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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL
BAND OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE
COD. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S (WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS) AND
LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 280316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL
BAND OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE
COD. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S (WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS) AND
LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 280316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL
BAND OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE
COD. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S (WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS) AND
LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 280316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1016 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL
BAND OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE
COD. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S (WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS) AND
LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 272328
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL BAND
OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD.
LOCAL RADAR MAY HAVE DETECTED A FEW REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN BEAUFORT COUNTY AND A FEW OVER SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND/CORE BANKS BUT MOST OF THOSE RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 6 PM.

IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
WED MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INOT THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND/ALLIGATOR
RIVER EXPIRE AT 7 PM. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND
ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JAC/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 272328
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NNW IN A RESIDUAL BAND
OF MOISTURE ROTATING ABOUT STACKED LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD.
LOCAL RADAR MAY HAVE DETECTED A FEW REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN BEAUFORT COUNTY AND A FEW OVER SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND/CORE BANKS BUT MOST OF THOSE RETURNS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS OF 6 PM.

IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
WED MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INOT THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STACKED LOW. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER/MID 30S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGH MVFR CEILING AT EWN OR
OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUD BANDS ROTATE THRU EASTERN NC
BUT SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE. CLEARING
SKIES SHUD OVERTAKE ALL TAF LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 18 KTS AT TIMES AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND/ALLIGATOR
RIVER EXPIRE AT 7 PM. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND
ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

NW WINDS 10-20 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED AROUND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/JAC/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT
LOWER 30S COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS
UP TO 20 KT CONT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABT 21Z THEN CIGS LIFT
TO VFR LEVELS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS CONT ON WED BUT
ANTICIPATE GUSTY N WINDS 15-20 KT AFTER ABT 14Z WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
N-NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO 12 FT SEAS SUBSIDE TO 7 TO
10 FT LATER THIS AFTN THEN TO 6 TO 9 FT TONIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH
AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW
SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED WED HIGHEST NRN
AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE
AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANTICIPATE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT
LOWER 30S COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY..HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON WED WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...HIGHEST OBX. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATE HIGHS
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ACRS NERN
AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1237 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE EAST COAST. CAA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY SUNRISE AS NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
PLAINS STATES AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S. MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SATURDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFSENS APPEARS TOO FAST AS IT APPEARS TO OUTRUN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. SLOWER MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING SO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING COLUMN REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING SO PTYPE SHOULDNT BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS
UP TO 20 KT CONT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABT 21Z THEN CIGS LIFT
TO VFR LEVELS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDS CONT ON WED BUT
ANTICIPATE GUSTY N WINDS 15-20 KT AFTER ABT 14Z WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1243 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF SUB
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO MOST OF SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
N-NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO 12 FT SEAS SUBSIDE TO 7 TO
10 FT LATER THIS AFTN THEN TO 6 TO 9 FT TONIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS THE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH
AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW
SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED WED HIGHEST NRN
AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE
AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUE...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE EAST COAST. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/JAC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE NO
PRECIP IN THE AFTN UPDATE. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS UP
TO 20 KT CONT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABT 20Z. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREAS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO 12 FT
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 10 FT THIS AFTN THEN TO 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/JME/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE NO
PRECIP IN THE AFTN UPDATE. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY N-NW WINDS UP
TO 20 KT CONT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABT 20Z. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREAS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO 12 FT
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 10 FT THIS AFTN THEN TO 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/JME/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. LOW PRES WELL NE OF THE
AREA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY
ACRS N AND NE AREAS IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HAVE RECEIVED
SOME REPORTS EARLIER OF A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY NRN AREAS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...AND
REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE OBX. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE GROUND
IS WARM AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THUS
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS FROM THIS
WINTRY MIX.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL HELP TO HOLD MAX
TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS
AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREAS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO
11 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT THIS AFTN
AND 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/JME/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271503
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. LOW PRES WELL NE OF THE
AREA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY
ACRS N AND NE AREAS IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HAVE RECEIVED
SOME REPORTS EARLIER OF A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY NRN AREAS
OF THE COASTAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...AND
REPORTS OF SNOW ALONG THE OBX. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE GROUND
IS WARM AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THUS
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS FROM THIS
WINTRY MIX.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL HELP TO HOLD MAX
TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS
AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. SCA CONTS FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREAS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 8 TO
11 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT THIS AFTN
AND 6 TO 8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/JME/CQD
MARINE...JAC/JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 271135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. LIGHT RAIN WAS CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST SPOTS THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW
WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD DEPOSIT A TRACE AMOUNT ON GRASSY
SURFACES MAINLY VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED ICY PATCH ON ELEVATED
SURFACES BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS OCCURRING AND MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KPGV AND KEWN TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE TODAY AND 6 TO
8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 271135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. LIGHT RAIN WAS CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST SPOTS THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW
WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD DEPOSIT A TRACE AMOUNT ON GRASSY
SURFACES MAINLY VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED ICY PATCH ON ELEVATED
SURFACES BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS OCCURRING AND MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KPGV AND KEWN TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE TODAY AND 6 TO
8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270824
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE MORE CONCENTRATED LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF VIRGINIA INTO
NORTHEAST NC. AS THE DEPTH OF COLD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
EASTERN NC THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND COULD BRIEFLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE GROUND IS WARM AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY. IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WERE TO
DEVELOP IT COULD DEPOSIT A TRACE AMOUNT ON GRASSY SURFACES MAINLY
VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.

EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE TODAY AND 6 TO
8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270824
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE MORE CONCENTRATED LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF VIRGINIA INTO
NORTHEAST NC. AS THE DEPTH OF COLD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
EASTERN NC THE RAIN HAS BEGUN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND COULD BRIEFLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE GROUND IS WARM AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY. IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WERE TO
DEVELOP IT COULD DEPOSIT A TRACE AMOUNT ON GRASSY SURFACES MAINLY
VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.

EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE TODAY AND 6 TO
8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270539
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE TONIGHT. EASTERN NC WAS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
RADAR INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. THINK
THIS PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO EASTERN NC BY 08Z INITIALLY AS
LIGHT RAIN THEN CHANGING TO VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. COMBINATION OF WARM GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PRECLUDE ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH AT WORST A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.



LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 6 TO 8 FT AS EXPECTED AND WILL BUILD FURTHER TO 8 TO 10
FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270539
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1239 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OFF OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE TONIGHT. EASTERN NC WAS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WITH COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE REGION.
RADAR INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. THINK
THIS PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO EASTERN NC BY 08Z INITIALLY AS
LIGHT RAIN THEN CHANGING TO VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW SOUTH. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. COMBINATION OF WARM GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WILL PRECLUDE ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH AT WORST A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.



LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPGV WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT PREVAIL OVER THE NC COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 6 TO 8 FT AS EXPECTED AND WILL BUILD FURTHER TO 8 TO 10
FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 270313
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE DELMARVA/HAMPTON ROADS REGION
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND TOWARD MORNING PER THE LATEST
3KM HRRR. COLD AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY ARRIVE IN EASTERN NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH
AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA PER THE HRRR MODEL. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN...BECOMING MIXED
WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KNOTS AT DUCK COE PIER AND 25
KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS HAVE FINALLY RESPONDED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH 5 TO 7 FEET AT THE NORTHERN BUOYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED EARLIER FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 270313
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1013 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE DELMARVA/HAMPTON ROADS REGION
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND TOWARD MORNING PER THE LATEST
3KM HRRR. COLD AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY ARRIVE IN EASTERN NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH
AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA PER THE HRRR MODEL. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN...BECOMING MIXED
WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KNOTS AT DUCK COE PIER AND 25
KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS HAVE FINALLY RESPONDED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH 5 TO 7 FEET AT THE NORTHERN BUOYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED EARLIER FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 262329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
629 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM MONDAY...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
COVERAGE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
INTO EASTERN NC. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE
COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS
WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND
IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAISING OF POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM
DIVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN...BECOMING MIXED
WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AT DUCK PIER WITH 22 TO 26
KNOTS...BUT WINDS ELSEWHERE STILL MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS OVER PROTECTED AREAS. SEAS ARE BEING SLOWER TO RESPOND
AND ARE GENERALLY AT 2 TO 4 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED EARLIER FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND
THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER
TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THIS
EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 262117
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...SK/CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 262117
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
417 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU.

GAINING A LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AND NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH MODELS PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT QPF THURS NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850
MB. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 40-45
BEFORE THE STRONG CAA COMMENCES BUT ONLY EXPECT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED MUCH WETTER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SFC PATTERN...SPECIFICALLY
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS OF PTYPE CONCERNS
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE BUT AT THIS TIME
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NC (12Z ECMWF) OR
NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC (12Z GFS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THURS
NIGHT BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND VFR
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND/OR A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW
THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG CAA DEVELOPING FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO
4-8 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...SK/CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/SK/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 262040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING
THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHTOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS
THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC/CQD
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 262040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COOLING AND MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD FORECAST MENTION ATTM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT
AND WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WED AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR
THU. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING
THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHTOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS/THE SOUNDS/AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF OF THE NC COAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS
30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS
THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC/CQD
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
123 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC. NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER COOLING AND
MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD
FORECAST MENTION ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LEVELLING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA ONSET LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z MODEL CONFIRMS
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING, SO NO CHANGES TO THE BASIC SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER
1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHTOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261823
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
123 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NC. NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER COOLING AND
MODEST SFC HEATING THIS AFTN BUT THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD
FORECAST MENTION ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LEVELLING OFF IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA ONSET LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z MODEL CONFIRMS
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING, SO NO CHANGES TO THE BASIC SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST.
THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER
1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TODAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO START EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS LATE
TONIGHT...THE LIGHT SHOWERS...IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW...AROUND 9Z... MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. NW WINDS
10-15 KNOTS GUSTY UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHTOUT THE TOMORROW AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
FARTHER NE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING COINCIDENT TO AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY PER THE 12Z KMHX SOUNDING AND MOST OF
THE REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ARE VIRGA BUT KNCA REPORTED A TRACE AND
WE GOT A TRACE AT THE NWS OFFICE IN NEWPORT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND NASH COUNTIES THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...WHICH COULD SKIRT FAR
NORTHERN PITT AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
HERE AND ADDED THUNDER JUST FOR THIS AREA. DON`T EXPECT MORE
THAN A TRACE TO 0.02" ANYWHERE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO CAPTURE T/TD TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL A COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS
AS MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT REGARDLESS OF
WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THINK
BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30% POP AS MODEL
QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT
AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL MARVA.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...SK/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 261517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING COINCIDENT TO AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY PER THE 12Z KMHX SOUNDING AND MOST OF
THE REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES ARE VIRGA BUT KNCA REPORTED A TRACE AND
WE GOT A TRACE AT THE NWS OFFICE IN NEWPORT...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND OBX SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND NASH COUNTIES THAT
IS PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...WHICH COULD SKIRT FAR
NORTHERN PITT AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES SO HAVE INCREASED POPS
HERE AND ADDED THUNDER JUST FOR THIS AREA. DON`T EXPECT MORE
THAN A TRACE TO 0.02" ANYWHERE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO CAPTURE T/TD TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL A COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS
AS MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT REGARDLESS OF
WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THINK
BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30% POP AS MODEL
QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT
AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL MARVA.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...SK/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STILL A
COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER TYPE "B"
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REGARDLESS OF WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30%
POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT
AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL MARVA.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 261115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. STILL A
COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER TYPE "B"
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD
STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REGARDLESS OF WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INDICATE JUST A 30%
POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LIGHT. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING
LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT
AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL MARVA.
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260851
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER
TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INLAND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT REGARDLESS OF IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS
TO INDICATE JUST A 30% POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE VERY LIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL
MARVA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260851
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST. THE
OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 36 HOURS AS MILLER
TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF OF THE NC COAST LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INLAND LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT REGARDLESS OF IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. THINK BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS
TO INDICATE JUST A 30% POP AS MODEL QPF FORECASTS ARE VERY LIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT
BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH QPF PLACEMENT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.25" INDICATED. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES/ELEVATED ROADWAYS. MAY
NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIMITED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER
WX. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE
MORNING AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE
AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.

MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED AND WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THUR AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THU. CONFIDENCE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS
AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHANCE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SE COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS ABOUT
18-24 HOURS FASTER THAN ECMWF MOVING THE LOW ALONG THE NC COAST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY
40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL
MARVA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE PERIOD
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING
PRED VFR BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS/THE SOUNDS/ AND THE ALLIGATOR RIVER. A
BRIEF PERIOD MARGINAL GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILLER TYPE "B" CYCLOGENESIS OFF
OF THE NC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW NORTH OF OCRACOKE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WHILE SOUTH OF THERE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS EVENING THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST LEADING TO
BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUE. NNW WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW
DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND
LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS.
ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED TUE AND WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260610
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY WAS OVER EASTERN
NC WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH HALF AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH HALF OF
THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL
MARVA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
HATTERAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2 TO 4
FOOT WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE
LATE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260610
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
COAST. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM FRONT LIKE BOUNDARY WAS OVER EASTERN
NC WITH EASTERLY FLOW NORTH HALF AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH HALF OF
THE AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING INLAND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE COAST. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OF OF THE DEL
MARVA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH BEST THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM MONDAY...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH OF
HATTERAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2 TO 4
FOOT WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE
LATE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 260237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA BUT
DECK OF EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM SUNDAY...MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE IS TO INITIATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS START MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. THAT`S BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIOD
SWELLS. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK







000
FXUS62 KMHX 260237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA BUT
DECK OF EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF
A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM SUNDAY...MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE IS TO INITIATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS START MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT. THAT`S BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIOD
SWELLS. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 252312
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
612 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...RIDGE OFFSHORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING BUT MAY LEVEL OFF LATE AS
THE CLOUDS INCREASE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S
COAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN`T`T DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS POTENT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 610 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SE/S WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
ABOUT A 10-11 SECOND ROLLING SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
W/NW AND INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 252122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN`T DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND
INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 252122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
422 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA BORDER
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OFF
CAPE COD TUESDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NC...SHOWERS CHANCES CONTINUE
MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUES. HAVE
CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE EARLY MON EVENING...THEN MAINLY NE SECTIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUES AS THE PARENT LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFT NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS CHARTS
INDICATING PRECIP REMAINING LIQUID THROUGH THE EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MAINLY SNOW
THROUGH TUES MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUES AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40. TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT STEADILY FALLS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS CAA PERSISTS...FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY
TUES. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUES MORNING AND ONLY
WARMING TO AROUND 40-45 TUES AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE LONGEST...BUT WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION.

MOISTURE PULLS OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TUES NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WED
AROUND 40-45 WITH ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES WARMING FOR THURS.

CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE WITH A COUPLE LATE PERIOD NRN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TAPS MORE GULF MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WETTER ACROSS EASTERN NC. KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM THAT
MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUN. THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND POSSIBLY PRECIP IMPACTING COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN`T DEVELOP A LOW OFFSHORE WITH A
DRY CLIPPER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN. TEMPS FOR THE LONG TERM EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 40S FOR HIGH...EXCEPT FRI WHEN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND
INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW PRES CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST. THE SFC LOW
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON
EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND
NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COULD RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE
OUTER BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251943
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
243 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER
TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT
RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND
INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT
GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251943
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
243 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER
TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT
RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND
INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT
GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251811
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE NNE
CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTEROON WITH LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH
SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN
TIER. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251811
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE NNE
CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTEROON WITH LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4
FT. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH
SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN
TIER. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251520
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPR TRF AND SFC LOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE NNE
CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTEROON WITH LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPING.
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BUT STILL 6 FT AT DIAMOND SHOALS AT 10 AM
SO WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN TIER. SEAS WILL BE
MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251146
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TODAY. ATMS
IS QUITE DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES
INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPR TRF AND SFC LOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...WINDS STILL GUSTY OVER CENTRAL WATERS BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING AND THINK
NOW MAINLY BELOW 6 FT NRN AND SRN WTRS AND WILL DROP SCA FOR THESE
AREAS WITH UPDATE.

PREV DISC...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE
NNE CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS WEAK SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE S WILL SEE CURRENT WNW THAT ARE GUSTY OVER CNTRL WTRS GRAD
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT SW THIS ATFN. SEAS WILL CONT TO SUBSIDE
WITH SCA ENDING EARLY THIS MORN SRN WTRS...MID MORN NRN WTRS AND
BY EARLY AFTN CNTRL WTRS. BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH SFC
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN TIER.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 251146
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PASS S OF THE REGION TODAY. ATMS
IS QUITE DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LVL THICKNESSES
INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND EXPECT HIGHS
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPR TRF AND SFC LOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUN...WINDS STILL GUSTY OVER CENTRAL WATERS BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ELSEWHERE. SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING AND THINK
NOW MAINLY BELOW 6 FT NRN AND SRN WTRS AND WILL DROP SCA FOR THESE
AREAS WITH UPDATE.

PREV DISC...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE
NNE CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS WEAK SFC HIGH PASSES TO
THE S WILL SEE CURRENT WNW THAT ARE GUSTY OVER CNTRL WTRS GRAD
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT SW THIS ATFN. SEAS WILL CONT TO SUBSIDE
WITH SCA ENDING EARLY THIS MORN SRN WTRS...MID MORN NRN WTRS AND
BY EARLY AFTN CNTRL WTRS. BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH SFC
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN TIER.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 250820
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST
MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PASS S OF THE REGION
TODAY. ATMS IS QUITE DRY AND EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LVL
THICKNESSES INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NE TO UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...UPR TRF AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W TONIGHT. APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA WITH
POSS SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CSTL WTRS LATE. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPR 30S INLAND AND UPR 30S/LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MON...THEN RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A CLASSIC MILLER
B TYPE SFC PATTERN. SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE MON...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND SFC LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS AT CHANCE. THERMO PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL
THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR
AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPR TRF AND SFC LOW. DESPITE CLR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD WILL REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM DEVELOPING...CANT RULE IT OUT BUT
TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO FCST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OUT THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A POTENT
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W AND SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NC COAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AS DEEP LOW WELL TO
THE NNE CONTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS WEAK SFC HIGH
PASSES TO THE S WILL SEE CURRENT WNW THAT ARE GUSTY OVER CNTRL
WTRS GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT SW THIS ATFN. SEAS WILL CONT
TO SUBSIDE WITH SCA ENDING EARLY THIS MORN SRN WTRS...MID MORN NRN
WTRS AND BY EARLY AFTN CNTRL WTRS. BY LATE TODAY SEAS WILL BE 2 TO
4 FT. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT REMAINS LOOSE WITH
SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN
TIER. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD/BTC
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 250521
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO BEGIN
DROPPING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. CAA CONTINUES BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH COULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT
WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTH LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND
1320-1330M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT TROF DIVES SE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENN
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT CLASSIC MILLER B TYPE SFC
PATTERN AS ASSOCD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT APPROACHES THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN REFORMS OFF THE NC COAST ON MONDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
COAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP
COVERAGE SO KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. THERMO
PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY
AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT, INDICATE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND CUD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR OCCURRENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION, BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL COMES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF HEADS THRU
THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT MOST FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL AGAIN ENSUE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. DESPITE CLR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND TONIGHT APPEARS TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD WILL
REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR INTERVALS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...W WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER CNTRL WTRS HOWEVER
GRDNT SHLD RELAX THRU DAYBREAK AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE N MOVES
FURTHER AWAY AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. FCST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WNW WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND HAVE FALLEN TO 10-20 KT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CAA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WEST WINDS START OUT AROUND 10-20 KT
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 10 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW 6 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. NWPS IS
SLOWER TO BRING SEAS DOWN AND WILL USE A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III
AND NWPS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND THE ENSUING COLD
AIR SURGE WILL BUMP UP WINDS INTO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO
6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...RF/SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...RF/BTC/SK/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 250521
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1221 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO BEGIN
DROPPING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. CAA CONTINUES BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH COULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT
WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTH LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND
1320-1330M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT TROF DIVES SE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENN
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT CLASSIC MILLER B TYPE SFC
PATTERN AS ASSOCD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT APPROACHES THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN REFORMS OFF THE NC COAST ON MONDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
COAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP
COVERAGE SO KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. THERMO
PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY
AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT, INDICATE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND CUD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR OCCURRENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION, BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL COMES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF HEADS THRU
THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT MOST FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL AGAIN ENSUE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY CLR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. DESPITE CLR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND TONIGHT APPEARS TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD WILL
REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR INTERVALS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1215 AM SUN...W WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVER CNTRL WTRS HOWEVER
GRDNT SHLD RELAX THRU DAYBREAK AS DEEP LOW WELL TO THE N MOVES
FURTHER AWAY AND WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. FCST LOOKS GOOD
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WNW WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND HAVE FALLEN TO 10-20 KT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CAA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WEST WINDS START OUT AROUND 10-20 KT
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 10 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW 6 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. NWPS IS
SLOWER TO BRING SEAS DOWN AND WILL USE A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III
AND NWPS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND THE ENSUING COLD
AIR SURGE WILL BUMP UP WINDS INTO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO
6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...RF/SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...RF/BTC/SK/DAG








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