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000
FXUS62 KMHX 051648
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTN FCST.
PREVIOUS THINKING OF BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES REST OF
MORNING...THEN INCREASED AFTN POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS BUT DECREASED TO 20% SRN OBX AND CART/ONSLOW COASTAL
SECTIONS. UPDATED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT THICKER MID CLOUDS
AFFECTING ERN 2/3 OF AREA WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.

THICKER MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN SECTIONS
AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH INLAND THERMAL TROFFING. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE SCT-BKN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE WRN
AND NRN SECTIONS. WIND FIELDS NOT AS STRONG IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CLOUD COVER SLOWING HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID-UPR 80S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY THEN RETURN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO PROVIDE
DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS
HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI`S
OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED
BY EFFECTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINLY JUST WEST OF EASTERN NC. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT 30-40% POPS SO WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH 20-40% COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
COULD COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED AND MOST OF WATERS WILL SEE SW 10-15 KT
TODAY. NRN WATERS WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK FRONT
DROPPING INTO AREA FROM N.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED 3 TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL WATERS EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 051410
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES REST OF
MORNING...THEN INCREASED AFTN POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS BUT DECREASED TO 20% SRN OBX AND CART/ONSLOW COASTAL
SECTIONS. UPDATED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT THICKER MID CLOUDS
AFFECTING ERN 2/3 OF AREA WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.

THICKER MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN SECTIONS
AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH INLAND THERMAL TROFFING. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE SCT-BKN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE WRN
AND NRN SECTIONS. WIND FIELDS NOT AS STRONG IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CLOUD COVER SLOWING HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID-UPR 80S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY THEN RETURN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO PROVIDE
DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS
HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI`S
OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED
BY EFFECTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINLY JUST WEST OF EASTERN NC. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT 30-40% POPS SO WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH 20-40% COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
COULD COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED AND MOST OF WATERS WILL SEE SW 10-15 KT
TODAY. NRN WATERS WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK FRONT
DROPPING INTO AREA FROM N.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED 3 TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL WATERS EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 051410
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES REST OF
MORNING...THEN INCREASED AFTN POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN AND NRN
SECTIONS BUT DECREASED TO 20% SRN OBX AND CART/ONSLOW COASTAL
SECTIONS. UPDATED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT THICKER MID CLOUDS
AFFECTING ERN 2/3 OF AREA WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.

THICKER MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE THIS AFTN WILL BE WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN SECTIONS
AND THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH INLAND THERMAL TROFFING. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE SCT-BKN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE WRN
AND NRN SECTIONS. WIND FIELDS NOT AS STRONG IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS BUT ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CLOUD COVER SLOWING HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID-UPR 80S COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY THEN RETURN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO PROVIDE
DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS
HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI`S
OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED
BY EFFECTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINLY JUST WEST OF EASTERN NC. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT 30-40% POPS SO WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH 20-40% COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
COULD COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED AS EXPECTED AND MOST OF WATERS WILL SEE SW 10-15 KT
TODAY. NRN WATERS WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK FRONT
DROPPING INTO AREA FROM N.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED 3 TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL WATERS EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 051031
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY THEN RETURN
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO PROVIDE
DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS
HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI`S
OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR. COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED
BY EFFECTS OF WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE
AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MAINLY JUST WEST OF EASTERN NC. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT 30-40% POPS SO WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH 20-40% COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE TONIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
COULD COULD BRIEFLY DECOUPLE LEADING TO PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED 3 TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALL WATERS EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO
BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 4 FT TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 050747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY
THEN RETURN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO
PROVIDE DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LI`S OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 050747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY
THEN RETURN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO
PROVIDE DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LI`S OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY
THEN RETURN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO
PROVIDE DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LI`S OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 050747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN OFFSHORE HIGH
AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TODAY OVER THE TN VALLEY THEN
DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE
MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC TODAY
THEN RETURN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO
PROVIDE DETAIL WITH REGARDS TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT ESSENTIALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COAST. WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LI`S OF -4 TO -7 AND MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THUS SPC HAS
PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TODAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AROUND 2"
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY WITH TAIL
END OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S/UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UPPER LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS WEAKENS MON AS
IT LIFTS NNE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW
AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BEST FORCING EXPECTED N/W OF THE AREA MON THOUGH STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT/NUM SHOWER/TSTMS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOUR. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT AS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
TO 5 FT SO HAVE CANCELLED ALL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FAR NORTH WHERE SAGGING FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE TODAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT
TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED MON THROUGH
THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRED S/SWLY FLOW 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...HUMID SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS, OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS LOOK A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM-12
WAS FORECASTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
VICINITY OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY AROUND 1
AM. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY CENTRAL LEG AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FT
THERE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH
WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 050451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...HUMID SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS, OTHERWISE MOST OTHER CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP-13 MODELS LOOK A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEPICTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM-12
WAS FORECASTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND BASED ON
TRENDS IN THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST THOUGH AND THIS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS PHENOMENA WILL FORECAST SCATTERED 900 CLOUDS INLAND WHERE
RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER, OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY WITH ONLY AROUND 20%
COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...BASED ON TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
VICINITY OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY AROUND 1
AM. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY CENTRAL LEG AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FT
THERE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH
WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS
RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
     154-156.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050246
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG HWY 64. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ISOLATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE GUSTY SW WINDS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4 TO 6 FT CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS CONDITIONS WERE
BELOW CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FOR PAMLICO SOUND...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL
RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4
FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 050246
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG HWY 64. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ISOLATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE GUSTY SW WINDS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4 TO 6 FT CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS CONDITIONS WERE
BELOW CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FOR PAMLICO SOUND...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL
RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4
FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050246
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG HWY 64. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ISOLATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE GUSTY SW WINDS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4 TO 6 FT CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS CONDITIONS WERE
BELOW CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FOR PAMLICO SOUND...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL
RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4
FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 050246
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG HWY 64. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTIONED OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ISOLATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE GUSTY SW WINDS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4 TO 6 FT CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS CONDITIONS WERE
BELOW CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FOR PAMLICO SOUND...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO
NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT WILL
RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT
SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4
FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 042255
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER FORCING TO
WORK WITH, WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING ...LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 042255
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER FORCING TO
WORK WITH, WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING ...LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 042255
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN OFFSHORE HIGH AND INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...RADAR SHOWS RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER FORCING TO
WORK WITH, WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING ...LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 042035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROUGH
PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCT TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF HWY 264 EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BUT DIMINISHED SVR THREAT. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY ON OUTFLOW JUST SOUTH OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED CHC POPS NRN HALF OF AREA THROUGH EVENING
WITH JUST SLGT CHC S. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH WEAK SHRT WVS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
MID ATLC COAST. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...LOW-MID 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT AND
MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THEN ANOTHER LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
ISO/OAJ/EWN VICINITY. SO HAVE VCTS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANTICIPATE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS
WELL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY SUNRISE. EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD BUT LOCALIZED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN...HAVE CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK




000
FXUS62 KMHX 042035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROUGH
PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCT TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF HWY 264 EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BUT DIMINISHED SVR THREAT. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY ON OUTFLOW JUST SOUTH OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY...AND CONTINUED CHC POPS NRN HALF OF AREA THROUGH EVENING
WITH JUST SLGT CHC S. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH WEAK SHRT WVS MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF
MID ATLC COAST. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...LOW-MID 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS.
UPR LOW DIGGING OVER OH/TN VLY WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER
ERN NC DURING THE DAY...WITH MAIN SHRT WV ENERGY SHIFTING W AND N
OF AREA. WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS DURING
MORNING...THEN STALL AND DRIFT BACK N DURING AFTN WITH INLAND
TROFFING DEVELOPING. SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTN
WITH POPS 40% AND JUST SLIGHT CHC ALONG COAST. MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM STARTS WITH A MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT
QUICKER LIFTING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT WITH IMPROVED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM FLOW AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MODELS PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT AND
MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THEN ANOTHER LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
ISO/OAJ/EWN VICINITY. SO HAVE VCTS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANTICIPATE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS
WELL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY SUNRISE. EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD BUT LOCALIZED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN...HAVE CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT SRN WATERS AND PAM SOUND...BUT PERSISTING CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL SUN MORNING WITH LINGERING 6 FT SEAS. WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NRN WATERS SUN MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT TO N-NE THERE. FRONT
WILL RETURN SUN AFTN WITH SW WINDS RETURNING. TYPICAL SW WINDS
10-15 KT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH DOMINATING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING UP TO 20 KT...MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH THERMAL HEATING INLAND...WILL BE
THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH AND NWPS IN
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING BUT WAVEWATCH DOES BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT AND
MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THEN ANOTHER LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
ISO/OAJ/EWN VICINITY. SO HAVE VCTS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANTICIPATE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS
WELL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY SUNRISE. EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD BUT LOCALIZED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN...HAVE CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041722
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT AND
MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAND HILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THEN ANOTHER LINE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
ISO/OAJ/EWN VICINITY. SO HAVE VCTS THROUGH 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
ANTICIPATE REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS
WELL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY SUNRISE. EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD BUT LOCALIZED TO AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN...HAVE CALM WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/LEP
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041712
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041712
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041712
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041712
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SPC HAS UPDATED
ERN HALF OF AREA TO SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS LATER
AFTN INTO EVENING. RELATIVELY STRONG MID LVL WRLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE UPPER AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO
SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT WETTER. WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES UNTIL EARLY AFTN
AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO PC INTO MID AFTN. GUSTY W-SW WINDS
ACROSS AREA REST OF TODAY WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO THE N
WITH 12Z MHX RAOB INDICATING WRLY WIND AROUND 45 KT UP TO 500 MB.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR ERN
NC...THUS DROPPED POPS UNTIL AFTN. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCT ACTIVITY WRN AND NRN SECTIONS MID AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS MAINTAINED CHC/SCT POPS BUT DID REDUCE SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS TO 20%. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES UNTIL EARLY AFTN
AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO PC INTO MID AFTN. GUSTY W-SW WINDS
ACROSS AREA REST OF TODAY WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO THE N
WITH 12Z MHX RAOB INDICATING WRLY WIND AROUND 45 KT UP TO 500 MB.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR ERN
NC...THUS DROPPED POPS UNTIL AFTN. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCT ACTIVITY WRN AND NRN SECTIONS MID AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS MAINTAINED CHC/SCT POPS BUT DID REDUCE SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS TO 20%. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES UNTIL EARLY AFTN
AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO PC INTO MID AFTN. GUSTY W-SW WINDS
ACROSS AREA REST OF TODAY WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO THE N
WITH 12Z MHX RAOB INDICATING WRLY WIND AROUND 45 KT UP TO 500 MB.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR ERN
NC...THUS DROPPED POPS UNTIL AFTN. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCT ACTIVITY WRN AND NRN SECTIONS MID AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS MAINTAINED CHC/SCT POPS BUT DID REDUCE SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS TO 20%. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041532
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN TONIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED POPS ALL ZONES UNTIL EARLY AFTN
AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO PC INTO MID AFTN. GUSTY W-SW WINDS
ACROSS AREA REST OF TODAY WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO THE N
WITH 12Z MHX RAOB INDICATING WRLY WIND AROUND 45 KT UP TO 500 MB.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW GENERALLY INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR ERN
NC...THUS DROPPED POPS UNTIL AFTN. LATEST MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SCT ACTIVITY WRN AND NRN SECTIONS MID AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS MAINTAINED CHC/SCT POPS BUT DID REDUCE SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS TO 20%. NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTN WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS TO N...WITH
SCA WINDS/SEAS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 041008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
608 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 041008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
608 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS.
EXPECTING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL
FORECAST HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS.
THE MAV (GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WILL BE
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO FORECAST VCTS AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT WITH NO STRONG
INDICATION IN THE AVIATION GUIDANCE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SW FLOW, HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO
A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS. EXPECTING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL FORECAST
HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS. THE MAV
(GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH WIND FOR ANY THREAT OF FOG. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK
OF SUPPORT IN THE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL AMMEND IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WILL BE GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO
FORECAST VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR LOWER
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS PRODUCING
AN ENHANCED SW FLOW HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS. EXPECTING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL FORECAST
HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS. THE MAV
(GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH WIND FOR ANY THREAT OF FOG. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK
OF SUPPORT IN THE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL AMMEND IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WILL BE GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO
FORECAST VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR LOWER
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS PRODUCING
AN ENHANCED SW FLOW HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERNS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK MEANDERING
BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE REGION BUT POISED TO SAG SOUTH AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY
WERE INDICATING THAT THE 4TH OF JULY WOULD SEE A MINIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION BUT NOW THE 00Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT WETTER.
WHILE NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT TODAY, THE COVERAGE OF OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 40% BY LATE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.

WEAKER SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM ORGANIZATION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT TODAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2" SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS. EXPECTING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SW FLOW AND WILL FORECAST
HIGHS INLAND IN THE LOWER 90S PER THE MET AND ECMWF MOS. THE MAV
(GFS) MOS LOOKED TOO COOL FOR HIGHS. AS A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
LOWS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVENING BUT WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING SUN AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH
SEABREEZE...LINGERING OUTFLOW/DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE N/W WILL RESULT IN SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY MON...THEN
GRADUALLY NNE MON NIGHT AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCES INLAND...WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROUGHING INLAND. SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE WEEK. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH WIND FOR ANY THREAT OF FOG. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK
OF SUPPORT IN THE GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL AMMEND IF NEEDED. LOOKS LIKE
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WILL BE GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE EVENTS WILL NEED TO
FORECAST VCTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR LOWER
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON
THROUGH WED. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS PRODUCING
AN ENHANCED SW FLOW HIGHEST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
AND OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE LEADING TO A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 6 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN STALL SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT MONDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
DROP...BUT LIKELY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND
NEAR OREGON INLET BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTIONS TRICKY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT BECOMING N/NE 5-10KT AND REMAINING SW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRED S/SW FLOW 10-20KT RETURNS BY MON AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 040143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT IN CASE ANY
WEAK PERTURBATION ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A MOIST BNOUDARY LAYER, BUT
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIP FREE. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS
MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND
15-20 KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 040143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT IN CASE ANY
WEAK PERTURBATION ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A MOIST BNOUDARY LAYER, BUT
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIP FREE. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS
MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND
15-20 KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 040143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT IN CASE ANY
WEAK PERTURBATION ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A MOIST BNOUDARY LAYER, BUT
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIP FREE. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS
MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND
15-20 KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 032326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THRU THE EVENING THEN ACTIVITY SHUD WANE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES
THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND
LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THRU THE EVENING THEN ACTIVITY SHUD WANE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES
THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND
LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/TSTMS NEXT 3 HOURS AS THICKER CLOUD COVER LIMITIED HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. TEMPS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR HIGHS LOW-MID
80S.

WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NRN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED BUT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. LATEST MESO MODELS
INDICATE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER COASTAL PLAINS WITH ISOLATED
ALONG COAST.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING LATE AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A
COOUPLE OF DEGS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
KEPT LIKELY /60%/ POPS ALL ZONES AFTN INTO EVENING. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTN IS WHETHER THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING
IN FROM W WILL LIMIT TEMPS AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MESO MODELS HINT THAT IT WILL WITH BEST SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE 6-10 PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 85 MOST LAND AREAS
WITH LOWER 80S COAST.

MODIFIED 12Z KMHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE WET
MICROBURSTS BUT ALWAYS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH WEAK
FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. WINDS
AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT SEAS NEAR 6 FT DIAMOND
BUOY. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT SW WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN FOR SRN
AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO NW AND MOVING
E...THUS KEPT SCA IN PLACE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/

AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/JBM/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 031043
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 031043
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THEN DURING DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS
INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2" AND
TRAINING CELLS POSSIBLE PER FORECAST MBE VECTORS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER 16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS THEN LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BEST TIME FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH WEAK MID LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...INTERESTING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
WILL BE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL
OCCUR. THE LATEST WRF-NMM RUN IS INDICATING A STRONG CONVECTIVE
WIND SIGNATURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BOWING MCS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN NC TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING AOA 2". WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AFTER
16Z. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO START THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS BY MID WEEK.

INDEPENDENCE DAY...AN EXITING SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL BRING DRYING WESTERLY 850MB FLOW TO E NC. MAIN CHANGE
FOR SAT IS TO DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLGT CHANCE RANGE...AS
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYING COLUMN WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE PRESENT INSTABILITY. MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON THE INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE DECREASED
POP TREND...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN RESPONSE. MOST
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FAIRLY TOLERABLE. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY FOR EVENING FESTIVITIES SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SAGS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE NC
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SRLY 850MB FLOW
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO NEXT FCST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IF SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING NECESSARY DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SFC FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALS WITH
STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON AREA FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
BRING AN ISO TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORGANIZE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
HELD INTO THE 80S WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO VA. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SO
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE
ADVERTISED 40-50 POPS. CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME EXPECTED AS
SOUTHASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE CONUS. TYPICAL
ISO TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 90S WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RETURNING GUSTY AT TIMES BY
MIDWEEK. SAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. MORE WIDELY SCT TO ISO STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FG/BR EACH AND EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED AS THE WEAK
HAS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH
TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW BECOMING REESTABLISHED AND SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KT. THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY
HEADLINES AS SEAS CONTINUE AOA 6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
WINDS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST
ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 - 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS GETTING HANDLE ON
POPS/WX IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MAINLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NC. WHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING, NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM INDICATE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY EAST
AND EXTEND THROUGH 12Z. WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO THROUGH FRIDAY. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES. STRONG
SW WINDS TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR TWEAKS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/BTC/CTC/HSA/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030458
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS GETTING HANDLE ON
POPS/WX IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MAINLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NC. WHILE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH IS
SLOWLY DISSIPATING, NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM INDICATE THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY EAST
AND EXTEND THROUGH 12Z. WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO THROUGH FRIDAY. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG/CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. TRYING TO DISCERN TIMES WITH BEST
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIFFICULT AS A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL PERTUBATIONS TRAVERSING THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
EPISODIC SUB VFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES. STRONG
SW WINDS TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF OREGON INLET INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. MINOR TWEAKS TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AND 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/BTC/CTC/HSA/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 030242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL
CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HWY 70
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MUGGY LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25-30 AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA/BM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 030242
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH.
TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL
CONTINUING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HWY 70
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MUGGY LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
25-30 AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 5 TO 7 FEET
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA/BM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 022307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUND COUNTIES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL CONTINUING LIKELY POPS INLAND BUT
DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MUGGY LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS...EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
ADVISORIES WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO
29 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND 26 KNOTS AT OREGON INLET. OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA...EXPECT 10-20 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/CTC/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING THRU THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BUT
MODEST SHEAR AND CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS VIA WET MICROBURST WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT, BUT SOME LARGER HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTORMS
MAY LINGER THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. MUGGY
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER PAMLICO SOUND. FARTHER
NORTH AND FOR INLAND RIVERS, THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL
SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 021920
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS TO THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LINGER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDING THRU THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BUT
MODEST SHEAR AND CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS VIA WET MICROBURST WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT, BUT SOME LARGER HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A FEW TSTORMS
MAY LINGER THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. MUGGY
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS LAGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FAVORED AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
DOWN INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 2.25
INCHES WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING OF CELLS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...TROUGHING THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR NC/VA
BORDER INTO MONDAY...AFTER WHICH IT GETS PICKED UP AND LIFTED
NORTHEAST BY SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALCHIANS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ACT ON THE
WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THRU MID AFTERNOON, THEN
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE BROAD EASTERN US
TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER. CUD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY...AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND OVER PAMLICO SOUND. FARTHER
NORTH AND FOR INLAND RIVERS, THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL
SUPPORT 10-20 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THU...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN
LOOSENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FORECAST ON THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET THROUGHOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA





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