Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 241450
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...HIGH AND DRY FCST ON TRACK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY
N-NE WINDS STILL PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...THUS WILL CONTINUE SCA INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 241450
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...HIGH AND DRY FCST ON TRACK AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY
N-NE WINDS STILL PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...THUS WILL CONTINUE SCA INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241050
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 241050
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. LATE
TONIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTENING
IN THE 2000-3000 FT LAYER WITH BUFKIT AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT DEVELOPING BY 09Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS AT THE MOMENT SO WILL INTRODUCE JUST A SCATTERED
2000 FT DECK WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO
DECREASE SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FROM 5 TO 8 FT TO 5 TO 7 FT AS
CURRENT SURGE IS PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND SURGE IS NOW AT IT`S
FORECAST PEAK AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WITH THIS IN
MIND I HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES A LITTLE FASTER BY 18Z VS 21Z IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT.

THE NWPS WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH A FORECAST
OF 5 TO 8 FT SEAS SO BLENDED IT WITH WAVE WATCH AND WILL INDICATED
SUBSIDING SEAS AFTER 12Z WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SEAS TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT
FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 240716
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THUR...MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FRI EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER PEAK HEATING. STRONGEST ASPECT OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...WITH ONLY
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE CLIPPING THE MHX CWA. NO CHANGE
TO CURRENT HIGH-CHANCE POPS WITH TSTMS...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUN WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MON. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE TUES INTO
WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH A DEVELOPING
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
SLIGHTLY SUN AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THROUGH MON
WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS
4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WITH
WINDS PICKING UP MORE TUES AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z
WAVEWATCH...AND PREDOMINANTLY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD ADVECTION SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
COASTAL SECTIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR BUT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO PRODUCE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOISTENING OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A LOW CLOUD DECK AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
ADVISORIES CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OBSERVED AT CHESY LIGHT AND
DUCK PIER. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AS WELL
FALLING BELOW 6 FT BY 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT/10 KT
OR LESS/ WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.

USED THE NWPS WAVE MODEL WHICH WAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS AT 8 FT AS THE SWAN WAS FORECASTING SEAS
TO 9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. ALL THE WAVE MODELS
INDICATE RAPIDLY SUBSIDING SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT SEAS
TONIGHT IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT BUT NOT
AS CRITICAL AS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240437
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...RADAR IS INDICATING A WEAK FEATURE MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION OF EASTERN NC LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND
INCREASE. NO CLOUDS OR WEATHER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT THE
MODELS ARE TREATING IT AS A SORT OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AS
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THIS
SURGE IN WINDS OVER LAND WILL BE BRIEF BUT WILL BE STRONGER AND
MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS OVER LAND MAY ACTUALLY
DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH THE
NORMALLY COLDER SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S WITH LOWER 40S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC. WITH
FAIRLY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS EXPECTED PER LATEST 00Z MOS
WOULD NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC. DRYING DEWPOINTS AND SOME MIXING
WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE TO 20 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 06Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS MODERATE FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4-7 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
EARLY THIS MORNING SO NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES. EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/JME
MARINE...RSB/JBM/JME/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS HIT HARD THIS EVENING UNDER
A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES. ALSO ADJUSTED RH VALUES UP
A BIT AS THE DOWN-SLOPPING HAS SUBSIDED GIVEN CALM WINDS. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RH VALUES
NOT TRULY PLUMMETING UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO HAVE
MODIFIED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NWLY FLOW
AROUND 5-10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING
WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...DURING THE UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS HIT HARD THIS EVENING UNDER
A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES. ALSO ADJUSTED RH VALUES UP
A BIT AS THE DOWN-SLOPPING HAS SUBSIDED GIVEN CALM WINDS. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RH VALUES
NOT TRULY PLUMMETING UNTIL WINDS PICK UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT. SO HAVE
MODIFIED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NWLY FLOW
AROUND 5-10KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING
WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 232318
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC TROF WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A RENEWED
SURGE OF CAA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF
GDNC FOR LOW TEMPS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. COMPLETE DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH A VERY
LIGHT NW/N WIND AND SMALL T/TD SPREAD. SO DESPITE FCST LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S FOR SOME INLAND AREAS, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS
UNLIKELY ALTHO A FEW AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WELL
SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM
WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY
FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NE/E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
MARINE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY CAA SURGE MOVING DOWN
THE NC COAST LATER THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT
INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL THU AFTN
AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY TROF/FRONT WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT SCU OVER NE HALF OF AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF GDNC FOR TEMPS
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED LATE. FCST UPR 30S
FOR SRN COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. SOME ISOLATED FROST PSBL BUT NOT
ENOUGH THREAT TO METION IN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20
KT OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.
&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY TROF/FRONT WILL MOVE OFF COAST THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT SCU OVER NE HALF OF AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LEANED TO COOL SIDE OF GDNC FOR TEMPS
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH DECOUPLING WINDS EXPECTED LATE. FCST UPR 30S
FOR SRN COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. SOME ISOLATED FROST PSBL BUT NOT
ENOUGH THREAT TO METION IN FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER
AREA FROM N-NW IN MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH E-SE ACROSS AREA
DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS DURING AFTN...AND SEA BREEZE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 SW TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
A FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. IF
TIMING PLAYS OUT JUST RIGHT COULD SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AT 50 PERCENT...WITH ALL RAIN PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WITH
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GFS THROWN INTO THE MIX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ON MONDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL COUPLE
WITH A DEVELOPING TROF AND POSSIBLE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN US BY
WED.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLING DOWN
JUST SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC ON FRI AND MOVE
THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. FOLLOWING THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...SECONDARY CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE N-NW WINDS 15-20
KT OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VRBL THU AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WATERS.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT BY LATE THU AFTN. NO CHANGE TO
SCA FOR N OF OCRACOKE UNTIL 5 PM THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GFS...PREVIOUS FCST AND
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND SEAS
AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS PICKING UP MORE AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS CONTINUED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z WAVEWATCH...AND
PREDOMINATELY FOLLOWED IT FOLLOWED BY WW3 GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WITH LOW
RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW RH
EXPECTED FOR INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN THU BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VRBL...THUS FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CRITICAL.
&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/BM
MARINE...RSB/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231842
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPDATED TO DROP SCA FOR S OF OCRACOKE INLET AND
EXPIRATION OF SCA PAMLICO SOUND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231842
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPDATED TO DROP SCA FOR S OF OCRACOKE INLET AND
EXPIRATION OF SCA PAMLICO SOUND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE NW/NNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...THEN
SUBSIDE EARLY EVENING TO N/NE AROUND 5 KTS. WITH DRIER AIR COMING
INTO THE AREA...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.8 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...UPDATED FOR VARIABLE WINDS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NEXT
FEW HOURS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT THAT AREA HAS ALLOWED LOCAL WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL PERSIST SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL SECONDARY TROF MOVES
OFFSHORE WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW THROUGHOUT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1150 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE FOR CAA SCU SPREADING ACROSS NE
HALF OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. STLT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE
THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE DURING AFTN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM WED...SCALED BACK ON HIGHER SEAS FOR NRN HALF OF
WATERS THIS AFTN AS BUOYS OFF NRN OBX STILL REPORTING ONLY 3-4 FT.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
913 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY
12Z...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MOST OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND ARE EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND
DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL AID
DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY 12Z. DRY AND COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND PRODUCE GUSTY
NW WINDS TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST
20-25 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO
25 KT NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
LOOKOUT AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE
TODAY TO 10 TO 20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY SURGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH
EASTERN NC THURS WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. WEAK CAA WILL RULE MOST OF THE DAY INHIBITING THICKNESSES
FROM BUILDING ABOVE 1350 METERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 70 INLAND TO
60 ALONG THE OBX COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE LATE THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI. THE FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC FRI
NIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY 06/09Z. TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 80 INLAND ON FRI DUE TO PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW BUILDING
THICKNESSES TO 1375-1380 METERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.

WINDS SHIFT W/WSW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES BUILDING SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW 80S
INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO TWO SAT NIGHT WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INDUCE MODERATE CAA IN N/NE FLOW WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING TO 1350-1360 METERS SUN YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS WNW/NW SAT THROUGH MON.

