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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN
LATER TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES (KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/TL
MARINE...HSA/CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN
LATER TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES (KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/TL
MARINE...HSA/CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301112
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AT KPGV AND MVFR
ELSEWHERE. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TH DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN LATER
TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301112
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AT KPGV AND MVFR
ELSEWHERE. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TH DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN LATER
TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301112
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AT KPGV AND MVFR
ELSEWHERE. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TH DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN LATER
TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301112
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM SUNDAY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A FEW PATCHES OF FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
SHORTLY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AT KPGV AND MVFR
ELSEWHERE. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TH DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. AS RAIN SPREADS IN LATER
TONIGHT...WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(KEWN/KOAJ).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 10-12 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE NE/E
THIS AFTERNOON THEN S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300757
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A NICE PLUME OF
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT
BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL UNTIL AN INCREASE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
FLORIDA...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY
SATURATED AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH JUST
A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.
LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...THEN TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO E NC. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE WITH RAISING POPS TO LIKELIES ATTM DUE TO SOME REMAINING
MODEL VARIABILITY. THE 31/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST
SOLN...THOUGH GFS REMAINS DRY. THE ECM CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE CMC... AND THE NAM TO A LESSER EXTENT...SO FELT RAISING
POPS TO 50 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF MONDAY SEEMS WARRANTED. ECM ENS
MOS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 40-50 POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...AND EVEN
INTO TUESDAY. LAYER MIXING RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUE AS STREAMLINES CONVERGE ON E NC. BEST LIFT APPEARS
TO BE MON/MON NIGHT...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS
TIME...TAPERING TO SMALL CHANCES ON TUE AS UPR RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONLY REAL MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEING
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE FOR INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A
GENERAL 20 POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS 85-90 AND LOWS 70-
75...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS...DESPITE CALM TO
NEARLY CALM WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT WITH SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIT OR MISS DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE GENERALLY N/NE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS AROUND DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5
FEET WITH SOME 10-12 SECOND SWELLS. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO
MORE NE/E THIS AFTERNOON AND S BY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE. SW FLOW INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING W EARLY
TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR WED WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS POTENTIAL WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300427
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION WITH LINE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPRAD HIGH CLOUDINESS...DESPITE CALM TO NEARLY
CALM WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM
SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND
MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH N/NE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECT GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE WITH A DECENT 10-11 SECOND SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE.
EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300427
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION WITH LINE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPRAD HIGH CLOUDINESS...DESPITE CALM TO NEARLY
CALM WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM
SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND
MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH N/NE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECT GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE WITH A DECENT 10-11 SECOND SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE.
EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300427
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1227 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION WITH LINE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPRAD HIGH CLOUDINESS...DESPITE CALM TO NEARLY
CALM WINDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM
SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT AND
MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SUNDAY...WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHT WITH N/NE 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECT GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE WITH A DECENT 10-11 SECOND SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE.
EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMP/DEW
PT TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS AREA FROM SW AS EXPECTED.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH
PRES TO THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE
WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY
OVER WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE THE NORTHERN
GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE INCREASE OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC
CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE FOR LATEST HOURLY TEMP/DEW
PT TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS AREA FROM SW AS EXPECTED.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH
PRES TO THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE
WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY
OVER WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE THE NORTHERN
GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE INCREASE OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC
CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292259
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DROP SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG
COAST EARLY...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR MOSTLY CLR NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND UPDATED HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT TRENDS. BREAK IN CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STILL EXPECT
INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF LIGHT
SHRA THAT AFFECTED KHSE AROUND 3 PM HAS DISSIPATED AND PCPN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS WEAK LOW MOVES TO NE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH
PRES TO THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE
WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY
OVER WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE THE NORTHERN
GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE INCREASE OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC
CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 292259
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
659 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO DROP SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG
COAST EARLY...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR MOSTLY CLR NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND UPDATED HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT TRENDS. BREAK IN CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STILL EXPECT
INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF LIGHT
SHRA THAT AFFECTED KHSE AROUND 3 PM HAS DISSIPATED AND PCPN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS WEAK LOW MOVES TO NE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH
PRES TO THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE
WILL MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY
OVER WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE THE NORTHERN
GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE INCREASE OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC
CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE WILL
MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY OVER
WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...BVM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONT AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N SETTLES S OVER THE AREA. WEAK LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SE WILL
MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THIS SHLD KEEP SHRA MAINLY OVER
WATER OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS WITH LOWER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES AND ASSOC AREA OF MIN PRECIP
WTR WILL GRAD SLIDE OFF THE CST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF TIL EVENING SO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 80S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNW WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE
STATES. ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF ECMWF
VERIFIES COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SCT SHOWER/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST FRI AND SAT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...GRDNT WL LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DRIFT NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. WILL SEE
THE NE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS CURRENTLY GRAD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONT OVER THE AREA
SUN...POSS SLIDING OFF THE CST LATE. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW THRU MID
DAY BECOMING VARIABLE TO SE LATE. SEAS WILL CONT 3 TO 5 FT THRU
THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...OVERALL NICE AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SSW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...BECOMING
W EARLY TUE THEN RETURNING TO SSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR
WED WITH VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SSE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 1-3FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...BVM/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291709
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT....HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THROUGH OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE THE
INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY UNDER BKN/OVC CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BVM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291638
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1238 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT CONTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA ARE A BIT CLOSER TO
OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT MAJORITY WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS
MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT
FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH GUSTY NE WINDS CONT ESPCLY
FROM CAPE HAT S.

PREV DISC...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED
FRONT CONTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA
ARE A BIT CLOSER TO OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT
MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN
NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG OFFSHORE STALLED
FRONT CONTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHRA OVER THE WTRS THIS MORN. SHRA
ARE A BIT CLOSER TO OBX TODAY AND A FEW MAY CLIP NEAR CAPE HAT BUT
MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER WATER. SATL SHOWS GOOD DEAL OF HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE SW AND MDLS MOVE THIS UPR LVL MOISTURE N ACROSS ERN
NC THIS AFTN. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
TODAY WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CONT DECENT NE WINDS
TODAY BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND LOW TO THE SE. SPEEDS WILL CONT
AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BEST WINDS OVER CNTRL AND SRN TIER. SEAS
WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5 FT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KT
TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS NE AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/CTC/TL
MARINE...RF/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291128
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST OFF
HATTERAS AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TODAY...OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY LOW/MID 80S WITH PLEASANTLY LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGES TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS JUST OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH
RESPECT TO REMNANTS OF ERIKA AND HER POTENTIAL RAINS MAKING INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE.

SUNDAY...STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING RELATIVELY DRY BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT
ENSUES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S WITH TD`S IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT IN FCST THINKING OCCURS AS EARLY AS SUN
NIGHT...AS NOW APPEARING THAT MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY INTERACT WITH
A NORTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CONUS.
29/12Z ECMWF ENSMOS WAS INDICATING HIGHER POPS...AND THE WETTER
TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 30/00Z RUN. THE CMC AND NAM ARE ON
BOARD WITH THIS SOLN AS WELL...THOUGH THE GFS STILL INDICATES MAINLY
DRY FCST. WILL RAISE POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT LATE SUN NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE TREND TOWARDS WETTER. WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELIES AS
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY DEVELOP.

MONDAY...CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH POPS...THOUGH
CAPPED AT 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING WITH
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. HAVE LOWERED MAX T`S SLIGHTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP...NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S. BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGH WITH TD`S INTO THE 70S...SO SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT EACH DAY. TEMP TREND WILL WARM AS THICKNESSES AND MOS GUID
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL INCLUDE MVFR LATER
TONIGHT WHICH IS DEPICTED BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER TOWARD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR FOR SUNDAY...THEN INC SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MAY BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS TO SUB VFR
OR SUB MVFR. MAINLY VFR BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD OCNL BRING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT FG/BR COULD BE AN
ISSUE AS WELL DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. WILL SEE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET
WITH 10-11 SECOND SWELL ENERGY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT NE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY... THEN VEERS SW SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON...WITH THIS GENERAL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290428
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST WITH ALL POPS OFFSHORE AND
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MOST LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S
INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. DECENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG OR
STRATUS AT BAY TONIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24
HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS
MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS
BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING CALM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
STAY FAR OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO THE VERY
OUTER MOST WATERS WITH WX OVER LAND. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS OVERALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
231 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN
HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NE OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE
OFFSHORE. SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES
TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20
KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE 20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH WINDS TOMM AND BASED
ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE
FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONT TO WORK IN
FROM THE NW. SHRA REMAINING WELL OFF THE COAST SO DROPPED POPS
OBX. LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT MORE CST WITH PC SKIES EXPECTED.
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...VFR SHOULD CONT TO DOMINATE. HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTUREOFFSHORE.
SCT CU THIS AFTN SHLD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONT TO STREAM NE OVER
REGION BUT LIKELY THIN/SCT ENUF FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPTS DROPPING OFF INLAND AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING
SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT FOG. CONT VFR SAT WITH MCLR TO PC
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281311
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...CURRENT RDR SHOWS SHRA WELL OFF THE COAST
AND LATEST RAP/HRRR TEND TO KEEP SHRA E OF COAST THRU THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS DROPPED POPS FOR MAJORITY OF CST WITH JUST A BIT
NEAR CAPE HAT. SATL SHOWS MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY SO
SIGNIF REDUCED INIT SKY COVER AND LOWERED LATER IN DAY AS WELL
WITH MOST AREAS AVERAGING OUT PC. NO SIGNIF CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...GRDNT PINCHED A BIT ALONG THE CST BETWEEN
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE...THIS WILL KEEP
NE WINDS GOING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH NO CHANGES TO FCST.

PREV DISC...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE PAMLICO
SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A WEAK LOW
CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281102
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH
ONLY MINIMAL POPS NEAR THE COAST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FILTER IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...CONTINUED VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. WHILE THERE COULD BE A PATCH OR TWO OF BRIEF
MVFR FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO...THINK THE DURATION
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THE
PAMLICO SOUNDS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENERALLY
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS PERSIST AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH A
WEAK LOW CONTINUING OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST AND
JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER AIR WITH LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FILTER
IN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND WILL KEEP JUST A 20
PERCENT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TODAY. WITH
PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
INLAND AND MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST. AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 70S COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GLOBAL MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE
COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH THE NAM WHICH BRINGS STRONGER NLY FLOW
AND A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING A
DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FOR LATE AUGUST.

MODELS ALSO TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA, WHICH NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. 00Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
SOMEWHAT, TAKING ERIKA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS NOW GETTING INTO THE
MODELS WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE BUT WOULD LIKE TO
SEE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME. SO, AT THIS TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRES NORTH
OF THE REGION AND ERIKA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. HAVE POPS NEAR
CLIMO WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NC WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDTIONS WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ISOL SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY ISOL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COTINUE ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WINDS ARE IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER ALL
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRES LIFTING NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE INCREASED NE WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...NOW AROUND 10-20 KT SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN
DESCENT AGREEMENT BRINGING SEAS TO 3-5 FT AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SINCE THIS OCCURS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT THAT
HIGH WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT WINDS
TO SHIFT TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THEN TO S/SW MONDAY
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
5 FT SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH TS ERIKA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
TAKES IT INTO FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS E/SE WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT, HOWEVER
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AS MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS NOW OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE HRRR AND
RUC ARE PICKING UP WELL ON THESE WINDS AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THESE WIND FIELDS FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 3
TO 5 FEET RANGE AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ON FRI THE
HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS
SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JBM/DAG/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN AS MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS NOW OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO
AROUND 70 LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE HRRR AND
RUC ARE PICKING UP WELL ON THESE WINDS AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THESE WIND FIELDS FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM. SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 3
TO 5 FEET RANGE AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ON FRI THE
HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS
SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JBM/DAG/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING PIVOTING
FURTHER EAST, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ERODE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM GULF
STREAM. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT AND SPEED DIVERGENCE MOST NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE. SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET...WIND WAVE DOMINATE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING PIVOTING
FURTHER EAST, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ERODE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM GULF
STREAM. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT AND SPEED DIVERGENCE MOST NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE. SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET...WIND WAVE DOMINATE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING PIVOTING
FURTHER EAST, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ERODE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM GULF
STREAM. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT AND SPEED DIVERGENCE MOST NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE. SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET...WIND WAVE DOMINATE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING PIVOTING
FURTHER EAST, SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL ERODE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM GULF
STREAM. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT AND SPEED DIVERGENCE MOST NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID
60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE. SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET...WIND WAVE DOMINATE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 272358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
758 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED WEATHER REST OF EVENING TO
INDICATE SCT SHOWERS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC TSTMS COAST. LITTLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED PAST FEW HOURS AND CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED WITH NE WINDS. COULD SEE MORE TSTMS NEAR GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER OR MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT TO
INDICATE PERSISTENT 15G20KT THERE REST OF EVENING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 272358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
758 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED WEATHER REST OF EVENING TO
INDICATE SCT SHOWERS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC TSTMS COAST. LITTLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED PAST FEW HOURS AND CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED WITH NE WINDS. COULD SEE MORE TSTMS NEAR GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER OR MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT TO
INDICATE PERSISTENT 15G20KT THERE REST OF EVENING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 272358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
758 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED WEATHER REST OF EVENING TO
INDICATE SCT SHOWERS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC TSTMS COAST. LITTLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED PAST FEW HOURS AND CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED WITH NE WINDS. COULD SEE MORE TSTMS NEAR GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER OR MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT TO
INDICATE PERSISTENT 15G20KT THERE REST OF EVENING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 272358
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
758 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED WEATHER REST OF EVENING TO
INDICATE SCT SHOWERS WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC TSTMS COAST. LITTLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED PAST FEW HOURS AND CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED WITH NE WINDS. COULD SEE MORE TSTMS NEAR GULF STREAM
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER OR MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GDNC GENERALLY SUPPORTS VFR FCST
THROUGH TAF PERIOD ALL SITES. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AT KPGV AND
KISO OVERNIGHT BUT LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT
THERE...WHILE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS LIMIT THREAT AT KEWN
AND KOAJ. SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL BE MORE ALONG COAST FRIDAY
WITH JUST SCT-BKN CU/SCU FOR TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...INCREASED WINDS AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT TO
INDICATE PERSISTENT 15G20KT THERE REST OF EVENING. REST OF FCST ON
TRACK.

/PREVIUOS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/JBM/DAG
MARINE...RF/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271946
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL REMAIN
IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS PRODUCING
SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT POPS
DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT CHC POPS
ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITION OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY ISOLATED, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DAY 7/8, IS PARTICULARLY
TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ANY TROPICAL IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA, CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY, AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERSPREADS EASTERN NC.

THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3 WITH POOR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO SOON TO SPECULATE AT
THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, VEERING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME LESS THAN 10 KT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL RANGE 2-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR
THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER IN
NORTHEAST WIND/SWELL CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THEN A GENERAL BLEND
WITH WAVEWATCH FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER
THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS
PRODUCING SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
CONT TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT POPS DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT
CHC POPS ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S
COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WTRS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF THE COAST. AREA WILL
REMAIN IN SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPR TRF TO THE W. THIS UPR TRF IS
PRODUCING SOME DIFL ALOFT NEAR AND OFF THE COAST AND THIS WILL
CONT TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA ESPCLY IMD CST OVERNIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT POPS DEEP INLAND THRU AFTN THEN DROP POPS THESE AREAS...CONT
CHC POPS ALONG CST ALL NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 60S
COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO LOWER 70S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRAD MOVE FURTHER E
FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER AND THE FRONT/LOW OFFSHORE MOVES
FURTHER E. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND WITH A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POP IMD CST...ESPCLY EARLY. WITH MORE SUN INLAND SHLD SEE HIGHS
AROUND 85 WITH LOWER 80S CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE
RULED OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONT AT MAINLY 10 TO
20 KTS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE N AND FRONT/WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE. MOST MDLS SEEM UNDERDONE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET
CNTRL AND N AND MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT S WITH POSS A FEW 5 FOOTERS WELL
E OF LOOKOUT. ON FRI THE HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N AS THE
LOW/FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER E. THIS SHLD LEAD TO NE WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER WTRS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND AND CHC CST THRU THIS EVENING AS BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR AND E OF CST WITH SOME UPR DIFL
ASSOC WITH RIGHT REAR OF JET. WITH LESS PRECIP AND POSS SOME PEAKS
OF SUN INLAND STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. PLEASANT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE RULED
OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS CONT 15 TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. WINDS/SEAS A BIT LOWER SRN TIER BUT MAY
SEE WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WILL CONT TO CAP SEAS AT 5
FT NRN TIER WITH NO SCA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND PRODUCE
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST POST FRONTAL SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT
WHICH IS FORECAST SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT IN
MIXTURE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING TO E THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND
10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND AND CHC CST THRU THIS EVENING AS BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR AND E OF CST WITH SOME UPR DIFL
ASSOC WITH RIGHT REAR OF JET. WITH LESS PRECIP AND POSS SOME PEAKS
OF SUN INLAND STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. PLEASANT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE RULED
OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS CONT 15 TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. WINDS/SEAS A BIT LOWER SRN TIER BUT MAY
SEE WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WILL CONT TO CAP SEAS AT 5
FT NRN TIER WITH NO SCA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND PRODUCE
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST POST FRONTAL SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT
WHICH IS FORECAST SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT IN
MIXTURE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING TO E THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND
10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND AND CHC CST THRU THIS EVENING AS BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR AND E OF CST WITH SOME UPR DIFL
ASSOC WITH RIGHT REAR OF JET. WITH LESS PRECIP AND POSS SOME PEAKS
OF SUN INLAND STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. PLEASANT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE RULED
OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS CONT 15 TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. WINDS/SEAS A BIT LOWER SRN TIER BUT MAY
SEE WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WILL CONT TO CAP SEAS AT 5
FT NRN TIER WITH NO SCA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND PRODUCE
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST POST FRONTAL SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT
WHICH IS FORECAST SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT IN
MIXTURE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING TO E THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND
10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTN. LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC DEEP INLAND AND CHC CST THRU THIS EVENING AS BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR AND E OF CST WITH SOME UPR DIFL
ASSOC WITH RIGHT REAR OF JET. WITH LESS PRECIP AND POSS SOME PEAKS
OF SUN INLAND STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. PLEASANT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL OFF THE NC COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS
STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, THUS IT IS TOO
SOON TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY E OF TAF
SITES NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR THRU EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSS.
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG/ST HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR WILL BE WORKING IN SO FOR NOW THINK
WILL BE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER SOME LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS CANT BE RULED
OUT. VFR SHLD DOMINATE FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS CONT 15 TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. WINDS/SEAS A BIT LOWER SRN TIER BUT MAY
SEE WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY WITH SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WILL CONT TO CAP SEAS AT 5
FT NRN TIER WITH NO SCA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND PRODUCE
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST POST FRONTAL SURGE OF 15 TO 20 KT
WHICH IS FORECAST SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT IN
MIXTURE OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE AND LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING TO E THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND
10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK




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