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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO
INIT T/TD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HWY
17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. CONT
CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTN THOUGH
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONT VCSH AT ISO AND PGV TAF SITES AFT 17Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO
INIT T/TD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HWY
17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. CONT
CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTN THOUGH
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONT VCSH AT ISO AND PGV TAF SITES AFT 17Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281046
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF
HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281046
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF
HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE
WINDS 5-10KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS
2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280641
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS
5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280641
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS
5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280641
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS
5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280641
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND
WEAK BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST
OF HWY 17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN
YESTERDAY...GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY DEEP INLAND FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE
TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS
5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES
AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. GRADIENT
TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. GRADIENT
TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CQD/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. GRADIENT
TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CQD/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCT DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. GRADIENT
TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...CCG/BTC/CQD/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/CCG/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/CCG/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 280201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/CCG/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 280201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/CCG/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 272332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...JUST ABOUT ALL CONVECTION IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
EVENING POPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 272332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...JUST ABOUT ALL CONVECTION IS JUST OUTSIDE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
EVENING POPS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BKN
LOW CLOUD DECK ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD SAVE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...HSA/CGG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/CCG/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271848
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS HELPED INITIATE A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENING...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE HAVE INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWRS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED SO VICINITY IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SAFE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS
MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271848
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS HELPED INITIATE A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENING...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE THAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY
SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL RENEW DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND NUDGES OT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE HAVE INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWRS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED SO VICINITY IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SAFE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS
MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AS LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...WEAK OFFSHORE INVERTED TROF AND SECONDARY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING
TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO
THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1226 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1216 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON A
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE HAVE INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWRS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED SO VICINITY IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SAFE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS
MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS LOW
LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1218 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1226 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1216 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON A
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE. SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE HAVE INITIATED ISOLATED SHOWRS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED SO VICINITY IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SAFE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR IF ANY SHOWERS
MOVE OVER/NEAR TAF SITES. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS LOW
LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1218 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 932 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST 00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH
MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT
LOW CHANCE. THE NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE SHEAR AND FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 5
TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 932 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST 00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH
MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT
LOW CHANCE. THE NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE SHEAR AND FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 5
TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 932 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST 00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH
MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT
LOW CHANCE. THE NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE SHEAR AND FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 5
TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 271335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 932 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST 00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH
MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT
LOW CHANCE. THE NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE SHEAR AND FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE
SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 934 AM WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO
4 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 5
TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE THE HIGH SLIDES
FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL INCREASING A BIT WITH
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 271050
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
650 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE
REGION FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST 00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH MODELS
SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND W OF HWY 17 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP
AT LOW CHANCE. THE NAM REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT
GIVEN LITTLE SHEAR AND FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN
TYPE SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. SCT SEABREEZE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND
15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW S WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-3FT. SLY WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY AT 10-15KT AND 2-3FT.
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT WITH S/SSE WINDS AOB 10KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL
CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL
INCREASING A BIT WITH SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270705
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SE NC...AND
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE A QUICK LIGHT SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND W OF HWY 17
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT LOW CHANCE. THE NAM
REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN LITTLE SHEAR AND
FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS/ISO
TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE AT OAJ AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW S WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
2-4FT. SLY SURGE WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BECOMING 10-15KT AND 2-3FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT
WITH S/SSE WINDS AOB 10KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL
CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL
INCREASING A BIT WITH SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270705
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SE NC...AND
SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE A QUICK LIGHT SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
00Z RUNS AND HRRR/NSSL WRF...WITH MODELS SHOWING SCT SEABREEZE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SSW ZONES THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND W OF HWY 17
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL CAP AT LOW CHANCE. THE NAM
REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS...BUT GIVEN LITTLE SHEAR AND
FORCING EXPECT JUST TYPICAL DIURNAL POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS/ISO
TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD TAPER OFF
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
A BIT THRU LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...MAINLY INLAND
COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL CYCLES/SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. FOR NOW THUR LOOKS TO HAVE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE CLOSE BY...WITH FRI THE
DRIEST AS RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN.

LATE IN PERIOD GFS HAS BECOME MUCH FASTER PUSHING FRONT THRU SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH WETTER COOLER CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST MUCH WITH FRONT REMAINING
MAINLY N OF REGION TIL TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHCS OF SHRA AND
TSRA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH AROUND 70 CST. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT TUE
WITH POSS OF FRONT SAGGING INTO REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE AT OAJ AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
WATERS FROM OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW S WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS
2-4FT. SLY SURGE WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BECOMING 10-15KT AND 2-3FT. GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT
WITH S/SSE WINDS AOB 10KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THRU THURSDAY. SECONDARY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING
LIGHT. WINDS VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE
THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E AND TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. SEAS WILL
CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW SE SWELL
INCREASING A BIT WITH SOME 5 FOOT SEAS POSS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE AT OAJ AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW GUSTY SLY WINDS 10-20KT WITH
SEAS 2-4FT. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR. SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3
FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/CQD/DAG
MARINE...RF/BTC/CTC/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE AT OAJ AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW GUSTY SLY WINDS 10-20KT WITH
SEAS 2-4FT. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR. SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3
FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/CQD/DAG
MARINE...RF/BTC/CTC/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE
AND OBS TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR REMAINS LOW SO WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY INCLUDE AT OAJ AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW GUSTY SLY WINDS 10-20KT WITH
SEAS 2-4FT. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR. SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3
FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/CQD/DAG
MARINE...RF/BTC/CTC/CQD/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH HAVE
LIMITED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS OVER MOST THE SOUNDS AND ALOT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR.
SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH HAVE
LIMITED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS OVER MOST THE SOUNDS AND ALOT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR.
SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH HAVE
LIMITED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS OVER MOST THE SOUNDS AND ALOT OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT SLACKENS PER LATEST 3KM HRRR.
SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
825 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS,
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND TO REMOVE POPS/WX FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED. STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH HAVE
LIMITED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT
DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY AND HATTERAS TIDE GAUGE. INCREASED WINDS A FEW
KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/RF/BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 270025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
825 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS,
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND TO REMOVE POPS/WX FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED. STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF
SOME STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH HAVE
LIMITED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT
DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY AND HATTERAS TIDE GAUGE. INCREASED WINDS A FEW
KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINATED AT 3 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY YIELDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN LOOSE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/RF/BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 157 PM TUE...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
KICKED OFF SOME SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FOREAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTE THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF SOME
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM TUE...ISOLATED MVFR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE.
GRADIENT WITH REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CCG/RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/RF/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 157 PM TUE...STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO EXTEND IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
KICKED OFF SOME SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FOREAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTE THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE OF CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD KICK OFF SOME
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU LATE WEEK
BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
CYCLES/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. BY MONDAY THE RDG WILL BEGIN TO
GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO OHIO
VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP ESPCLY
INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM TUE...ISOLATED MVFR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EXTENDING OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE.
GRADIENT WITH REMAIN LOOSE FOR SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST THRU THURSDAY. WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT WITH SFC FLOW BACKING TO EAST/NE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO SE/SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE OFFSHORE SFC
TROF WASHES OUT OR DEAMPLIFIES. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...BUT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...CCG/RF/BTC
MARINE...CCG/RF/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...


AS OF 100 PM TUE...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW TO MID
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RISE ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH
INCREASING SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM TUE...ISOLATED MVFR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 107 PM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP LOOSE
GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS SHOWS
SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...


AS OF 100 PM TUE...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW TO MID
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RISE ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES WITH
INCREASING SKY COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 104 PM TUE...ISOLATED MVFR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 107 PM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP LOOSE
GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS SHOWS
SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS
EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 929 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A
WEAK TROUGH FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOW/MID CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 931 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
LOOSE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 929 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A
WEAK TROUGH FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOW/MID CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 931 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
LOOSE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 929 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A
WEAK TROUGH FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOW/MID CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 931 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
LOOSE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261332
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
932 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 929 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA BUT WITH A
WEAK TROUGH FORMING ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
TROUGH AND INCREASED MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOW/MID CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 931 AM TUE...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
LOOSE GRADIENT AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...CGG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO
SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST
00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT
SEABREEZE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING
UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261051
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
651 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO
SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST
00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT
SEABREEZE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE THOUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE FOR
EWN/OAJ/ISO...WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING
UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO
SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST
00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE
WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT SEABREEZE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...MAINLY
FOR EWN/OAJ/ISO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS
1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING
UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO
SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST
00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE
WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT SEABREEZE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...MAINLY
FOR EWN/OAJ/ISO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS
1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING
UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260645
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD ISO
SHOWER/TSTM MENTION ACROSS THE SSW CWA THIS AFTERNOON...PER LATEST
00Z MODEL RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR/NSSL WRF. THINK STRONG RIDGE
WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION...BUT SEABREEZE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST KEEPING AREA MAINLY DRY THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER RDG JUST OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN A BIT THRU MID TO
LATE WEEK BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS NOW A LITTLE FURTHER W WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MID TO LATE WEEK AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP. KEPT ISOLD POP DEEP INLAND THU THRU SUN AS
CANT RULE OUT SEA BRZ POSS IGNITING A SHRA/OR STORM BUT EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY THE RDG
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION AND MAY SEE A BIT BETTER CVRG OF PRECIP
ESPCLY INLAND.