SAT NIGHTS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HANG UP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON THROUGH TUES...THOUGH
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON/MON NIGHT THEN CHANCE ON TUES
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NC. TEMPS SUN/MON/TUES
NIGHT REMAIN MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS...AND MAX TEMPS MON/TUES
SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO WINDS SHIFTING SE/S THOUGH REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS N/NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM WED...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE TRAVERSES THE EASTERN NC WATERS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA
HEADLINE WHERE SEAS 6 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURS AFTERNOON FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT
WITH WINDS VEERING N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ROUGH SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS WITH MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WAVEWATCH...USED A BLEND THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE THEN THE LATEST WAVEWATCH AS WINDS/SEAS APPEARED
REASONABLE COMPARED TO OUR FORECAST WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW
WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25%
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THIS EVENING. THE PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED AND WE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN NC WILL CLEAR OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH AFTER 06Z. CLEARING AND GOOD POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP
MIN TEMPS TO THE LOWER 50S INLAND AND MID 50S COAST ON A NW
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT IN A FRESHENING NW FLOW. THESE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH SCA CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE NRN
WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC/JME
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING AND GOOD
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST ON A NW BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25
MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEARING AND GOOD
POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID
50S COAST ON A NW BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SKIES MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25
MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM/BTC
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS62 KMHX 222334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
734 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACRS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE WAVE AND SFC TROF MOVE THRU
THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AND
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEABREEZE BNDRY SO WONT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS AS YET.
CHANCES FOR TSTMS ALSO LOOKING VERY LIMITED GIVEN DAYTIME HEAT
LOSS AND WEAK FORCING BUT WILL LEAVE AN ISOLATED MENTION THIS
UPDATE FOR NOW.

DECENT POST FRONTAL CAA WILL DROP MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND
TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS
FCST. SHORT DURATION MVFR PSBLY IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS TO
OCCUR ON STATION.

THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NW
FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW 15-25 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222012
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AREA
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM W-NW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD COAST WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER AREA...AND ADJUSTED POPS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
40 POPS FOR WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND 30% FOR COAST. SVR
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS PSBL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDEX VALUES UP TO 44 KT.

LINGERING SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS ALONG COAST 03Z-06Z...THEN CLEARING IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH
MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS FCST. PERIOD OF MVFR PSBLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW FLOW 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222012
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AREA
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL
MOVE IN FROM W-NW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS WEAKEN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD COAST WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER AREA...AND ADJUSTED POPS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
40 POPS FOR WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND 30% FOR COAST. SVR
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT STRONGER WIND GUSTS PSBL WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDEX VALUES UP TO 44 KT.

LINGERING SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS ALONG COAST 03Z-06Z...THEN CLEARING IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NW DURING THE DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
BUT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS AFTN...MAINLY
AROUND 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTEDTOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH
MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS FCST. PERIOD OF MVFR PSBLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SW FLOW 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SCA SPREADING TO NRN WATERS AS WELL.

LATEST NWPS AND WW3 SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 6 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPING NRN WATERS
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 300 PM TUE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF OUTER BANKS WED WITH RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20 MPH. SPS ISSUED
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NCFS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM
FIRE WEATHER...JBM
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
155 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING WITH SFC FRONT AND SHRT
WV TROF. LATEST MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE BUT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER DOES SUPPORT
POTENTIAL STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH WINDEX UP TO 44 KTS. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS INTO LOWER 80S INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELD POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND PSBLY A TSTM WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCSH
MENTION IN TAFS WITH THIS FCST. PERIOD OF MVFR PSBLY WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT INTO WED.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...UPDATED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS
REST OF TODAY AND EXTENDED INTO THU AS WELL. DIAMOND BUOY STILL
REPORTING SEAS AROUND 6 FT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...THUS ANY DROP BELOW 6FT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. REST OF FCST
ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND WERE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS PRIND ARE THAT
SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
WERE AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE
MODERATE PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221547
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS AREA LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EVENING WITH SFC FRONT AND SHRT
WV TROF. LATEST MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CAPE BUT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER DOES SUPPORT
POTENTIAL STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH WINDEX UP TO 44 KTS. TEMPS ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS INTO LOWER 80S INLAND.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELD POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY 12Z. EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT AS ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...UPDATED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS
REST OF TODAY AND EXTENDED INTO THU AS WELL. DIAMOND BUOY STILL
REPORTING SEAS AROUND 6 FT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...THUS ANY DROP BELOW 6FT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. REST OF FCST
ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND WERE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS PRIND ARE THAT
SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
WERE AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE
MODERATE PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELD POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY 12Z. EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT AS ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND WERE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS PRIND ARE THAT
SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
WERE AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE
MODERATE PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221028
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELD POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER IN
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY 12Z. EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT AS ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DRYNESS OF
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND WERE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS PRIND ARE THAT
SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
WERE AROUND 20 KT WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE
MODERATE PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC/JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220736
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELP POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON FORECAST THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG FORECASTING
TOOLS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AWAY FROM A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT INDICATING ONLY A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
(8-11Z) OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV AND KISO
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT. WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
AND A WET GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE CURRENTLY 5-7 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS PRIND ARE THAT SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT NORTHERN WATERS BY 7
AM AND CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN
HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS
WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE AROUND 20 KT
WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE MODERATE PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6
FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220736
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE. SHALLOW FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EARLY INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
COOLER LOW TO MIDDLE 70S OUTER BANKS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AROUND 20Z. THE 4 KM WRF-NMM
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION BRINGING A LINE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NSSL WRF
WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS LINE INDICATING DISSIPATION BEFORE
CROSSING EASTERN NC. THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY SO
HAVE HELP POPS TO THE LOW END OF CHANCE. WPC QPF WAS ONLY AROUND
0.10 WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH LIS -2/-4...MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.4" WILL MENTION
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDER LATE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH BASED ON FORECAST THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND
03Z AND CERTAINLY BY 06Z BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST MODELS SO
HAVE ENDED THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES
WILL CLEARING AS A NW FLOW OF COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED AND THU...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS FOR WED
AND THU SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S INLAND. COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...LOWS
IN THE 40S. HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 70S/80 DEGREES. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERED BY DAMPENING SHORTWAVE AND
SEABREEZE. WILL CONTINUE LOW END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...WITH SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE SUN AND MON. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL NEAR THE AREA...THOUGH LIKELY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ECMWF
THEN SHOWS WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
MON...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS SSW FLOW. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POP FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG FORECASTING
TOOLS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AWAY FROM A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT INDICATING ONLY A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
(8-11Z) OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV AND KISO
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT. WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
AND A WET GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM TUESDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE CURRENTLY 5-7 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS PRIND ARE THAT SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT NORTHERN WATERS BY 7
AM AND CENTRAL WATERS BY 11 AM. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE. DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN
HOW STRONG THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS
WAS STRONGEST AT 25 KT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE AROUND 20 KT
WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. HOWEVER THESE MODERATE PRE AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCA SEAS OF 6
FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
SCA HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE REISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
EARLY WED WITH CAA...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THOUGH SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-7FT WED INTO THU AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER NWLY SURGE 15-20KT WED NIGHT/EARLY
THU...AGAIN WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRI.
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT...UP TO 5FT
FOR OUTER CENTRAL WATERS. INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SAT WINDS LESS THAN 15KT...WNW EARLY THEN
BACKING BECOMING SWLY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW LATER TODAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220441
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
FALLING AT A GOOD CLIP. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BUT DOUBT
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE BUFKIT FOG TOOL SUGGEST
THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NOT LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONLY A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED AND ONLY BRIEFLY AT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG FORECASTING
TOOLS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AWAY FROM A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT INDICATING ONLY A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
(8-11Z) OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV AND KISO
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT. WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
AND A WET GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE SO WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE WHILE CONTINUING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 6 TO
9 FT AND WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY 10 KT OR LESS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC/JME/LEP
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220441
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CRESTING OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
FALLING AT A GOOD CLIP. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BUT DOUBT
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE BUFKIT FOG TOOL SUGGEST
THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NOT LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ONLY A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED AND ONLY BRIEFLY AT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART THE FOG FORECASTING
TOOLS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AWAY FROM A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT INDICATING ONLY A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
(8-11Z) OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV AND KISO
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY CARRY
SHOWER VICINITY AT THIS POINT. WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM
AND A WET GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FT SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE SO WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE WHILE CONTINUING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 6 TO
9 FT AND WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY 10 KT OR LESS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JME
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC/JME/LEP
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220218
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...FORECAST TEMPS NEEDED A BIT OF ADJUSTMENT
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED THIS ACCORDING TO TRENDS AND HAVE LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPS OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE SECTOR. WITH SOME
CIRRUS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...THIS MAY ALSO HELP TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BUT TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TRENDED FURTHER
DOWNWARD IF CLOUDS BREAK AND WITH WINDS DECOUPLED. LOWS EXPECTED
IN THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPWARD TOWARD NAGS HEAD/MANTEO AND NEAR
50 CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BEACHES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST SATELLITE. STILL EXPECT WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM INLAND OVERNIGHT. GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AND WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S AT THE
BEACHES. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP LATE ATOP
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND A WET
GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SHOWS NO FOG
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT KOAJ. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANY FOG MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH SEAS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT
IN THE NORTH...6 TO 9FT IN THE CENTRAL (WITH EXCEPTION TO DIAMOND
BUOY SITTING AT 10 FT) AND 3 TO 5 FT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE
SEEN SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SLOWLY COMING
DOWN THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CURRENT
OBS SHOWING 10-15KTS. KEPT SCA IN THE SOUTHERN UNTIL 2AM...WITH
THE FEELING THAT SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA AT THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AND
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA STATUS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN LEGS ON THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER
EVALUATING TRENDS IN WAVE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY AND SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC/LEP
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220218
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...FORECAST TEMPS NEEDED A BIT OF ADJUSTMENT
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED THIS ACCORDING TO TRENDS AND HAVE LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPS OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NE SECTOR. WITH SOME
CIRRUS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...THIS MAY ALSO HELP TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BUT TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TRENDED FURTHER
DOWNWARD IF CLOUDS BREAK AND WITH WINDS DECOUPLED. LOWS EXPECTED
IN THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPWARD TOWARD NAGS HEAD/MANTEO AND NEAR
50 CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BEACHES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION.
SKIES ARE CLEAR BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST SATELLITE. STILL EXPECT WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM INLAND OVERNIGHT. GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AND WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S AT THE
BEACHES. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP LATE ATOP
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND A WET
GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SHOWS NO FOG
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT KOAJ. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANY FOG MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH SEAS STILL ELEVATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT
IN THE NORTH...6 TO 9FT IN THE CENTRAL (WITH EXCEPTION TO DIAMOND
BUOY SITTING AT 10 FT) AND 3 TO 5 FT IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE
SEEN SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SLOWLY COMING
DOWN THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CURRENT
OBS SHOWING 10-15KTS. KEPT SCA IN THE SOUTHERN UNTIL 2AM...WITH
THE FEELING THAT SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA AT THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AND
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA STATUS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
EXTEND THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN LEGS ON THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER
EVALUATING TRENDS IN WAVE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY AND SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC/LEP
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212257
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST SATELLITE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM INLAND OVERNIGHT. GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AND WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S AT THE
BEACHES. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP LATE ATOP
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND A WET
GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SHOWS NO FOG
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT KOAJ. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANY FOG MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW
15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AND WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BELOW SCA STATUS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. MAY EXTEND THE SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN LEGS ON THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER EVALUATING TRENDS
IN WAVE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
AND SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212257
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER LATEST SATELLITE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM INLAND OVERNIGHT. GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AND WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S AT THE
