Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 011400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG MIXING OUT AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCT 2K FT STRATO CU DECK BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT
DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW
ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS
THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 011400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LOW STRATUS AND FOG MIXING OUT AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCT 2K FT STRATO CU DECK BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT
DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW
ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS
THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 011115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM WED...LOW FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
9AM EDT. DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM WED...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS AREA
TAFS THIS MORNING BUT WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE/E WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
IMPACT ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 3-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT AS IT NEARS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS. SEAS WILL RANGE
3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE
TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN
LATEST WAVEWATCH...BUT WILL STICK WITH SWAN AS IT GENERALLY
OUTPERFORMS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN NE FLOW SITUATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 010728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
THE FRONT JUST A BIT...DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION INTO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE THIS
ADJUSTMENT TO SLIGHTLY SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM AND THINK FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED AND
JUST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND
WITH 50S OVER MOST OTHER AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
CAUSING IT TO DIVE FURTHER SOUTH AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. COOL DRY AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING NW BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 010554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI WITH
TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/STRATUS. COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING TO BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER THU.
WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS LATE FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET...POSS STILL
SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WATERS. S/SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS. FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5
FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST LATE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 010554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
154 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FOG FOR MORNING COMMUTE IN HWO AND MAY
ISSUE AN SPS LATER THIS MORNING IF CONDITIONS PERSIST/WORSEN. ANY
FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS EASTERN NC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY YIELDING WNW
FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 81-83 F RANGE INLAND TO 73-76 F
ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM WED...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR FOR PERSISTENCE AND MAY
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH INLAND SITES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND COASTAL SITES IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...FOG HAS DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES ACROSS INLAND
TAF SITES TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH
12-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS DECOUPLED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS FELL
QUICKLY TO NEAR DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3
DEGREES ACROSS AREA TAF SITES AS OF 0530Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL
MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NE/E WINDS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED
CLOUDS 2500-5000 FEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION. ANOTHER ROUND OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI WITH
TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/STRATUS. COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING TO BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT WASHOUT ONCE OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS...WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON WINDS THOUGH SEAS COULD
BUILD 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AND THE NORTHERN WATERS
DUE TO LONGER N/NNE FETCH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER THU.
WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS LATE FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET...POSS STILL
SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WATERS. S/SW WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS. FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5
FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST LATE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 010158
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 302302
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 302302
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID
60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED BY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS
2-4 FT. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES
AWAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO
AS HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/TL/RF
MARINE...HSA/TL/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PLEASANT LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER ACROSS E NC.
TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MOST AREAS. SCT
DIURNAL STRATO CU CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF
LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED
BY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES AWAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO AS
HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF










000
FXUS62 KMHX 301900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PLEASANT LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER ACROSS E NC.
TEMPS TOPPING OUT INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MOST AREAS. SCT
DIURNAL STRATO CU CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE WINDS COURTESY OF
LOW PRES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
CROSSOVER TEMPS MET OR EXCEEDED WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE IN GRIDS TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER AROUND 06Z TO 07Z. LOW TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 INLAND...TO THE MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANTLY MILD DAY ON TAP. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR SO HIGHER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EDGE UPWARDS A TAD.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT MID 70S OBX. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AS LOW PRES CONTINUES PULLING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SW ATLANTIC BASIN AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MOST OF
FRI. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS INLAND. UPR TRF AND
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRI AND ADDED SMALL POP DEEP
INLAND LATE. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT
ASSOC WITH THE FRONT...FOR NOW CONT WITH GOOD CHC POPS. INSTAB
LOOKS WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. GFS/ECMWF FAIRLY
CLOSE IN SHOWING LINGERING PRECIP IMD CST ENDING EARLY SAT WITH
DRY WX AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH 70S FOR HIGHS SAT
THRU MON...COULD SEE SOME UPR 40S COOLER INLAND SPOTS SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPR SHORT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS TUE HOWEVER
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO HAVE SILENT 20 POP NRN TIER TUE WITH
70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST
NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND BE REPLACED
BY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRI WITH TYPICAL THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS FRI NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS TSRA POSS LEADING
TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE S
IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH VFR EXPECTED AS MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS INDICATING N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS DIAMOND SHOALS...AND SEAS 2-3FT.
WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AS IT PUSHES AWAY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO AS
HIGH AS 5 FT OUTER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO SOME SWELL
ENERGY BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SOME SWELL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT NRN TIER AND 2 TO 4 FT SRN TIER WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS DIMINISH THU NIGHT THEN BECOME S NEAR 15 KTS
LATE FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS STILL SOME LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS.
S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS FRI NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME 6 FT SEAS OUTER WTRS. FRONT WILL CROSS
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST LATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF











000
FXUS62 KMHX 301400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST. HAVE DECREASED
CLOUDS EARLIER AS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL SCT STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.

AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND
SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST. HAVE DECREASED
CLOUDS EARLIER AS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL SCT STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.

AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND
SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 301040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND
SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND
SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 300722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RA
MAINLY E OF HWY 17...BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT OBS TO THE WEST EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NLY FLOW.
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE TAF SITES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/SREF
PROBS/NARRE AND OBS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT.
LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD










000
FXUS62 KMHX 300722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC
THIS MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RA
MAINLY E OF HWY 17...BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT OBS TO THE WEST EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NLY FLOW.
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE TAF SITES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/SREF
PROBS/NARRE AND OBS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-3FT.
LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD











000
FXUS62 KMHX 300452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR WAS TO UPDATE POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...DECREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
SHIFTING MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE OUTER
BANKS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND OFF THE COAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE TAF SITES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/SREF
PROBS/NARRE AND OBS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. LATEST OBS
SHOW NLY WINDS 5-15KKT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...JBM/SK/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 300452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR WAS TO UPDATE POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...DECREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
SHIFTING MAINLY E OF HWY 17...WITH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE OUTER
BANKS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AND OFF THE COAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN E OF THE TAF SITES. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE OFF THE COAST...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/SREF
PROBS/NARRE AND OBS TO THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
BY MID MORNING ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY
WINDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. LATEST OBS
SHOW NLY WINDS 5-15KKT AND SEAS 2-3FT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE
FL/GA COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD/JBM
MARINE...JBM/SK/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP AND PRECIP
TRENDS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
OBSERVED. AS THE SHORTWAVES EXITS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE
WILL ERODE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY
SUNRISE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOVED
OFFSHORE. LOWS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE NOTED SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING
AROUND 2-3FT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEAS TO COME UP TO
4FT. THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IF SEAS DO NO BUILD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ARE NORTH 5-10KTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/SK
MARINE...CTC/HSA/SK/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP AND PRECIP
TRENDS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
OBSERVED. AS THE SHORTWAVES EXITS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE
WILL ERODE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY
SUNRISE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOVED
OFFSHORE. LOWS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND TO
UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM MON...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TAPERING
OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE NOTED SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING
AROUND 2-3FT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEAS TO COME UP TO
4FT. THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IF SEAS DO NO BUILD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ARE NORTH 5-10KTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA/SK
MARINE...CTC/HSA/SK/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHLTY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDTIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDTIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/SK/JBM
MARINE...HSA/SK/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHLTY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDTIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDTIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/SK/JBM
MARINE...HSA/SK/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 292025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHLTY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDTIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDTIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JBM
MARINE...SK/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 292025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE DURING PERIOD IS GFS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH UPR TROF/SFC FRONT FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT...AND USED A COMPROMISE MODEL BLEND.

MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ERN NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS AN UPR LOW SWINGS ACROSS N OF AREA...RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAIR WX CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHLTY ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THU AND THU NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA FRI
NIGHT WITH ASSCTD SFC FRONT...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SOME MODEL
INDICATION OF N/S SPLIT IN PCPN PATTERN SO HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

ECMWF INDICATES SRN LOBE SHRT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS AREA SAT NIGHT WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE ATMOS TOO DRY FOR PCPN THREAT...THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR
SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

HIGH AND DRY CONDTIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS AREA FROM W-SW. FALL-LIKE TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS
AROUND 50 PSBL FOR INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO AN
INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. IMPROVING CONDTIONS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WATERS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED TO N. GENERALLY
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD WITH CAA RESULTING IN 15-20 KT
WINDS WED-THU AS MODELS MAY BE UNDERDONE WITH MIXING OVER WARMER
WATERS.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15-20
KT WITH SHIFT TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAAGE SAT.

LEANED TO NWPS FOR WAVES EARLY IN PERIOD WITH WIND FCST STRONGER
THAN GFS. PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS WED-THU...THEN SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
SEAS BUILDING AGAIN WITH STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT
MAINLY 3-5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK/JBM
MARINE...SK/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 291853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO
AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BETWEEN STRONG
HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET
WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE
MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 291853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING QUITE A
BIT OF RETURNS EVERYWHERE BUT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HOWEVER...THE
SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 8-10K FT
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE
ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HOWEVER NEAR ALL MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE HERE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BEST VORT ADVECTION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE TUES WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER THE MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF WITH SCT AFTERNOON CU AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. HIGHS
EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHOWERS AS CLOUD BASES
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ABOVE 8K FT WHERE SHOWERS ARE OCCURING
WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL TUES ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO
AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING EAST OFF THE FL/GA COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BETWEEN STRONG
HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR
BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET
WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE
MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 291435
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1035 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING
QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT REMAINING AREAS TO BURN OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY LAYER BELOW 8-10KT PER
KMHX 12Z SOUNDING AND LAPS SOUNDINGS. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BUT MANY OBS SITES BELOW THE
RETURNS HAVE TAKEN A WHILE TO BEGIN REPORTING PRECIP VALIDATING
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE NOON AND THEN
INCREASE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. MANY MODELS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
QPF EAST OF A LINE FROM APPROX COLUMBIA TO NEWPORT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA
AS A WHOLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S. AREAS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...FOG HAS BEEN QUICKLY BURNING OFF LATE THIS
MORNING BUT STILL HAVE LIFR CIGS AT PGV AND ISO. THESE ARE THE
ONLY SITES REPORTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-12KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALLOWING
N/NE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/CQD
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 291435
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1035 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING
QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT REMAINING AREAS TO BURN OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY LAYER BELOW 8-10KT PER
KMHX 12Z SOUNDING AND LAPS SOUNDINGS. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BUT MANY OBS SITES BELOW THE
RETURNS HAVE TAKEN A WHILE TO BEGIN REPORTING PRECIP VALIDATING
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE NOON AND THEN
INCREASE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. MANY MODELS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
QPF EAST OF A LINE FROM APPROX COLUMBIA TO NEWPORT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA
AS A WHOLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S. AREAS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...FOG HAS BEEN QUICKLY BURNING OFF LATE THIS
MORNING BUT STILL HAVE LIFR CIGS AT PGV AND ISO. THESE ARE THE
ONLY SITES REPORTING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-12KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALLOWING
N/NE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/CQD
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 291045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY.
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND NE SC...THOUGH
BASED ON OBS VERY LITTLE CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES...HOWEVER
PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY
LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE MOST AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S. AREAS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AT
SITES THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN
12-14Z THIS MORNING RETURNING TO PRED VFR. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N/NE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 291045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY.
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND NE SC...THOUGH
BASED ON OBS VERY LITTLE CURRENTLY REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES...HOWEVER
PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY
LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE MOST AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S. AREAS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AT
SITES THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BETWEEN
12-14Z THIS MORNING RETURNING TO PRED VFR. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW NW/N WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N/NE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
IMPROVES...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS
SHOW IFR AT PGV/EWN AND VFR FOR ISO/OAJ. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK
THAT WIDESPREAD THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL.
MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO/PGV/EWN
BUT LIMIT TO MVFR AT OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-10KT WITH GUSTS TO
15KT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 290706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST...AND SFC
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER GRADUALLY.
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
IMPROVES...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND CLOUDY SKIES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES
ALONG THE SE COAST AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOW SURFACE LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR
TUESDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
PLEASANT...SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING LEADING TO RATHER WARM
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
RATHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
WITH COOLER...DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS
SHOW IFR AT PGV/EWN AND VFR FOR ISO/OAJ. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK
THAT WIDESPREAD THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL.
MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO/PGV/EWN
BUT LIMIT TO MVFR AT OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR KPGV AND KEWN...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-10KT WITH GUSTS TO
15KT ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4FT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT
DRAPED ALONG THE SE COAST. EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NE AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. N/NE WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SURFACE
GRADIENT LEADS TO N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH SOME 5-FOOTERS
OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND TO OUR WEST...LEADING TO SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 290503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR UPDATE. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT A FEW
SITES WITH WINDS DECOUPLED...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MAX POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO
THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS
SHOW IFR AT PGV/EWN AND VFR FOR ISO/OAJ. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK
THAT WIDESPREAD THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL.
MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO/PGV/EWN
BUT LIMIT TO MVFR AT OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON... NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE
AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER WITH SEAS
2-4 FT IN PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CQD/CGG
MARINE...SK/DAG/CQD/CGG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR UPDATE. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE BEACHES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT A FEW
SITES WITH WINDS DECOUPLED...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MAX POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO
THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL
BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...CHALLENGING FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS
SHOW IFR AT PGV/EWN AND VFR FOR ISO/OAJ. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK
THAT WIDESPREAD THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL.
MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO/PGV/EWN
BUT LIMIT TO MVFR AT OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON... NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE
AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER WITH SEAS
2-4 FT IN PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CQD/CGG
MARINE...SK/DAG/CQD/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 290213
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINTS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.
PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED AT EWN/PGV AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY UNFOLD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS HAVE DECOUPLED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING
UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAINS TAF SITES PGV/ISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY... NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER
WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF
THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK/DAG
MARINE...CGG/SK/DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 290213
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINTS. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.
PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED AT EWN/PGV AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY UNFOLD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS HAVE DECOUPLED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING
UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAINS TAF SITES PGV/ISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY... NO CHANGES NEEDED DURING THIS UPDATE. LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER
WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF
THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK/DAG
MARINE...CGG/SK/DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
806 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED FASTER THAN FORECAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 60S...QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED AS WELL. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING
UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAINS TAF SITES PGV/ISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 8 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS
AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK/DAG
MARINE...CGG/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
806 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
AS TEMPS HAVE COOLED FASTER THAN FORECAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 60S...QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED AS WELL. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
OPEN INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH THICKENING
UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. ALL MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAINS TAF SITES PGV/ISO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
5-15 KT ACROSS THE WATER WITH SEAS 3-4 FT IN A MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL
AROUND 8 SECONDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS
AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK/DAG
MARINE...CGG/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 281848
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY
WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH
BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH
THICKENING UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT
WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 281848
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY
WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FUNNELED TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER TROUGH
BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED WITH
THICKENING UPPER CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 INLAND AND THE UPPER 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE
305-310K PRES SURFACE...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...THROUGH 00Z TUE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 117 PM SUN...MODELS HAVE DIFFERED FROM WHAT THEY WERE GOING
WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS BRINGING THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ALONG THE COAST...AND KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EVENTUALLY MERGING IT
WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE WATERS WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SOME TIME. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES...THE GOOD NEWS
IS THESE DIFFERENCES DON`T TRANSLATE INTO DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
POPS/QPF. FORECAST MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR THE PERIOD.

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING A QUICK SHOT WITH NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF LIFT OR
MOISTURE. DRIER AND COOLER AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE HOWEVER RADIATIONAL COOLING
MAY BE HAMPERED BY THE THICKENING CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE VERY
BULLISH WITH LIFR FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM LAST NIGHT AND THINK PERSISTENCE IS A BETTER
FORECAST...SO HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ISO AND PGV BUT LIMIT TO
MVFR VSBYS AT EWN AND OAJ. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY
AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AT AREA TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE MONDAY INTO
LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL BRING
SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND...SO MAY SEE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS IT
WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 7 FEET. RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DECREASE TO 10
KNOTS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities