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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE SC COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NW. LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WSW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES. TRENDED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS
NSSL WRF/HRRR. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SC ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE SHEAR SO
EXPECT ISO TSTM THREAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...AS SFC
LOW OVER TX/LA MOVES NE INTO TN/KY...WHILE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
TOUGH FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT THINK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVERZEALOUS
DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS
TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE/SREF. THINK CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE SE STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-5FT IN ESE SWELL. VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS
MORNING...THEN NE/SE THROUGH THE DAY 5-10KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. E/NE
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 10-15KT OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 180707
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE SC COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NW. LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WSW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SE
STATES. TRENDED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS
NSSL WRF/HRRR. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SC ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE SHEAR SO
EXPECT ISO TSTM THREAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...AS SFC
LOW OVER TX/LA MOVES NE INTO TN/KY...WHILE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
TOUGH FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT THINK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVERZEALOUS
DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS
TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE/SREF. THINK CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE SE STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS 5KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-5FT IN ESE SWELL. VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS
MORNING...THEN NE/SE THROUGH THE DAY 5-10KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. E/NE
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 10-15KT OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 180444
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WSW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SE. TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
HIGHEST SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S NERN
SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
TOUGH FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW...BUT THINK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE OVERZEALOUS
DEVELOPING IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS
TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS/NARRE/SREF. THINK CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL...THOUGH WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE SE STATES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...DROPPED SCA FOR CENTRAL WATERS WITH BUOY 41025
DOWN TO 5FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS
LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...JAC/HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/CQD/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 180224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
LOOP IN THE VICINITY OF N GA/NW SC. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON SO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...6 FOOT SEAS STILL HANGING ON AT DIAMOND
SHOALS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
WATERS TO 05Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 180224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
LOOP IN THE VICINITY OF N GA/NW SC. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON SO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...6 FOOT SEAS STILL HANGING ON AT DIAMOND
SHOALS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
WATERS TO 05Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 180224
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE
LOOP IN THE VICINITY OF N GA/NW SC. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON SO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM FRI...6 FOOT SEAS STILL HANGING ON AT DIAMOND
SHOALS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FOR THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
WATERS TO 05Z. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 172306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS OVER
THE GULF STATES SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOP. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. SEABREEZE-TYPE CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS. ELEVATED
SEAS CONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIAMOND BUOY WITH 7 FOOT SEAS AT
PRESENT. HAVE LET SCA EXPIRE AT 7 PM FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
BUT WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THROUGH 02Z FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON
INLET TO OCRACOKE.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
         154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 172306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS OVER
THE GULF STATES SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOP. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. SEABREEZE-TYPE CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS. ELEVATED
SEAS CONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIAMOND BUOY WITH 7 FOOT SEAS AT
PRESENT. HAVE LET SCA EXPIRE AT 7 PM FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
BUT WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THROUGH 02Z FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON
INLET TO OCRACOKE.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
         154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 172306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS OVER
THE GULF STATES SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOP. MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE PLUS LIFT DURING THIS TIME. WILL SHORTLY
SEND OUT UPDATED ZONES WITH POPS TAPERED FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH TO
50 PERCENT SOUTH. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S
NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR POPS THROUGH 18Z. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREV DISC...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. SEABREEZE-TYPE CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS. ELEVATED
SEAS CONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIAMOND BUOY WITH 7 FOOT SEAS AT
PRESENT. HAVE LET SCA EXPIRE AT 7 PM FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE
BUT WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THROUGH 02Z FOR THE WATERS FROM OREGON
INLET TO OCRACOKE.

PREV DISC...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF
THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
         154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...HSA/JAC
SHORT TERM...HSA/JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/BM/CTC
MARINE...HSA/JAC/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171933
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE NC/SC COAST.
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. CONT SCT SHRA
FOR WRN HALF FA SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLD TSRA PSBL THRUT INTO
THE EARLY EVE HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AND WILL CONT WITH SLGT CHC SHRA FOR RMNDR EVE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND CROSSOVER TEMPS.
MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
BRING SUB-VFR THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE
SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILING HEIGHTS REMAINING MVFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
ELEVATED SEAS CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-6FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE RMNDR OF THE AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM
THE NW. DIAMOND BUOY STILL REPORTING 6 FT SEAS SO SCA CONTINUES
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BM
MARINE...JAC/CTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171933
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE NC/SC COAST.
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. CONT SCT SHRA
FOR WRN HALF FA SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLD TSRA PSBL THRUT INTO
THE EARLY EVE HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AND WILL CONT WITH SLGT CHC SHRA FOR RMNDR EVE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND CROSSOVER TEMPS.
MILD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FM THE UPR 50S NERN SXNS AND LWR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON SAT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
LWR 80S ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION ACRS INLAND SECTIONS. WILL HAVE A SLGHT CHC SHRA FOR
THE MORN HOURS THEN CHC SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN DURG MAX
HTG WITH THE HIER CHC POPS ACRS SW SXNS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SOME WET WEATHER UPCOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE...LIFT AND GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. RAMP POPS UP SLOWLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AS A PAIR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRY-SLOTTING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
MONDAY...LOW TO MID 80S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW/MID 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 70
TO 75. ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA FRIDAY AND MOVING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY. FOR CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP THURSDAY/FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND
80...LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
BRING SUB-VFR THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE
SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILING HEIGHTS REMAINING MVFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY WITH PERHAPS BOUTS OF IFR IS EXPECTED AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. AS USUAL...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
ELEVATED SEAS CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-6FT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE RMNDR OF THE AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM
THE NW. DIAMOND BUOY STILL REPORTING 6 FT SEAS SO SCA CONTINUES
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT 10KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-5FT...HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN CSTL WATERS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH WEAK
LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT NE-E WINDS 10KT OR LESS AND SEAS
2-4FT ON SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW WITH GUSTY SCA WINDS CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN...SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS
6 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BM
MARINE...JAC/CTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171806
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
206 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY BRING SUB-VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS REMAINING MVFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171806
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
206 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY BRING SUB-VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING MODELS ARE SHOWING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILING HEIGHTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THEREFORE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 06Z AS MODELS ARE INDICATING IFR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS REMAINING MVFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171616
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CURRENTLY AT OAJ ASSOC WITH SCT
SHRA AT LEAST THRU 18Z THIS AFTN. OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171616
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CURRENTLY AT OAJ ASSOC WITH SCT
SHRA AT LEAST THRU 18Z THIS AFTN. OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171616
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CURRENTLY AT OAJ ASSOC WITH SCT
SHRA AT LEAST THRU 18Z THIS AFTN. OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171616
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...RAISED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND LWR TO MID
70S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO SCT SHRA ACRS WRN HALF
FA GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUID. ALSO...ADDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT
BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS LOWER TO MID 70S
FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO AROUND 80 INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS CURRENTLY AT OAJ ASSOC WITH SCT
SHRA AT LEAST THRU 18Z THIS AFTN. OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AT 4-7FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY LESS THAN 15KT.
SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171412
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST. RAISED MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE OBX TO THE LWR 70S. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO
CHC ACRS COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTY THROUGH THE RMNDR OF THE MORN INTO
EARLY AFTN AS AN AREA OF PRECIP MAY WORK IN FROM THE SW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID- ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MID- MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES TODAY
REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ISO WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE OBSERVED. WILL CARRY MVFR CONDS THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS THROUGH ABT 18Z.

OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...MAIN CHANGE WILL DROP SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS AS
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 6 FT THERE. LATEST OBS SHOW E-SE
WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET 5-8FT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171412
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST. RAISED MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE OBX TO THE LWR 70S. ALSO...RAISED POPS TO
CHC ACRS COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTY THROUGH THE RMNDR OF THE MORN INTO
EARLY AFTN AS AN AREA OF PRECIP MAY WORK IN FROM THE SW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND
MID- ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE
GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MID- MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES TODAY
REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ISO WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE OBSERVED. WILL CARRY MVFR CONDS THERE FOR A FEW
HOURS THROUGH ABT 18Z.

OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...MAIN CHANGE WILL DROP SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS AS
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 6 FT THERE. LATEST OBS SHOW E-SE
WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS CONT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET 5-8FT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET FOR ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE
BULLISH THAN NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE
LATTER THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE
BULLISH THAN NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE
LATTER THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 171055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE
BULLISH THAN NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE
LATTER THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 171055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATE FROM THE NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
MOVING OFF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE
BULLISH THAN NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE
LATTER THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM...THOUGH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SHEAR ISO THREAT AT BEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND LOW/UPPER
70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE FOR EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 170858
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIUOS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-5 FT AT 7-8
SECS WILL PRODUCE HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
RIP CURRENTS...JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170858
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIUOS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-5 FT AT 7-8
SECS WILL PRODUCE HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
RIP CURRENTS...JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 170858
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SRN AND INLAND
SECTIONS SAT AFTN...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC
LOW CLOSER TO COAST SATURDAY AND STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH NAM AND ECMWF. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW WILL ENHANCE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SRN AND INLAND SECTIONS SAT AFTN. HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN FROM N
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
PERIOD WITH A WET FCST...AND NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES BUT
GENERALLY INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS
FROM W-SW...THUS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS DRY FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN MORNING OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS SAT AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC LOW CLOSER TO
SRN WATERS SAT AND CONTINUED PREVIUOS FCST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
NAM AND ECMWF WITH WEAK LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE...THUS LIGHT WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS SAT. SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM N WILL LEAD TO
NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-5 FT AT 7-8
SECS WILL PRODUCE HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
RIP CURRENTS...JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 170708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 170708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ENE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FROM THE
NW. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING OFF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
TODAY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
NAM/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS...DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...AND TRENDED WITH THE LATTER
THINKING THE GFS IS OVERDONE. HOWEVER DID ADD SC MENTION ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK SFC
INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AND
LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NW...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE SE COAST. LINGER ISO
SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS...LITTLE T/TD SPREAD AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO
20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE 4-6FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET...AND 5-8FT SOUTH. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER ENE OFF THE SE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS...NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AOB
10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170440
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE.
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS
AS THEY LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY 5-15 KT THOUGH 15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED
AT 5-8 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS
LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170440
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE.
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS
AS THEY LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY 5-15 KT THOUGH 15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED
AT 5-8 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS
LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/CQD/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170440
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE.
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH MINIMUM TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS
AS THEY LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR AT THE TAF SITES...THOUGH
PGV AWOS CONTINUES TO SHOW BAD OBS WITH BKN 100FT CEILINGS. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE EWN/OAJ THROUGH MID-MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BECOMING PRED VFR BY MID-MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT TODAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY 5-15 KT THOUGH 15-20KT ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED
AT 5-8 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS
LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/CQD/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 170241
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS THE MEAN
SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. 00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ. KPGV/KISO
SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS OBSERVED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED
BY LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6-9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 170241
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ. THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS THE MEAN
SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. 00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ. KPGV/KISO
SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS OBSERVED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED
BY LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6-9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 162329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO CALM OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS
THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06-12Z TONIGHT THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ.
KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED BY
LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE
OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 162329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO CALM OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS
THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06-12Z TONIGHT THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ.
KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED BY
LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE
OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 162329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO CALM OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS
THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06-12Z TONIGHT THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ.
KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED BY
LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE
OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 162329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 PM THURS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON
TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS EASTERN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME
SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY
LIFT THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH+ POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS
DRIER ON SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND
LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WEAK COASTAL LOW RESIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MIXED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO CALM OVERNIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN NC, MAINLY IMPACTING KEWN/KOAJ.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE AS
THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06-12Z TONIGHT THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE AT THE MVFR LEVELS. THUS ANTICIPATE BROKEN
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AT KEWN/KOAJ.
KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY AND BROKEN VFR CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, MOSTLY 5-15 KT THOUGH
SOME 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS NOTED BY
LATEST OBS AT BUOYS 41025 AND 41037. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS
ELEVATED AT 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS
TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE
OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/BTC
NEAR TERM...CCG/DAG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...CCG/JME/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING
OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FARLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH+
POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS DRIER ON
SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED AT 6 TO
9 FEET TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST
THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...CCG/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING
OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FARLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH+
POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS DRIER ON
SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED AT 6 TO
9 FEET TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST
THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...CCG/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST MOVING
NORTH ALONG COASTAL TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TIMING
OF THE LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER CONTINUED EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW...WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH FRIDAY AS DAMMING PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME SMALL
TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUING BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY LIFT THE
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OFF THE COAST. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING MOSTLY IF NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S  WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AND A FARLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN US PRODUCING DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. A NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH+
POSSIBLE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND THUS DRIER ON
SUNDAY SO HAVE DELAYED THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AND LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA AND END THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WARMING TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. LATE IN THE WEEK ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS ELEVATED AT 6 TO
9 FEET TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. FLOW OVER THE WATERS
WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEASTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH PAST
THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AS GRADIENT
STARTS TO RELAX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS...INTO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...EXPECTING BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. SUNDAY WINDS
WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...CCG/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...CGG/JME/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...CGG/JME/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...CGG/JME/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JME/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JME/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JME/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THUR...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND WILL BEGIN TO
CALM OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH CIGS LOWERING AS AN INFLUX OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MAINLY ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE
AS THE MEAN SUBSIDENT FLOW OVERCOMES THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
THUS WE ANTICIPATE BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. KPGV/KISO SHOULD OBSERVE MAINLY
VFR CIGS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AND BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JME/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161654
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1249 PM THU...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE
INLAND. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...SO
WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1253 PM THU...EASTERN WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
RUNNING MAINLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER ON TROUGHING
ALONG THE COAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS DAMMING PATTERN.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CGG/CQD/BTC/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 938 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. COASTAL TROUGHING WITH LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH A
FEW IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MESO MODELS WILL LOWER POPS A LITTLE...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOWING CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH
EXTENSIVE COUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NOT RISE MUCH OVER
CURRENT READINGS...INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. DAMMING PATTERN IN PLACE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAILY EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS AND 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS
4-8FT CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CGG/CQD/BTC/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN WEAK DAMMING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NC...COUPLED WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAN SEE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS
AND HIGH RES MODELS. WILL CONTINUE SC -RA/DZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES
STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS...OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN WEAK DAMMING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NC...COUPLED WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAN SEE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS
AND HIGH RES MODELS. WILL CONTINUE SC -RA/DZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES
STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS...OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 161109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN WEAK DAMMING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NC...COUPLED WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAN SEE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS
AND HIGH RES MODELS. WILL CONTINUE SC -RA/DZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES
STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS...OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 161109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1032MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN WEAK DAMMING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NC...COUPLED WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CAN SEE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON TRENDS
AND HIGH RES MODELS. WILL CONTINUE SC -RA/DZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES
STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SUB-VFR CEILING POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS...OFF THE GA/SC COAST. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 160737
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1031MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NY...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RES MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BEST COVERAGE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE SC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...INCREASING TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP TYPE OF EVENT. THINK
PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THE AREA. TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...BETWEEN NOW AND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 160737
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1031MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NY...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RES MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BEST COVERAGE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE SC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...INCREASING TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP TYPE OF EVENT. THINK
PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THE AREA. TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...BETWEEN NOW AND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 160737
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1031MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NY...WITH
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE SE STATES. WEAK LOW
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND PUSHING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK LOW WILL LINGER OFF
THE SE COAST TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH RES MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BEST COVERAGE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE SC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...INCREASING TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP TYPE OF EVENT. THINK
PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES STILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN TODAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST...WHILE WEAK SFC LOW LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ENE. LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THRU MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
EARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. AS UPPER FLOW BACKS
TO NW AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL DRIER AIR, PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST CLOUDS LINGER
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWS FRI
AND SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASING SUNDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHO THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER. SHUD BE ENOUGH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER TO HOLD MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND/UPPER 60S
COAST SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE WARM SECTOR BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED. RAINFALL TOTALS CUD BE AN INCH+ IF CURRENT
QPF PROJECTIONS HOLD.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHED ALTHO NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATED AS
THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING
INSTABILITY IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SFC
COLD FRONT CUD POP A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
THE AREA. TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THINK EWN/OAJ
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...BETWEEN NOW AND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. SUB VFR PERIODS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15KT NORTH OF
HATTERAS...AND E/NE 20-25KT SOUTH. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...4-6FT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 5-9FT SOUTH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SFC LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SE
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK TO MARGINAL FOR SCA. VEERING WINDS TODAY...BECOMING
MORE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT 10-20KT...LINGERING ROUGH SEAS 4-8FT
CONTINUE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE/GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER
TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT
LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...CQD/BTC/JME
MARINE...CQD/BTC/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 160445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST, MAKING IT AN OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK
IMPULSE RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID
AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
THINK EWN/OAJ WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON 15-20KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...A MODERATE NE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-7 FT SEAS
CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING AT
15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/CQD/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 160242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST, MAKING IT AN
OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A
WEAK IMPULSE RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING AT
15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 160242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASED POPS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST, MAKING IT AN
OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER
LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A
WEAK IMPULSE RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING AT
15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 152317
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED MORE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING
AT 15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 152317
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED MORE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING
AT 15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 152317
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED MORE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING
AT 15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 152317
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A VORTMAX SHIFTS EAST IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED MORE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW, HELPING AID IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS EXIST FOR EWN/OAJ. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS CONTINUES WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS
SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH DEVELOPING MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTINUING
AT 15-25KT AND SEAS 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHTAND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151905
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LIKELY SHARP GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER LTR THIS AFTN AND FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCRS TO
SCA LEVELS ACRS THE SRN PAMLICO SOUND LATE THU AFTN. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU AS PRES
GRAD TGTNS WITH DVLPG MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTG AT 15-25KT AND
SEAS 4-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151905
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LIKELY SHARP GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE WEAK SO ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY BUT EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AGAIN WITH A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND AROUND 80 SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUES TO LOOK WET ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU
FRIDAY MORNING THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE POSSIBLE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER LTR THIS AFTN AND FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCRS TO
SCA LEVELS ACRS THE SRN PAMLICO SOUND LATE THU AFTN. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU AS PRES
GRAD TGTNS WITH DVLPG MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTG AT 15-25KT AND
SEAS 4-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAINTAINS
MODERATE NE/N FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BENIGN SEAS. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW AROUND 20 KT WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151804
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
204 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LIKELY SHARP GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE
SOME RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS
WEAK LOW PASSES WELL EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
INLAND AREAS. AFTER A COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S, TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS RISE AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER LTR THIS AFTN AND FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCRS TO
SCA LEVELS ACRS THE SRN PAMLICO SOUND LATE THU AFTN. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU AS PRES
GRAD TGTNS WITH DVLPG MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTG AT 15-25KT AND
SEAS 4-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JME/BTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151804
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
204 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LIKELY SHARP GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE
SOME RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS
WEAK LOW PASSES WELL EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
INLAND AREAS. AFTER A COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S, TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS RISE AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER LTR THIS AFTN AND FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCRS TO
SCA LEVELS ACRS THE SRN PAMLICO SOUND LATE THU AFTN. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU AS PRES
GRAD TGTNS WITH DVLPG MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTG AT 15-25KT AND
SEAS 4-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JME/BTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151804
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
204 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...LIKELY SHARP GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER. WILL CONT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED BNDRY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE RGN ON THURSDAY. WILL CONT TO HAVE HIGHER LIKELY
POPS ACRS SOUTHERN AREAS...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RESULTS IN FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH AFTN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID AND UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE
SOME RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS
WEAK LOW PASSES WELL EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
INLAND AREAS. AFTER A COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S, TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS RISE AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA EXPIRES FOR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ALLIGATOR RIVER LTR THIS AFTN AND FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE
SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT. WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING WINDS MAY INCRS TO
SCA LEVELS ACRS THE SRN PAMLICO SOUND LATE THU AFTN. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON THU AS PRES
GRAD TGTNS WITH DVLPG MODERATE NE-E FLOW CONTG AT 15-25KT AND
SEAS 4-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUSTY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JME/BTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JME/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SW HAS YIELDED CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK EAST BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND THUS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN
OBSERVED. AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH...SATURATIONS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS HAVE CEILINGS LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTHER
TAF SITES WITH LOW END MVFR CRITERIA. WITH RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION...HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING ACROSS KISO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS KEWN/KOAJ. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME GUSTY JUST AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/LEP
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY
ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY
ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY
ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151708
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTN...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLDS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY
ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE
15-25KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS ACRS THE SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS SHOW STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25KT SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
NOW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLD EXPECTED AND
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CNTRL NC AND NERN SC. WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS AS PRECIP APRS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE CSTL PLAINS THUS EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO RMN DRY UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE
CONTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE NARRE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING EARLY AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WITH A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT.
4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTH WATERS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ACRS THE
SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
NOW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLD EXPECTED AND
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CNTRL NC AND NERN SC. WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS AS PRECIP APRS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE CSTL PLAINS THUS EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO RMN DRY UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE
CONTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE NARRE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING EARLY AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WITH A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT.
4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTH WATERS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ACRS THE
SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
NOW SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN NC. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS WITH ABNDT CLD EXPECTED AND
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CNTRL NC AND NERN SC. WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS AS PRECIP APRS TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE CSTL PLAINS THUS EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO RMN DRY UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN A WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE
CONTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE NARRE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING EARLY AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WITH A MODERATE N/NNE SURGE 15-25KT.
4-6 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTH WATERS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ACRS THE
SRN WATERS WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 151055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER
N/NE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH
LARGE AREA OF -RA ACROSS WESTERN NC/SC. EXPECT THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO BE DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W/SW...AS WEAK LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE NARRE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID-LATE MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE FRONT MODERATE N/NNE
SURGE 15-25KT HAS DEVELOPED. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS BUILDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SEAS TO 4-6FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE THIS MORNING...THEN 4-6FT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC





000
FXUS62 KMHX 151055
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER
N/NE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH
LARGE AREA OF -RA ACROSS WESTERN NC/SC. EXPECT THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY TO BE DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE W/SW...AS WEAK LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE NARRE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID-LATE MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY N/NE WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WED...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE FRONT MODERATE N/NNE
SURGE 15-25KT HAS DEVELOPED. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEAS BUILDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SEAS TO 4-6FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE THIS MORNING...THEN 4-6FT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC




000
FXUS62 KMHX 150746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM ABOUT KENANSVILLE TO NEW BERN...TO JUST NORTH OF
HATTERAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM
THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD POTENTIALLY SEE HIGHS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS PRECIP TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TO BE DRY WITH JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
W/SW...AS WEAK LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD N/NNE SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY GENERALLY 15-25KT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS BUILDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SEAS TO
4-6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE THIS MORNING...THEN 4-6FT THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. ISSUED SCA FOR SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN
WATERS...MORE MARGINAL FOR THE SOUNDS BUT EXPECT FREQ GUSTS TO
25KT AT LEAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA CONTINUES FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 150746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM ABOUT KENANSVILLE TO NEW BERN...TO JUST NORTH OF
HATTERAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE IN FROM
THE NW TODAY...WITH COOLER N/NE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD POTENTIALLY SEE HIGHS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS PRECIP TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TO BE DRY WITH JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
W/SW...AS WEAK LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COULD SEE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING THE
PRECIP SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH. MODELS SHOW WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. INCREASED POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND LOW
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. COOL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES, MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH THEN MOVE GRADUALLY NE WELL OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NC ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHUD SEE SOME RAIN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVES BUMPS RETREATING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WNW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL HANG ON
TO CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PASSES WELL
EAST BUT TAPER BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTER A
COOL/CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE AND AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHUD FEATURE PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 INLAND WITH UPPER
60S/LOW 70S COAST SATURDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY BUT EXPECT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES UP THRU THE SE STATES
LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THRU THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS GOING INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SUB-VFR CEILING COULD HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY ESP AT THE SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20KT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WSW. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS LINGER THRU THURSDAY THEN EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND THEN DETERIORATION DURING THE
LATTER HALF AS A WET SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING...BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD N/NNE SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY GENERALLY 15-25KT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS BUILDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SEAS TO
4-6FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE THIS MORNING...THEN 4-6FT THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. ISSUED SCA FOR SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN
WATERS...MORE MARGINAL FOR THE SOUNDS BUT EXPECT FREQ GUSTS TO
25KT AT LEAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCA CONTINUES FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT
SOUTH OF HATTERAS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE NE/N FLOW. SEAS MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT
OR LESS. WINDS TURN SE/SW ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
INCONSISTENCIES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD





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