BEACHES. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP LATE ATOP
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND A WET
GROUND IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SHOWS NO FOG
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT KOAJ. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANY FOG MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW
15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AND WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BELOW SCA STATUS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. MAY EXTEND THE SCA
FOR THE SOUTHERN LEGS ON THE NEXT UPDATE AFTER EVALUATING TRENDS
IN WAVE OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY
AND SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/BTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BTC
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211914
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
314 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE UNDER A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DRY
WESTERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING CALM INLAND OVERNIGHT. GOOD OPPORTUNITY
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE AND WILL FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S AT THE
BEACHES. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP LATE ATOP
THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO BREACH THE 80 DEG MARK AWAY FROM THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE WATER WHILE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HOLDS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF. MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MEAGER WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM MON...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO DIVERGE STARTING FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ECMWF A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFSENS SOLUTIONS. EVEN SO WETTEST MODEL STILL SHOWING NOT AN AWFUL
LOT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER ENERGY APPEARS
FAIRLY WEAK. SO AM EXPECTING ONLY LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
VFR/MAINLY SKC AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT PATCHY RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
SATURATED GROUND AS WINDS GO CALM LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE
SUNRISE. ANY FOG MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BLO 6 FT TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY AND SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATUDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MON...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT. FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT WITH 6 FT SEAS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCA CRITERIA...BUT SEAS COULD BE 6 FT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INOT THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON
CONTENTNEA CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
WILL MONITOR WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE
ISSUING A POSSIBLE FLW TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
118 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC TODAY BUT WITH WITH A WANING
INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND WELL OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MAINLY SUNNY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS CUD FILL BACK
IN AS SFC HEATING WORKS ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. WILL CALL SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUE WITH
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THOUGH WITH
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SWLY FLOW BRINGS A
MODEST WARM UP TUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO AROUND
70 ALONG THE COAST. CAA RAMPS UP LATE TUES NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR WED AND
THURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRI WITH SW FLOW AND
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST. KEEPING SLT CHC TO LOW END
CHC POPS FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER
WEAK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING AND
SOME MODELS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONITNUE TO ERODE WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL BACK IN
DUE TO SFC HEATING AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT EXPECT
MAINLY SCT LAYERS AND/OR VFR CIGS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PATCHY
RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SATURATED GROUND AS WINDS GO CALM
LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY
SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY FOG MIXES OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT COASTAL WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH INLAND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE NEEDED FOR
COASTAL WATERS THRU EARLY TUESDAY AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
BLO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LINGERING 6FT SEAS ON THE CENTRAL WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP TO 3-5FT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT
TO SW TUE AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6 FT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH A NWLY SURGE AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TUES NIGHT BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS...HOWEVER MODELS KEEP WINDS AROUND 15-20
KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5 FT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED FLOOD WARNING FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING
THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON CONTENTNEA
CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE ISSUING A
POSSIBLE FLW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AS
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
118 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC TODAY BUT WITH WITH A WANING
INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND WELL OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MAINLY SUNNY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS CUD FILL BACK
IN AS SFC HEATING WORKS ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID
AFTERNOON THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. WILL CALL SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUE WITH
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THOUGH WITH
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SWLY FLOW BRINGS A
MODEST WARM UP TUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO AROUND
70 ALONG THE COAST. CAA RAMPS UP LATE TUES NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR WED AND
THURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRI WITH SW FLOW AND
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST. KEEPING SLT CHC TO LOW END
CHC POPS FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER
WEAK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING AND
SOME MODELS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS CONITNUE TO ERODE WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FILL BACK IN
DUE TO SFC HEATING AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT EXPECT
MAINLY SCT LAYERS AND/OR VFR CIGS THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PATCHY
RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SATURATED GROUND AS WINDS GO CALM
LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY
SEE INTERVALS OF IFR AS WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY FOG MIXES OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS BEFORE NOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT COASTAL WATERS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH INLAND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE NEEDED FOR
COASTAL WATERS THRU EARLY TUESDAY AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
BLO 6 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LINGERING 6FT SEAS ON THE CENTRAL WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP TO 3-5FT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT
TO SW TUE AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6 FT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH A NWLY SURGE AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TUES NIGHT BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS...HOWEVER MODELS KEEP WINDS AROUND 15-20
KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5 FT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED FLOOD WARNING FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING
THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON HOOKERTON ON CONTENTNEA
CREEK FOR LOW END MINOR FLOODING BEGINNING TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND RFC FORECAST UPDATES BEFORE ISSUING A
POSSIBLE FLW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AS
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities