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000
FXUS62 KMHX 121605
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE MAINLY TO CAPTURE LATEST T/TD AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIP SPREADING INLAND FROM THE CRYSTAL
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT THE ONSET WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH A FEW FLURRIES BUT HAS CHANGED TO
MAINLY RAIN EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND SOUTH OF US 70 WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT A PROMINENT WARM NOSE LIFTING
INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO MAINTAIN LIQUID PRECIP IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH MAINLY
SNOW FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED NE SECTIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
NRN OBX WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE MID 30S...HOWEVER RUC
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUES BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXCEPT AT THE SFC
SO EVAP COOLING ONCE PRECIP INTENSIFIES MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING WITH MAINLY SNOW FALLING. WILL LIKELY DROP
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OTHERS NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST...WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS PRED RAIN
NOW FALLING.

PREV DISC...TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO
THE S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST
AND LEAST INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE
CST AND CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST
OF MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS A MIX OVER
SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N APPEARS
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE. IN
BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT SHIFTS
N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY...THEN
OFF TO NE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CAA DEVELOPING LATE. WITH COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 15Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW
LVL MSTR AND LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FCST WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR 03Z-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS COULD SEE CONDITIONS NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL 06Z-09Z. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING
PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE S AS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...ESPCLY NRN TIER/SOUNDS SO BUMPED UP
A BIT BUT SHLD STAY BELOW SCA LVLS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS.

PREV DISC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY BUT NO
HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING
LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-
     079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/SK
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 121135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED. MDLS CONT TO
SHOW PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SRN CST/SRN OBX WILL TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN WITH MAINLY SNOW
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET FAR N. BIG CHUNK OF ERN NC WILL HAVE WINTRY
MIX FROM LATE MORN THRU THE AFTN WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING.

PREV DISC...TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO
THE S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST
AND LEAST INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE
CST AND CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST
OF MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS A MIX OVER
SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N APPEARS
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE. IN
BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT SHIFTS
N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY...THEN
OFF TO NE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CAA DEVELOPING LATE. WITH COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 15Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW
LVL MSTR AND LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FCST WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR 03Z-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS COULD SEE CONDITIONS NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL 06Z-09Z. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING
PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE S AS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...ESPCLY NRN TIER/SOUNDS SO BUMPED UP
A BIT BUT SHLD STAY BELOW SCA LVLS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS.

PREV DISC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY BUT NO
HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING
LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-
     079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 121135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED. MDLS CONT TO
SHOW PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SRN CST/SRN OBX WILL TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN WITH MAINLY SNOW
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET FAR N. BIG CHUNK OF ERN NC WILL HAVE WINTRY
MIX FROM LATE MORN THRU THE AFTN WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING.

PREV DISC...TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO
THE S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST
AND LEAST INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE
CST AND CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST
OF MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS A MIX OVER
SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N APPEARS
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE. IN
BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT SHIFTS
N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY...THEN
OFF TO NE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CAA DEVELOPING LATE. WITH COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 15Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW
LVL MSTR AND LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FCST WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR 03Z-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS COULD SEE CONDITIONS NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL 06Z-09Z. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING
PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE S AS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...ESPCLY NRN TIER/SOUNDS SO BUMPED UP
A BIT BUT SHLD STAY BELOW SCA LVLS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS.

PREV DISC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY BUT NO
HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING
LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-
     079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 121135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED. MDLS CONT TO
SHOW PRECIP BLOSSOMING OVER AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SRN CST/SRN OBX WILL TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN WITH MAINLY SNOW
POSS MIXED WITH SLEET FAR N. BIG CHUNK OF ERN NC WILL HAVE WINTRY
MIX FROM LATE MORN THRU THE AFTN WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING.

PREV DISC...TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO
THE S AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST
AND LEAST INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE
CST AND CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST
OF MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS A MIX OVER
SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N APPEARS
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE. IN
BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT SHIFTS
N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY...THEN
OFF TO NE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CAA DEVELOPING LATE. WITH COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 15Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW
LVL MSTR AND LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FCST WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR 03Z-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS COULD SEE CONDITIONS NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL 06Z-09Z. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING
PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE S AS EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...ESPCLY NRN TIER/SOUNDS SO BUMPED UP
A BIT BUT SHLD STAY BELOW SCA LVLS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS.

PREV DISC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING THEN MOVE
NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY BUT NO
HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING
LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY
REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-
     079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 120812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR
JUST WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...CONT ALL PREV WINTER HEADLINES.

TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MID
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST AND LEAST
INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CST AND
CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST OF
MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS MAINLY FROZEN
OVER SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N
APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE.
IN BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT
SHIFTS N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING REST OF
NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY. WITH
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 14Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. FCST WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 02Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE...AND COULD SEE LOW
LVL MSTR LINGERING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KT DURING PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING
THEN MOVE NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
BUT NO HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT
CROSSING LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND
HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR
JUST WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...CONT ALL PREV WINTER HEADLINES.

TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MID
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST AND LEAST
INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CST AND
CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST OF
MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS MAINLY FROZEN
OVER SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N
APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE.
IN BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT
SHIFTS N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING REST OF
NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY. WITH
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 14Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. FCST WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 02Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE...AND COULD SEE LOW
LVL MSTR LINGERING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KT DURING PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING
THEN MOVE NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
BUT NO HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT
CROSSING LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND
HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 120812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR
JUST WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...CONT ALL PREV WINTER HEADLINES.

TRICKY FORECAST WITH WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE REGION MID
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE S
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT WITH CONSENSUS SHOWING MOST NEAR THE COAST AND LEAST
INLAND. BASED ON THIS UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE CST AND
CONT LIKELY DEEP INLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREV FCST OF
MAINLY SNOW N TO RAIN SRN CST. PRECIP SHLD BEGIN AS MAINLY FROZEN
OVER SRN TIER BUT GRAD TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTN. OVER FAR N
APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...POSS MIXED WITH SLEET LATE.
IN BETWEEN IS WHERE A MIXED BAG IS EXPECTED AS WARM NOSE ALOFT
SHIFTS N THRU THE DAY. THINK SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING MOST INLAND AREAS GIVEN FCST WETBULBS. HAVE A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THIS ZONE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
APPROACHING 1/10 INCH CENTERED NEAR EWN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS DID NOT
CHANGE PREV FCST AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO POSS 3 IN NRN TIER...1/2 TO 1
INCHES IN AREAS WITH MIX AND TRACE AMOUNTS SRN CST. HIGHS LOW/MID
30S INLAND TO UPR 30S/AROUND 40 CNTRL/SRN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY END CST WITH CONT MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET N AND RAIN/SNOW S. ADDITIONAL ACCUM AFTER 0Z WILL BE
MINOR IF ANY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THRU LATE WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS ESPCLY CST. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND WITH AROUND 30/LOWER 30S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT AND SUN.
850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUN...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS 32-38 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...WHILE DEVELOPING SFC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING
THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC LOW. THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE SE STATES...AND THEN
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW INLAND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG
THE COAST MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHT WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...SO COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY....WITH PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STRONG S/SELY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...AND GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME TSTMS...POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL AREAS.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES...THEN
TUE/WED IN THE 50S. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING REST OF
NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC
LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST SOUTH OF AREA TODAY. WITH
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 14Z-
17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. FCST WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 02Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE...AND COULD SEE LOW
LVL MSTR LINGERING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KT DURING PERIOD...NE TODAY BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE S THIS MORNING
THEN MOVE NE INTO THE EVENING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY
BUT NO HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS SRN TIER. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE LOW WILL DEPART TONIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONT
CROSSING LATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT AND
HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REACH 5 TO 7 FEET OUTER WTRS BY EARLY SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT INTO EARLY SUN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 20-30KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT. ADDED CHANCE FREEZING SPRAY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN WITH VERY COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WINDS AND
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO RE-DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW MONDAY...THEN
LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STRONG SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
TUE. DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH YET...BUT S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY. CAPPED SEAS AT 8-17FT FOR NOW...WAVEWATCH IS BUILDING
SEAS ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS TO 23FT. STRONG S/SE WINDS COULD
BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES TO COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120624
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEW PT
TRENDS WITH UPDATE. CLR SKIES WILL PREVAIL A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS LATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE LATE EVENING PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE
STORM AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING REST OF NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 14Z...THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. SHRT WV DIVING
IN FROM NW WILL INDUCE SFC LOW PRES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG JUST
SOUTH OF AREA TODAY. WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...PCPN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS SNOW 14Z-17Z...THEN TRANSITION TO MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FRZNG RAIN S WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET N. VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR DURING AFTN AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY EVENING. FCST WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
02Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW
MOVES TO NE...AND COULD SEE LOW LVL MSTR LINGERING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING PERIOD...NE TODAY
BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N/NE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS AT 2-4 FEET OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY INCREASE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/HSA
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/HSA/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120304
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE LATE EVENING PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE
STORM AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE SHIFTING TO EWN.
ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT IS
SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO HAVE JUST
INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE DETAIL WILL
BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N/NE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS AT 2-4 FEET OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY INCREASE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/BM/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120304
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE LATE EVENING PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE
STORM AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE SHIFTING TO EWN.
ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT IS
SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO HAVE JUST
INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE DETAIL WILL
BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N/NE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS AT 2-4 FEET OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY INCREASE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/BM/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 120304
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE LATE EVENING PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE
STORM AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE SHIFTING TO EWN.
ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT IS
SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO HAVE JUST
INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE DETAIL WILL
BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N/NE
OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS AT 2-4 FEET OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY INCREASE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/BM/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM AS
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S AREA- WIDE AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE SHIFTING TO EWN.
ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT IS
SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO HAVE JUST
INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE DETAIL WILL
BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LAND/BUOY OBS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND WAVES 3-5 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MORE N/NE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS AT 3-5 FEET NOW DROP OFF TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/BM/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 120008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM AS
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S AREA- WIDE AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING
AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE SHIFTING TO EWN.
ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...IT IS
SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO HAVE JUST
INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE DETAIL WILL
BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS
TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LAND/BUOY OBS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15
KNOTS AND WAVES 3-5 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME MORE N/NE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE A BIT ON FRIDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
SEAS AT 3-5 FEET NOW DROP OFF TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/LEP/CTC
MARINE...HSA/BM/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 112124
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
424 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM
AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS...THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE FORECAST
GETS MESSY WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE CENTRAL CWA AND MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST. IF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ARRIVE BY EARLY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOW FROM SOME OF THE VARIOUS WRF
MODELS AND NAM12...IT WILL BE FALLING INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR. AS A
RESULT...ALSO HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. A NUMBER OF COMPLICATING FACTORS WITH THIS FORECAST. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY THE CANADIAN SHOWS SWATH OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. AS IS USUAL IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...ANY SMALL
DEVIATION IN THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE CORRIDOR AND CONSEQUENT AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH SOME WARMING INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LIKELY RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF STATES MONDAY AND CROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1223-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY`S HIGHS: MID/UPPER 30S...AND THEN UPPER
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES MOST LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK RECORD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING AND LOW MAX VALUE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.CURRENT
MODEL RUN FOR GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING...STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW
TRACKING INLAND...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS
SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE WX...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE
STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S/LOW 50S
MONDAY... 50S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE
SHIFTING TO EWN. ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO
HAVE JUST INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE
DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING
LATE AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE TO RETURN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW LIFTS FROM THE GULF STATES.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM THURSDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE CENTRAL WATERS...WHICH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME MORE N/NE LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE A BIT ON FRIDAY AT
GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AT 3-5 FEET NOW DROP OFF TO 2-4
FEET FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGH/EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO
SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT INCREASE BACK AGAIN AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER ON
MONDAY...BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT...THEN ON TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/BM
CLIMATE...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 111729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER
40S AT BEST...WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COUNTIES FROM BEAUFORT/MARTIN EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS FOR A SWATH OF 1-3 INCH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/ICE....

AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE
SHIFTING TO EWN. ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO
HAVE JUST INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE
DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING
LATE AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET AT SOME OF THE OFFSHORE PLATFORMS AND WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 111729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER
40S AT BEST...WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COUNTIES FROM BEAUFORT/MARTIN EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS FOR A SWATH OF 1-3 INCH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/ICE....

AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE
SHIFTING TO EWN. ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO
HAVE JUST INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE
DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING
LATE AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET AT SOME OF THE OFFSHORE PLATFORMS AND WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 111729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER
40S AT BEST...WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COUNTIES FROM BEAUFORT/MARTIN EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS FOR A SWATH OF 1-3 INCH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/ICE....

AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
GIVEN TEMPS WILL BE AOB FREEZING TO START...HAVE ALL TAF SITES
STARTING AS -SN KNOWING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE VSBYS/CIGS LOWERING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TO MVFR. CURRENT THINKING IS OAJ TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH THIS ZONE
SHIFTING TO EWN. ISO/PGV WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
POINT...IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS AS TO THE WX TYPE AND TIMING. SO
HAVE JUST INTRODUCED -SN AT THIS POINT WITH THE ASSUMPTION MORE
DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING
LATE AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET AT SOME OF THE OFFSHORE PLATFORMS AND WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 111652
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER
40S AT BEST...WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COUNTIES FROM BEAUFORT/MARTIN EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS FOR A SWATH OF 1-3 INCH SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/ICE....

AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WV MOVES IN FROM NW. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET AT SOME OF THE OFFSHORE PLATFORMS AND WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ044-079-090>095-098-104.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ029-045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 111443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER
40S AT BEST...WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPS WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WV MOVES IN FROM NW. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET AT SOME OF THE OFFSHORE PLATFORMS AND WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORIES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 111153
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CORE OF COLD AIR MASS WILL BE DEEPEST
OVER AREA TODAY...THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS COLDER THAN WED
EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS MAINLY
38-42 ACROSS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPES WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WV MOVES IN FROM NW. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ON-GOING CAA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ACROSS WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTN INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST OVER OUTER
WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING...BUT ENDING OVER PAMLICO SOUND EARLY
THIS AFTN AND ADJUSTED SCA ENDING TIME THERE ACCORDINGLY.

NWPS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH CURRENT SEAS 6-8 FT OFF OREGON INLET
AND DIAMOND SHOALS...AND IT IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT SRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND NRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 111153
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CORE OF COLD AIR MASS WILL BE DEEPEST
OVER AREA TODAY...THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS COLDER THAN WED
EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS MAINLY
38-42 ACROSS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPES WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING INTO THIS EVENING AS A
COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WV MOVES IN FROM NW. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK HEATING
TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ON-GOING CAA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ACROSS WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTN INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST OVER OUTER
WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING...BUT ENDING OVER PAMLICO SOUND EARLY
THIS AFTN AND ADJUSTED SCA ENDING TIME THERE ACCORDINGLY.

NWPS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH CURRENT SEAS 6-8 FT OFF OREGON INLET
AND DIAMOND SHOALS...AND IT IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT SRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND NRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...CORE OF COLD AIR MASS WILL BE DEEPEST OVER
AREA TODAY...THUS EXPECT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS COLDER THAN WED EVEN
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS MAINLY 38-42
ACROSS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXCELLENT RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
ATMOS. SOME CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATE AS WEAK WAA
DEVELOPES WITH CHANNELED SHRT WV MOVES IN FROM NW...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO LOW-MID 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPR 20S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...ON-GOING CAA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W-NW WINDS
ACROSS WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SPEEDS
EXPECTED AFTN INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST OVER OUTER
WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING...BUT ENDING OVER PAMLICO SOUND EARLY
THIS AFTN AND ADJUSTED SCA ENDING TIME THERE ACCORDINGLY.

NWPS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH CURRENT SEAS 6-8 FT OFF OREGON INLET
AND DIAMOND SHOALS...AND IT IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FCST. HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT SRN WATERS THIS AFTN AND NRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED BY
06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED BY
06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 110830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED BY
06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FRIDAY.

CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING QPF AMTS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS
AND QPF AMTS...HIGHEST ALONG THE E OF HWY 17. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THEN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE
DEVELOPING ALOFT. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...FROM SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO CRYSTAL COAST EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO PRED RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY CHANGE BACK TO WINTRY MIX
AS IT ENDS. INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ADDED LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET. THINK 0.5-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...AND LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. THOUGH ANY MIXING
WITH SLEET WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE PRECIP COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM NOSE DEVELOPS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SE
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC LOW.
MODELS NOW TRACKING THE LOW INLAND...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NC. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO COULD SEE SOME
TSTMS...POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE...THOUGH WILL NOT MENTION IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS MON...THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE MON NIGHT AND TUE. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS
-RA/-SN MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES
AND TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
TERMINALS. STILL A CHALLENGING PTYPE FORECAST BUT THINK ALL
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX
DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUM
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE WINDS AOB 15KT FRI WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS
TO DEVELOP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-9FT. WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE SUN AS HIGH CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SUN
NIGHT N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING SE 10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5FT LATE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110551
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED BY
06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY...DIMINISHING LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED
BY 06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CLEAR BY 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 102349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
BRISK WESTERLY WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO
25 DEGREES EXPECTED INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CLEAR BY 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7
FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 102349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
BRISK WESTERLY WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO
25 DEGREES EXPECTED INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CLEAR BY 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7
FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 102349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
649 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
BRISK WESTERLY WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO
25 DEGREES EXPECTED INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CLEAR BY 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7
FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 102131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING US WITH A CLEAR COLD AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT
AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH
A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 20S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABLISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF HWY 17
WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF HWY 70
IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY A
MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP MODELS
HAVE DEPICTED THE FLUCTUATION IN WIND SPEED QUITE WELL TODAY WITH
A BIT OF AN AFTERNOON LULL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS
INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 102131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING LEAVING US WITH A CLEAR COLD AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT
AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH
A CONSENSUS BLEND OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 20S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABLISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF HWY 17
WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF HWY 70
IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY A
MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP MODELS
HAVE DEPICTED THE FLUCTUATION IN WIND SPEED QUITE WELL TODAY WITH
A BIT OF AN AFTERNOON LULL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN WINDS THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BUT WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS
INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT AS FORECAST
BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A
BIT THIS MORNING AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE AND
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AT 4 TO 6 FEET FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT AS FORECAST
BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A
BIT THIS MORNING AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE AND
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AT 4 TO 6 FEET FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...SKIES REMAIN SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET OR SO...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT AS FORECAST
BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A
BIT THIS MORNING AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE AND
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AT 4 TO 6 FEET FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 101453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
953 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE IMPROVED SKY
COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND
5000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL
BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S AND
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND DARK PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 6-9 FOOT
RANGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. LIKEWISE THE
E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS USUAL
WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH OBSERVED SEAS
AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST
WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING
BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 101453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
953 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE IMPROVED SKY
COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND
5000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL
BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S AND
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND DARK PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 6-9 FOOT
RANGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. LIKEWISE THE
E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS USUAL
WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH OBSERVED SEAS
AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST
WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING
BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
953 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY A FEW CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE IMPROVED SKY
COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AROUND
5000 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE DAY WILL
BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 40S AND
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AROUND DARK PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEAS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 6-9 FOOT
RANGE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. LIKEWISE THE
E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AS USUAL
WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH OBSERVED SEAS
AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST
WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING
BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101159
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN
U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF
COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WRN AND NRN SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS
AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CAA...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS 41-45 INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.


/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101159
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN
U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF
COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WRN AND NRN SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS
AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CAA...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS 41-45 INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.


/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 101159
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN
U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF
COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WRN AND NRN SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS
AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST
PARTIAL INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
CAA...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS 41-45 INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CURRENT SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...THEN ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
SCT-BKN SCU AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY
CIGS ABV 3K FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTN. DRY AND MIXED ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.


/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
513 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN
TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS AND
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CAA...BUT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS 41-45
INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 101013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
513 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN
TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS AND
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CAA...BUT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS 41-45
INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS INVADES EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEVELOP
A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET AND POSSIBLY -FZRA COULD
ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI WITH HIGHER POPS
E OF HWY 17...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK
OF THE LOW COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST GREATLY AND THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR OUTER BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN
TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS AND
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CAA...BUT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS 41-45
INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE WARM NOSE...SO SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP. INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THIKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR OUTER
BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH BASE OF UPR TROF OVER ERN U.S...AFFECTING ERN NC AGAIN
TODAY. AFTER BAND OF SCU/AC MOVES OFF COAST NEXT FEW
HOURS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
ADDITIONAL SCU/AC DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT MAINLY WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. VERY DRY LOW LVLS AND
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT PCPN THREAT. AT LEAST PARTIAL
INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CAA...BUT
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGS COLDER THAN ON TUESDAY. HIGHS 41-45
INLAND AND AROUND 40 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BASE OF UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA THIS EVENING...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW LVLS
WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH PERSISTENT WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WHICH WILL
INHIBIT MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
STILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 OBX.

&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE WARM NOSE...SO SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP. INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTN THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 20-25 KT IN SCA AREA FOR 6-12
HOURS BUT WITH EXPECTED INCREASE PLAN TO KEEP SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EXPECTED AND
WESTERLY WINDS LOWERING COMBINED SEAS AS WELL FOR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. AS USUAL WITH THIS PATTERN...WW3 HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
WITH OBSERVED SEAS AS NWPS IS TOO HIGH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHT FCST WITH WW3 AND WILL INDICATE HEIGHTS
SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT THEN INCREASING BACK UP TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST GDNC IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THIKING OF DIMINISHING E-NE SWELL COMBINING WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR OUTER
BANKS AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100813
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU INTO FRI AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THU...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SE STATES STRENGTHENS MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TRENDING MUCH WETTER FOR FRI. THERMAL
PROFILES...CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES AND SREF PLUMES SUPPORT
PREDOMINANT PTYPE AS -SN WITH MAYBE A MIX OF -SN/-RA ALONG THE
COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE WARM NOSE...SO SOME
SLEET COULD ALSO BE MIXED IN WITH THE PRECIP. INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA FRI...AND ADDED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA...LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO
-20C BY SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. SOME RECORD LOW MAX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 35-40 DEGREES SAT...AND THEN UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. THE OUTER BANKS COULD SEE
SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF SAT INTO SUN.
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THEN SFC
LOW. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN
MIX MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TEMPS LOOK
TO REBOUND AND RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO...HIGHS MON 40-50 DEGREES AND
TUE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KT THU AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NC
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...UNSETTLED BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU AND FRI.
GUSTY WNW WINDS 15-25KT AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL START OFF THU...BUT
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE SEAS DROP
BELOW 6FT BY THU EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE NC COAST FRIDAY...WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW, INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR
FRI. THOUGH WILL KEEP AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9FT.
WINDS WILL PEAK SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100559
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADKUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100559
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADKUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 100559
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ADKUSTED SKY COVER FCST FOR MORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT GRIDS.
AC DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND PROGGED TO
MOVE OFF COAST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
AREA REST OF NIGHT AFTER THIS CLOUDINESS PUSHES OFFSHORE. DEW PTS
ARE DROPPING INTO TEENS INLAND BUT WESTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH WILL
KEEP ATMOS MIXED OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD MIN TEMPS IN UPR 20S INLAND
AND LOW-MID 30S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. AC DECK WILL MOVE OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...AND WEST
WINDS 5-10 MPH AND DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN SCU
AND AC DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH ANY CIGS ABV 3K
FT. CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 100201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEPLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 06Z. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 092318
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
618 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION HAS TOUCHED OFF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
REGION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO THESE SHOWERS
UNTIL AROUND 03Z THEN INDICATES DRYING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER
06Z. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AND 10 TO 20 MPH COAST. THESE WINDS
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S OUTER BANKS WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING. SKIES
AFE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z BUT DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 10 FOOT
SEAS IN A COMBINATION OF 14-15 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORTER WIND
WAVE. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 092054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORNLY HANGING ON
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
HAVE BEEN REACHING THE GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL
CARRY A SMALL POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR AS LOWS
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH LOW/MID 30S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE BETWEEN 750 AND 850 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES SHOULD LEAD
TO A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S WITH WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
RISE...BUT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. 850MB TEMPERATURE STILL REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...THEREFORE LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM
CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE 09/12Z GFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF IS HAVING A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS OF -RA/-SN MIX...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COLDER/DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BY
SUNDAY BTW -20C TO -15C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE
1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY
HIGHS...UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH SATURDAY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION 20% POP FOR RAIN...MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY... AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND LOW 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 5000-8000 FOOT RANGE. THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.../
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 7 TO 12 FOOT
SEAS COMBINED WITH 14-15 SECOND SWELLS AT THE BUOYS. THE LATEST
3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. THERE WILL BE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW
WINDS 20-30 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...LATEST PREDICTED WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES
DURING THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AROUND MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 3 FEET...DOWN A BIT FROM THIS MORNING`S TIDE
WHICH PRODUCED SOME MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. EARLIER
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER BANKS TO RUN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND THE NEXT TWO HIGH
TIDES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX





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