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000
FXUS62 KMHX 050800
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...H2O VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE UPPER LOW
SPINNING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS E NC...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK BACKDOOR SFC
FRONTAL BNDRY HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM
ROCKY MOUNT TO JACKSONVILLE. FRONTAL INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED WITH
200-400 FOOT STRATUS DECK ENVELOPING ALL BUT DUPLIN COUNTY. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND WILL REMAIN IN THIS
RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AS THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX PIVOTS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL COMMENCE AS DPVA/OMEGA INCREASES
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60-80 FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MOST
HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING CAMS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MAY...ANOMOLOUS COLD POCKET ALOFT AND QUITE
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 7-8K FT WILL PRODUCE EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSHOWERS IN HEAVIER CELLS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE HAIL DUE TO
LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPES...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HAIL TO DIME/NICKEL SIZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL THREAT IN HWO.
TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL TODAY DUE TO THE WIDESPEAD
PRECIP/CLOUDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 65-70...COOLER ON THE OBX
(NEAR 60) WHERE NE WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COOL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT REMAINS WITH
CONTINUING DEEP OMEGA. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF INSTABILITY BY SUNSET. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 INCH OR MORE
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
APPRECIABLE RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S TONIGHT AS THE COOL UPPER LOW PIVOTS OVER
EASTERN NC WITH FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
NC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION, HELPING
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY, SHIFTING NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT FRIDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. ANY BREAKS
IN PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
AND GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT, A SMALL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE PRESENT
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
FROM ROUGHLY 15Z-00Z FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WHILE COLUMN DRYING ENSUES LEADING TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIP ENDING, CLEARING SKIES, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED, THUS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST ATTM. THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A DEGREE OR
TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS RAMP UP BY MID WEEK AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK
AS WELL, LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...LIFR IN STRATUS AND OCNL FOG ENVELOPING ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE LIFR/IFR CONTINUING
THROUGH AROUND 13Z THEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DETERMINING IF THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THEREAFTER. THINK THAT KOAJ AND KEWN
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING OUT TO MVFR AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ENTRENCHED AT KISO AND KPGV WHERE THE IFR
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCT TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. RETURN TO WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS OVER
EASTERN NC. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR MVFR
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN NC TAF SITES. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE LOW
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR
FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY, THEN LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY BUT REMAINS 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE 10-20 KT FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. COULD SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS
TO 25 KT THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM SCA HEADLINES AS THINK GUSTS
WILL BE BRIEF. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH FROM OFF THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, YIELDING MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WINDS MOSTLY 5-15 KT WILL PRODUCE SEAS
3-5 FT (2-4 FT NEARSHORE) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A TRICKY
WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY WITH LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
WEEK. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND REGIME WILL YIELD SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH WAVEWATCH REASONABLE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...SHRA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
WITH VERY ISOLD RETURNS NRN COASTAL PLAIN. THINK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH POSS ISOLD ACTIVITY NW TIER. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH S THRU REGION. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH NNE WINDS SPREADING S IN WAKE
OF FRONT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...SHRA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
WITH VERY ISOLD RETURNS NRN COASTAL PLAIN. THINK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH POSS ISOLD ACTIVITY NW TIER. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH S THRU REGION. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH NNE WINDS SPREADING S IN WAKE
OF FRONT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 042251
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...EARLIER CONVECTION THAT FIRED ON SEA BRZ IS
DIMINISHING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POP IN CORRIDOR JUST INLAND FROM
CST CPL MORE HOURS THEN MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH POSS SOME
SHRA MOVING INTO NW TIER VERY LATE. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE
OF FRONT EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW
OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH FRONT OVER NRN TIER EXPECTED
TO PUSH S OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. THE COLD
FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO THE
CRYSTAL COAST REGION AND BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY STALL OUT
NEAR THE COAST. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER WBZ/FREEZING
HEIGHTS. THINK THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE AS
APPROACH OF A COLD UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS A STALLED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AS CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 1000
FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 3 MILES OR LESS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 10 AM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...LEP/SGK
MARINE...JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. THE COLD
FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO THE
CRYSTAL COAST REGION AND BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS
EARLIER EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY STALL OUT
NEAR THE COAST. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT BUT SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER WBZ/FREEZING
HEIGHTS. THINK THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE AS
APPROACH OF A COLD UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS A STALLED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AS CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 1000
FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 3 MILES OR LESS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 10 AM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...LEP/SGK
MARINE...JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
212 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. ANALYSIS OF THE
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS THE 850 MB COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN NC. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PULLING OFF THE COAST, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE ALLOWING HEATING
AND THUS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY
FROM RODANTHE TO RICHLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY DURING PEAK HEATING RIGHT ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS AND THE NAM-12/CMC REGIONAL THEN INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. AREAS FURTHER INLAND /MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17/ MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS A STALLED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AS CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 1000
FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 3 MILES OR LESS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 10 AM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT 10 TO 15
KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/SGK
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
212 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. ANALYSIS OF THE
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS THE 850 MB COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN NC. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PULLING OFF THE COAST, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE ALLOWING HEATING
AND THUS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY
FROM RODANTHE TO RICHLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY DURING PEAK HEATING RIGHT ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS AND THE NAM-12/CMC REGIONAL THEN INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. AREAS FURTHER INLAND /MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17/ MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS A STALLED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AS CEILINGS WILL LOWER BELOW 1000
FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO 3 MILES OR LESS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 10 AM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT 10 TO 15
KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/SGK
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041657
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. ANALYSIS OF THE
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS THE 850 MB COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN NC. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PULLING OFF THE COAST, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE ALLOWING HEATING
AND THUS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY
FROM RODANTHE TO RICHLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY DURING PEAK HEATING RIGHT ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS AND THE NAM-12/CMC REGIONAL THEN INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. AREAS FURTHER INLAND /MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17/ MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WARM
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM THOUGH WILL HANDLE WITH LATER TEMPO UPDATES SHOULD
THEY OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP AS
WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM WED...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT PERHAPS DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT 10 TO 15
KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041352
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
952 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM WED...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. ANALYSIS OF OF
MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTS 850 MB COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS WITH A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PIEDMONT MOVING NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CURRENT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE PLUME TO EXIT THE AREA BY
17Z THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON THEN SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 17 WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY DURING PEAK HEATING RIGHT
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST TO THE OUTER BANKS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS THEN INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS
PRODUCING POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. AREAS FURTHER INLAND /WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17/ MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM THOUGH WILL HANDLE WITH LATER TEMPO UPDATES SHOULD
THEY OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP AS
WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM WED...WINDS LIGHT THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS
BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15
KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT. SEAS
ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PERHAPS DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT THOUGH
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINUING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR AND
VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH SCT/BKN
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM THOUGH WILL HANDLE WITH LATER TEMPO UPDATES SHOULD
THEY OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP AS
WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...WINDS LIGHT SW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. EXPECT GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH CONTINUING 5-10 KT WITH SOME HIGHER 15 KT
OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS CONTINUING 2 TO 4 FT. FOR TONIGHT...COOL
FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS
SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT THOUGH REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
1/2 OF THE FA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINUING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR AND
VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH SCT/BKN
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE
A RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
VFR TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM THOUGH WILL HANDLE WITH LATER TEMPO UPDATES SHOULD
THEY OCCUR DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP AS
WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...WINDS LIGHT SW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. EXPECT GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH CONTINUING 5-10 KT WITH SOME HIGHER 15 KT
OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS CONTINUING 2 TO 4 FT. FOR TONIGHT...COOL
FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS
SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT THOUGH REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040922
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
522 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF OF THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IN THEIR WAKE SCT/BKN STRATUS
BLANKETS THE FA. DIFFUSE COOL FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO E NC TODAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD DOT THE FA THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT MUCH COVERAGE
EXPECTED. WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISO/SCT THUNDERSHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS INLAND AREAS WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR AND VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM TODAY WITH SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 (MID 70S BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...QUIET AND PLEASANTLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND ALLOWS LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S (UPPER 50S COAST) UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE A
RENEGADE SHOWER ALONG THE OBX WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING NEARBY
THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRYING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS BUILDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLOUDS LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN TEMPS WILL BE OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
FREEZING LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8K FT, VERY LOW FOR MAY
DUE TO THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING OVERHEAD, SUGGESTING A DECENT THREAT
FOR HAIL IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THURSDAYS SURFACE
LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS BACK INTO EASTERN VA/NC AND BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED FRIDAY OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
STACKED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DOWNSLOPING FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN
FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILDING 1380-1390
METERS YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING/BISECTING EASTERN NC OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THOUGH THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY, SO WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS THINKING WITH HOLDING
OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATTER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
INTRODUCE POPS IF COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES. GIVEN LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, EXPECT
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RETURN
FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM WED...GENERALLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR
TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO E NC. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM
THOUGH NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW TO W TODAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME BR DEVELOP
AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 515 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE MOST POTENT
LOW APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REDUCED VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...WINDS LIGHT SW EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. EXPECT GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH CONTINUING 5-10 KT WITH SOME HIGHER 15 KT
OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS CONTINUING 2 TO 4 FT. FOR TONIGHT...COOL
FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS
SWITCHING N TO NE BEHIND IT THOUGH REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 520 AM WEDNESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPROVES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS 5-15 KT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE WATERS. A
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15 KT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
2-4 FT NEARSHORE. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 2-3 FEET. SEAS BUILD
3-5 FT SUNDAY DUE TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 FT. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS APPEARED REASONABLE OUTSIDE OF NW FLOW, WHILE WAVEWATCH
APPEARED GOOD FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...SCT TSRA...A FEW SVR...HAVE MOVED THRU THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND HAVE WEAKENED A BIT PAST HOUR AS GET CLOSER TO
COAST. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
HOWEVER GIVEN SLOW WEAKENING TREND SEEN PAST HR AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING INSTAB EXPECT THREAT OF SEVERE IS LOWERING. WILL CONT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND QPF
ALONG CST LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SCT STRONG CONVECTION CROSSING RESULTING IN POSS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
ALONG WITH THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW
LVLS NEARLY SATURATED EXPECT PD OF IFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS AND
POSS SOME FOG AS WINDS GO LIGHT. IFR SHLD GRAD TRANSITION THRU
MVFR WED MORN WITH MAINLY VFR LATE MORN THRU AFTN. WILL AGAIN HAVE
THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WED THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL WATERS SO
WILL DROP SCA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE REALLY NOT
DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE WAVEWATCH WAVE
MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM WHEN THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...SCT TSRA...A FEW SVR...HAVE MOVED THRU THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND HAVE WEAKENED A BIT PAST HOUR AS GET CLOSER TO
COAST. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
HOWEVER GIVEN SLOW WEAKENING TREND SEEN PAST HR AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING INSTAB EXPECT THREAT OF SEVERE IS LOWERING. WILL CONT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND QPF
ALONG CST LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SCT STRONG CONVECTION CROSSING RESULTING IN POSS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
ALONG WITH THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW
LVLS NEARLY SATURATED EXPECT PD OF IFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS AND
POSS SOME FOG AS WINDS GO LIGHT. IFR SHLD GRAD TRANSITION THRU
MVFR WED MORN WITH MAINLY VFR LATE MORN THRU AFTN. WILL AGAIN HAVE
THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WED THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL WATERS SO
WILL DROP SCA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE REALLY NOT
DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE WAVEWATCH WAVE
MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM WHEN THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 032239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM TUE...SCT TSRA...A FEW SVR...TO THE W ARE GRAD
SPREADING E TOWARD ERN NC. ATMS IS ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TRF. THREAT FOR
SEVERE WX WILL CONT INTO THE EVENING ESPCLY INLAND BEFORE WE SEE
ATMOSPHERE GRAD STABILIZE. GIVEN SCT NATURE OF CONVECTION TO THE W
LOWERED POPS TO CHC THRU THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z AND WILL DROP SEVERE WORDING AND LOWER
POPS. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SCT STRONG CONVECTION CROSSING RESULTING IN POSS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
ALONG WITH THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW
LVLS NEARLY SATURATED EXPECT PD OF IFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS AND
POSS SOME FOG AS WINDS GO LIGHT. IFR SHLD GRAD TRANSITION THRU
MVFR WED MORN WITH MAINLY VFR LATE MORN THRU AFTN. WILL AGAIN HAVE
THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WED THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS STILL AT
DIAMOND BUOY SO WILL EXTEND SCA CPL HOURS THIS EVENING TO COVER
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CENTRAL WATERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE REALLY NOT
DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE WAVEWATCH WAVE
MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM WHEN THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5"
WHICH IS AROUND +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS IS
FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
DECK ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S. DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AND FURTHER WEST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STARTING TO FIRE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 00Z THEN
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z AND
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AND MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST
PRODUCTS AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z AND WILL DROP SEVERE WORDING AND LOWER POPS TO
LIKELY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL
LOW ON COVERAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY BELOW 1000 FEET. CEILINGS
PERHAPS COULD FALL BELOW 500 FEET INTO LIFR TERRITORY BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AFTER 10 AM OR
SO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE
REALLY NOT DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE
WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM
WHEN THE WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...LEP/SGK
MARINE...JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AOA 1.5" WHICH IS AROUND +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ALL MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. STILL THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S AS THICKER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND BREAKS DEVELOP AS
EVIDENCED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL
LOW ON COVERAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY BELOW 1000 FEET. CEILINGS
PERHAPS COULD FALL BELOW 500 FEET INTO LIFR TERRITORY BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AFTER 10 AM OR
SO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET. BY LATE
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/SGK
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031830
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AOA 1.5" WHICH IS AROUND +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ALL MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. STILL THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S AS THICKER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND BREAKS DEVELOP AS
EVIDENCED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL
LOW ON COVERAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY BELOW 1000 FEET. CEILINGS
PERHAPS COULD FALL BELOW 500 FEET INTO LIFR TERRITORY BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AFTER 10 AM OR
SO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET. BY LATE
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/SGK
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AOA 1.5" WHICH IS AROUND +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ALL MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. STILL THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S AS THICKER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND BREAKS DEVELOP AS
EVIDENCED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TAF
PERIOD THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. ANOTHER REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO
SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET. BY LATE
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AOA 1.5" WHICH IS AROUND +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ALL MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE TO
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. STILL THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S AS THICKER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND BREAKS DEVELOP AS
EVIDENCED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TAF
PERIOD THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. ANOTHER REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO
SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET. BY LATE
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031342
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8" WHICH IS +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF OF THE COAST. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CAM HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL THIS
MORNING AND INDICATE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY NOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S
MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER
SHOULD THERE BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED. 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TAF
PERIOD THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. ANOTHER REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO
SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORN WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS, WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6
FEET HERE. BY LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE EASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ACTIVE NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS
BEEN FOCUS FOR MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
HAVE PRODUCED SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. MOST HIGH RES CAMS INDICATE
THESE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE THUS INDICATED 60-80 POPS THROUGH THE
NOON HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO A THREAT AS SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS MORNING.

A BREAK MAY ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. A
TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER SHOULD THERE BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
500 MB FLOW INCREASES AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES ON THE CAROLINAS...
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO
NO HIGHER THAN SCT TS TODAY...AS THE THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. MANY OF THE
NSSL/NCAR CAM MEMBERS HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL WEST OF E NC
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TAF
PERIOD THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. ANOTHER REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO
SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 OBSERVED ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORN WITH SEAS 3-4 FEET. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET HERE. BY LATE TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE EASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ACTIVE NOCTURNAL LLJ
BEGINNING TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SC. MOST
HIGH RES CAMS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE
THUS INDICATED 60-80 POPS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY.

A BREAK MAY ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. A
TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER SHOULD THERE BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
500 MB FLOW INCREASES AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES ON THE CAROLINAS...
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO
NO HIGHER THAN SCT TS TODAY...AS THE THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. MANY OF THE
NSSL/NCAR CAM MEMBERS HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL WEST OF E NC
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH MAY
SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THERE
COULD BE A REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 OBSERVED ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORN WITH SEAS 3-4 FEET. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS, WITH FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET HERE. BY LATE TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030800
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. H20 VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE EASTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ACTIVE NOCTURNAL LLJ
BEGINNING TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SC. MOST
HIGH RES CAMS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE
THUS INDICATED 60-80 POPS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY.

A BREAK MAY ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. A
TRICKY FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY EVEN
HIGHER SHOULD THERE BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED.
500 MB FLOW INCREASES AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES ON THE CAROLINAS...
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO
NO HIGHER THAN SCT TS TODAY...AS THE THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. MANY OF THE
NSSL/NCAR CAM MEMBERS HAVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL WEST OF E NC
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SCT/ISO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH MAY
SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN THIS MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THERE
COULD BE A REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 OBSERVED ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORN WITH SEAS 3-4 FEET. THESE WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS...WITH FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FEET HERE. BY LATE TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BECOMING MORE NW ON
SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS AFFECTING
AREA. KEPT LIKELY POPS W TO CHC POPS E FOR OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF FRONT FROM W-NW AND INCREASED SHRT WV ENERGY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE. NO CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT
BETTER CVRG OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG
THE COAST LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD
LIMIT THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED N BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W-SW WILL AFFECT INLAND TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING EVENING WITH
LCL SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. MORE WDPSRD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
GDNC SUPPORTS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH LCL SUB-VFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...LATEST GDNC SUPPORTS FCST OF SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS
OVERNIGHT...THUS NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISON/
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF/JBM
MARINE...RSB/RF/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
808 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SEA BREEZE NOW MOVING NORTH OF AREA...BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD COASTAL PLAINS FROM SANDHILLS
AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING INLAND REST OF EVENING WITH SLGT CHC
COAST. SVR THREAT DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD STILL
SEE LOCALLY STRONG STORM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT
BETTER CVRG OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG
THE COAST LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD
LIMIT THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED N BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W-SW WILL AFFECT INLAND TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING EVENING WITH
LCL SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. MORE WDPSRD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
GDNC SUPPORTS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH LCL SUB-VFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISON/
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF/JBM
MARINE...RSB/RF/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
808 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SEA BREEZE NOW MOVING NORTH OF AREA...BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD COASTAL PLAINS FROM SANDHILLS
AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING INLAND REST OF EVENING WITH SLGT CHC
COAST. SVR THREAT DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD STILL
SEE LOCALLY STRONG STORM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT
BETTER CVRG OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG
THE COAST LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD
LIMIT THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED N BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W-SW WILL AFFECT INLAND TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING EVENING WITH
LCL SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. MORE WDPSRD ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BUT
GDNC SUPPORTS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH LCL SUB-VFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSISON/
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF/JBM
MARINE...RSB/RF/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG
OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG THE COAST
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD LIMIT
THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CIGS CONT TO GRAD RISE AND EXPECT LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT PREDOMINATE
VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME SUB VFR POSS IN SCT CONVECTION.
WHAT STORMS DO FORM THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MDLS SHOW BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIP CVRG AND THINK WILL SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSS. SSW WIND WILL GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF
MARINE...RSB/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG
OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG THE COAST
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD LIMIT
THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE
NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A LOT OF
THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. BUT KEPT MINIMAL POPS IN FCST WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CIGS CONT TO GRAD RISE AND EXPECT LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT PREDOMINATE
VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME SUB VFR POSS IN SCT CONVECTION.
WHAT STORMS DO FORM THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MDLS SHOW BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIP CVRG AND THINK WILL SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSS. SSW WIND WILL GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS OFF
THE COAST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON THE COAST EARLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BECOMING MORE NW ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF
MARINE...RSB/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021833
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
233 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 INLAND.
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND AND WITH SOME STORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP TO THE W EVENTUALLY THINK WILL SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG
OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING INLAND. ALONG THE COAST
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC AS SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND SHLD LIMIT
THREAT THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE GOOD INSTAB A FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SVR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OVERNIGHT THINK WILL SEE LIMITED COVERAGE THRU EVENING ONCE
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WEAKENS. LATE TONIGHT MOST ALL MODELS
SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO REGION FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN QPF PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONT WITH LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC LATE. WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
SSW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWS MAINLY MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WITH COLD FRONT GRAD APPROACHING FROM THE W
AND SHORTWAVES CROSSING IN SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT GOOD CVRG OF SHRA
AND TSRA. IF GET SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MODERATE INSTAB TO
DEVELOP COULD AGAIN SEE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AS
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE AREA. WL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ALL DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL
BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CIGS CONT TO GRAD RISE AND EXPECT LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT PREDOMINATE
VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME SUB VFR POSS IN SCT CONVECTION.
WHAT STORMS DO FORM THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MDLS SHOW BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIP CVRG AND THINK WILL SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSS. SSW WIND WILL GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH LESS
CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE ENHANCED STRATUS
AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS
TONIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT SEAS OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 6 FEET OUTER PORTIONS AND CONT IN THAT RANGE THRU THE DAY
TUE. WL CONT SCA S OF OREGON INLET LATE TONIGHT THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT. SEAS OVER NRN WTRS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION WITH ONLY
ISOLD CELL OVER DUPLIN COUNTY. WITH TEMPS UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPTS 65 TO 70 HAVE SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2500 INLAND.
DESPITE WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING EXPECT INSTAB TO LEAD TO
SCT TSRA THIS AFTN SO WILL CONT CHC POPS MOST AREAS. GIVEN THE
INSTAB A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR WITH HAIL AND
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CIGS CONT TO GRAD RISE AND EXPECT LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT PREDOMINATE
VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME SUB VFR POSS IN SCT CONVECTION.
WHAT STORMS DO FORM THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MDLS SHOW BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIP CVRG AND THINK WILL SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSS. SSW WIND WILL GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...NO CHANGES WITH CONT SW FLOW 10 TO 20 KTS AND
SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT TODAY.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-5FT.
WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPECT
SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT.
INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CONVECTION SLOW TO FIRE OVER REGION WITH ONLY
ISOLD CELL OVER DUPLIN COUNTY. WITH TEMPS UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEWPTS 65 TO 70 HAVE SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2500 INLAND.
DESPITE WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING EXPECT INSTAB TO LEAD TO
SCT TSRA THIS AFTN SO WILL CONT CHC POPS MOST AREAS. GIVEN THE
INSTAB A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR WITH HAIL AND
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...CIGS CONT TO GRAD RISE AND EXPECT LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR NEXT HOUR OR SO. EXPECT PREDOMINATE
VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SOME SUB VFR POSS IN SCT CONVECTION.
WHAT STORMS DO FORM THIS AFTN/EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE MDLS SHOW BETTER FORCING
AND PRECIP CVRG AND THINK WILL SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSS. SSW WIND WILL GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUE AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM MON...NO CHANGES WITH CONT SW FLOW 10 TO 20 KTS AND
SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT TODAY.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-5FT.
WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPECT
SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT.
INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
923 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM MON...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST. SHORT RANGE AND
HIGH RES MODELS CONT TO TRY AND DEVELOP NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA OVER
REGION THIS MORN AND STILL NO SIGNS OF THAT. WL CONT PREV FCST
WITH SLIGHT POPS EARLY INCREASING TO GOOD CHC INLAND THIS AFTN.
MOD TO STRONG INSTAB LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
80S. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR SOME STRONG TO POSS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER OH WITH
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL TOUGH TO TIME
THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SB
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S -4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM
SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 17.

WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW
FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MON...STILL HAVE IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER REGION. THESE
SHLD BE LIFTING TO VFR THRU LATE MORNING WITH HEATING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB- VFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW WIND GUSTS
15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH CONT SW FLOW 10 TO 20 KTS AND
SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT.

PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-5FT.
WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXPECT
SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT.
INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021052
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
OH WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTO VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL TOUGH TO TIME
THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SB
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S -4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM
SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 17.

WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW
FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH EWN/PGV
AT VFR AND OAJ/ISO AT IFR/LIFR...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH 13Z BECOMING PRED
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-5FT. WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXPECT SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT.
INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021052
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
OH WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
INTO VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL TOUGH TO TIME
THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SB
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S -4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM
SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 17.

WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SW
FLOW SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH EWN/PGV
AT VFR AND OAJ/ISO AT IFR/LIFR...WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH 13Z BECOMING PRED
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-5FT. WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXPECT SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
INLAND. SWLY WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT.
INITIATED SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SK
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD





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