LOW LVL THICKNESSES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S/LOW 80S BEACHES. LOWS WILL CONT
IN THE 60S INLAND WITH BEACHES UPR 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...MAINLY
FOR EWN/OAJ/ISO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRADUALLY MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE
QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW SLY WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS
1-3FT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SLY FLOW 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT. NWPS SHOWS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING
UP TO 4FT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST.
SPEEDS WILL CONT AT 5 TO 15 KTS TYPICALLY HIGHEST DURING AFTN AND
EVENING AND LOWEST EARLY IN MORN. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4
FEET...AS SE SWELL DEVELOPS LATER IN WEEK THE COVERAGE OF 4 FOOT
SEAS MAY EXPAND BIT AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FAR OUTER
CNTRL WTRS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260440
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION...MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A
SCATTERED STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. LIGHT
SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT
TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...MAINLY
FOR EWN/OAJ/ISO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
TUE WITH SLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 1-3FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260234
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPT AND WINDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION...MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS
DECK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260234
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPT AND WINDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION...MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS
DECK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260234
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPT AND WINDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION...MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS
DECK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260234
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1034 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPT AND WINDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND OVER THE REGION...MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS
DECK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 252329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM GRIDS, THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY LEAD TO A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE
ENOUGH EXTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY STRATUS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAINLY FOR
OAJ/EWN SHOULD ANY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SSE/S WINDS
8-14 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 30
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1-2 FEET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CCG/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251845
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SE/S FLOW WILL LEAD TO PERHAPS A
FEW STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT
AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON TUESDAY
AS TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...AS EXPECTED PER EARLIER RUNS OF THE 3KM
HRRR...SEEING A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT CURRENTLY WINDS WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS AT DUCK. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS
OR LESS BY LATE EVENING. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1 TO 2 FEET AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251845
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH LINGERS OFFSHORE. A SE/S FLOW WILL LEAD TO PERHAPS A
FEW STRATUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT
AS TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST...DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 60S ON TUESDAY
AS TEMPERATURES EDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND AND LOWER 80S BEACHES. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1228 PM MON...RIDGING ALOFT WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENERGY FROM LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN RIDGE A LITTLE AND SUPPRESS IT TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS DRY. BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 60S WARMING TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1231 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SMALL CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN PREDAWN
FOG/STRATUS EACH DAY. WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SUB VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...AS EXPECTED PER EARLIER RUNS OF THE 3KM
HRRR...SEEING A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT CURRENTLY WINDS WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS AT DUCK. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN TO 10 KNOTS
OR LESS BY LATE EVENING. SEAS CONTINUES AT 1 TO 2 FEET AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1234 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOOSE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SPEEDS TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251656
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR A FEW WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
IN CONTROL. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOIST SLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MID/UPR RIDGE WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THRU THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHCS ESPCLY
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MCLR TO PC SKIES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 6OS WITH AROUND 70
BEACHES. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TUE TO UPR
80S AROUND 90 LATER IN PERIOD...BEACHES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRAD MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...BUT SPEEDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET. LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10
TO 15 KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING MAINLY S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWEST LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND PEAK DURING AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
THRU THE PERIOD...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251656
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1256 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR A FEW WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MON...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
IN CONTROL. COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ALONG
THE COAST WITH MOIST SLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...MID/UPR RIDGE WILL CONT NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
COAST THRU THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP CHCS ESPCLY
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MCLR TO PC SKIES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
FROM THE S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 6OS WITH AROUND 70
BEACHES. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TUE TO UPR
80S AROUND 90 LATER IN PERIOD...BEACHES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

WILL CONT WITH SLIGHT POPS INLAND THU AND FRI AFTN AS AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THIS AREA...AND INLAND MOVING SEA BRZ
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH JUST A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TODAY. WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE OF A LARGE ENOUGH EXTENT TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS
LOW LVLS GRAD MOISTEN BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE
LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY
EVENING DEEP INLAND LATE IN WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...BUT SPEEDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET. LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
THAT GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 10
TO 15 KNOTS WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINING MAINLY S WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWEST LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND PEAK DURING AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
THRU THE PERIOD...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD




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