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000
FXUS62 KMHX 182118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3
TO 5 FEET. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 182118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3
TO 5 FEET. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...DECK OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S MOST AREAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER NORTHERLY SURGE HAS ENDED
WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO
10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181754
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM THURSDAY...DECK OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S MOST AREAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLIER NORTHERLY SURGE HAS ENDED
WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO
10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY STREAM INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE STRENGTH OF
A STRONG ZONAL FLOW. TWEAKED CLOUDS BACK A BIT IN THE GRIDS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWING THE INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS AT MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT BOTH DUCK PIER AND
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 181434
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY STREAM INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE STRENGTH OF
A STRONG ZONAL FLOW. TWEAKED CLOUDS BACK A BIT IN THE GRIDS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWING THE INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EVERYWHERE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS AT MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT BOTH DUCK PIER AND
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 10
KNOTS BY THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 181209
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FROM W. GDNC
INDICATES ENOUGH TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. NRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...FCST ON TRACK WITH CAA SURGE THIS MORNING AND SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT NRN WATERS. NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 180928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180928
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA IS SPREADING ACROSS AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SFC TROF...BASICALLY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER
THAN WED. THICKER CI THAT SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT HAS THINNED PAST
FEW HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
IN DURING THE DAY AS SHRT WV MOVING OUT OF PLAINS TAPS MSTR FROM SUB
TROPICAL JET.

MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPR 40S NE TO 52-54 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS TO N OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE...AND ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROF
PASSAGE AS COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM NW. MIN TEMPS
FROM LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING
EASTERN NC. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND
SAT EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THU...15-20 KT NRLY CAA SURGE IS SPREADING DOWN THE
COAST IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY HANDLED
WELL BY MODELS AND PREVIOUS FCST. ALL GDNC SUPPORTS WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT AFTER
ANOTHER SFC TROF PASSAGE.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS.
CURRENT 2-3 FT HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WED...WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SFC
LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS...THOUGH
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ESP INLAND MAY NEED TO REDUCE
POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP SC POP SUN THOUGH THINK MOST
OF AREA WILL BE DRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING WITH ECMWF QUITE A BIT FASTER
THAN GFS. INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THINK AREA SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP.

MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC. ONE MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD
TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WED...MAINLY ALONG AND
E OF HWY 17. MODELS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
50-60KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
LIKELY...WITH TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING EASTERN NC. AT
THIS TIME THINK BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH N/NWLY WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.
SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE
SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE SAT AND SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SUPPRESSED OFF
THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS
10-20KT SAT AND SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5FT...THOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN
NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180613
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WEDWEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 180613
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THICKER CI NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM WEDWEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED FOR KPGV UNTIL 09Z WITH CALM WINDS AND SATURATED SFC AIR
MASS. SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED BY AROUND 09Z WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT NW WINDS AND LOWERING DEW PTS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
FOG. VFR EXPECTED REST OF TAF SITES WITH LESS SFC SATURATION. VFR
PREVAILING ALL SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING WITH JUST SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE
DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...UPDATED SEAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WW3 WITH
BUILDING SEAS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR MORNING. NW WINDS ARE
INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER CHES BAY AND DELMARVA COAST...THUS DO
EXPECT HIGHER WINDS BEHIND SECONDARY SFC TROF PASSAGE NEAR MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 180251
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM WEDWEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM











000
FXUS62 KMHX 180251
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM WEDWEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO
NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW
LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. DESPITE THIN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM WED... WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM












000
FXUS62 KMHX 172337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS GIVING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE. DESPITE THIN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM WED...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WATERS THIS EVENING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING FLOW TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
PICKING SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 172337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS GIVING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING THE LIGHT FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY. MAY SEE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE. DESPITE THIN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM WED...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WATERS THIS EVENING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING FLOW TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
PICKING SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT GENERALLY NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CGG/CTC/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 172306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THE COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE. EXPECT GENERALLY
NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5
FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM











000
FXUS62 KMHX 172306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THE COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 604 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE. EXPECT GENERALLY
NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5
FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM










000
FXUS62 KMHX 172106
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT DESPITE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE. EXPECT GENERALLY
NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5
FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 172106
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TOWARD MORNING WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE COOL AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY IN A FAST
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR HIGHS...SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...MEANWHILE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID
50S ON FRIDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THE
LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO BORDER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS 12Z/GFS HAS THE LOW A FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND
00Z/ECMWF HAS IT CLOSER. OVERALL...BOTH MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM AND IMPACTS REMAIN SMALL FOR THE AREA...AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. SUN WILL MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP MONDAY MORNING DRY AND STARTING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AS
THE LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH NORTHEAST...AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AND WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MID WEEK BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT DESPITE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY
POSSIBLE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE. EXPECT GENERALLY
NW/N WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 UP TO 5
FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
USED A BLEND OF BOTH WW3 AND NWPS AS NWPS WAS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW TO IMPACT THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX/GULF OF MEXICO
BORDER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. ITS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT AND PEAKING 15-20KTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES N/NE 10-15 ON MONDAY. WAVES WILL
INCREASE 3-4 FT SATURDAY AND PEAKING 5 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 171443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING AROUND 0.4 INCH.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH FORECAST VALUES IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM W THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH DRYING IN LOW
LVLS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. W TO NW WINDS
10 KT OR LESS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 AM AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH 2 TO
4 FEET ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY WNW/NW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 171443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING AROUND 0.4 INCH.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
UNDERWAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH FORECAST VALUES IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM W THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH DRYING IN LOW
LVLS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. W TO NW WINDS
10 KT OR LESS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AT 10 AM AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH 2 TO
4 FEET ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY WNW/NW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 171208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PESKY LOW
STRATUS OVER NRN OBX FINALLY MOVING OUT PER LATEST OBS AND 11-3.9
MICRON STLT IMAGERY...AND FCST ON TRACK FOR HIGH AND DRY DAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY. MID AND UPR LVL FLOW
WILL RETURN TO ZONAL IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...THUS NO STRONG TAP OF
ARCTIC AIR. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER NRN OBX EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REST OF AREA INTO AFTN THEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM W BY EVENING.

WENT A DEG OR 2 ABOVE WARMEST MOS GDNC MOST AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS AS
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAA. HIGHS FROM MID 50S OBX TO
AROUND 60 SRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM W THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH DRYING IN LOW
LVLS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. W TO NW WINDS
10 KT OR LESS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SEAS DOWN TO 6 FT AT
DIAMOND BUOY...ON TRACK FOR ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH W-NW WINDS
15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAA. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODELS AS CAA NW FLOW EXPECTED TO MIX
WELL OVER WARMER OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS ADJACENT TO GULF STREAM.

BUOY OBS INDICATES SEAS STILL 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED SCA UNTIL 10 AM GIVEN STRONGER NW
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 171208
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PESKY LOW
STRATUS OVER NRN OBX FINALLY MOVING OUT PER LATEST OBS AND 11-3.9
MICRON STLT IMAGERY...AND FCST ON TRACK FOR HIGH AND DRY DAY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY. MID AND UPR LVL FLOW
WILL RETURN TO ZONAL IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...THUS NO STRONG TAP OF
ARCTIC AIR. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER NRN OBX EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REST OF AREA INTO AFTN THEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM W BY EVENING.

WENT A DEG OR 2 ABOVE WARMEST MOS GDNC MOST AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS AS
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAA. HIGHS FROM MID 50S OBX TO
AROUND 60 SRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM NW. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM W THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH DRYING IN LOW
LVLS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. W TO NW WINDS
10 KT OR LESS FOR TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WED...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SEAS DOWN TO 6 FT AT
DIAMOND BUOY...ON TRACK FOR ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH W-NW WINDS
15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAA. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODELS AS CAA NW FLOW EXPECTED TO MIX
WELL OVER WARMER OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS ADJACENT TO GULF STREAM.

BUOY OBS INDICATES SEAS STILL 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED SCA UNTIL 10 AM GIVEN STRONGER NW
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170932
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY. MID AND UPR LVL FLOW
WILL RETURN TO ZONAL IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...THUS NO STRONG TAP OF
ARCTIC AIR. STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER NRN OBX EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL REST OF AREA INTO AFTN THEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM W BY EVENING.

WENT A DEG OR 2 ABOVE WARMEST MOS GDNC MOST AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS AS
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAA. HIGHS FROM MID 50S OBX TO
AROUND 60 SRN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM NW WHILE
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM W ON ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS
FOM LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH W-NW WINDS
15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAA. LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH
WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODELS AS CAA NW FLOW EXPECTED TO MIX
WELL OVER WARMER OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS ADJACENT TO GULF STREAM.

BUOY OBS INDICATES SEAS STILL 5-7 FT OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...AND EXTENDED SCA UNTIL 10 AM GIVEN STRONGER NW
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT BY LATE
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG/CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG/CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG/CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC
FROM THE W/NW THU AND FRI WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S FOR THU
AND FRI. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT.

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF
REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING EXACT
TIMING AND INTENSITY BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER
SYSTEM WITH LESS IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT...TAPERING OFF LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
SUN MAINLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...AS LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WPC AND ECMWF
SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY AND STARTING POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS EXPECTED TUE WITH WEAK LOW LIKELY
OFF THE COAST...AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED PUSHING
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC WED.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW AS STACKED LOW REMAINS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU
INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTINUED NWLY FLOW 10-20KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. CONTINUED TO TREND WITH WAVEWATCH LATE THU THROUGH
FRI...THINKING THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH FRI AND SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND STRENGTHEN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS PEAKING AT
15-20KT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY SAT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING E/NE LATE SAT. FLOW BECOMES N/NW 15-20KT SUN. AT THIS
TIME WILL CAP SEAS 4-6FT...WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY NORTH OF
OCRACOKE. AT THIS TIME THINK SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG/CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170637
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...JBM/CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 170637
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM WED...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND MORE
CLOUDINESS ALONG COAST NEXT FEW HOURS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW FLOW OF
DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE SLACK GRADIENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS
AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE
OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY FOR KPGV
AND KISO UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WHILE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED
TO KEEP KOAJ AND KEWN VFR OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM NW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SEAS TO 7-8 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS NEXT FEW HOURS...REST OF FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGE
TO SCA.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...JBM/CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170228
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW
FLOW OF DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
SLACK GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE
BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 00Z BUT SLACK GRADIENT AND MOIST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG AND CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT. LATE
TONIGHT WINDS MAY DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TAF LATE BUT IT IS NOTED THAT BUFKIT IS INDICATING DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT KPGV/KISO WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM LATE.
WEDNESDAY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 170228
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THESE SHOWERS OFFSHORE BY 04Z. LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST OFF OF THE COAST BY 05Z FOLLOWED BY A NW
FLOW OF DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. LIKE WE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
SLACK GRADIENT EARLIER THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT THIS FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY 06Z AS AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS EVIDENCED BY 3 MB 3HRLY PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INLAND SHOULD DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE
BUT WITH DRY ADVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 00Z BUT SLACK GRADIENT AND MOIST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG AND CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT. LATE
TONIGHT WINDS MAY DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TAF LATE BUT IT IS NOTED THAT BUFKIT IS INDICATING DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT KPGV/KISO WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM LATE.
WEDNESDAY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. S/SW WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH 6 FT
BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 41025 AND 7 FT @ FRYING PAN WHERE PROXIMITY
TO WARMER IS ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING/STRONGER WINDS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH BOTH THE LOCAL NWPS AND WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS WHICH
INDICATE A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE
MARINE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170000
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AROUND 00Z. WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH 03Z PER HRRR AND
WRF NMM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS THE GRADIENT IS BECOMING SLACK INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LEADING TO THE DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT EARLIER RECEIVED RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE
GRADIENT OVER LAND BRIEFLY TIGHTENS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06Z AND THE ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL DISSIPATE ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 00Z BUT SLACK GRADIENT AND MOIST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG AND CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT. LATE
TONIGHT WINDS MAY DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TAF LATE BUT IT IS NOTED THAT BUFKIT IS INDICATING DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT KPGV/KISO WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM LATE.
WEDNESDAY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE
WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME








000
FXUS62 KMHX 170000
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RACE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE AROUND 00Z. WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH 03Z PER HRRR AND
WRF NMM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS THE GRADIENT IS BECOMING SLACK INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LEADING TO THE DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT EARLIER RECEIVED RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE
GRADIENT OVER LAND BRIEFLY TIGHTENS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06Z AND THE ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL DISSIPATE ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DUE TO PACIFIC NATURE OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 00Z BUT SLACK GRADIENT AND MOIST LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG AND CLEAR THE CEILINGS OUT. LATE
TONIGHT WINDS MAY DECOUPLE AGAIN LATE BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION SO WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TAF LATE BUT IT IS NOTED THAT BUFKIT IS INDICATING DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE AT KPGV/KISO WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM LATE.
WEDNESDAY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WINDS
HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE
WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/JME







000
FXUS62 KMHX 162155
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE
CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESPITE NO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. LATEST 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW
AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 162155
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE
CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESPITE NO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. LATEST 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW
AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 126 PM TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL BE GIVING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GRADIENT LOOSENING THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE WATERS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...POSSIBLY REACHING BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT DEEPENS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER SEAS COULD REACH 6 FEET OR HIGHER LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 162016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE
CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESPITE NO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. LATEST 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW
AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 162016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE
CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESPITE NO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. LATEST 3KM
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
HOLDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...UP TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 103 PM TUE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FROM
MIDWEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. EITHER WAY...EXPECT WEEKEND TO BE WET AND
BREEZY WITH LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ECMWF DEEPENS THE SURFACE
LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFSENS LIFTS THE LOW OUT
OF THE AREA MUCH FASTER. AM EXPECTING SOME COASTAL PROBLEMS AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT WITH EXTENDED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PTYPE NOT TO BE A PROBLEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND FULL
LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO S/SW ON ALL WATERS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LIKEWISE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET...BUT 5 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH...A FEW
AREAS OF 6 FOOT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL 12Z
ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST WAVE MODELING RUNS.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON OFFSHORE WNW/NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM TUE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GIVE AREA TAFS SUB VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161802
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH
OUR WESTERN CWA AND LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE
PRECIPITATION QUITE WELL. BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY 19Z TO ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS AS THE FILTERED SUNSHINE OF THE MORNING WILL BE REPLACED
BY LOWER OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND TO NOT EXPECT THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 16
KNOTS AT CAPE LOOKOUT AND 18 KNOTS AT THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET. EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADJUSTED FCST SEAS
WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT HEIGHTS FOR OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161802
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH
OUR WESTERN CWA AND LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE
PRECIPITATION QUITE WELL. BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY 19Z TO ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS AS THE FILTERED SUNSHINE OF THE MORNING WILL BE REPLACED
BY LOWER OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED AND TO NOT EXPECT THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM TUESDAY...LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE CWA. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY 19Z
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 16
KNOTS AT CAPE LOOKOUT AND 18 KNOTS AT THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET. EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ADJUSTED FCST SEAS
WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT HEIGHTS FOR OUTER
PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
3KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME AND WORKING ACROSS THE CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL CHANCE TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE
ELEVATED AS THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE BUT QPF TOTALS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AFFECTING TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY WITH MVFR VSBYS BUT LOCAL LIFR AT
KOAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 13Z-14Z AND PREVAILING REST OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO AREA
WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST
NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 161449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
3KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME AND WORKING ACROSS THE CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL CHANCE TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE
ELEVATED AS THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE BUT QPF TOTALS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AFFECTING TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY WITH MVFR VSBYS BUT LOCAL LIFR AT
KOAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 13Z-14Z AND PREVAILING REST OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO AREA
WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST
NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 161143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP TEMPS WARM QUICKLY...THEN
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND. MODELS ALL AGREE ON DECENT PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN BUT LIKELY
OVERDONE IN MID LVL W-SW FLOW PATTERN COMING ACROSS MTNS...AND KEPT
POPS CAPPED AROUND 50%. BEST COVERAGE LIKELY FOR INLAND OF HWY 17
THIS AFTN...SHIFTING NEAR COAST THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND DID NOT ADD MENTION OF TSTMS.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY 62-67 ACROSS AREA...WARMEST ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY
17 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT KEEPING COASTAL PLAINS A
FEW DEGS COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AFFECTING TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY WITH MVFR VSBYS BUT LOCAL LIFR AT
KOAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 13Z-14Z AND PREVAILING REST OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
TONIGHT AND HAVE POSTED SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W AND NW AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT
HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 161143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP TEMPS WARM QUICKLY...THEN
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND. MODELS ALL AGREE ON DECENT PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN BUT LIKELY
OVERDONE IN MID LVL W-SW FLOW PATTERN COMING ACROSS MTNS...AND KEPT
POPS CAPPED AROUND 50%. BEST COVERAGE LIKELY FOR INLAND OF HWY 17
THIS AFTN...SHIFTING NEAR COAST THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND DID NOT ADD MENTION OF TSTMS.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY 62-67 ACROSS AREA...WARMEST ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY
17 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT KEEPING COASTAL PLAINS A
FEW DEGS COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AFFECTING TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY WITH MVFR VSBYS BUT LOCAL LIFR AT
KOAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR 13Z-14Z AND PREVAILING REST OF TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
TONIGHT AND HAVE POSTED SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W AND NW AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT
HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 160924
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP TEMPS WARM QUICKLY...THEN
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND. MODELS ALL AGREE ON DECENT PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN BUT LIKELY
OVERDONE IN MID LVL W-SW FLOW PATTERN COMING ACROSS MTNS...AND KEPT
POPS CAPPED AROUND 50%. BEST COVERAGE LIKELY FOR INLAND OF HWY 17
THIS AFTN...SHIFTING NEAR COAST THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND DID NOT ADD MENTION OF TSTMS.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY 62-67 ACROSS AREA...WARMEST ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY
17 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT KEEPING COASTAL PLAINS A
FEW DEGS COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
TONIGHT AND HAVE POSTED SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W AND NW AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT
HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 160924
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
INSOLATION DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP TEMPS WARM QUICKLY...THEN
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND. MODELS ALL AGREE ON DECENT PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN BUT LIKELY
OVERDONE IN MID LVL W-SW FLOW PATTERN COMING ACROSS MTNS...AND KEPT
POPS CAPPED AROUND 50%. BEST COVERAGE LIKELY FOR INLAND OF HWY 17
THIS AFTN...SHIFTING NEAR COAST THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED AND DID NOT ADD MENTION OF TSTMS.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY 62-67 ACROSS AREA...WARMEST ALONG AND JUST E OF HWY
17 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT KEEPING COASTAL PLAINS A
FEW DEGS COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE OVER ERN HALF
OF AREA EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 50%. PCPN WILL PUSH
OFF COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
TONIGHT AND HAVE POSTED SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO W AND NW AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KTS LATE TONIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADJUSTED FCST SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS...INDICATING PERIOD OF 6 FT
HEIGHTS FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 160829
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED FCST FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW INLAND AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 33-36 DEGS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/RF/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME/JAC
LONG TERM...JAC/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 160829
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED FCST FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW INLAND AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 33-36 DEGS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS 55-60DEG WED WITH LOW LEVEL
W/NW FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S FOR THU AND FRI WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS ENC.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS FAVORED ECMWF...NOW BEGINNING TO TREND SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...DEPICTING A WEAKER AND SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC
MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX THU NIGHT AND FRI... THEN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF REGION SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY
INTENSIFYING OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW...THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES AND ROUGH
SURF. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET
AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS...WITH MOISTURE TAPERING OFF LATE SUN.
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE SAT THOUGH VERY
DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF LOW...WITH BEST CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE WEEKEND SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN/MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE W/NW WED THROUGH FRI...RESULTING IN W/NWLY FLOW 10-20KT AND
SEAS 2-4FT. TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH LATE WED THROUGH FRI...THINKING
THAT LOCAL NWPS IS STILL SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN NC WATERS.
PREVIOUS FAVORED MODEL ECMWF...NOW THE 00Z RUN COMING IN MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SLOWER SFC
LOW MOVING ALONG THE NC COAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/RF/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME/JAC
LONG TERM...JAC/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 160607
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED FCST FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW INLAND AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 33-36 DEGS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THU AND FRI...THICKNESSES LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO...50S FOR HIGHS
AND 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT E NC THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF SOLN WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE ECMWF SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO GALE
FORCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE GFS SOLN SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS ASSOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST MOVING
SFC LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BOTH CASES SUGGEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND WILL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ERN NC ON SAT.
WILL CONT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
DIFFERENT SOLNS OF THE MODELS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MOSTLY LWR TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE VFR RANGE MOST LIKELY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN WED THROUGH
FRI. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDS MAY
PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH THE EXITING STORM
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INC WINDS AGAIN
TO 15 KT...REMAINING BELOW SCA.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND
IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO GALE FORCE...HEAVY
RAINS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/RF/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JBM/JAC
MARINE...JAC/JME/LEP/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 160607
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED FCST FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW INLAND AREAS WHERE
TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 33-36 DEGS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THU AND FRI...THICKNESSES LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO...50S FOR HIGHS
AND 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT E NC THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF SOLN WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE ECMWF SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO GALE
FORCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE GFS SOLN SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS ASSOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST MOVING
SFC LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BOTH CASES SUGGEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND WILL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ERN NC ON SAT.
WILL CONT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
DIFFERENT SOLNS OF THE MODELS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MOSTLY LWR TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
ALL TAF SITES 08Z-13Z WITH CLOSE TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRATUS LIKELY WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR TOP OF
SFC BASED IN VERSION. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 13Z WITH HEATING WITH VFR PREVAILING REST OF TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCT SHRA ACTIVITY LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TODAY AND SHIFT TO W BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE VFR RANGE MOST LIKELY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN WED THROUGH
FRI. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDS MAY
PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH THE EXITING STORM
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INC WINDS AGAIN
TO 15 KT...REMAINING BELOW SCA.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND
IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO GALE FORCE...HEAVY
RAINS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/RF/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JBM/JAC
MARINE...JAC/JME/LEP/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 160249
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THU AND FRI...THICKNESSES LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO...50S FOR HIGHS
AND 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT E NC THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF SOLN WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE ECMWF SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO GALE
FORCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE GFS SOLN SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS ASSOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST MOVING
SFC LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BOTH CASES SUGGEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND WILL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ERN NC ON SAT.
WILL CONT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
DIFFERENT SOLNS OF THE MODELS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MOSTLY LWR TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES ALONG THE CST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONT OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CI CROSSING CURRENTLY BUT
SHLD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DEWPTS CONT TO
RISE EXPECT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE ESPCLY DEEP INLAND
PER HIGH RES MDLS. HAVE PD OF IFR DEEP INLAND TO MVFR CLOSER TO CST
LATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IN VFR
RANGE. ANY FOG/ST THAT DEVELOPS SHLD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE
MORN AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AND CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SUB VFR IN THESE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE VFR RANGE MOST LIKELY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN WED THROUGH
FRI. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDS MAY
PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH THE EXITING STORM
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INC WINDS AGAIN
TO 15 KT...REMAINING BELOW SCA.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND
IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO GALE FORCE...HEAVY
RAINS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 160249
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL US.
ALREADY OBSERVING SOME FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ANTICIPATE THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40
ALONG THE BEACHES.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S INLAND LOW 40S COAST
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THU AND FRI...THICKNESSES LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO...50S FOR HIGHS
AND 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT E NC THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF SOLN WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE ECMWF SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO GALE
FORCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE GFS SOLN SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS ASSOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST MOVING
SFC LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BOTH CASES SUGGEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND WILL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ERN NC ON SAT.
WILL CONT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
DIFFERENT SOLNS OF THE MODELS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MOSTLY LWR TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES ALONG THE CST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONT OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CI CROSSING CURRENTLY BUT
SHLD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DEWPTS CONT TO
RISE EXPECT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE ESPCLY DEEP INLAND
PER HIGH RES MDLS. HAVE PD OF IFR DEEP INLAND TO MVFR CLOSER TO CST
LATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IN VFR
RANGE. ANY FOG/ST THAT DEVELOPS SHLD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE
MORN AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AND CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SUB VFR IN THESE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE VFR RANGE MOST LIKELY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN WED THROUGH
FRI. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDS MAY
PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH THE EXITING STORM
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT UNDER LIGHT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INC WINDS AGAIN
TO 15 KT...REMAINING BELOW SCA.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND
IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO GALE FORCE...HEAVY
RAINS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 152337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...LOWERED INIT TEMPS ALL AREAS AND LOWERED
OVERNIGHT MINS OBX DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NO CHANGES
OTHERWISE AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE CST.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER AS
IT DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RAPIDLY FALLING
EVENING TEMPERATURES. LATER TONIGHT THIS COOLING COULD LEAD TO
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST
MOS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND LOW 40S
COAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUES TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IT WILL
PROPEL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD FORCING (DPVA) WHILE NC
COMES INTO THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET SO THERE
WILL BE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRESENT. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE PRODUCING AMOUNTS <0.10". THE 3Z/9Z SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS
INDICATE MEAN QPF VALUES /= 0.01" BUT < 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THUS THE
CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF DILEMMA WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS IN
THE 30-50% RANGE AND CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SPC HAS
OUR AREA IN A THREAT FOR GENERAL THUNDER BUT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NIL AND CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY AROUND
100 J/KG THUS FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS COULD TAKE TO MID MORNING TO DISSIPATE BUT STILL
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF AT LEAST FILTERED SUNSHINE IN
COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL PRODUCE MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCT SHOWERS WILL CONT INTO TUE EVE ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WINDS BECOME W-NW. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
SUBSIDENT FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FOR THU AND FRI...THICKNESSES LOWER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO...50S FOR HIGHS
AND 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY AFFECT E NC THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF SOLN WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE ECMWF SUGGEST PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS. THIS WOULD BRING A DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO GALE
FORCE...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE GFS SOLN SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH WDSPRD SHOWERS ASSOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST MOVING
SFC LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BOTH CASES SUGGEST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND WILL CONT LIKELY POPS FOR ERN NC ON SAT.
WILL CONT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
DIFFERENT SOLNS OF THE MODELS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK WITH HIGHS UPR 40S TO LWR 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND LOWS MOSTLY LWR TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRES ALONG THE CST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONT OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CI CROSSING CURRENTLY BUT
SHLD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DEWPTS CONT TO
RISE EXPECT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE ESPCLY DEEP INLAND
PER HIGH RES MDLS. HAVE PD OF IFR DEEP INLAND TO MVFR CLOSER TO CST
LATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IN VFR
RANGE. ANY FOG/ST THAT DEVELOPS SHLD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE
MORN AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AND CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SUB VFR IN THESE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AVIATION WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
IN THE VFR RANGE MOST LIKELY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN WED THROUGH
FRI. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDS MAY
PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH SCT SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH THE EXITING STORM
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE.

PREV DISC... LIGHT WINDS /10 KT OR LESS/ WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE. ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE WATERS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 1
TO 3 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MON...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INC WINDS AGAIN
TO 15 KT...REMAINING BELOW SCA.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO
4 FT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND
IF IT MATERIALIZES WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO GALE FORCE...HEAVY
RAINS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/JAC/JME











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