Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 261437 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING THROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. WILL CARRY
POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261437 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING THROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. WILL CARRY
POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/CGG/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261419
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA
AND ADJACENT SOUND COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
END. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261419
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA
AND ADJACENT SOUND COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME HOURLY LOOP OF 1000-500 MB RH SHOWS
MOISTURE DECREASING. AS THE VORT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
END. WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH 18Z THEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...MIXED VFR/MVFR AT MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR ALL SITES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...HSA/CGG/TL/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE WEAKENING
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. FOG THAT HAS FORMED WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH HEATING.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SAT...AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED
ALONG DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA TAFS. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND DISSIPATES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 261026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 619 AM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE WEAKENING
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. FOG THAT HAS FORMED WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO WITH HEATING.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SAT...AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED
ALONG DISSIPATING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA TAFS. NOT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND DISSIPATES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM SAT...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS FROM LOOKOUT
NORTHWARD WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AS WEAKENING
FROM CUTTING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THIS
FRONT...BUT WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING. GRADIENT REMAINS
LOOSE FOR WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISC...AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT...KEEPING WIND SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260937
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 536 AM SAT...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT SHOWERS FORMING
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN IN GRIDS.

AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL











000
FXUS62 KMHX 260730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 139 AM SAT...AREA REMAINS IN GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AS BASE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
WITH WEAK FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. FOG
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UP TO AROUND 7K FEET IN THE MORNING SO EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 AM SAT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN HOT AND MUGGY...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECTED PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
HEAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN PINCHED ZONAL
FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL SUPPLY HUMID AIR. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 90S AND HIGH TD`S IN THE 70S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE AWFUL WITH LOWS NEAR 80 MOST LOCALES
IN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LONG RANGE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AS LARGE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. UPR
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS E NC
WILL BE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID ATLANTIC JET STREAK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF 35-40 KT. AT THE
SFC...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING NC MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM...HOT AND MUGGY AIR MASS ALONG WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SFC BASED CAPES ~3500-4000 J/KG...LI`S AS LOW AS -9
TO -10. BIGGEST THREATS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE MODE WILL COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HAVE
HEDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC WIND FLOW LOOKS TO
BE NORTHEASTERLY FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING DEWPOINTS TO AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 50S...NO DOUBT A REFRESHING TREAT FOR E NC THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH FIRST PART OF PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
SUN NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST
TUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM SAT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF IT. GRADIENT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING WIND
SPEEDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING 2 TO 3
FEET.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF AREA TONIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE
WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SW GRADIENT WILL PICK UP TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...ESP FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE SOUNDS WILL GUST ABOVE SCA RANGE ESP SUN
NIGHT. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON EVENING. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG//TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 260452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SAT...SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR...SHOULD SEE
SOME FOG FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1251 AM SAT...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 10 KNOTS OF LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WITH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/HSA/RF










000
FXUS62 KMHX 260452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SAT...SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR...SHOULD SEE
SOME FOG FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SAT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE LOWER LAYERS WITH ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLING SO AM EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVER TAF SITES
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG FORMING AT OAJ. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES AND CLOUD BASE
RISE. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING GENERALLY VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1251 AM SAT...EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 10 KNOTS OF LESS WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WITH RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/HSA/RF











000
FXUS62 KMHX 260149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SE US...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF THE NC/SC
BORDER...THINK MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THOUGH WILL INTRODUCE
POP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT...MOIST STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF
SITES. WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-3FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/CQD/RF
MARINE...HSA/CQD/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260149
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE SE US...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHEAR CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY SCT ACTIVITY OFF THE NC/SC
BORDER...THINK MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. THOUGH WILL INTRODUCE
POP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT...MOIST STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF
SITES. WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-3FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/CQD/RF
MARINE...HSA/CQD/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252348
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE WITH
SUNSET...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AND MOIST, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/RF
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252348
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRI...SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN COVERAGE WITH
SUNSET...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM AND MOIST, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE TO ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...ZPS/RF
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 252305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER SE NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUND COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE/SE WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
2-4FT...WITH NO SIG CHANGES OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...FORECAST AREA REMAINS RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL CONVECTION IS PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
PRECIP. LOWS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251838
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...FORECAST AREA REMAINS RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL CONVECTION IS PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
PRECIP. LOWS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING DURING THE
DAY SO HAVE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MID-
UPPER 80S ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO MON
MORN AS FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR
PRECIP. MAIN STORY SUN WILL BE HEAT AS MDLS ALL SHOW LOW LVL
THICKNESS RIDGE JUST TO THE W...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED
WITH DEWPTS MAINLY 70 TO 75 WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS 100 TO 105
SUN AFTN. GIVEN STRONG INSTAB CONT ISOLD POP SUN AFTN INLAND AS
SEA BRZ COULD FIRE A FEW CELLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR MID SUMMER WILL APPROACH FROM THE W SUN NIGHT AND
MON...GOOD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO MUGGY LOWS IN
THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE SUN NIGHT. GOOD HEATING EARLY MON WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH APPARENT TEMPS AGAIN
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY REACHING 105 INLAND. THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG INSTAB WITH CAPES PROGGED AOA 4000 MON AFTN. THIS INSTAB
COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND FORCING AHEAD OF UPR TRF
AND FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SVR WITH BIG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY MON
AFTN AND EVENING. CAPPED POPS AT GOOD CHC FOR NOW MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG OF STORMS.

FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT SMALL POP NEAR
CST...WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 85 DGR RANGE.
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS THE
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFF THE CST AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DEWPTS WILL DROP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE
80S...LOWS INLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. BY FRI FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO CST SO WENT WITH LOWER CHC POPS CLOSER TO
CST...HIGHS WILL CONT TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY. TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDNIGS SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 235 PM FRI...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU MON MORN AS SW FLOW
GRAD INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WITH LITTLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MON AFTN AND
CONT INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD
FRONT. STRONG INSTAB MON WILL LEAD TO A FEW OF THE STORMS POSS
BECOMING SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF SUB VFR
LIKELY AS THE SHRA AND STORMS CROSS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE E OF TAF
SITES LATER MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES...COULD SEE SOME
REDUCED CIGS BEHIND FRONT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW LVL INVERSION
DVLPS. DRIER AIR AND MAINLY VFR EXPECTED LATER TUE THRU WED AS
FRONT DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/
AS OF 235 PM FRI...SW FLOW WL GRAD RAMP UP SAT NIGHT THU SUN WITH
SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SAT
EVENING WILL GRAD BUILD...REACHING 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS LATE SUN.
SW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND PEAK MON AHEAD OF STRONG LATE
JULY COLD FRONT. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS MON WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY OFF THE CST MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH LIGHT MAINLY N/NE WIND
DEVELOPING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND 2 TO
4 FT TUE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH SEAS CONT 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE ALONG FAR SOUTHERN
EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES.

WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALUES...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA/TL/CGG
MARINE...HSA/TL/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251630
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRI...CUT BACK POPS TO CHANCE ALONG FAR SOUTHERN
EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES.

WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALUES...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA/TL/CGG
MARINE...HSA/TL/CGG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...CURRENT FORECAST REASONING STILL LOOKS SOUND.
LOOP OF HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALUES...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA/TL/CGG
MARINE...HSA/TL/CGG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
946 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...CURRENT FORECAST REASONING STILL LOOKS SOUND.
LOOP OF HOURLY ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALUES...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...IFR/MVFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA/TL/CGG
MARINE...HSA/TL/CGG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251117
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR
JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT
IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALS...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...IFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTH
FLOW SOUTHERN WATERS AS WEAK COOL FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 251117
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
717 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR
JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT
IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS VEERING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND FCST CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR VALS...SHOULD SUPPORT SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS TODAY DROP A BIT
WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW
80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...IFR CIGS DUE TO NE SFC FLOW/WEAK FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS E NC. THE LOW STRATUS WILL MIX OUT TO A SCT/BKN
VFR DECK BY MID MORNING TODAY. FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF
CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ
AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY VEERING SE
LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME RADIATION FG/BR
POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME CALM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTH
FLOW SOUTHERN WATERS AS WEAK COOL FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 250700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS DEVELOPING LIGHT SE FLOW AND FCST
CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY`S
ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS TODAY DROP A BIT WITH LIGHT NE
FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW 80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LOW CIGS IN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS WEAK NE FLOW
AND SUBTLE FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS BEHIND COOL FRONT. FRONT
WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY
VEERING SE LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME
RADIATION FG/BR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTH
FLOW SOUTHERN WATERS AS WEAK COOL FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 250700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKEN
SATURDAY. HOT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AND PLEASANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SFC COOL FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY OR JUST OFF THE COAST
TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY LOCATED NEARBY...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AS DEVELOPING LIGHT SE FLOW AND FCST
CAPE VALS AOA 1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY`S
ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS TODAY DROP A BIT WITH LIGHT NE
FLOW AND SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 80S...LOW 80S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANY
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES BRIEFLY RIDGING IN. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 206 AM FRI...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE FEATURES. SOME DEVIATION BY THURSDAY ON TIMING OF UPPER
TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF COUNTRY WITH TROUGHIN
CONTINUING OVER THE EAST COAST WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FRONT
DROPS INTO THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD INSTABILITY. FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LOW CIGS IN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS WEAK NE FLOW
AND SUBTLE FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS BEHIND COOL FRONT. FRONT
WILL WAVER NEAR THE VCNTY OF CRYSTAL COAST TODAY. COULD BE AN ISO
SHOWER/STORM ESP NEAR KOAJ AND KEWN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE EARLY
VEERING SE LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES MO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME
RADIATION FG/BR POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM FRI...MAINLY DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER. EXPECT FLYING CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION OF PREDAWN HOURS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO SUB VFR WITH LIGHT
WIND AND WET GROUND. FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS.
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...LIGHT NNE WINDS IN NORTHERN WATERS TO LIGHT SOUTH
FLOW SOUTHERN WATERS AS WEAK COOL FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS
VEER AROUND TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE DAY WITH SEAS REMAINING
ONLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 216 AM FRI...VARIABLE FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS INTO TROUGH. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 5 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 7 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 250210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND
FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE STATES...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS SW
TO JACKSONVILLE AND SURF CITY...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE...CO-LOCATED WITH THE AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THE NORTHERN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH AREA WORKED OVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT THINK THE MAIN THREATS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP NOW OVER RALEIGH.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU... MIXED BAG OF VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN LIKELY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT VEERING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST
BL...LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL TODAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY FRI
MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE PREDOMINATE
SE/SW WINDS 5-15 KT..WITH GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS...AND SEAS 2-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING
FORECAST. LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DOWN
TOWARDS SURF CITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVE TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON FRI.
WINDS WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/CQD
NEAR TERM...DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 250210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND
FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE STATES...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS SW
TO JACKSONVILLE AND SURF CITY...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE...CO-LOCATED WITH THE AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THE NORTHERN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH AREA WORKED OVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT THINK THE MAIN THREATS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP NOW OVER RALEIGH.
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU... MIXED BAG OF VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN LIKELY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT VEERING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST
BL...LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL TODAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY FRI
MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE PREDOMINATE
SE/SW WINDS 5-15 KT..WITH GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS...AND SEAS 2-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING
FORECAST. LINE OF CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DOWN
TOWARDS SURF CITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVE TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON FRI.
WINDS WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/CQD
NEAR TERM...DAG/CQD
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 242304
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
704 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK
THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THIS EVENING...WITH MANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL TRAINING CELLS AND HIGH
TIDE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
ZONES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU... MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN LIKELY TAPERING OFF. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT VEERING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST
BL...LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL TODAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY FRI MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE PREDOMINATE
SE/SW WINDS 5-15 KT..WITH GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS...AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING
FORECAST. AREA OF ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON FRI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 242304
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
704 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG WINDS...BUT THINK
THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THIS EVENING...WITH MANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL TRAINING CELLS AND HIGH
TIDE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
ZONES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU... MIXED BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN LIKELY TAPERING OFF. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT VEERING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH MOIST
BL...LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL TODAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY FRI MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE PREDOMINATE
SE/SW WINDS 5-15 KT..WITH GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS...AND SEAS 2-4 FT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING
FORECAST. AREA OF ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON FRI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 241840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURS...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BUT
THE LINK HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED. THE LINE OF STORMS
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL OBX WEST TO SOUTH OF NEW BERN
WEST TO NEAR KENANSVILLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLIER BUT LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES
INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 KT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
45 KT FARTHER INLAND WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED
OVER. MULTI MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8
C...SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 14750-15250 FEET WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST MUCH WIDESPREAD HAIL THREAT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEABREEZE HAVE ALL BEEN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO WANE FOR INLAND/NW ZONES THAT HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER. 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA.
HAVE TRENDED POPS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG INLAND FOR AREAS THAT OBSERVED
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURS...STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL
AFFECT MAINLY TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTH
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
BKN-OVC MID DECK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SO AM NOT FORECASTING DENSE
FOG... WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR. MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT ONLY ISOLATED SO DID NOT PUT IN A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WSW/SW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DUE TO A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE WATERS.
NORTH OF THIS LINE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NW AND HAVE GUSTED UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON
FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURS...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BUT
THE LINK HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEAKENED. THE LINE OF STORMS
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL OBX WEST TO SOUTH OF NEW BERN
WEST TO NEAR KENANSVILLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT WAS
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLIER BUT LATEST SPC MESOANALYSES
INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 KT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
45 KT FARTHER INLAND WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED
OVER. MULTI MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8
C...SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT HAIL AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 14750-15250 FEET WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST MUCH WIDESPREAD HAIL THREAT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEABREEZE HAVE ALL BEEN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO WANE FOR INLAND/NW ZONES THAT HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER. 16Z HRRR SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE AREA.
HAVE TRENDED POPS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG INLAND FOR AREAS THAT OBSERVED
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURS...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS FRI WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDING
SOUTH OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NE THEN E BY
LATE IN THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS AND UPPER SUPPORT
REMAIN OFF THE NC COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL ROUGHLY 20 METERS FRI ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BUILD INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WED...FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS
UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR CSTL
WTRS FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. MDLS AGREE NOW THAT SUN SHLD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NW SO LOWERED
POPS TO SLIGHT INLAND. BEST CHC OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON AFTN AND
EVENING AS RATHER STRONG FRONT FOR LATE JULY PUSHES THRU THE
REGION...CONT CHC POPS. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND STALLS MID WEEK
WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY DRY WX EXPECTED. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE THU SO INCREASED POPS TO CHC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND SAT THEN 90 TO 95 SUN AND MON  WITH GOOD
LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH
OF THE CST TUE AND STALL OFFSHORE WED AND THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURS...STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL
AFFECT MAINLY TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTH
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
BKN-OVC MID DECK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SO AM NOT FORECASTING DENSE
FOG... WILL LEAVE IT AT MVFR. MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT ONLY ISOLATED SO DID NOT PUT IN A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG MON AND
MON EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE FRONT SHLD PUSH E OF TAF SITES TUE
WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WSW/SW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS HAVE BEEN ALTERED DUE TO A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE WATERS.
NORTH OF THIS LINE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NW AND HAVE GUSTED UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST ON
FRI. WINDS WILL SHIFT N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURS...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
BECOMING SSW 10 TO 15 KTS LATER SAT. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND
MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN
AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG THRU MON EVENING. AS
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW TO N BELOW 15 KT.

SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET FRI EVENING THRU MOST OF SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND REACH 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL
PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FT LATER SUN NIGHT THRU MON EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO NW AND N BEHIND FRONT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE MON
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH 2 TO 4 FT BY TUE AFTN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241411
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. SPC
HAS UPGRADED EASTERN NC FROM SEE TEXT TO SLIGHT RISK AS SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
FORECAST. 1345Z SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30 KT OVER THE AREA NOW WITH A 35 KT MAX OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI
MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8 C...SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT HAIL AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ON
THE ORDER OF 14750-15250 FEET WOULD ARGUE AGAINST MUCH WIDESPREAD
HAIL THREAT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING...THEN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
AROUND MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE
ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH LIFTED INDICES -5 TO -8 C AND SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WSW/SW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AND 1-3 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE FLOW SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241411
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. SPC
HAS UPGRADED EASTERN NC FROM SEE TEXT TO SLIGHT RISK AS SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
FORECAST. 1345Z SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30 KT OVER THE AREA NOW WITH A 35 KT MAX OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI
MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8 C...SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT HAIL AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ON
THE ORDER OF 14750-15250 FEET WOULD ARGUE AGAINST MUCH WIDESPREAD
HAIL THREAT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING...THEN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
AROUND MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE
ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH LIFTED INDICES -5 TO -8 C AND SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WSW/SW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AND 1-3 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE FLOW SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 241139
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE
A UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ISOL SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE TRIGGER
MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AROUND MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY
PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG WHILE 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SPC HAS THE REGION THE SEE TEXT TODAY WITH THE
BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIMITING THE
HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1420
METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM THURS...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT ISO IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-13Z OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING
AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO
NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE
A UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH ISOL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
IMPROVES WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ON THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE ANALYZED ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION AND AROUND 25 KT
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE.

ISOL SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE
TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AROUND MID DAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH
LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG WHILE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH
REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SPC HAS THE REGION THE SEE TEXT TODAY
WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
LIMITING THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
PREVENTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE DAWN...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR AND
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO
NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240852
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE
A UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH ISOL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
IMPROVES WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION ON THE UPPER JET COMBINED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE ANALYZED ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED INVERSION AND AROUND 25 KT
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE.

ISOL SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE
TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER AROUND MID DAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH
LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG WHILE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH
REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SPC HAS THE REGION THE SEE TEXT TODAY
WITH THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
LIMITING THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
PREVENTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE DAWN...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR AND
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO
NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND A SFC
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
HAVING MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MESO
MODELS APPEAR OVERDONE WITH PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS. LIGHT SW FLOW
PERSISTS WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRECLUDE MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS
MIXED PREVENTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE DAWN...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR AND
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A
MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...BERMUDA HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND A SFC
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
HAVING MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. MESO
MODELS APPEAR OVERDONE WITH PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS. LIGHT SW FLOW
PERSISTS WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRECLUDE MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SW FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS
MIXED PREVENTING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS BEFORE DAWN...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR AND
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AFFECTING PGV AND ISO.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A
MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING AND STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING
FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM THURS...THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BUOY OBS SHOWING SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 240219
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS REFORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWOFF. FORECAST SOUNDGINGS SHOWING SOME
3-4K MOISTURE TONIGHT. ALSO SHOWING SURFACE BASED SATURATION INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE PUT SOME LIGHT  MVFR FOG IN THE TAFS FOR A
FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONT MOVING INTO AREA OVER NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE ASSOCIATED STORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1018 PM WED...SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET. SPEEDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER NIGHT.

PREV DISC...LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/DAG/CGG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240219
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS REFORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWOFF. FORECAST SOUNDGINGS SHOWING SOME
3-4K MOISTURE TONIGHT. ALSO SHOWING SURFACE BASED SATURATION INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE PUT SOME LIGHT  MVFR FOG IN THE TAFS FOR A
FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONT MOVING INTO AREA OVER NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE ASSOCIATED STORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1018 PM WED...SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET. SPEEDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER NIGHT.

PREV DISC...LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/DAG/CGG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 232259
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 659 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EARLY EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECTED THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTUREEVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO MAY
HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. ALSO SOME TOOLS SHOWING
SURFACE BASED MOISTURE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SO MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWOFF. FORECAST SOUNDGINGS SHOWING SOME
3-4K MOISTURE TONIGHT. ALSO SHOWING SURFACE BASED SATURATION INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE PUT SOME LIGHT  MVFR FOG IN THE TAFS FOR A
FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONT MOVING INTO AREA OVER NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE ASSOCIATED STORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 654 PM WED...SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET. GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP.
SPEEDS ON THE MIDDLE COASTAL WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE FOOT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT UNDER
INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/DAG/CGG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 232259
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 659 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EARLY EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECTED THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTUREEVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO MAY
HAVE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER NIGHT. ALSO SOME TOOLS SHOWING
SURFACE BASED MOISTURE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SO MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWOFF. FORECAST SOUNDGINGS SHOWING SOME
3-4K MOISTURE TONIGHT. ALSO SHOWING SURFACE BASED SATURATION INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE PUT SOME LIGHT  MVFR FOG IN THE TAFS FOR A
FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONT MOVING INTO AREA OVER NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE ASSOCIATED STORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 654 PM WED...SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET. GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENING WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP.
SPEEDS ON THE MIDDLE COASTAL WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE FOOT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS EVENING WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT UNDER
INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/DAG/CGG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 231942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR
INLAND SECTIONS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
PERSISTS INLAND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED SW TO NE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

19Z LAPS SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH PWATS 2.20
INCHES AND MODEST INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW -5 C
AND SBCAPE VALUES BUILD ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BUT REMAIN MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LACK OF SEA-BREEZE TRIGGER...THOUGH SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. SW GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT AND
JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER TO
RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND.
LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND FRONT
WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL. COULD AGAIN SEE REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION
CONDITIONS THURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN NC WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 7-8 SECONDS. DIAMOND
SHOALS HAS STARTED TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BUT SEAS REMAIN AROUND
3 FT. LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND
2-4 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 231942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR
INLAND SECTIONS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
PERSISTS INLAND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED SW TO NE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

19Z LAPS SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH PWATS 2.20
INCHES AND MODEST INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW -5 C
AND SBCAPE VALUES BUILD ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BUT REMAIN MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LACK OF SEA-BREEZE TRIGGER...THOUGH SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. SW GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT AND
JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER TO
RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND.
LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND FRONT
WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL. COULD AGAIN SEE REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION
CONDITIONS THURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN NC WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 7-8 SECONDS. DIAMOND
SHOALS HAS STARTED TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BUT SEAS REMAIN AROUND
3 FT. LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND
2-4 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIALIZING
ACROSS JONES/PITT COUNTIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER CUT- OFF LOW GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS INDICTING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY WITH
WEAK W/SW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
PWATS AOA 2 INCHES. INCREASED INSOLATION WILL BRINGING GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 TO -6
C AND SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS
WILL BE THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST THOUGH
PULSE STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BUFKIT SHOWS WEAK MBE VELOCITY MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT
SUGGESTING SLOW STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REACH 1415-1420M THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...THE SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT
THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SEE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY MAINLY OFFSHORE INVOF THE GULF
STREAM. LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
EXPECTED LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...WEAK UPR RIDGE BREAK DOWNS THU WITH APPROACH OF
SHORT WV TROF AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR THU
AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS NW ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WV...APPROACHING
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS NEAR SRN
TIER LATE. STG STMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY WINDS
30-35 KT MOVES INTO THE RGN THU AFTN INTO FRI EVE ALONG WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON FRI THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHES OUT OVER
SRN TIER. KEPT LOW CHC POPS NW TIER ASOCD WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND FRONT...CONT HIGHER CHCS NEAR THE CST WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH. FRI NIGHT THUR SAT NIGHT LOOKS DRIER AS UPR TRF DRIFTS E WITH
LIMITED FORCING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PCT
RANGE...HIGHEST CST WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER.

INLAND SFC TROF WILL DEVELOP TO THE W SUN WITH THREAT OF WDLY SCT TO
SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST CVRG INLAND. ANOTHER UPR TROF AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MON WITH FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA TUE. KEPT
CHC POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WARM DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S INLAND.
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES TO THE S. SW FLOW RESUMES IN EARNEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND
CONTG INTO MON WITH TEMPS WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LWR 90S
INLAND. TEMPS COOL AGAIN INTO THE 80S AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL. COULD AGAIN SEE REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION
CONDITIONS THURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN NC WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SW
LOW LVL FLOW LIMITING THE FOG THREAT HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS AT TIMES. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER
THU AND THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION THU AND THU EVE AND THEN MAY SEE STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP IN THE WAKE OF FRONT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 7-8 SECONDS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED ON THU AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS FOR THU
AND THU EVE SPLY ACRS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP SEAS CAPPED AT 5 FT. FRONT WILL SAG SE THRU MOST OF THE
REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH DIMINISHING SW WINDS THU
EVENING THAT WILL BECOME NELY NRN TIER ON FRI. ACROSS SRN TIER FRONT
WL LIKELY STALL IN THE VCNTY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON FRI.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI. AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE
HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT EXPECT SW FLOW TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER SUN AS THE PRES GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
SHARPENING TROF INLAND AND OFFSHORE HIGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/DAG
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 231740
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
JUST INLAND OF THE CRYSTAL COAST WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIALIZING
ACROSS JONES/PITT COUNTIES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER CUT- OFF LOW GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS INDICTING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY WITH
WEAK W/SW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
PWATS AOA 2 INCHES. INCREASED INSOLATION WILL BRINGING GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 TO -6
C AND SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS
WILL BE THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST THOUGH
PULSE STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BUFKIT SHOWS WEAK MBE VELOCITY MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT
SUGGESTING SLOW STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REACH 1415-1420M THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...THE SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT
THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SEE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY MAINLY OFFSHORE INVOF THE GULF
STREAM. LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
EXPECTED LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...WEAK UPR RIDGE BREAK DOWNS THU WITH APPROACH OF
SHORT WV TROF AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR THU
AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS NW ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WV...APPROACHING
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS NEAR SRN
TIER LATE. STG STMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY WINDS
30-35 KT MOVES INTO THE RGN THU AFTN INTO FRI EVE ALONG WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON FRI THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHES OUT OVER
SRN TIER. KEPT LOW CHC POPS NW TIER ASOCD WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND FRONT...CONT HIGHER CHCS NEAR THE CST WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH. FRI NIGHT THUR SAT NIGHT LOOKS DRIER AS UPR TRF DRIFTS E WITH
LIMITED FORCING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PCT
RANGE...HIGHEST CST WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER.

INLAND SFC TROF WILL DEVELOP TO THE W SUN WITH THREAT OF WDLY SCT TO
SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST CVRG INLAND. ANOTHER UPR TROF AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MON WITH FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA TUE. KEPT
CHC POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WARM DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S INLAND.
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES TO THE S. SW FLOW RESUMES IN EARNEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND
CONTG INTO MON WITH TEMPS WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LWR 90S
INLAND. TEMPS COOL AGAIN INTO THE 80S AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL. COULD AGAIN SEE REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION
CONDITIONS THURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN NC WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SW
LOW LVL FLOW LIMITING THE FOG THREAT HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS AT TIMES. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER
THU AND THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION THU AND THU EVE AND THEN MAY SEE STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP IN THE WAKE OF FRONT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 7-8 SECONDS. THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED ON THU AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS FOR THU
AND THU EVE SPLY ACRS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP SEAS CAPPED AT 5 FT. FRONT WILL SAG SE THRU MOST OF THE
REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH DIMINISHING SW WINDS THU
EVENING THAT WILL BECOME NELY NRN TIER ON FRI. ACROSS SRN TIER FRONT
WL LIKELY STALL IN THE VCNTY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON FRI.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI. AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE
HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT EXPECT SW FLOW TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER SUN AS THE PRES GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
SHARPENING TROF INLAND AND OFFSHORE HIGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/DAG
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities