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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL/MS. SFC HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. NO SIG
CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR UPDATE. LINGERING
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...QUIET AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT
STILL THINK TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO
GO WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY.

LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SAT-MON WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. UPR RIDGING AND SW WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN NICE WARM-UP FOR SUN AND MON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 INLAND SECTIONS MON.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AREA LATE MON NIGHT...AND THAT MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WITH OVER-RUNNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MON NIGHT.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WITH ECMWF
INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH MAIN SFC
HIGH CENTER MOVING OFF QUICKLY TO NE. STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST THAT
PERIOD GIVEN LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE PCPN
THREAT MAINLY NW AND OFFSHORE OF AREA...THUS KEPT POPS 20$.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

AFTER VERY COLD TEMPS SAT MORNING...MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING REST OF PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN AND MON...THEN A BIT OR A ROLLER COASTER TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER
AREA. SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH NE SFC FLOW LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 4-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING
10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATE SW WINDS DEVELOPING AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. DID ADJUST
FCST FOR FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT AND STRONGER NE WINDS
TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AS SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN AL/MS. SFC HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY.LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...QUIET AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT
STILL THINK TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO
GO WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY.

LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SAT-MON WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. UPR RIDGING AND SW WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN NICE WARM-UP FOR SUN AND MON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 INLAND SECTIONS MON.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AREA LATE MON NIGHT...AND THAT MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WITH OVER-RUNNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MON NIGHT.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WITH ECMWF
INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH MAIN SFC
HIGH CENTER MOVING OFF QUICKLY TO NE. STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST THAT
PERIOD GIVEN LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE PCPN
THREAT MAINLY NW AND OFFSHORE OF AREA...THUS KEPT POPS 20$.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

AFTER VERY COLD TEMPS SAT MORNING...MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING REST OF PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN AND MON...THEN A BIT OR A ROLLER COASTER TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER
AREA. SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH NE SFC FLOW LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING
10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATE SW WINDS DEVELOPING AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. DID ADJUST
FCST FOR FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT AND STRONGER NE WINDS
TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AS SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...CQD/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN AL/MS. SFC HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY.LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...QUIET AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT
STILL THINK TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WERE TO
GO WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERED
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY.

LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SAT-MON WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. UPR RIDGING AND SW WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN NICE WARM-UP FOR SUN AND MON...WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 INLAND SECTIONS MON.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AREA LATE MON NIGHT...AND THAT MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE
POST-FRONTAL WITH OVER-RUNNING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MON NIGHT.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WITH ECMWF
INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH MAIN SFC
HIGH CENTER MOVING OFF QUICKLY TO NE. STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST THAT
PERIOD GIVEN LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE PCPN
THREAT MAINLY NW AND OFFSHORE OF AREA...THUS KEPT POPS 20$.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

AFTER VERY COLD TEMPS SAT MORNING...MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING REST OF PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SUN AND MON...THEN A BIT OR A ROLLER COASTER TUE-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER
AREA. SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH NE SFC FLOW LATE MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING
10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATE SW WINDS DEVELOPING AS SFC
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. DID ADJUST
FCST FOR FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT AND STRONGER NE WINDS
TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AS SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280755
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN AL/MS. SFC HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY.LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NWLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...QUIET AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD LIMIT FULL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT
STILL THINK TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AS WINDS DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO
55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS PARKS A HIGH
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING
TOWARD A WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE
FRONT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SCA
CONTINUES FOR THE WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING
10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, WINDS BECOME
SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD NORTHERLY
WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...CQD/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280545
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. THE SFC LOW
HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STRONG CAA
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S INLAND TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING
NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO
MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO 10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE
ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 4-7 FT
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...SK/JME/DAG/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280545
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. THE SFC LOW
HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STRONG CAA
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S INLAND TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 15KT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING
NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO
MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO 10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE
ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 4-7 FT
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...SK/JME/DAG/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 280339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
COVER. THE SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT PRODUCED ISOL-SCT
SHOWERS WHICH ARE NOW PUSHING OFF THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVE
OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING PREVENTING
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S
INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS. NO IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING EAST...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES JUST NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 4-7 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
COVER. THE SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT PRODUCED ISOL-SCT
SHOWERS WHICH ARE NOW PUSHING OFF THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVE
OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING PREVENTING
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S
INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS. NO IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT...YIELDING SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING EAST...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES JUST NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 4-7 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280036
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
COVER. THE SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT
SHOWERS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SHOWER CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS. NO IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...YIELDING SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING EAST...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES JUST NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 280036
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
COVER. THE SFC LOW HAS SHIFTED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE THE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT
SHOWERS WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SHOWER CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS. NO IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...YIELDING SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS MOVING EAST...AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES JUST NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE
FOR THE SHORT TERM BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 272132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ENOUGH COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WE EVEN GOT A REPORT OF HAIL
(GRAUPEL) IN A STRONGER CELL MOVING ACROSS LENOIR COUNTY. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT
MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WATERS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT
SOUTH OF THE LOW GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND SEEING WLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THE LOW AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
CAA DEVELOPING BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 272132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ENOUGH COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WE EVEN GOT A REPORT OF HAIL
(GRAUPEL) IN A STRONGER CELL MOVING ACROSS LENOIR COUNTY. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT
MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WATERS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT
SOUTH OF THE LOW GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND SEEING WLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THE LOW AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
CAA DEVELOPING BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271940
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ENOUGH COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WE EVEN GOT A REPORT OF HAIL
(GRAUPEL) IN A STRONGER CELL MOVING ACROSS LENOIR COUNTY. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT
MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WATERS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT
SOUTH OF THE LOW GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND SEEING WLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THE LOW AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
CAA DEVELOPING BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND PLAN ON ADDING ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271940
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ENOUGH COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WE EVEN GOT A REPORT OF HAIL
(GRAUPEL) IN A STRONGER CELL MOVING ACROSS LENOIR COUNTY. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT
MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WATERS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT
SOUTH OF THE LOW GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND SEEING WLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THE LOW AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
CAA DEVELOPING BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND PLAN ON ADDING ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271759
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016MB SFC LOW
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WAA ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LIFTING N
OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HIGH
BASED WITH CIGS AROUND 8K FT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW SO
HAVE NOT HAS MUCH...IF ANY QPF. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOL TO SCT
SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AS THERE REMAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS
DRY AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS...FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH BUT SEEING SW/W WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
ACROSS ONSLOW BAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BRINGING NW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA
DEVELOPS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-6 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTALS
WATERS TODAY...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271553
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1053 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016MB SFC LOW
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WAA ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LIFTING N
OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HIGH
BASED WITH CIGS AROUND 8K FT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW SO
HAVE NOT HAS MUCH...IF ANY QPF. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOL TO SCT
SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AS THERE REMAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AND EXPECT THAT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS...FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH BUT SEEING SW/W WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
ACROSS ONSLOW BAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BRINGING NW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA
DEVELOPS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-6 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTALS
WATERS TODAY...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1015MB SFC LOW
OVER WEST CENTRAL NC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORT...THOUGH MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS LIMITED. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED ECHOES MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THINK
MOST RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...OR IF SO JUST MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
OUTER BANKS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AND EXPECT THAT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SW/W WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NORTH OF OCRACOKE 4-7FT AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE 2-4FT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS BECOMING NWLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NWLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 15-25KT...AND SEAS 5-8FT. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE WATERS TODAY...AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT. SCA FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1015MB SFC LOW
OVER WEST CENTRAL NC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORT...THOUGH MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS LIMITED. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED ECHOES MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THINK
MOST RETURNS ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...OR IF SO JUST MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
OUTER BANKS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AND EXPECT THAT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SW/W WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NORTH OF OCRACOKE 4-7FT AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE 2-4FT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS BECOMING NWLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NWLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 15-25KT...AND SEAS 5-8FT. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE WATERS TODAY...AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT. SCA FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1014MB SFC LOW
OVER WESTERN NC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORT...THOUGH MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED.
WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OUTER BANKS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT
50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
MVFR/VFR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PGV/ISO/OAJ MVFR THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR IFR
ESP AT PGV THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF
BTWN 12-14Z WITH PRED VFR. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NORTH OF OCRACOKE 5-8FT AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE 3-5FT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS BECOMING NWLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NWLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 15-25KT...AND SEAS 5-8FT. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE WATERS TODAY...AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT. SCA FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270812
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1014MB SFC LOW
OVER WESTERN NC WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORT...THOUGH MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED.
WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OUTER BANKS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS ABOUT
50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
MVFR/VFR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PGV/ISO/OAJ MVFR THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR IFR
ESP AT PGV THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF
BTWN 12-14Z WITH PRED VFR. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-15KT...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...NORTH OF OCRACOKE 5-8FT AND SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE 3-5FT. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS BECOMING NWLY BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NWLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AT 15-25KT...AND SEAS 5-8FT. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE WATERS TODAY...AND PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT. SCA FOR
ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL BE MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270558
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR UPDATE. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND
PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS
THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND- SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
MVFR/VFR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PGV/ISO/OAJ MVFR THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR IFR
ESP AT PGV THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF
BTWN 12-14Z WITH PRED VFR. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE W/NW WINDS
10-20KT. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK
TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY LATE THURS MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE
AROUND 6-10 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 3-6 FT SOUTH. SEAS
BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270558
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR UPDATE. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND
PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS
THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND- SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
MVFR/VFR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP PGV/ISO/OAJ MVFR THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR IFR
ESP AT PGV THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF
BTWN 12-14Z WITH PRED VFR. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT TAFS
AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE W/NW WINDS
10-20KT. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK
TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY LATE THURS MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE
AROUND 6-10 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 3-6 FT SOUTH. SEAS
BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...CQD/JME
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-
SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-
SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 270344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-
SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270344
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW
WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-
SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 270003
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE TAPERED
DOWN POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OBX COAST. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND
PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 0.50". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS
THE REGION USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH MID 40S INLAND TO
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE BASED
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC...EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECOUPLE TO LIGHT OR CALM. VERY MOIST SURFACE AND LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WOULD INDICATE A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR FOG. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT SO HAVE NOT INDICATED IFR WITH THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. IF ANY FOG DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
06Z...ALLOWING THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE FOG LIKELIHOOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID THANKSGIVING
MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NW WINDS
10-20KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY AROUND 12Z
THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT BY
LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 3-6 FT
BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LOW PRES HAS PUSHED OFF THE NC/VA COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO
AROUND 0.5". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR
WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE TAF SITES AND CEILING CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR NEXT 6 HRS WITH VCSH AND GUSTY W/NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 00Z
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYS LIFTS TO THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR DECOUPLING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION LAYER...CONDITIONS LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CAN EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT OAJ. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LOW PRES HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS WITH WINDS
NOW N/NW AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUST TO AROUND 30 KT. EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY
AROUND 12Z THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT BY LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
3-6 FT BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK









000
FXUS62 KMHX 261936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LOW PRES HAS PUSHED OFF THE NC/VA COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED ACROSS
THE REGION AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND PWATS DROPPING TO
AROUND 0.5". WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N/NW ACROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS INLAND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID 30S WHILE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. THE N/NW WINDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME MINOR
WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUND-SIDE OBX BUT SEEM TO BE PEAKING
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE AND DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
REMAIN MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN UP TO AROUND 600MB AND
REACHING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE DRIER BUT THE
ECMWF DOES INDICATE SOME QPF NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THEREFORE HAVE
INTRODUCED SLT CHC NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND CHC POPS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 264. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS BACK TO W TO SW IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN NC EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT EVENING SHOWERS OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND COLD AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S
BEACHES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WITH A CHILLY
NORTH WIND. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
SATURDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE TAF SITES AND CEILING CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING TO MVFR. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR NEXT 6 HRS WITH VCSH AND GUSTY W/NW
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 00Z
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYS LIFTS TO THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR DECOUPLING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION LAYER...CONDITIONS LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CAN EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT OAJ. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND
PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LOW PRES HAS PUSHED NE OF THE WATERS WITH WINDS
NOW N/NW AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUST TO AROUND 30 KT. EXPECT WINDS
TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO SW AROUND 5-15 KT BY
AROUND 12Z THURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT BY LATE THURS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 9-12 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET AND 4-8 FT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
3-6 FT BY THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 4-7 FT THURS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SURGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT ARE EXPECTED AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT
SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
10 TO 15 KT MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261544
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10AM WED...SFC LOW PRES LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 6 MB 3-HR PRES
FALLS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXPECT TO LOW TO QUICKLY
PULL OFF THE NRN OBX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO AHEAD OF
THE LOW WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LIMITED
CAPE...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BUT STRETCHING INLAND TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUND COUNTIES. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE WARM MOIST AIR ALONG THE COAST
AND COOLER AIR INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY NWD INTO PAMLICO COUNTY...THEN ORIENTED NE
ACROSS MAINLAND HYDE AND DARE COUNTY AND OFF THE COAST OF KITTY
HAWK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS
GRADIENT OF TEMPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO MID 40S INLAND WHICH HAS BEEN TOUGH TO CAPTURE THE
TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE OR FALL TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NC FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS RTES
THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRES LIFTING NE ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE LOW
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH N/NW FLOW BRINGING IN MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS GRADIENT GUSTING 20-25KT...ALTHOUGH
SEEING HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH A WED GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW PRES IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE THIS
MORNIGN AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
SLY WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH NLY
WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND
RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/CQD
MARINE...BTC/SK/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 261544
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10AM WED...SFC LOW PRES LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 6 MB 3-HR PRES
FALLS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXPECT TO LOW TO QUICKLY
PULL OFF THE NRN OBX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO AHEAD OF
THE LOW WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LIMITED
CAPE...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BUT STRETCHING INLAND TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUND COUNTIES. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL BE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE WARM MOIST AIR ALONG THE COAST
AND COOLER AIR INLAND. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY NWD INTO PAMLICO COUNTY...THEN ORIENTED NE
ACROSS MAINLAND HYDE AND DARE COUNTY AND OFF THE COAST OF KITTY
HAWK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS
GRADIENT OF TEMPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO MID 40S INLAND WHICH HAS BEEN TOUGH TO CAPTURE THE
TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE OR FALL TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NC FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS RTES
THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRES LIFTING NE ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE LOW
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH N/NW FLOW BRINGING IN MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AND IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS GRADIENT GUSTING 20-25KT...ALTHOUGH
SEEING HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH A WED GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW PRES IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE THIS
MORNIGN AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
SLY WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH NLY
WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND
RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/CQD
MARINE...BTC/SK/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB NEAR CAPE FEAR...WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NNE AND ACROSS THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE/TOO QUICK WITH INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AS
INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. T/TD HAVE
INCREASED ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR WITH SLY WINDS
INCREASING. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE VALUES 500-1000
J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT...AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
4-500 M2/S2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST OR TORNADO POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH LATEST RADAR NOW SHOWING RAIN
BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 3
SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING. BY 18Z EXPECT LOW TO BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM
SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS...MID
50S/MID 60S THIS MORNING...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS. EWN/OAJ HAVE NOW IMPROVED
TO MVFR GETTING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...BUT THINK THEY
SHOULD RETURN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/SREF/NARRE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR AND
LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY DEPEND
ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT NE OFF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/SE WINDS
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT NOW AT 41025...AND SEAS 5-8 FT. WINDS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH LOW NOW NEAR CAPE FEAR THINK WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY RAMP UP AS
IT STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NNE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SC COAST
LIFTS NNE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST TODAY...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST. STRONG SLY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH NELY WINDS
NORTH...BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS NE. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT
AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA
CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB NEAR CAPE FEAR...WHICH
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NNE AND ACROSS THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE/TOO QUICK WITH INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AS
INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. T/TD HAVE
INCREASED ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR WITH SLY WINDS
INCREASING. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE VALUES 500-1000
J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT...AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
4-500 M2/S2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST OR TORNADO POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH LATEST RADAR NOW SHOWING RAIN
BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 3
SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING. BY 18Z EXPECT LOW TO BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM
SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS...MID
50S/MID 60S THIS MORNING...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS. EWN/OAJ HAVE NOW IMPROVED
TO MVFR GETTING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...BUT THINK THEY
SHOULD RETURN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/SREF/NARRE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR AND
LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY DEPEND
ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT NE OFF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/SE WINDS
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT NOW AT 41025...AND SEAS 5-8 FT. WINDS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS MORNING...BUT
WITH LOW NOW NEAR CAPE FEAR THINK WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY RAMP UP AS
IT STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NNE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SC COAST
LIFTS NNE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST TODAY...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST. STRONG SLY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH NELY WINDS
NORTH...BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS NE. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT
AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA
CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007MB LOW OFF THE
SC COAST THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE AND ACROSS THE
NC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SELY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING
AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASING ALONG
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE
VALUES 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT...AND 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY 4-500 M2/S2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4AM-10AM...WITH
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TORNADO POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL
POPS CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING. BY 18Z EXPECT LOW TO BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM
SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS THIS
MORNING...FALLING THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM LOW 50S TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/SREF/NARRE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR AND
LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT NE OFF THE VA/NC
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/SE WINDS
10-20KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SC COAST
LIFTS NNE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST TODAY...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST. STRONG SLY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH E/SE WINDS
NORTH...BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS NE. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT
AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA
CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007MB LOW OFF THE
SC COAST THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NNE AND ACROSS THE
NC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SELY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING
AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASING ALONG
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE
VALUES 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR 50-60KT...AND 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY 4-500 M2/S2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4AM-10AM...WITH
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TORNADO POSSIBLE. CATEGORICAL
POPS CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING. BY 18Z EXPECT LOW TO BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PRECIP SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM
SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS THIS
MORNING...FALLING THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM LOW 50S TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ALONG THE NE AND
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...AND EXPECT PRED DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. DRIES OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
SHOWING PWAT VALUES 0.5" BY 00Z. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH WET GROUND...ESP INLAND...BUT WITH CLOUD
COVER NOT EXPECTING SIG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE
MEAN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER IMPULSE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA, COLDER TEMPS
WILL FILTER IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 55 SOUTH. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT WILL
PREVENT A FULL DROP OFF OF TEMPS BUT LOWS WILL FALL TO BLO FREEZING
AWAY FROM THE COAST. FRIDAY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY MID TO UPPER
40S DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
LOWS AT LEAST FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS ALSO AT THE COAST.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/SREF/NARRE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR AND
LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT NE OFF THE VA/NC
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/SE WINDS
10-20KT WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SC COAST
LIFTS NNE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST TODAY...AND BY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE OFF THE NC/VA COAST. STRONG SLY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING...WITH E/SE WINDS
NORTH...BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LIFTS NE. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH 20-30KT
AND GUSTS 35-40KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SCA
CONTINUES FOR REMAINING WATERS/SOUNDS AND RIVERS. THOUGH BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SEAS PEAKING UP TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER
LEVEL RISES...GENERALLY A FOOT OR LESS. MINOR RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS INITIALLY...AND THEN ON
THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME
W/NWLY. NO ISSUES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY THURSDAY, NW WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT MOST MARINE AREAS AND INTO FRIDAY
FOR LINGERING 6 FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT SW AND STEADILY INCREASE
AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260618
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
118 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM INDICATE A MUCH MORE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDING OVER THE OBX/EASTERN
CRYSTAL COAST AREA. ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT HATTERAS INDICATE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...LCL HEIGHTS
AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE UPWARDS OF 800-1000 J/KG AND 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY NEARLY 450 M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 4AM-10AM...THEN THE COASTAL LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS AND OFF
THE DELMARVA BY 18Z.

CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
RANGES FROM NEAR 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.30 INCHES ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY
WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 0.50-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW
40S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE/SREF/NARRE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IFR AND
LOWER CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT NE OFF THE VA/NC
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NE
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING W/NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG
CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/E WINDS
10-20KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. 18Z GFS/00Z NAM GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MORE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT...MEANING
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
MAIN CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
UPDATED WINDS FORECAST AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OFF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UPWARDS OF 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HOISTED SCAS FOR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO FAVORABLE NW FETCH OF 25+ KT WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CQD/DAG/BM
MARINE...CQD/DAG/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE...THE
18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM INDICATE A MUCH MORE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BUILDING OVER THE OBX/EASTERN CRYSTAL COAST AREA.
ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT HATTERAS
INDICATE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE
UPWARDS OF 800-1000 J/KG AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEARLY
450 M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM
ROUGHLY 4AM-10AM...THEN THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS AND OFF THE DELMARVA BY 18Z.

CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
RANGES FROM NEAR 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.30 INCHES ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY
WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 0.50-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW
40S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CEILINGS DETERIORATED
TO IFR LEVELS BETWEEN 01-03Z AND SHOULD REMAIN LOWERED THROUGH
14-16Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD FRONTAL
INVERSION AFTER AROUND 03Z TONIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED IFR CEILINGS
BY AROUND 06Z. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS
AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG
CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. 18Z GFS/00Z NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...MEANING STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
UPDATED WINDS FORECAST AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OFF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UPWARDS OF 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HOISTED SCAS FOR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO FAVORABLE NW FETCH OF 25+ KT WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...DAG/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE...THE
18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM INDICATE A MUCH MORE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BUILDING OVER THE OBX/EASTERN CRYSTAL COAST AREA.
ADDED MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT HATTERAS
INDICATE PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT...CAPE
UPWARDS OF 800-1000 J/KG AND 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEARLY
450 M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM
ROUGHLY 4AM-10AM...THEN THE COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS AND OFF THE DELMARVA BY 18Z.

CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
RANGES FROM NEAR 1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.30 INCHES ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY
WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 0.50-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW
40S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CEILINGS DETERIORATED
TO IFR LEVELS BETWEEN 01-03Z AND SHOULD REMAIN LOWERED THROUGH
14-16Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD FRONTAL
INVERSION AFTER AROUND 03Z TONIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED IFR CEILINGS
BY AROUND 06Z. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS
AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG
CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. 18Z GFS/00Z NAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...MEANING STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
UPDATED WINDS FORECAST AND HOISTED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OFF CAPE LOOKOUT...WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UPWARDS OF 35 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HOISTED SCAS FOR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO FAVORABLE NW FETCH OF 25+ KT WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...DAG/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 260103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
803 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
EASTERN NC FROM NEAR NAGS HEAD SOUTHWEST TO JACKSONVILLE. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
RANGES FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.40 INCHES ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY
WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW
40S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. KOAJ REMAINS AN
OUTLIER WITH IFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD
FRONTAL INVERSION AFTER AROUND 03Z TONIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED IFR
CEILINGS BY AROUND 06Z WITH A TEMP GROUP FROM 03 TO 06Z FOR
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW
PRESSURE FORMS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG
CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
REPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM DIAMOND SHOALS TO OFF ONSLOW BAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT BRINGING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST
AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CGG/DAG/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
803 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
EASTERN NC FROM NEAR NAGS HEAD SOUTHWEST TO JACKSONVILLE. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER EASTERN NC LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT AND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK. LONG SOUTHWEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PWATS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
RANGES FROM NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 1.40 INCHES ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. EXCELLENT LIFT AND MOISTURE DELIVERY
WILL ALLOW QPF TO RANGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL WITH PRECIP AND DENSE CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
AND LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDINESS ON THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
COVERAGE AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW
40S ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. KOAJ REMAINS AN
OUTLIER WITH IFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD
FRONTAL INVERSION AFTER AROUND 03Z TONIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED IFR
CEILINGS BY AROUND 06Z WITH A TEMP GROUP FROM 03 TO 06Z FOR
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW
PRESSURE FORMS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG
CEILING CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
REPORTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM DIAMOND SHOALS TO OFF ONSLOW BAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT BRINGING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST
AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CGG/DAG/BM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 252105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES INLAND AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON
THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME
THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF COVERAGE
AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUE...AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CEILINGS. WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE MOVES THROUGH AREA TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE
FORMS AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN TAFS WITH MVFR
OVER WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG CEILING
CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...TROUGH OFFSHORE BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WIND TOT
HE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
GRADIENT BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 252105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES INLAND AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. BEFORE ENDING...AREA COULD SEE ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE OUR AREA FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP WED NIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS ON
THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME PRECIP TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN WEST SECTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME
THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF COVERAGE
AREA. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TRENDS WILL START SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND
WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUE...AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CEILINGS. WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE MOVES THROUGH AREA TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE
FORMS AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN TAFS WITH MVFR
OVER WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY PROLONG CEILING
CONDITIONS IN REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...TROUGH OFFSHORE BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WIND TOT
HE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN FRONTAL ZONE IS STILL TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS WELL TO THE EAST. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
GRADIENT BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY AT SCA LEVELS.

.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ON WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AND WILL START TO
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251744
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL REGION. AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER...
PRECIPITATION...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S OUTER BANKS. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THEN SETTLING IN TO A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN STARTING LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN STATES WED/THU THEN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS LATE IN THE DAY. A SOLID
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN NORTHERN
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR/LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER THAN FOR COASTAL
AREAS, THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WITH
READINGS STUCK IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST WED.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, WARM SECTOR TEMPS MAY RISE
INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.

LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NW WINDS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES WELL TO THE NE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S COAST WED NIGHT WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL BLO NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WILL
HIGHLIGHT WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WHICH MAY
KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUE...AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN LOW
CEILINGS. WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE MOVES THROUGH AREA TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. FRONT WILL ANCHOR OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE
FORMS AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN TAFS WITH MVFR
OVER WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID AREA OF RAIN WILL BRING LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAY BEING TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY APPROACHES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THEN
TRANSITS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1238 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THIS FRONT ALLOWING SPEEDS TO
REMAIN LOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WHERE SEAS DROP TO BELOW 6 FEET...BUT WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO LATE WEEK...AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS...PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN
MODEL...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND
6 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW PRES SKIRTS THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS, MAINLY IN
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY. SEAS
PEAK 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY REMAIN ABV 6 FT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
925 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 921 AM TUE...FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AS PER HRRR WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LINE OF SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD IN DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SEEN ON RADAR. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND AS SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER...
PRECIPITATION...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAY HAVE ALREADY
REACHED OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S OUTER BANKS. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THEN SETTLING IN TO A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN STARTING LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN STATES WED/THU THEN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS LATE IN THE DAY. A SOLID
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN NORTHERN
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR/LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER THAN FOR COASTAL
AREAS, THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WITH
READINGS STUCK IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST WED.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, WARM SECTOR TEMPS MAY RISE
INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.

LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NW WINDS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES WELL TO THE NE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S COAST WED NIGHT WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL BLO NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WILL
HIGHLIGHT WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WHICH MAY
KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES AT THE TAF
SITES. AS RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BY MID MORNING TO MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STEADY
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS IN IFR RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID AREA OF RAIN WILL BRING LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAY BEING TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY APPROACHES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THEN
TRANSITS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 924 AM TUE...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SPEEDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WHERE SEAS DROP TO BELOW 6 FEET...BUT WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO LATE WEEK...AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS...PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN
MODEL...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND
6 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW PRES SKIRTS THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS, MAINLY IN
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY. SEAS
PEAK 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY REMAIN ABV 6 FT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 251424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
925 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 921 AM TUE...FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AS PER HRRR WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LINE OF SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD IN DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE
ABOUT 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SEEN ON RADAR. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND AS SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S. WITH CLOUD COVER...
PRECIPITATION...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAY HAVE ALREADY
REACHED OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID
50S OUTER BANKS. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AND SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THEN SETTLING IN TO A MORE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN STARTING LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN STATES WED/THU THEN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS LATE IN THE DAY. A SOLID
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN NORTHERN
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR/LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER THAN FOR COASTAL
AREAS, THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE WITH
READINGS STUCK IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST WED.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, WARM SECTOR TEMPS MAY RISE
INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.

LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON NW WINDS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES WELL TO THE NE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND LOW 40S COAST WED NIGHT WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WITH TEMPS
REMAINING WELL BLO NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WILL
HIGHLIGHT WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. MODEL
CONCENSUS FAVORS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WHICH MAY
KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES AT THE TAF
SITES. AS RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BY MID MORNING TO MVFR
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STEADY
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS IN IFR RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOLID AREA OF RAIN WILL BRING LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THRU
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MAY BEING TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT SEE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEREAFTER EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY APPROACHES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THEN
TRANSITS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 924 AM TUE...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SPEEDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT WHERE SEAS DROP TO BELOW 6 FEET...BUT WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO LATE WEEK...AS GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE NC COAST
LATER TONIGHT WITH SEAS...PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN
MODEL...BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND AROUND
6 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEPENING SFC
LOW PRES SKIRTS THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS, MAINLY IN
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY. SEAS
PEAK 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY REMAIN ABV 6 FT
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THRU FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFT W/SW AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BEGIN TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC








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