THIS AND HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY 65-70 DEGREES. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND UPR 60S
TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DONE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE INDICATED
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING TO OCCUR AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL REANALYZE THE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING
WITH A NE FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIKELY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RANGING FROM E TO W LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT. LONG
PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. WAVEWATCH
AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING SCA WAS TO PUSHED BACK THE
TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE. NE SURGE
10-15KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES WITH E/NE
FLOW INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD
SELY SWELL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...BM/JAC
MARINE...CQD/JAC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161759
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
159 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH SE VA AND BACK INTO WESTERN NC. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DONE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE INDICATED
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING TO OCCUR AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL REANALYZE THE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCES.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH A NE
FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY NW/W NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND NE/S
SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WITH
BUOYS REPORTING PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161759
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
159 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH SE VA AND BACK INTO WESTERN NC. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DONE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE INDICATED
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING TO OCCUR AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL REANALYZE THE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCES.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH A NE
FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY NW/W NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND NE/S
SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WITH
BUOYS REPORTING PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161631
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH SE VA AND BACK INTO WESTERN NC. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY NW/W NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND NE/S
SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WITH
BUOYS REPORTING PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161631
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH SE VA AND BACK INTO WESTERN NC. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED FORECAST SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY NW/W NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND NE/S
SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WITH
BUOYS REPORTING PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161423
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY
REGION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED
FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING...AND BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY W/SW NORTH OF OCRACOKE
AND NW/NE SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL REACH THE WATERS DURING
THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161423
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY
REGION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS ENC TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TWEAKED
FORECAST SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MESOMODELS. SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OFF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING...AND BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE REST OF TODAY
EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
MODELS HAVE A RATHER WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET/SHOW HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES IN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW OVER THE AREA SO NOT MUCH MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED. ILL LEAN TO
FORECAST PERSISTENCE WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WED AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WED/THU WHICH
WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WED AND MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.
DESPITE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (LOW 80S) BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MON SO KEPT SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTORMS
BEGINNING MON AFTN WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT
OAJ AND EWN WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR THRU THU ALTHO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY
ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT. FRI AND SAT LOOK TO CONT WITH VFR AS
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP CHCS AND
BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM TUE...COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...GENERALLY W/SW NORTH OF OCRACOKE
AND NW/NE SOUTH WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER...LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL REACH THE WATERS DURING
THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED INTO WED NIGHT.
SWELL WILL DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS,
HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE
AND CONT THRU FRI WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA/CQD








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