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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281917
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THIS AFTN WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY
70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING
BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY. WILL DELAY START
OF SCT CONVECTION UNTIL AFT 20Z THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
FROM THE UPR 60S INLAND AND THE 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS
H85 MB FLOW REMAINS SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE BRINGING LIGHT NLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING
THROUGH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

BY FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOIST S TO SW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SEASONABLE
DEWPOINT TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS N-NE
10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT TUES NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY LESS THAN
15 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...LEP
MARINE...JAC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281917
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THIS AFTN WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY
70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING
BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY. WILL DELAY START
OF SCT CONVECTION UNTIL AFT 20Z THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
FROM THE UPR 60S INLAND AND THE 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS
H85 MB FLOW REMAINS SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE BRINGING LIGHT NLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING
THROUGH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

BY FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOIST S TO SW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SEASONABLE
DEWPOINT TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS N-NE
10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT TUES NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY LESS THAN
15 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...LEP
MARINE...JAC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281727
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281727
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
127 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/LEP
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281710
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO NEAR TERN FCST. SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION ALG IMMEDIATE CSTL SXNS. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SPLY ALG THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH SCT CONVECTION DVLPG.
CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK
EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER
JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES
3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON
INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTN...MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 16Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 16Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281401
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 18Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6-7FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281401
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF
STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TDY WITH ENC IN WARM
SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC
INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BACK EDGE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NAGS HEAD TO GREENVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...WITH
GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID
60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-7FT SOUTH. WILL MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 18Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING
SEAS 6-7FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CQD/TL
MARINE...JAC/CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 281103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING
INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH
STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E
OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA
AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND
DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND OFF THE
COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BACK EDGE IS CURRENTLY THROUGH
RDU/FAY AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-6FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ
GUSTS TO 25KT AND SEAS 4-6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW
WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING
INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH
STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E
OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA
AND POINTS E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND
DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT CONTINUES TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND OFF THE
COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BACK EDGE IS CURRENTLY THROUGH
RDU/FAY AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH SHOULD
WANE TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW
CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR
COAST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 4-6FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ
GUSTS TO 25KT AND SEAS 4-6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW
WINDS 10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL














000
FXUS62 KMHX 280840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 440 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN
SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY 70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND
CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI
VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW
BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS
TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER
ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN
STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL













000
FXUS62 KMHX 280733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
EASTWARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 280733
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EAST TN/WESTERN NC. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES
-8/-9C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
CAPPING INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL THINK BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
EASTWARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE THE MID-LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18/19C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S. HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S...MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT WITH NLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE DOMINATED BY
ANOMALOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TUE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS H85 MB FLOW REMAINS
SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. UPR
TROUGH SINKS FURTHER S TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
FURTHER DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS TD`S DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT...LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO
NEAR 70 OBX.

HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THUR
WITH LIGHT NE SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN DRY AIR. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY BY FRI...WITH MID ATLANTIC
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. AT
THE SFC...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG
THE COAST AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING RH VALS AND AN INC IN CLOUDS. HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS
TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE LATE THU NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC 28/00Z GFS/ECM WITH BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS
WETTER EARLIER...WITH LAYER MIX RATIOS RETURNING TO AOA 14 G/KG AS
EARLY AS FRI MORNING. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAEFS ENS
POPS ARE QUITE HIGH AND SE SEABOARD IS IN FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME
NEXT WEEKEND WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH FRI
AS HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR. A RETURN TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW
PRES RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS
3-5FT. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH 15Z
WITH BUOYS STILL SHOWING FREQ GUSTS TO 25KT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY...MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
10-20KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 3-5FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND 2-4FT NORTH. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM MON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED. TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING DIRECTION BECOME TRICKY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE
COAST...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
FRI...THEN BECOMING S TO SW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL











000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TO THE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT
RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT
INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
FLOW AND HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN
INCREASING TREND IN WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON
MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TO THE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT
RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT
INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LIKELY INLAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
FLOW AND HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR
PGV/ISO AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WEAKENING. DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD
LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN AFTN
AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL CONTINUE VCTS FOR EWN AND OAJ.
WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH VEERING WINDS AND
DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN
INCREASING TREND IN WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON
MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 280212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TOT
HE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. LIGHT TO  MODERATE SW FLOW AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS
CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN INCREASING TREND IN
WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC













000
FXUS62 KMHX 280212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TOT
HE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. LIGHT TO  MODERATE SW FLOW AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS
CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN INCREASING TREND IN
WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC














000
FXUS62 KMHX 272235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN LATER BUT SVRL MDLS SHOW SOME ACTVTY POSS REACHING AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DROPPED POPS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING
THEN HAVE LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW TIER. MODERATE SW FLOW AND
HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO
80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH SW WINDS INCREASING THIS
EVENING AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WTRS.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 272235
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUN...QUIET EVENING EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. STRONG CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN LATER BUT SVRL MDLS SHOW SOME ACTVTY POSS REACHING AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DROPPED POPS THRU MID TO LATE EVENING
THEN HAVE LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS NW TIER. MODERATE SW FLOW AND
HIGH DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO
80 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 630 PM SUN...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH SW WINDS INCREASING THIS
EVENING AND SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WTRS.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC











000
FXUS62 KMHX 271934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY/SOUTHWEST VA WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING POSSIBLY BRUSHING
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH 03Z. NOT MUCH OVERNIGHT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION SO HAVE KEPT
IT DRY. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND TAF SITES PGV/ISO FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMININSHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN END AND NOT DO NOT MENTION VCSH FOR THE COASTAL
SITES (EWN/OAJ)...BASED ON THIS TRENDS. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WITH SW FLOW BTW 5-10 KTS....THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING
FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...SCATTERED AT PGV
AND ISO...NUMEROUS CLOSER TO THE COAST AT OAJ AND EWN. STORMS
CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS ALONG WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 330 PM SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20
KNOTS BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON
LATEST DATA IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...BM/JAC
MARINE...HSA/JAC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271407
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT IS DRIVING LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MID-STATE AT PRESENT. BELIEVE THIS LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO COVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
19Z. TAPERED POPS FROM AROUND 40% NORTH TO 20% SOUTH. EXPECT LINE
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MIDSTATE AT
PRESENT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED WILL BE PGV AND ISO...LESS
SO AT EWN AND OAJ. CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 19Z.

PREV DISC...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 271407
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT IS DRIVING LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MID-STATE AT PRESENT. BELIEVE THIS LINE
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO COVER ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
19Z. TAPERED POPS FROM AROUND 40% NORTH TO 20% SOUTH. EXPECT LINE
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH MIDSTATE AT
PRESENT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED WILL BE PGV AND ISO...LESS
SO AT EWN AND OAJ. CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 19Z.

PREV DISC...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT HAS MOVED INTO
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COMPLEX IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVE FURTHER EAST AND IN FACT RADAR IS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CANT RULE OUT THAT AREA GETTING
PRECIPITATION.

PREV DISC...AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO
MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL
WRF SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ON
MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100 DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 634 AM SUN...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS AREA TAFS IN THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE. WILL SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WAS IN KENTUCKY THIS PAST EVENING
HAS MOVED INTO VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERN END
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER TAFS. WILL NOT MENTION IN SOUTHERN TAFS AS IT
WILL BE ISOLATED THERE BUT WILL HAVE VICINITY IN NORTHERN TAFS. IF
SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER TAFS CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. NOT FOG OR
STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 612 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO MODELS ALSO
PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL WRF
SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100
DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 154 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 3 TO 4
FEET.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 270751
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MAY MOVE UP THE COAST
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 134 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL OR SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
NAM/SREF/ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
REMNANTS OF MCC IN KENTUCKY MOVE ACROSS AREA. MESO MODELS ALSO
PICKING UP ON IT AND SHOW SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT KEEP CHANCES LOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. NSSL WRF
SHOWS SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALSO. WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COULD SEE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SUN...SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS TO OVER THE WATERS. REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT AS MAJORITY OF ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER PA WITH
DRAG COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S INTO THE 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY. THE SW FLOW WILL MEAN LOWER TD`S (60S) FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THUS LOWER HEAT INDICES HERE...MORE ON ORDER OF 95-100
DEGREES.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. UPR DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORED
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK. THIS MAY
EVEN PROMOTE WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC HELPING ENHANCE SVR POTENTIAL. EFF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
35-40 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HOT
AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH ML CAPE VALS AOA 2000
J/KG AND SFC CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG PER SREF/GFS/ECM. LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET
LINE WHERE RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE
70S. NAM REMAINS A DRY OUTLIER WRT PRECIP PRODUCTION AND LACKS
SUPPORT FROM DET GFS/ECM AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL RETAIN POPS
RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELIES SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85
MB FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 OBX. LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...A WELCOME TREAT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SUMMER!

TAKING A LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...MED TO LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH RETROGRADING WEST AND A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS
THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 154 AM SUN...THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS AT
OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 3 TO 4
FEET.

GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON HIGHER
SPEEDS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...SW GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON WITH SCA WINDS
AND SEAS ENDING. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 270433
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1234 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1227 AM SUN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
KENTUCKY MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WEAK FRONT
THAT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP ONLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS MORNING. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED AND WIND SPEEDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...SO ORGANIZED FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS MORNING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE SUNRISE AS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZE SO DONT EXPECT ORGANIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SUN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET. WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS PAST
AFTERNOON IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM INCREASING WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC











000
FXUS62 KMHX 270200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CELL SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM SE
VA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH LIGHT
SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO OVERALL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
LIGHT S/SW BREEZE WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SCT DIURNAL CU AGAIN
SUN WITH SW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LATEST OBS SHOW SE-SW WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING...AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CELL SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM SE
VA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WITH LIGHT
SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO OVERALL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
LIGHT S/SW BREEZE WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SCT DIURNAL CU AGAIN
SUN WITH SW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LATEST OBS SHOW SE-SW WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING...AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 262301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
WATERS. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH
MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO OVERALL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
LIGHT S/SW BREEZE WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SCT DIURNAL CU AGAIN
SUN WITH SW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LATEST OBS SHOW SE-SW WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING...AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 262301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
WATERS. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH
MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO OVERALL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT THINK
LIGHT S/SW BREEZE WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SCT DIURNAL CU AGAIN
SUN WITH SW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LATEST OBS SHOW SE-SW WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING...AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF CORE BANKS AT PRESENT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT. WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. ONLY
SCATTERED CU FIELD FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC
MARINE...HSA/JAC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF CORE BANKS AT PRESENT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGHOUT. WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD STAY WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORECASTING VERY WARM HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST. MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER EXCEPT
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
END OF A VORT PASSING BY TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY COULD
BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THAT AREA...WHICH WILL END BY
EVENING AS THE VORT QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED BY
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENC THROUGH MONDAY IN ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH WITH A MODERATE WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND HIGH
TD`S IN THE LWR 70S WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105
ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS WILL FAVORED BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC
JET STREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE SFC A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S -6 TO -10. MAIN
THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL CONT HIGHEST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW NORTHEASTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST TO START NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY
OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW CLOUDS/FOG. ONLY
SCATTERED CU FIELD FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MON AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT FOG SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS
BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH
NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM
AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 245 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL GAIN CONTROL
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS SUNDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 245 PM SAT...TGT SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
LATE SUN NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUN EVE THROUGH MON...ESP
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT. THE PAMLICO
SOUND MAY HAVE GUSTS ABOVE SCA RANGE SUN NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GENERALLY 2-4 FT
SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...HSA/JAC
MARINE...HSA/JAC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261437 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING THROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. WILL CARRY
POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261437 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING THROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. WILL CARRY
POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261419
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA
AND ADJACENT SOUND COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
END. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261419
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA
AND ADJACENT SOUND COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
END. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE WEAKENING
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. FOG THAT HAS FORMED WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH HEATING.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SAT...AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED
ALONG DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA TAFS. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND DISSIPATES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 261026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE WEAKENING
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. FOG THAT HAS FORMED WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH HEATING.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SAT...AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED
ALONG DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA TAFS. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND DISSIPATES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260937
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 536 AM SAT...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT SHOWERS FORMING
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN IN GRIDS.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL











000
FXUS62 KMHX 260730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 260452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SAT...SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR...SHOULD SEE
SOME FOG FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1251 AM SAT...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 10 KNOTS OF LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WITH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/HSA/RF










000
FXUS62 KMHX 260452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SAT...SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR...SHOULD SEE
SOME FOG FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1251 AM SAT...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 10 KNOTS OF LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WITH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/HSA/RF











000
FXUS62 KMHX 260149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SE US...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF THE NC/SC
BORDER...THINK MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THOUGH WILL INTRODUCE
POP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT...MOIST STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF
SITES. WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-3FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/CQD/RF
MARINE...HSA/CQD/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SE US...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF THE NC/SC
BORDER...THINK MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THOUGH WILL INTRODUCE
POP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT...MOIST STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF
SITES. WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-3FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/CQD/RF
MARINE...HSA/CQD/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252348
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE WITH
SUNSET...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AND MOIST, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/RF
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252348
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE WITH
SUNSET...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AND MOIST, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/RF
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 252305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD







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