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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH MENTION OF HVY RAFL PSBL AS HIGH RES MODELS CONT
SHOW BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP THERE. ALREADY HAVE HAD SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND AREAS. INCREASED POPS ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAIN TO CHC 25-40% POPS...WITH HIGHER CHC POPS ACRS INTERIOR
SXNS. ALSO MADE MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN ALONG THE COAST.
SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO
JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING PSBL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 80S COASTAL
SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MORE
NMRS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND
08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS LIKELY 3-6 FT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE S. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE
TO OREGON INLET WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFTN THEN VEERS TO
WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS
THIS AFTN WITH MENTION OF HVY RAFL PSBL AS HIGH RES MODELS CONT
SHOW BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIP THERE. ALREADY HAVE HAD SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND AREAS. INCREASED POPS ACRS THE COASTAL
PLAIN TO CHC 25-40% POPS...WITH HIGHER CHC POPS ACRS INTERIOR
SXNS. ALSO MADE MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN ALONG THE COAST.
SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO
JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS AFTN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING PSBL. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPR 80S COASTAL
SECTIONS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MORE
NMRS ALG COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. WINDS S 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND
08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS LIKELY 3-6 FT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE S. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE
TO OREGON INLET WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFTN THEN VEERS TO
WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE BUT DID ADD MENTION OF
HVY RAFL FOR SERN PART OF CWFA PRIMARILY COASTAL SECTIONS. ALSO MADE
MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA GOES INTO EFFECT
FROM OCRACOKE S AT 11 AM THIS MORN. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE BUT DID ADD MENTION OF
HVY RAFL FOR SERN PART OF CWFA PRIMARILY COASTAL SECTIONS. ALSO MADE
MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA GOES INTO EFFECT
FROM OCRACOKE S AT 11 AM THIS MORN. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE BUT DID ADD MENTION OF
HVY RAFL FOR SERN PART OF CWFA PRIMARILY COASTAL SECTIONS. ALSO MADE
MINOR T/TD TWEAKS TO INIT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA GOES INTO EFFECT
FROM OCRACOKE S AT 11 AM THIS MORN. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. MADE MINOR
T/TD TWEAKS FOR INIT CONDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA GOES INTO EFFECT
FROM OCRACOKE S AT 11 AM THIS MORN. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. MADE MINOR
T/TD TWEAKS FOR INIT CONDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM TUE...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. CURRENTLY S-SW
WINDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS ACRS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS WHERE A SCA GOES INTO EFFECT
FROM OCRACOKE S AT 11 AM THIS MORN. SCA FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
FROM OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET AT 3 PM THIS AFTN. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY
SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO CURRENT FORECAST SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/HSA
MARINE...JAC/RF/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041105
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER
LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
RAIN CHANCES ONLY 20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL- DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO
NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER LOW...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE RAIN CHANCES ONLY
20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040642
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WELL- DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT PRESENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
ALONG THE COAST. SETUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO
NEWPORT TO JACKSONVILLE. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...GROUND ABSORBED MUCH OF YESTERDAYS
RAINFALL SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT IS RATHER LOW...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE RAIN CHANCES ONLY
20-30%...TO MID 80S SOUTH COAST AND OUTER BANKS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SURFACE/UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND HAVE TAPERED OFF PRECIP FROM THE WEST ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO BE PRECIP-FREE AFTER 06Z. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...DRIER AND HOT WED AS HGTS ALOFT RISE A BIT WITH
LIMITED FORCING FOR PRECIP. COULD BE SOME SHRA NEAR CST EARLY
THEN WILL SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
AND CONT INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCES DECENT INSTAB.
HIGHS WED AROUND 95 INLAND TO UPR 80S/LOW 90S CST. MUGGY WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD TO A
BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTN ESPCLY INLAND. WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH INLAND AREAS LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
BEACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A
FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR OR JUST TO THE W. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
COMBINED WITH LOWER THICKNESSES WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DGR RANGE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT PREV FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH
UPR TRF SHIFTING OFF THE CST WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING
OVER THE REGION. WILL CONT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF UPR 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID
80S CST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...SETUP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
INLAND AT PGV AND ISO. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
END QUICKLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
LEAVING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 08Z.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MAINLY VFR WED THRU THU MORN WITH LIMITED
THREAT OF CONVECTION...AS USUAL PATCHY FOG/ST POSS EARLY IN THE
MORN. SHRA/TSRA SHLD INCREASE LATER THU AND CONT INTO SAT AS UPR
TRF DEVELOPS TO THE W WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE AREA. WILL STILL
SEE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PDS OF SUB VFR WHEN
CONVECTION CROSSES. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND
USED A BLEND OF THE 03/12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALL ZONES
THROUGH TODAY THEN VEERS TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.
LATEST RUN OF NWPS SHOWS VERY SIMILAR FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...TRICKY FCST AS MDLS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
LOCATION OF WEAK FRONTS IN THE REGION MAKING WIND DIR/SPEED
DIFFICULT.

ANY LINGERING SCA SEAS SHLD END EARLY WED CNTRL WTRS WITH W WINDS
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING MORE SW IN THE AFTN. BNDRY WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SW WINDS CONT SRN TIER AND MORE E
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE N...SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WED MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE WED
AND THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AS AS STRONGER TROF/LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE W...FOR NOW HAVE SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS FRI
AFTN/EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. AS FRONT REACHES
CST SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VARIABLE DIR...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 040458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 040458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 040458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/TL/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER
00Z ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 PM MON...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...WITH OCNL
GUSTS AOA 25 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON BUMPING UP AND EXPANDING THE SCA
AT THIS TIME AS THINK THAT THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS HOWEVER AND
MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES IF THE HIGHER GUSTS
PERSIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/DAG/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER
00Z ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 PM MON...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. STILL OBSERVING
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...WITH OCNL
GUSTS AOA 25 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON BUMPING UP AND EXPANDING THE SCA
AT THIS TIME AS THINK THAT THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME
THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS HOWEVER AND
MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE IN LATER UPDATES IF THE HIGHER GUSTS
PERSIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/DAG/LEP
HYDROLOGY...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AS MAIN AREA OF LIFT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE CAN
STILL EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER
00Z ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 PM MON...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM MON...STILL OBSERVING SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA...WITH OCNL GUSTS AOA 25 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
BUMPING UP AND EXPANDING THE SCA AT THIS TIME AS THINK THAT THE
HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NEAR TERM TRENDS HOWEVER AND MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE IN LATER
UPDATES IF THE HIGHER GUSTS PERSIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 415 PM MON...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHTENED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/DAG/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX





000
FXUS62 KMHX 032307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE EVENING
AS MAIN AREA OF LIFT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE CAN
STILL EXPECT OCNL SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM FOR COASTAL AREAS
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS AFTER
00Z ACCORDINGLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 PM MON...DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...
MOVING INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVY RAIN
AREA MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH AS KEWN AND KOAJ REMAINS IN QUESTION...
THOUGH IF IT DOES THEN MVFR OR IFR CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY IN
LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM MON...STILL OBSERVING SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA...WITH OCNL GUSTS AOA 25 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
BUMPING UP AND EXPANDING THE SCA AT THIS TIME AS THINK THAT THE
HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NEAR TERM TRENDS HOWEVER AND MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE IN LATER
UPDATES IF THE HIGHER GUSTS PERSIST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 415 PM MON...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHTENED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WE ARE EVALUATING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
TUESDAY AS 03/18Z MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH AREA OF STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. EXPECTED TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS ONCE AGAIN ON TOP OF WET
SOILS ALONG THE COAST COULD PRESENT A FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/DAG/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 032016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031943
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF/ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY YIELDING MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL HOLD OF HOISTING SCA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH MAY NEED AN SCA FOR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS,
TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL
HOIST SCAS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA
FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031943
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF/ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY YIELDING MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL HOLD OF HOISTING SCA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH MAY NEED AN SCA FOR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS,
TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL
HOIST SCAS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA
FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031857
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF/ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY YIELDING MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL HOLD OF HOISTING SCA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH MAY NEED AN SCA FOR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS,
TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL
HOIST SCAS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031857
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF/ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY YIELDING MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL HOLD OF HOISTING SCA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH MAY NEED AN SCA FOR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS,
TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL
HOIST SCAS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031857
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD OF/ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY YIELDING MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED SO WILL HOLD OF HOISTING SCA AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH MAY NEED AN SCA FOR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS,
TO 10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. WILL
HOIST SCAS WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MON...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER. GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING,
STREAMING SW TO NE ALONG A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OFFSHORE THOUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH COAST. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS
DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST...A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM AS
H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND
AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...WILL LEAD TO
AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-5 FT, THOUGH DIAMOND SHOALS HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A 6 FT SEA BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS, TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
6 FT SEA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER FRINGES.



LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031816
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM MON...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER. GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING,
STREAMING SW TO NE ALONG A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OFFSHORE THOUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH COAST. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS
DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST...A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM AS
H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND
AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...WILL LEAD TO
AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-5 FT, THOUGH DIAMOND SHOALS HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A 6 FT SEA BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS, TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
6 FT SEA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER FRINGES.



LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A
SHORT-LIVED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031356
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 950 AM MON...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER. GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING,
STREAMING SW TO NE ALONG A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OFFSHORE THOUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH COAST. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS
DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-5 FT, THOUGH DIAMOND SHOALS HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A 6 FT SEA BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS, TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
6 FT SEA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER FRINGES.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...DAG/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/DAG/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031356
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 950 AM MON...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST, MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER. GOOD
COVERAGE OF RAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING,
STREAMING SW TO NE ALONG A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY. SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OFFSHORE THOUGH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATE. DEEPEST
MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH COAST. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS
DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2-5 FT, THOUGH DIAMOND SHOALS HAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A 6 FT SEA BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS, TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
6 FT SEA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER FRINGES.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...DAG/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/DAG/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
OFF THE OUTER BANKS AT PRESENT WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING
DOWN THE COAST INTO EASTERN SC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
OFF THE OUTER BANKS AT PRESENT WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING
DOWN THE COAST INTO EASTERN SC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
OFF THE OUTER BANKS AT PRESENT WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING
DOWN THE COAST INTO EASTERN SC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
OFF THE OUTER BANKS AT PRESENT WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING
DOWN THE COAST INTO EASTERN SC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030652
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY
SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN
THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER
80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030652
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY
SOUTH AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN
THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER
80S NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM MON...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO WILMINGTON TO CHARLESTON EXTEND
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ENTIRE AREA IS STEADILY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT
ZONES HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. LOWS STILL
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING
OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
RATHER THAN COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS
NO LESS THAN 5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY
FROM THE COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO WILMINGTON TO CHARLESTON EXTEND
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ENTIRE AREA IS STEADILY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT
ZONES HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. LOWS STILL
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING
OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
RATHER THAN COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS
NO LESS THAN 5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY
FROM THE COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO WILMINGTON TO CHARLESTON EXTEND
INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ENTIRE AREA IS STEADILY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT
ZONES HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. LOWS STILL
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING
OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
RATHER THAN COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS
NO LESS THAN 5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY
FROM THE COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030156
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING
ALONG A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...FROM THE ALBEMARLE TO THE SOUTH OF RALEIGH. WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET COUPLE HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NC. PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH...OFF OF CAPE FEAR CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM THIS EVENING
WHILE HEADING NORTH. ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC LOW...TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOWS STILL PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 70 INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING
OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
RATHER THAN COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS
NO LESS THAN 5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY
FROM THE COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CQD/DAG/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPER BACK TO 10
PERCENT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LIMITS DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WELL OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST
AND WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR POPS/WX OVERNIGHT THOUGH TRENDED
INCREASING POPS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DELAYING COASTAL
IMPACTS A FEW HOURS TO AROUND 09Z.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. RATHER THAN
COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS NO LESS THAN
5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE
COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CTC/CQD/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPER BACK TO 10
PERCENT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LIMITS DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WELL OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST
AND WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR POPS/WX OVERNIGHT THOUGH TRENDED
INCREASING POPS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DELAYING COASTAL
IMPACTS A FEW HOURS TO AROUND 09Z.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. RATHER THAN
COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS NO LESS THAN
5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE
COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CTC/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPER BACK TO 10
PERCENT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LIMITS DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WELL OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST
AND WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR POPS/WX OVERNIGHT THOUGH TRENDED
INCREASING POPS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DELAYING COASTAL
IMPACTS A FEW HOURS TO AROUND 09Z.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. RATHER THAN
COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS NO LESS THAN
5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE
COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CTC/CQD/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030013
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
813 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPER BACK TO 10
PERCENT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LIMITS DESTABILIZATION. WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WELL OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST
AND WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR POPS/WX OVERNIGHT THOUGH TRENDED
INCREASING POPS WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, DELAYING COASTAL
IMPACTS A FEW HOURS TO AROUND 09Z.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REBOUNDED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SW/SSW SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKING OVER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED, EXPECT ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. RATHER THAN
COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST, HAVE MINIMIZED VSBYS NO LESS THAN
5 MILES IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR INLAND COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE
COAST/SOUNDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND HAVE LIMITED VSBYS NO LESS THAN 5 MILES BETWEEN 08-12Z
TONIGHT. INTRODUCED VCSH FOR EWN/OAJ MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NC, THEN VCTS WITH BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR EWN/OAJ WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREA
TAFS. KEPT VCSH FOR ISO/PGV MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DECENT
GRADIENT WILL EXIST FROM THE COAST TO FAR INLAND TAF SITES, THOUGH
BETTER BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN VCTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME FOR ISO/PGV.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MONDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW, MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL
SHOWING SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 25 KT IS GENERALLY NEEDED TO YIELD 6 FT SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO
WED. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND
COULD SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW
FLOW AND SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO
THE WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CTC/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
SEA BREEZE. THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP SHOULD COVER THINGS THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND WITH 59 DEGREES AT KOAJ AND 61 AT KPGV. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE LOWS AROUND 70
WELL INLAND TO THE MUGGY MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS
OF MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE NOW GENERALLY SE/S ON ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH
STILL A BIT OF SWELL OVER NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL SHOWING
SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO WED.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND COULD
SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW FLOW AND
SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THE
WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
SEA BREEZE. THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP SHOULD COVER THINGS THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND WITH 59 DEGREES AT KOAJ AND 61 AT KPGV. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE LOWS AROUND 70
WELL INLAND TO THE MUGGY MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS
OF MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE NOW GENERALLY SE/S ON ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH
STILL A BIT OF SWELL OVER NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL SHOWING
SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO WED.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND COULD
SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW FLOW AND
SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THE
WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021657
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.
PER LATEST HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF...THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS
AND CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG
OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS
SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND
LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF
SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...WINDS STARTING TO PROCESS OF VEERING AROUND
TO THE SE/S AT THE BUOY SITES AND ON THE SOUNDS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
UNIFORMLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH
A BIT OF SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
BECOME MORE S/SW TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021657
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.
PER LATEST HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF...THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS
AND CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG
OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS
SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND
LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF
SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...WINDS STARTING TO PROCESS OF VEERING AROUND
TO THE SE/S AT THE BUOY SITES AND ON THE SOUNDS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
UNIFORMLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH
A BIT OF SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
BECOME MORE S/SW TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROP TO 1.29 INCHES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND ENSEMBLE WRF FROM NCAR SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. QUITE WARM INLAND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS ON ALL THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY DIAMOND BUOY GUSTING ABOVE 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1
TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE TODAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROP TO 1.29 INCHES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND ENSEMBLE WRF FROM NCAR SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. QUITE WARM INLAND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS ON ALL THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY DIAMOND BUOY GUSTING ABOVE 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1
TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE TODAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA COMPLETELY
DRY TODAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ISOLATED POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH NEW BERN TO JACKSONVILLE. WITH
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE BY DO NOT WANT TO GO DRY SO WILL GO WITH
ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND
OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS
AND SEAS CAPPED AT 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 021057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA COMPLETELY
DRY TODAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ISOLATED POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH NEW BERN TO JACKSONVILLE. WITH
BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE BY DO NOT WANT TO GO DRY SO WILL GO WITH
ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND
OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS
AND SEAS CAPPED AT 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020701
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA
COMPLETELY DRY TODAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ISOLATED POPS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH NEW BERN TO
JACKSONVILLE. WITH BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE BY DO NOT WANT TO GO DRY
SO WILL GO WITH ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN PREDAWN HOURS.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND
OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS
AND SEAS CAPPED AT 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020701
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
301 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA
COMPLETELY DRY TODAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ISOLATED POPS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH NEW BERN TO
JACKSONVILLE. WITH BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE BY DO NOT WANT TO GO DRY
SO WILL GO WITH ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN PREDAWN HOURS.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND
OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS
AND SEAS CAPPED AT 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 020503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...FORECAST ON TRACK. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/LEP/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/CQD
MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...FORECAST ON TRACK. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/LEP/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/CQD
MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 020503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...FORECAST ON TRACK. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/LEP/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/CQD
MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...FORECAST ON TRACK. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 1 AM SUN...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM SUN...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...HSA/LEP/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...HSA/CTC/CQD
MARINE...HSA/CTC/CQD/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 020221
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...ALL SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL KEEP SCHC FOR NOW.
MODIFIED DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT TO ILLUSTRATE THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA...BETWEEN RDU AND PGV. CLEARLY ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT DEW POINTS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKING ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT
AND 70S EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST
COAST...NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE
LONE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH
CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 020221
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1021 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...ALL SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL KEEP SCHC FOR NOW.
MODIFIED DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT TO ILLUSTRATE THE FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA...BETWEEN RDU AND PGV. CLEARLY ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT DEW POINTS AND
POSSIBLY THE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKING ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT
AND 70S EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST
COAST...NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE
LONE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH
CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SAT...NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES AS A FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 012241
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM SAT...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 70S
EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST...NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE LONE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
AROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012240
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM SAT...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 70S
EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST...NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE LONE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
AROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 012240
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM SAT...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 70S
EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST...NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE LONE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
AROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011932
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER TONIGHT.
HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR SO. QUITE A MOISTURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND AT 59 DEGREES AT
KISO...57 AT KDPL AND 61 AT KPGV. ALONG THE COAST...DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S DEEP
INLAND BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...WILL AGAIN FORECAST AREAS OF MVFR FOG FOR THE TAF SITES.
TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL LACK OF PRECIPITATION INLAND TODAY...THINK
CHANCES FOR IFR ARE LESS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
FOG THAT FORM SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH 18Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE S/SW CONTINUING AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS
TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD
MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011932
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER TONIGHT.
HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR SO. QUITE A MOISTURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND AT 59 DEGREES AT
KISO...57 AT KDPL AND 61 AT KPGV. ALONG THE COAST...DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S DEEP
INLAND BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM SATURDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS...WILL AGAIN FORECAST AREAS OF MVFR FOG FOR THE TAF SITES.
TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL LACK OF PRECIPITATION INLAND TODAY...THINK
CHANCES FOR IFR ARE LESS...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
FOG THAT FORM SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH 18Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE S/SW CONTINUING AT
15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS
TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD
MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD




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