000
FXUS62 KMHX 251026
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL OPAQUE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE AND DISRUPTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRYNESS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 250658
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST TODAY THE RESULTING HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY
START WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN A WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20
TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN
WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 250424
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1224 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ABOUT
TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RISING HEIGHT FIELD TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NC.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CIRCULATE A COLD AND VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AIDING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO RECORD/NEAR RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD
LOW FOR 5/25 IS 46 IN 1967)...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN A WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25
KT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 4-6 FT SEAS TONIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT EARLY
SATURDAY SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
135-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/CQD/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 250205
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IMPACTED THE
REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING SUBSIDENCE AND CAA. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AND WILL LIKELY MODERATE AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFFSHORE AND ERODE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT STAYING A BIT ELEVATED
WITH A PRETTY DECENT GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...POSSIBLY DROPPING AT OR BELOW PREVIOUS
RECORDS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD LOW FOR 5/25 IS
46 IN 1967)...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. NW WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20 KT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY BUT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...4-6FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND 5-6FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...WITH 7FT SETS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-
FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN WATERS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N SAT AFTN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 242305
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS NOW
DROPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE OUTER BANKS BUT SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL BE
DISSIPATING THRU THE EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND (KEWN RECORD LOW FOR 5/25
IS 46 IN 1967)...WITH LOW 50S NEARER THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WTIH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THEREAFTER. NW WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20 KT AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY BUT THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N SAT
AFTN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/CQD
MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 242004
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE PUSHING ACROSS AREA
WITH TEMPS INTO MID 50S NRN OBX. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NE
1/3 OF AREA...THEN CLEARING EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHRT
WV PASSAGE. MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS INLAND (KEWN
RECORD LOW FOR 5/25 IS 46 IN 1967) OF MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WTIH HIGH
PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM NW. LEANED TO WARMER MOS GDNC FOR
MAX TEMPS WITH GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS...MID 70S
INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WITH POST-FRONAL CAA SURGE WILL
PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER NRN
WATERS INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PKG WAS TO ISSUE
SCA FOR SRN WATERS AS WELL...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND SEAS TO
6 FT OUTER PORTIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S
TO N SAT AFTN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 241846
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE 1/3 OF AREA.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
BEAUTIFUL WX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MON WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NC MON NIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE NORTHERN CWA BASED ON AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/ECMWF. S/SWLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TUE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY TRIGGERED BY SEABREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. BY THU/FRI EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S
TO 90 DEGREES INLAND. DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED THROUGH FRI...THOUGH OVERALL THINK RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE FEATURE...RESULTING IN LIGHT BACKING WINDS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON
NIGHT...AND S/SELY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WATERS TUE AND WED...RESULTING IN
S/SWLY FLOW AOB 15KT WITH SEAS 2-4FT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/JME/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 241746
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE 1/3 OF AREA.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AREA BUT STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CU/SCU AND SCT SHWRS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF SHRT WV
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED REST OF FCST PERIOD. NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
POST-FRONT CAA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM
000
FXUS62 KMHX 241514
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1112 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING
UPDATE. COLD FRONT BNDRY ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH STRONG SHRT WV PRODUCING POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND
SCT SHOWERS OVER FCST AREA. FCST ON TRACK WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER
NE 1/3 OF AREA. TEMPS WILL RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGS OVER CURRENT
READINGS...BUT CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN MID 70S.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AN EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY
THEN PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT LULL IN WINDS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH POST-FRONTAL NW CAA SURGE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE AFTN.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA/JBM
000
FXUS62 KMHX 241040
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...AT 10Z THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NC AND MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST AROUND 15Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AN EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 13Z.
EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS TODAY
THEN PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS A LITTLE EARLY AS WINDS AND SEAS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 240723
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OUT COMPLETELY EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE AS FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN NC AND THE AIRMASS
BECOMES DESTABILIZED DUE TO HEATING SO WILL CONTINUE 30-40% POPS.
THINK THE SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CIRCULATE A VERY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BEACHES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12/23 ECMWF AND THE 24/00Z GFS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IN STORE AS WELL
THROUGH MONDAY. LEESIDE SURFACE TROF SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. EARLY THIS MORNING
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AIDED BY WIDESPREAD
MOIST SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINS. EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN
THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS FRIDAY THEN PREVAILING VFR LATE FRIDAY AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...VFR. DRY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL 21Z SATURDAY. ALSO WILL
ISSUE A NEW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS MAINLY FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
25 KT FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 12Z THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND
SEAS LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AND
15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE
THIS MORNING BUT THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS BACK TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUND WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. USED A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS WILL END SATURDAY
AS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 240510
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
AERIAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 30% POPS AND CALL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT DOWNPLAY THUNDER THREAT BASED ON
DOWNWARD TRENDS IN OBSERVED LIGHTNING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NC BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LEAD TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AIDED BY MOIST SOILS FROM EARLIER
RAINS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 60S MOST
LOCATIONS AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS WE APPROACH MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
OUR DOOR STEP .
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD FRIDAY...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING
IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH A PERSISTENT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH LOW HUMIDITY THRU SUNDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BROAD EAST COAST TROF WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY MON AFTN.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND REPLACES THE EAST COAST TROF
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TUE-THU...EXPECT MAINLY SEABREEZE TYPE
CONVECTION TO SET UP DURING THE FAVORABLE MID AFTN THRU EARLY EVE
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY TRIGGERED BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. ANY SHOWER WILL
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. EARLY THIS MORNING
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AIDED BY WIDESPREAD
MOIST SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINS. EXPECT LONG PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN
THE INFREQUENT SHOWERS FRIDAY THEN PREVAILING VFR LATE FRIDAY AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF OF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SCTD MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND SHORT-DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASING BY MON AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS HAVE BUILT TO 5-6
FT IN SOUTHWESTERLY PREFRONTAL FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF OF THE COAST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE 4-6 FT SEAS. MAY HAVE TO
REISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...A MODERATE TO
STRONG NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
S/SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE/SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/CQD/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/CQD/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 240207
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM THURSDAY...THE PREVIOUS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRAMATICALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS A VORT MAX HAS OUTRUN THE EXISTING DYNAMIC
SFC FORCING. THEREFORE...HAVE LINGERING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANTICIPATE
ONLY A SCHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THE
PIEDMONT IS OBSERVING A DISTINCT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FEEL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL LIMITED AS
THE LIFT/FGEN STARTS TO SUBSIDE LEADING TO A SCHC TO CHC
OVERNIGHT. LOWS DROPPED QUICKLY AS THE RAIN MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS EVENING BUT TEMPS HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL
IN PLACE. FEEL LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MODERATE LIFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS WE
APPROACH MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON OUR DOOR STEP .
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD FRIDAY...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING
IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH A PERSISTENT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH LOW HUMIDITY THRU SUNDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BROAD EAST COAST TROF WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY MON AFTN.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND REPLACES THE EAST COAST TROF
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TUE-THU...EXPECT MAINLY SEABREEZE TYPE
CONVECTION TO SET UP DURING THE FAVORABLE MID AFTN THRU EARLY EVE
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM THU...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL FOUR
SITES GETTING SOME RAINFALL...AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING
STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WITH GUSTS TO
20KT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SCTD MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND SHORT-DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASING BY MON AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH SWLY WINDS
AROUND 15-20KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3
TO 5FT WITH OUTER WATERS POSSIBLY OBSERVING 6FT SETS. SCA HAS BEEN
DROPPED FOR THE PAMLICO AS WINDS GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25KTS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...STILL THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS
TO BUILD TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE AND NORTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING 6FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRI...WITH SWLY WINDS
EARLY BECOMING NW 10-15KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW WINDS
15-25KT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH CAA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...A MODERATE TO
STRONG NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
S/SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE/SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/BTC/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 232230
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
630 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE MORPHED INTO A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF GREENVILLE DOWN INTO DUPLIN COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THESE TSTMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND AN OCCASIONAL WIND
GUST INTO THE 30S...BUT HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. THINK THESE
TSTMS WILL FOLLOW THE PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND START
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
LIKELY TO NOT ARRIVE IN OUR REGION UNTIL MUCH LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
GRADUALLY TRENDING POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN AREAS WHERE SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS FALLEN AS KPGV IS DOWN TO 64 DEGREES
AND KDPL AT 67. LOW TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD FRIDAY...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING
IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH A PERSISTENT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH LOW HUMIDITY THRU SUNDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BROAD EAST COAST TROF WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY MON AFTN.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND REPLACES THE EAST COAST TROF
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TUE-THU...EXPECT MAINLY SEABREEZE TYPE
CONVECTION TO SET UP DURING THE FAVORABLE MID AFTN THRU EARLY EVE
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM THU...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL FOUR
SITES GETTING SOME RAINFALL...AGREE WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING
STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WITH GUSTS TO
20KT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SCTD MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND SHORT-DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASING BY MON AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AT THE MOMENT WITH GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS
TO BUILD TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE AND NORTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING 6FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRI...WITH SWLY WINDS
EARLY BECOMING NW 10-15KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW WINDS
15-25KT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH CAA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...A MODERATE TO
STRONG NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
S/SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE/SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/BTC/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231927
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD TONIGHT...INTO EASTERN NC BY EARLY FRI AM. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE OUTER
BANKS...WITH LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION W OF THE CWA APPROACHING
THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS W OF HWY 17 AND ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO CHANCE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL THINK MAIN THREATS WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AT THIS TIME THINK SVR
THREAT IS LOW THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY W OF HWY 17 WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD FRIDAY...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING
IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH A PERSISTENT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL WITH LOW HUMIDITY THRU SUNDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE BROAD EAST COAST TROF WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY MON AFTN.
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND REPLACES THE EAST COAST TROF
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. AS TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS TUE-THU...EXPECT MAINLY SEABREEZE TYPE
CONVECTION TO SET UP DURING THE FAVORABLE MID AFTN THRU EARLY EVE
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS TIME. SCT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR SCTD MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND SHORT-DURATION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASING BY MON AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RESULTING
IN INCREASING SLY WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGHEST OVER
THE CENTRAL WATERS. SCA CONTINUES FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND
NORTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING 6FT
SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRI...WITH SWLY WINDS EARLY BECOMING NW 10-15KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NW WINDS 15-25KT BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI EVENING WITH CAA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...A MODERATE TO
STRONG NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
S/SW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS WILL
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE/SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CQD/BTC
MARINE...CQD/BTC
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231701
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
101 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN
SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HIGH RES MODELS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER
EASTERN NC TODAY. STRONG UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90
INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH
LATEST BLENDED TPW OF 1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN
NC. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
LIKELY TODAY. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT.
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL
INSOLATION WILL NOT BE REALIZED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
80S INLAND TO 70S OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS TIME. SCT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. SCT SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW 10-20 KT...AND SEAS 3-6 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO
ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS SW BY SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE
LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S
WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-7 FT...WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...HSA/CQD/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231426
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN
SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
AM UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR AND HIGH RES MODELS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS BECOMING MORE INLAND. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. STRONG
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH LATEST BLENDED TPW OF
1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH PWATS NEAR 2
SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. WITH
CLOUDS IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL INSOLATION WILL NOT BE REALIZED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S OBX AND
CRYSTAL COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...MIX OF IFR ACROSS PGV/ISO TO VFR ACROSS
EWN/OAJ WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHOWERS
BLOOM ACROSS EASTERN NC TERMINALS. MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING SW.
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THU...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT...AND SEAS 3-5 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT...WITH 10-20 KNOTS FOR THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS. ONLY
CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO ISSUE SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS
SW BY SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD
FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED
ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES
NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS
BUILD 6-7 FT...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS
INTO FRI.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/CQD/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 231121
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THEN
SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 705 AM THURS...CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN NC
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER LIGHTNING REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N/NE OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. STRONG UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH LATEST BLENDED TPW OF
1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH PWATS NEAR 2
SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY. WITH CLOUDS
IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL INSOLATION WILL NOT BE REALIZED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S OBX AND CRYSTAL
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER
SUPPORT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...MIX OF IFR ACROSS PGV/ISO TO VFR ACROSS
EWN/OAJ WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WEAK SHOWERS
BLOOM ACROSS EASTERN NC TERMINALS. MVFR AND INTERMITTENT IFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING SW.
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN MIXED TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW 13-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS 3-4 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS TO 4-5 FT SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 15-20
KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...WITH
10-15 KNOTS FOR THE SOUNDS AND SOUTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS SW BY
SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD FOR
THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED ON
LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES NOT
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-7
FT...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 230738
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ALONG THE OBX. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE COASTAL
SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM OFF CAPE FEAR MOVING N TOWARD THE COAST. STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MAY...AND MATCHES WELL WITH BLENDED TPW WHICH SUGGESTS PWATS
AROUND 1.80-1.90 INCHES ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH PWATS
NEAR 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY. WARM
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MIXED CLOUDS SO FULL INSOLATION
WILL NOT BE REALIZED...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO 70S
OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE...DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE DIFFICULT HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURS...SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND BECOME ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SE TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS BELOW ROUGHLY 700 MB
AND PWATS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES. BEST MID/UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS POPS/WX TREND OF HIGH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX/SOUTHERN COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH A SLIGHT EDGE GIVEN TO THE GFS WHEN
COMPARED TO HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO
THE NORTH WITH A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AGAIN...WHILE A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION TO SET UP WITH
POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BY 08-09Z...MAINLY IN LOWERED
CEILINGS AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT OAJ/EWN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACTS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...SHOWERS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS 2-3 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. AN 0230Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM BIG
ROCK NE TO OFF RODANTHE. FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
10-20 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 10-15
KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT AND ACT TO VEER WINDS SW BY SUNRISE FRI. 00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATED SLIGHTLY LESS WIND FIELD FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND HAVE
LOWERED WINDS A FEW KNOTS BUT BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III AND
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SHORT TERM. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS S
WINDS GUST NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD 6-7 FT...WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO FRI.
LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MON/
AS OF 315 AM THU...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL VEER TO
NORTH NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SMALL CRAFT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE DUE TO THE BACKSWELL FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/DAG
MARINE...HSA/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 230509
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /EARLY THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM THURS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST AND ALONG THE OBX. THE 4 KM WRF MODELS AS WELL
AS THE NAM/RUC INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AFTER 08Z OR SO. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OFF CAPE FEAR MOVING NORTH
TOWARD THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO
1.90 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAY...AND MATCHES WELL
WITH BLENDED TPW WHICH SUGGESTS PWATS AROUND 1.80-1.90 INCHES
ADVECTING N ACROSS EASTERN NC. DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BY 08-09Z...MAINLY IN LOWERED
CEILINGS AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE TERMINALS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CONVECTION OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT OAJ/EWN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACTS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS 2-3 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS TO 3-5 FT SOUTH. AN 0230Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM BIG
ROCK NE TO OFF RODANTHE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. NO MAJOR TWEAKS AT THIS TIME BUT A PEAK AT
THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT WIND FORECAST MAY BE OVERDONE BY
2-4 KT TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO DELAYING INCREASED SEAS A FEW
HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SEAS BUILD TO
6-7 FEET DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY RAMPS UP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT
AND SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING
NORTH. VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...CQD/DAG
MARINE...CQD/DAG/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 230155
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER ONCE AGAIN DIED WITH LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT. A NUMBER OF BOTH THE 4 KM WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH
INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS TOWARD MORNING AND PREVIOUS FORECAST
RAMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AFTER 08Z OR SO...WHICH STILL LOOKS FINE
AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE COAST. DUE TO
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...INLAND CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OF TWO AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL
THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
TAKES SHAPE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE 2-4
FT OVER ALL WATERS AND SEE NO REASON THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS SEAS
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SWELL
ENERGY RAMPS UP ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT
AND SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING
NORTH. VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...CTC/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/CQD/LEP
MARINE...CTC/CQD/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 222330
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...INLAND CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AND IMPACT THE OBX AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PIVOTING TROUGH APPROACHING THE
CAROLINAS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LOW
STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS MOVING IN ACROSS THE COAST. AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...SO TOO WILL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. FEEL THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FILL
IN ELSEWHERE AS WE NEAR THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...INLAND CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OF TWO AS THE INVERSION SETS UP. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL
THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
TAKES SHAPE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
REFLECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS ARE 2-4 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS INCREASE AND BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING SEAS TO 6+ FT IN THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TOMORROW SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT AND
SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING NORTH.
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/CQD
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD/LEP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 221906
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING
(LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING AND SHRINKING AREAL COVERAGE) AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE AS DIURNAL HEAT
CYCLE WANES.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST MOVES EAST AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INCREASES AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROF MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT. LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SW LATER TONIGHT WILL
AID AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSTORMS MOVING UP THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A MIXED BNDRY LAYER HOLDS LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 65-70F DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
PRECIP WILL SPREAD UP THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY ASSOCD WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF...THEN CUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PRECIP
AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIFTS INLAND AS FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN GIVEN THE INCREASING
SHEAR/UPPER SUPPORT LATE. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY AS
PRECIP WATER REMAINS ABOVE.
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY SO A SLIGHT
LEAN TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THU NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC FRI...WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HIGHEST ALONG
THE NE CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO NC
FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON
TAPE...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE...YIELDING N/NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW
CLIMO...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION MON AND TUE. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON
THROUGH WED...BETTER CHANCES TUE/WED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY WARM EARLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPS BUILD
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS INVOF SCTD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTORMS. OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INCREASING AHEAD OF MAIN TROF MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS THRU THU MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS INCREASE AND BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
MOVING UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 6+
FT IN THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TOMORROW SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE POSTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THU NIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SSW WINDS 10-20KT AND
SEAS 4-6FT THU NIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI MORNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING NORTH.
VEERING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING NWLY FRI NIGHT
INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH CAA. NWLY WINDS CONTINUE SAT AND
SUN...DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
MON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD
000
FXUS62 KMHX 221759
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
159 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EASTERN NC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY WHICH
WILL REDUCE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS. ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING DURING THE LATE
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
AND MEAGER UPPER SUPPORT BUT A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY GIVEN
ABV AVERAGE PWATS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP NEAR THE
COAST FOR A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS GRAZING THE AREA THIS AFTN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPR
70S/AROUND 80 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...AS UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W MDLS SHOW
SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NC WITH PRECIP WTRS AOA 1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE CST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS CST AND
LOWEST DEEP INLAND. MILD AND MOIST SSW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO
THURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURS WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.65 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THURS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SAT. WEAK CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME
INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI
NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUES. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH TUES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON
AND TUES AS THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS INVOF SCTD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTORMS. OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INCREASING AHEAD OF MAIN TROF MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS THRU THU MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURS/THURS NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...HIGHEST CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT TODAY
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET MOST WTRS THIS EVENING AND CONT IN THAT RANGE
TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA TODAY THEN INCREASING SHRA AND TSRA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WED...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THURS
AND THURS NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES TIGHTER THURS AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WATERS FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. SEAS DIMINISH SUN TO 2-3 FT SOUTH OF
DIAMOND SHOALS TO 2-4 FT NORTH. PREVIOUS SEAS FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL A FOOT OR TWO BELOW RAW 00Z WAVEWATCH RUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/DAG
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 221733
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EASTERN NC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY WHICH
WILL REDUCE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS. ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING DURING THE LATE
AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPR
70S/AROUND 80 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...AS UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W MDLS SHOW
SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NC WITH PRECIP WTRS AOA 1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE CST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS CST AND
LOWEST DEEP INLAND. MILD AND MOIST SSW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO
THURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURS WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.65 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THURS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SAT. WEAK CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME
INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI
NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUES. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH TUES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON
AND TUES AS THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS INVOF SCTD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTORMS. OFFSHORE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INCREASING AHEAD OF MAIN TROF MOVING THRU THE MIDWEST. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS THRU THU MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURS/THURS NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...HIGHEST CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT TODAY
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET MOST WTRS THIS EVENING AND CONT IN THAT RANGE
TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA TODAY THEN INCREASING SHRA AND TSRA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WED...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THURS
AND THURS NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES TIGHTER THURS AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WATERS FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. SEAS DIMINISH SUN TO 2-3 FT SOUTH OF
DIAMOND SHOALS TO 2-4 FT NORTH. PREVIOUS SEAS FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL A FOOT OR TWO BELOW RAW 00Z WAVEWATCH RUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/DAG
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
000
FXUS62 KMHX 221430
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EASTERN NC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY WHICH
WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ISOLD/SCTD
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN STILL BE EXPECT INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BNDRY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF HWY 17 LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL THIS TREND WILL CONITNUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOW THIS AFTN
GIVEN THE APPARENT NON-EXISTENT UPPER SUPPORT BUT A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ABV NORMAL PRECIP WATER AND MOIST
SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPR
70S/AROUND 80 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WED...AS UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W MDLS SHOW
SURGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NC WITH PRECIP WTRS AOA 1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE CST BY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS CST AND
LOWEST DEEP INLAND. MILD AND MOIST SSW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH UPR 60S TO AROUND 70 AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO
THURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SW WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THURS WITH GOOD LIFT AND
PWATS APPROACHING 1.65 INCHES. THE MAIN THREAT THURS WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
THURS AND FRI WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE
COAST...WINDS SHIFTING NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SAT. WEAK CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SOME
INLAND AREAS COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FRI
NIGHT/SAT AM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE ESE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON AND TUES. WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON THROUGH TUES. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM MON
AND TUES AS THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MVFR CIGS ARE INTERMITTENT AT TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS CLOUD BASES INCREASE AND
SCATTER OUT THRU MIDDAY. ONLY ISOLD/SCTD CONVECTION (AND SHORT
DURATION SUB-VFR) EXPECTED INLAND THIS AFTN. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING...EXPECT
WILL HAVE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA AND ALSO POSS IN STRATUS
FURTHER INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS INTO
THURS NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURS/THURS NIGHT. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...HIGHEST CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT TODAY
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET MOST WTRS THIS EVENING AND CONT IN THAT RANGE
TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA TODAY THEN INCREASING SHRA AND TSRA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WED...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THURS
AND THURS NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES TIGHTER THURS AFTERNOON AND SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WATERS FRI. WINDS BECOME N/NW FRI EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
KT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION. SEAS DIMINISH SUN TO 2-3 FT SOUTH OF
DIAMOND SHOALS TO 2-4 FT NORTH. PREVIOUS SEAS FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL A FOOT OR TWO BELOW RAW 00Z WAVEWATCH RUN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/RF/DAG
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
| 
