Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 230522
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLY. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
INLAND WE WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221955
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221847
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A
DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE AGAIN
REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR CLIMO...LOW
TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221646
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG










000
FXUS62 KMHX 221646
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG










000
FXUS62 KMHX 221629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221629
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUNDS COUNTIES WITH CLOUD COVER...LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH MID
LEVEL TROUGH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1228 PM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN NORTHERN WATERS...15
TO 20 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
HAVE CEILINGS OF 4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA
KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VS BY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SAC HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NW PS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NW PS/WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM130-131-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AM150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
HAVE CEILINGS OF 4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA
KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VS BY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SAC HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NW PS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NW PS/WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM130-131-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AM150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AM156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/JME
MARINE...BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
ANOTHER SURGE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE
MID ATLANTIC SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY
WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT GALE
GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 221045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OFF THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30
MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES
AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE MID 60S,
COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
20-22 KTS AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL
HI-BASED CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220721
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE THROUGH
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S, COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE
AGAIN REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 220647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE THROUGH
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL PRODUCE INTERVALS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY (TO 25 TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST) AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERVALS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S, COOLEST NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE/COASTAL SECTIONS THRU MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE ESP OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT A
LIGHT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING INLAND AND KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE BEACHES
IN PROXIMITY OT WARMER WATER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORECE IN GUSTS OVER NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING BUT WILL
STAY WITH HIGH END SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT
GALE GUST DURATION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT TODAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS
WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220526
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THRU VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GRAZING NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PASSED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HASS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220526
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LOW DIVING SE THRU VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE GRAZING NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
PASSED JUST OFF THE COAST. LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPIN ABOUT AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-22 KTS
AND CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE AFTN. ALSO SCT/BKN DIURNAL HI-BASED
CU/SC WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING/UPPER COOLING TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HASS PASSED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING
NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220231
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1031 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NC CURRENTLY. DID HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
BUT THEY ARE PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND ARE WIDELY SCATTERED.
MADE MINOR POP TWEAK BACK TO 30 ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA. HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND IT. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY
WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT
LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220231
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1031 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NC CURRENTLY. DID HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
BUT THEY ARE PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND ARE WIDELY SCATTERED.
MADE MINOR POP TWEAK BACK TO 30 ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA. HIGH
BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND IT. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY
WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT
LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212330
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 730PM TUESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHR THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP...SKY
COVER...AND TEMPS TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS. DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
SCALED BACK POPS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE
AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WENT NO
HIGHR THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA AND ANY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND
LIGHT.  MORE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT OVER
THE AREA TO REFLECT THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OBSERVED
JUST TO OUR WEST THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE...JUST
MINOR TWEAKS IN THE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NW AROUND
20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RSB/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...RSB/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWN SLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS...LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. MORE
CONFIDENT THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN ZONES AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
WIDESPREAD SELF DESTRUCT STRATOCUMULUS WITH ANY INSOLATION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MED RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FCST THINKING. THE LOW PRES
SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE DEEPENING WHILE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS 30-35 MPH FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN
OBX COULD SEE SCT RAIN SHOWERS WED EVENING DUE TO MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN PLACE. ENS QPF FIELDS AMONGST NAEFS/SREF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.

THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN THUR AND
SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NON-
EVENTFUL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP...ONLY A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...EXPECTING A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
CLIMO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HAVE HEDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS
MORE IN LINE WITH ECM ENSMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS
THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FG OR BR IN LOW
SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO NW AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
LOOKOUT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HEADLINES EXCEPT TO EXTEND
THE ENDING TIME OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS THROUGH FRI MORNING. A
TIGHT NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS WED EVENING THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OR EXTENT TO UPGRADE HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL DRY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN
A LITTLE HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST
NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JME/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 211730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
130 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WED/...
AS OF 130PM TUESDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A DEEP
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT
HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTWARD BY EARLY MORNING. LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NW FLOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211601
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS FORECAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT
COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THRU THIS
EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR
20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211411
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...SHOWER THREAT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS HAS
ENDED FOR THE DAY AS DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS
EASTERN NC. WITH FULL INSOLATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO USHER YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT COULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU
THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO
NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/JME/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 210754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
AND BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL
POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
AND BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL
POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 210710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
310 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
AND BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL
POOL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210530
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS GRAZING THE COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH RESIDES. ALSO A BAND OF VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCD WITH UPPER TROF APPROACHES DEEP
INLAND AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT MOST PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AS
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH LIFTS NE. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SW SFC
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG AT PGV POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OUTER PORTIONS OF
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GDNC. REST
OF FCST ON TRACK WITH SRLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING W AROUND 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CGG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210530
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS GRAZING THE COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH RESIDES. ALSO A BAND OF VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCD WITH UPPER TROF APPROACHES DEEP
INLAND AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT MOST PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AS
THE WEAK SFC TROUGH LIFTS NE. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND A LIGHT SW SFC
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WED/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. A SHORT INTERVAL OF
IFR FOG AT PGV POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCOMING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING BNDRY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SHUD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHALLOW FOG. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL
SECTIONS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH SHUD REMAIN EAST THE TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
THRU THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND ASSOCD
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OUTER PORTIONS OF
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GDNC. REST
OF FCST ON TRACK WITH SRLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING W AROUND 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CGG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 210214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AS MODELS PREDICTED...SCT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CLIP MAINLY CRYSTAL COAST AND OUTER BANKS S
OF OREGON INLET...AND INCREASED POPS TO 30% THOSE AREAS REST OF
NIGHT WITH 20% JUST INLAND OF THERE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OUTER PORTIONS OF
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GDNC. REST
OF FCST ON TRACK WITH SRLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING W AROUND 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AS MODELS PREDICTED...SCT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CLIP MAINLY CRYSTAL COAST AND OUTER BANKS S
OF OREGON INLET...AND INCREASED POPS TO 30% THOSE AREAS REST OF
NIGHT WITH 20% JUST INLAND OF THERE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OUTER PORTIONS OF
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GDNC. REST
OF FCST ON TRACK WITH SRLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING W AROUND 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 210214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AS MODELS PREDICTED...SCT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CLIP MAINLY CRYSTAL COAST AND OUTER BANKS S
OF OREGON INLET...AND INCREASED POPS TO 30% THOSE AREAS REST OF
NIGHT WITH 20% JUST INLAND OF THERE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY OUTER PORTIONS OF
NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL GDNC. REST
OF FCST ON TRACK WITH SRLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING W AROUND 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 202357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ALL LATEST
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ALONG COAST 00Z-06Z WITH
ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM W...THUS NO CHANGE
TO SLIGHT CHC POPS. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE SCU DEVELOPING OVER
ERN HALF OF AREA...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN 50S INLAND AND 60S OBX.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 202357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ALL LATEST
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ALONG COAST 00Z-06Z WITH
ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM W...THUS NO CHANGE
TO SLIGHT CHC POPS. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE SCU DEVELOPING OVER
ERN HALF OF AREA...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN 50S INLAND AND 60S OBX.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 202015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUE/...
AS OF 130PM MONDAY...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND A WEAK COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO
HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT EWN/OAJ. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. FOG OVERNIGHT
SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 202015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUE/...
AS OF 130PM MONDAY...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND A WEAK COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO
HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT EWN/OAJ. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. FOG OVERNIGHT
SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 201732
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1221 PM MON...A FEW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING
FORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUE/...
AS OF 130PM MONDAY...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND A WEAK COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO
HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT EWN/OAJ. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. FOG OVERNIGHT
SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM MON...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND ALONG THE COAST. AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...CGG/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201732
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1221 PM MON...A FEW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING
FORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUE/...
AS OF 130PM MONDAY...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND A WEAK COASTAL
LOW WILL DEVELOP. FEEL SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...SO
HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT EWN/OAJ. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. FOG OVERNIGHT
SEEMS LIMITED GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FLOW ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM MON...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND ALONG THE COAST. AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...CGG/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 201626
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1226 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1221 PM MON...A FEW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING
FORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM MON...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND ALONG THE COAST. AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 201626
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1226 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1221 PM MON...A FEW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING
FORMS ALONG THE COAST AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1225 PM MON...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND ALONG THE COAST. AS
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE AND ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE...ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
FORMING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 929 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING SHIFTING OVER THE WATERS. MARINE OBS SHOWING SOME SITES HAVE
SHIFTED TO SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THEM. EXPECT
ALL THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD










000
FXUS62 KMHX 201344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE AND ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE...ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
FORMING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 929 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING SHIFTING OVER THE WATERS. MARINE OBS SHOWING SOME SITES HAVE
SHIFTED TO SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THEM. EXPECT
ALL THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP WIND OVER THE WATERS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTER WATERS
MAY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. MAY EVEN SEE A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY OVER SOME
SECTIONS AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD











000
FXUS62 KMHX 201115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS
FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY
START IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SSW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S WITH LATE
ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 201115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS
FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY
START IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SSW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S WITH LATE
ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 200751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AS FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
INLAND AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SSW. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW
70S WITH LATE ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG ALREADY AFFECTING TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUNRISE. THE SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD










000
FXUS62 KMHX 200751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AS FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
INLAND AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SSW. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW
70S WITH LATE ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG ALREADY AFFECTING TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUNRISE. THE SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 200751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AS FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER
INLAND AREAS, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SSW. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW
70S WITH LATE ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG ALREADY AFFECTING TAF LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
SUNRISE. THE SHALLOW FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities