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000
FXUS62 KMHX 270523
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1218 AM FRI...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED. EXPECTED WESTERN SECTIONS TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO FORECAST LEVELS. IF CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
WILL ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SO FAR NO FOG HAS
FORMED. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET CLEARING COULD SEE FOG FORMATION WITH
DECOUPLED WIND AND WET GROUND. WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND IN GRIDS OF
FOG OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1209 AM FRI...LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...ALLOWING LOW CIGS TO DISSIPATE. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY ENOUGH...MAY HAVE FOG FORMATION IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH
WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES...AND DECOUPLING WINDS. EXPECT WESTERN
TAFS TO CLEAR OUT EARLIER SO WILL HAVE SUB-VFR VIS
MENTIONED...CLEARING OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR FOG FORMATION IN EASTERN TAFS SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF IT OUT OF
TAFS. EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP AGAIN.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1222 AM FRI...NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS MORNING RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS RUNNING
8 TO 9 FEET. NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP MODERATE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE SOUNDS TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AS 1 AM AS WIND HAS DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SCA WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM THURSDAY...DIMINISHING AREA OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 2Z. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
THOUGH AND THIS WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MORE
DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 20S
BUT THIS PREDICATED ON CLEARING. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECOUPLE 03Z-06Z ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 SO SOME SMALL
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR THEN BUT IF CLODS ARE SLOW
TO CLEAR THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

THE CLOUDS ARE ALSO COMPLICATING THE FOG FORECAST. WITH WET
GROUND FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAINS ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SO WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
DENSE FOG FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE THE STRONG DRY ADVECTION NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE WITH STEADILY
DROPPING DEWPOINTS AND DRYING IN THE BL SEEN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THUS BEST FOG FORMATION MAY OCCUR WEST OF I95 WHERE
BETTER CLEARING WILL OCCUR. TOUGH CALL WITH MIXED SIGNALS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH
WINDS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR
THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 270220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM THURSDAY...DIMINISHING AREA OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 2Z. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
THOUGH AND THIS WILL MAKE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MORE
DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE MID 20S
BUT THIS PREDICATED ON CLEARING. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECOUPLE 03Z-06Z ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 SO SOME SMALL
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR THEN BUT IF CLODS ARE SLOW
TO CLEAR THEN LOWS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.

THE CLOUDS ARE ALSO COMPLICATING THE FOG FORECAST. WITH WET
GROUND FROM LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAINS ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SO WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
DENSE FOG FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL
BE THE STRONG DRY ADVECTION NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE WITH STEADILY
DROPPING DEWPOINTS AND DRYING IN THE BL SEEN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THUS BEST FOG FORMATION MAY OCCUR WEST OF I95 WHERE
BETTER CLEARING WILL OCCUR. TOUGH CALL WITH MIXED SIGNALS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WITH
WINDS STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR
THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 262345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT AS A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND SHOW NO SIGN OF DISSIPATING WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG DRYING
AFTER 09Z SO STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE RADAR IN
THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL STILL HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY. BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH
AROUND 32 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 262345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT AS A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND SHOW NO SIGN OF DISSIPATING WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG DRYING
AFTER 09Z SO STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE RADAR IN
THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL STILL HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY. BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH
AROUND 32 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 262345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT AS A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND SHOW NO SIGN OF DISSIPATING WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG DRYING
AFTER 09Z SO STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE RADAR IN
THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL STILL HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY. BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH
AROUND 32 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 262345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT AS A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND SHOW NO SIGN OF DISSIPATING WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG DRYING
AFTER 09Z SO STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL ERODE BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS IN THE RADAR IN
THE EASTERN ZONES SO WILL STILL HAVE A SMALL RISK FOR A SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY. BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH
AROUND 32 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...TRICKY FORECAST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 09Z WHILE MOST OF THE AVIATION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NARRE INDICATE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION MOIST GROUND FROM A WET WEEK WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL WILL INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FOG IS FORECAST TO BURN OFF
BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THURSDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUNDS UNTIL 06Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7
FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 262040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS SHOULD START
TO CLEAR BY MORNING AS COLD 1040+ MB HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG CHANNELED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. DESPITE AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT 24-27 OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH 28-32
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...CEILINGS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN MVFR
TERRITORY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LESSEN
AND MIXING DECREASES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE
RIVERS. WILL CONTINUE SCA ON THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
THROUGH 00Z AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 TO 12 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 262040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST THIS EVENING. STUBBORN LOW STRATUS SHOULD START
TO CLEAR BY MORNING AS COLD 1040+ MB HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG CHANNELED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. DESPITE AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO BE ISSUING A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING BLACK ICE/SLIPPERY ROAD POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WHICH
RECEIVED THE BULK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT 24-27 OVER MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH 28-32
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FINALLY A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 4O TO
45 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...COLD AND DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S BEACHES. WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CONTINUE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTH...LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST AND HIGHS 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TUESDAY. EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION THURSDAY
AND CROSS EASTERN NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
OFFSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM WHERE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...CEILINGS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN MVFR
TERRITORY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LESSEN
AND MIXING DECREASES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND
CROSS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE TAFS
TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE
RIVERS. WILL CONTINUE SCA ON THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
THROUGH 00Z AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY WITH
VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 TO 12 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST
OF COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY THOUGH SEAS REMAIN
3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND NO DRIZZLE IS BEING NOTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON..MAINLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...CEILINGS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN MVFR
TERRITORY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LESSEN
AND MIXING DECREASES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WILL ALLOW GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM
AS WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL
REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
ADVISORY STATUS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND NO DRIZZLE IS BEING NOTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON..MAINLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...CEILINGS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN MVFR
TERRITORY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LESSEN
AND MIXING DECREASES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WILL ALLOW GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM
AS WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL
REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
ADVISORY STATUS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261747
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED ALL PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND NO DRIZZLE IS BEING NOTED. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON..MAINLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...CEILINGS PRETTY WELL LOCKED IN MVFR
TERRITORY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROP TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LESSEN
AND MIXING DECREASES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WILL ALLOW GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM
AS WINDS TRENDING DOWNWARD AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL
REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 30S OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
ADVISORY STATUS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261456
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM THURSDAY...WILL BE ALLOWING ALL WINTER
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRE AS OF 10 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST OF EAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING PSBL LATE. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY AND WILL
DIMINISH TO JUST THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 15Z...WITH SMALL
CHC OF FREEZING DRZL AT KPGV WITH TEMPS BACK NEAR 32. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR OR BETTER TODAY...BUT SOME IFR FOG EXPECTED KPGV AND KISO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY NRLY WINDS 15-25 KT THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...WILL EXTEND GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE THROUGH 18Z. CURRENTLY SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS
AT DUCK PIER AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION. THESE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO ACCELERATE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. SEAS ARE AROUND 8 FEET WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE
NORTH COAST AND PERHAPS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261456
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM THURSDAY...WILL BE ALLOWING ALL WINTER
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EXPIRE AS OF 10 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST OF EAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING PSBL LATE. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY AND WILL
DIMINISH TO JUST THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 15Z...WITH SMALL
CHC OF FREEZING DRZL AT KPGV WITH TEMPS BACK NEAR 32. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR OR BETTER TODAY...BUT SOME IFR FOG EXPECTED KPGV AND KISO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY NRLY WINDS 15-25 KT THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...WILL EXTEND GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE THROUGH 18Z. CURRENTLY SEEING GALE FORCE GUSTS
AT DUCK PIER AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION. THESE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO ACCELERATE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. SEAS ARE AROUND 8 FEET WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE
NORTH COAST AND PERHAPS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/CTC/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...TEMPS HAVE RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS
PAST HOUR WITH LOW TRACKING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS...BUT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES NE AND NW SECTIONS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 32 AGAIN. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY BUT CONTINUING WS
WARNING/ADVSY UNTIL 10 AM FOR PSBL ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUM.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR EXPECTED FALLING TEMPS NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO OTHER CHANGES.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVSY FOR
INLAND SECTIONS BUT DROPPED FOR OUTER BANKS AND MAINLAND DARE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WDSPRD PRECIP DIMINISHING TO PATCHY AS MID
LVL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREA...BUT THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER WARNING/ADVSY AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS LOW PULLS
SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO AREA AFTER 7 AM. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MAINLY NW
OF OAJ-EWN-SWANQUARTER LINE.

PERIOD OF GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS UNTIL 10 AM.

TEMPS MAY BE BIT OF A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE TODAY AS LOW MOVES UP
ALONG COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING
MOST AREAS INITIALLY...BUT TEMPS FALLING AGAIN LATE MORNING WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF LOW...THEN STEADY DURING AFTN. HIGHS FROM MID 30S
INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING PSBL LATE. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY AND WILL
DIMINISH TO JUST THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 15Z...WITH SMALL
CHC OF FREEZING DRZL AT KPGV WITH TEMPS BACK NEAR 32. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR OR BETTER TODAY...BUT SOME IFR FOG EXPECTED KPGV AND KISO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY NRLY WINDS 15-25 KT THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. DEEPENING SFC LOW
NOW MOVING NE OF HAT AND PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON BACK
SIDE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...DEEPING LOW MOVING UP ALONG COAST WILL
PRODUCE 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONTINUED GALE WARNING EXCEPT SCA FOR S OF
LOOKOUT AND SRN RIVERS.

LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT THIS
AFTN...AND BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 7-10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TONIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 261233
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
733 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...TEMPS HAVE RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS
PAST HOUR WITH LOW TRACKING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS...BUT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES NE AND NW SECTIONS
WILL DROP TO NEAR 32 AGAIN. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY BUT CONTINUING WS
WARNING/ADVSY UNTIL 10 AM FOR PSBL ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUM.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR EXPECTED FALLING TEMPS NEXT FEW
HOURS...NO OTHER CHANGES.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVSY FOR
INLAND SECTIONS BUT DROPPED FOR OUTER BANKS AND MAINLAND DARE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WDSPRD PRECIP DIMINISHING TO PATCHY AS MID
LVL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREA...BUT THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER WARNING/ADVSY AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS LOW PULLS
SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO AREA AFTER 7 AM. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MAINLY NW
OF OAJ-EWN-SWANQUARTER LINE.

PERIOD OF GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS UNTIL 10 AM.

TEMPS MAY BE BIT OF A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE TODAY AS LOW MOVES UP
ALONG COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING
MOST AREAS INITIALLY...BUT TEMPS FALLING AGAIN LATE MORNING WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF LOW...THEN STEADY DURING AFTN. HIGHS FROM MID 30S
INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING PSBL LATE. RAIN BECOMING PATCHY AND WILL
DIMINISH TO JUST THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 15Z...WITH SMALL
CHC OF FREEZING DRZL AT KPGV WITH TEMPS BACK NEAR 32. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR OR BETTER TODAY...BUT SOME IFR FOG EXPECTED KPGV AND KISO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY NRLY WINDS 15-25 KT THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. DEEPENING SFC LOW
NOW MOVING NE OF HAT AND PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON BACK
SIDE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...DEEPING LOW MOVING UP ALONG COAST WILL
PRODUCE 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONTINUED GALE WARNING EXCEPT SCA FOR S OF
LOOKOUT AND SRN RIVERS.

LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT THIS
AFTN...AND BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 7-10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TONIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261004
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
504 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVSY FOR
INLAND SECTIONS BUT DROPPED FOR OUTER BANKS AND MAINLAND DARE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WDSPRD PRECIP DIMINISHING TO PATCHY AS MID
LVL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREA...BUT THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER WARNING/ADVSY AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS LOW PULLS
SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO AREA AFTER 7 AM. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MAINLY NW
OF OAJ-EWN-SWANQUARTER LINE.

PERIOD OF GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS UNTIL 10 AM.

TEMPS MAY BE BIT OF A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE TODAY AS LOW MOVES UP
ALONG COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING
MOST AREAS INITIALLY...BUT TEMPS FALLING AGAIN LATE MORNING WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF LOW...THEN STEADY DURING AFTN. HIGHS FROM MID 30S
INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL TAF
SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL
INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV AND KISO SEEING MAINLY
SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER
AREA 09Z- 12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE PSBL THROUGH MID-
MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED
MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z- 15Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...DEEPING LOW MOVING UP ALONG COAST WILL
PRODUCE 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONTINUED GALE WARNING EXCEPT SCA FOR S OF
LOOKOUT AND SRN RIVERS.

LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT THIS
AFTN...AND BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 7-10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TONIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/JBM





000
FXUS62 KMHX 261004
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
504 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVSY FOR
INLAND SECTIONS BUT DROPPED FOR OUTER BANKS AND MAINLAND DARE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. WDSPRD PRECIP DIMINISHING TO PATCHY AS MID
LVL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREA...BUT THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER WARNING/ADVSY AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS LOW PULLS
SOME COLDER AIR BACK INTO AREA AFTER 7 AM. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MAINLY NW
OF OAJ-EWN-SWANQUARTER LINE.

PERIOD OF GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS UNTIL 10 AM.

TEMPS MAY BE BIT OF A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE TODAY AS LOW MOVES UP
ALONG COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WARMING
MOST AREAS INITIALLY...BUT TEMPS FALLING AGAIN LATE MORNING WITH
CAA IN WAKE OF LOW...THEN STEADY DURING AFTN. HIGHS FROM MID 30S
INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...SECONDARY SHRT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S INLAND...WITH RE-FREEZING
AND PATCHY BLACK ICE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD AND DRY FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HIGHS FRI WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S N TO
LOW/MID 40S S. SAT LOOKS LIKE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S FAR
N TO LOWER 40S FAR S. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
UPR TEENS/AROUND 20 DEEP INLAND TO UPR 20S/LOWER 30S BEACHES.
WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AS HGTS RISE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE...HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE
AREA MON. CONT PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON. TEMPS WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD AS UPR RDG CONTS TO THE S...LOWS UPR 30S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 40S CST AND HIGHS 50S TO AROUND 60 S. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE S THRU TUE THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHRA OVER REGION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
TUE. ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S BEACHES.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH CONT CHC OF SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALL TAF
SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL
INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV AND KISO SEEING MAINLY
SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER
AREA 09Z- 12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE PSBL THROUGH MID-
MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED
MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z- 15Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM
THU...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS OVER WEEKEND
WITH NE FLOW BECOME ESE BUT FOR NOW THINK SHLD BE MAINLY VFR. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND CROSS MON WITH SCT SHRA AND POSS
SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...DEEPING LOW MOVING UP ALONG COAST WILL
PRODUCE 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF 25-35 KT WINDS FOR MOST OF WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS CONTINUED GALE WARNING EXCEPT SCA FOR S OF
LOOKOUT AND SRN RIVERS.

LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-25 KT THIS
AFTN...AND BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 7-10 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TONIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER
SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONT FRI THRU SAT KEEPING SEAS
ELEVATED IN 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF CSTL WTRS. AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES E SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MON.
SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ081-090-092>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM
MARINE...RF/JBM




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM THU...ISSUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS 4 AM-11 AM
WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE INLAND NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT NO CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNING/ADVSY HEADLINES.
RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS SET UP INLAND NEAR DPL-PGV-MQI LINE WITH MAINLY
COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN S AND E OF THERE WITH NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED PCPN. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 35 ALONG
AND S OF HAT-NKT-NCA LINE PAST HOUR...AND TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALL TAF SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV
AND KISO SEEING MAINLY SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER AREA 09Z-12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
PSBL THROUGH MID-MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT EXPECTED MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z-15Z.

AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST OF AREA 4AM-7AM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES MOVES UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO 10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ047-081-090-092>094-098-103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM THU...ISSUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS 4 AM-11 AM
WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE INLAND NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT NO CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNING/ADVSY HEADLINES.
RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS SET UP INLAND NEAR DPL-PGV-MQI LINE WITH MAINLY
COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN S AND E OF THERE WITH NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED PCPN. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 35 ALONG
AND S OF HAT-NKT-NCA LINE PAST HOUR...AND TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALL TAF SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV
AND KISO SEEING MAINLY SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER AREA 09Z-12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
PSBL THROUGH MID-MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT EXPECTED MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z-15Z.

AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST OF AREA 4AM-7AM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES MOVES UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO 10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ047-081-090-092>094-098-103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM THU...ISSUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS 4 AM-11 AM
WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE INLAND NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT NO CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNING/ADVSY HEADLINES.
RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS SET UP INLAND NEAR DPL-PGV-MQI LINE WITH MAINLY
COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN S AND E OF THERE WITH NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED PCPN. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 35 ALONG
AND S OF HAT-NKT-NCA LINE PAST HOUR...AND TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALL TAF SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV
AND KISO SEEING MAINLY SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER AREA 09Z-12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
PSBL THROUGH MID-MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT EXPECTED MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z-15Z.

AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST OF AREA 4AM-7AM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES MOVES UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO 10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ047-081-090-092>094-098-103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260651
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM THU...ISSUED WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS 4 AM-11 AM
WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 25 TO 35
MPH WINDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE INLAND NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT NO CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNING/ADVSY HEADLINES.
RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS SET UP INLAND NEAR DPL-PGV-MQI LINE WITH MAINLY
COLD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN S AND E OF THERE WITH NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED PCPN. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 35 ALONG
AND S OF HAT-NKT-NCA LINE PAST HOUR...AND TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALL TAF SITES PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS LOW LVL MSTR WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN UNDER LOW LVL INVERSION UNTIL TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH KPGV
AND KISO SEEING MAINLY SNOW...AND KEWN AND KOAJ RAIN. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SW TO NE OVER AREA 09Z-12Z...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
PSBL THROUGH MID-MORNING INLAND SITES. N-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25
KT EXPECTED MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ 09Z-15Z.

AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MOST OF AREA 4AM-7AM AS DEEPENING
LOW PRES MOVES UP FROM S-SW.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO 10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ047-081-090-092>094-098-103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 260333
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1033 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO
10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-
     081-090-092>094-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-
     154-156.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 260333
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1033 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...MAIN CHANGE TO OVERALL FCST WAS TO REMOVE
CARTERET COUNTY FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT
REMAINDER OF EVENT WILL BE RAIN HERE...AS COLUMN HAS WE BULBED
DOWN TO 33 DEGREES AT THE SFC...AND WITH CONTINUED NEAR TERM GUID
SUGGESTING SFC LOW PRES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...STRONG
E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OFF THE WATERS.
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CARTERET...
SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. MOST OF ONSLOW AND
PAMLICO COUNTY...AS WELL AS MUCH OF OBX DARE WILL REMAIN
RAIN...THOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACCUM AND NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE FROM THE ADVISORY ATTM. NEAR TERM MODEL
X-SECTIONS INDICATE NW CORNER OF FA COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS THAN THE ADVERTISED 4-6 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
FCST...AS TREMENDOUS OMEGA/FGEN IN DGZ OCCURS HERE PER RAP/NAM.
BIG QUESTION MARK IS THE INTRUSION OF SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE POSSIBLE HIGHER
TOTALS...SO WILL NOT ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE COAST AS WE EXPECT
AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS FALLING ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING POSSIBILITIES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL BE RATHER
SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS WITH AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA THEN EXIT THE REGION
BY NOON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM SNOW AND
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TO RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING
WITH SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIER/STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATERS AND PRODUCES STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS RAPIDLY TO 7 TO
10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-
     081-090-092>094-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-
     154-156.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...SOME CHANGES TO PTYPE AND TIMING FOR TONIGHT
WAS MADE TO THE GRIDS...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN QPF. LATEST
TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF SLEET TO
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAY HAVE TO
REEVALUATE TO REMOVE SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ADVISORY PRIOR TO
THE CURRENT ENDING TIMES OF 10AM...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS ADJUST TO
COLUMN COOLING BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LAYOUT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...THOUGH
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME HIGHER ICING TOTALS TO THESE AREAS AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER TO A PREDOMINANT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SNOW PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET ARE THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA NAMELY MARTIN COUNTY. CURRENT SNOW AND SLEET
TOTALS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH A 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY IN THE
WARNING AREAS. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
CARTERET...SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AS LATEST
TRENDS ARE TO BRING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
THEREFORE WARMER TEMPS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE
COAST AS WE EXPECT AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS
FALLING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE
EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-
     081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 252346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...SOME CHANGES TO PTYPE AND TIMING FOR TONIGHT
WAS MADE TO THE GRIDS...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN QPF. LATEST
TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF SLEET TO
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAY HAVE TO
REEVALUATE TO REMOVE SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ADVISORY PRIOR TO
THE CURRENT ENDING TIMES OF 10AM...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS ADJUST TO
COLUMN COOLING BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LAYOUT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...THOUGH
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME HIGHER ICING TOTALS TO THESE AREAS AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER TO A PREDOMINANT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SNOW PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET ARE THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA NAMELY MARTIN COUNTY. CURRENT SNOW AND SLEET
TOTALS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH A 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY IN THE
WARNING AREAS. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
CARTERET...SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AS LATEST
TRENDS ARE TO BRING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
THEREFORE WARMER TEMPS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE
COAST AS WE EXPECT AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS
FALLING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE
EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-
     081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252346
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...SOME CHANGES TO PTYPE AND TIMING FOR TONIGHT
WAS MADE TO THE GRIDS...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN QPF. LATEST
TRENDS IN NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF SLEET TO
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. MAY HAVE TO
REEVALUATE TO REMOVE SOME COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ADVISORY PRIOR TO
THE CURRENT ENDING TIMES OF 10AM...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SFC TEMPS ADJUST TO
COLUMN COOLING BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING LAYOUT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...THOUGH
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME HIGHER ICING TOTALS TO THESE AREAS AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX CHANGES OVER TO A PREDOMINANT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SNOW PER MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET ARE THE FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA NAMELY MARTIN COUNTY. CURRENT SNOW AND SLEET
TOTALS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH A 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY IN THE
WARNING AREAS. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
CARTERET...SOUTHERN ONSLOW...AND HYDE AND SOUTHERN DARE COUNTIES
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT AS LATEST
TRENDS ARE TO BRING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
THEREFORE WARMER TEMPS TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESP NEAR THE
COAST AS WE EXPECT AN AVG OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HERE. THIS
FALLING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AS DURATION OF THE
EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT AND WILL HANDLE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY
FORECAST UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z
CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR
SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF
MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN
EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS AND A FEW
SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED
ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE
INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-
     081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY FORECAST UNFOLDING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY
ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD
AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE
COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN
THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A
FEW SPOTS AND A FEW SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING
IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 252015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY FORECAST UNFOLDING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY
ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD
AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE
COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN
THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A
FEW SPOTS AND A FEW SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING
IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 252015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...DIFFICULT WINTRY FORECAST UNFOLDING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER IN
THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z CYCLE...REDUCING CONFIDENCE
IN THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LIKELY
ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OR SO. THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER COLD
AIR...THINK MOSTLY SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER. THE CORRIDOR OF MARTIN/PITT/GREENE COUNTIES APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WITH SOME TRANSITION
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CLOSER TO
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND OUTER BANKS HYDE
COUNTY...EXPECT A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. WILL KEEP CARTERET COUNTY IN
THE ADVISORY AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN A
FEW SPOTS AND A FEW SPOTS OF ICE COULD FORM. OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF OREGON INLET...SOME LIGHT
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WARNING
IS TO ADD TYRRELL COUNTY BASED ON HPC AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
AS A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH THREE INCHES THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING
FURTHER INLAND...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN ALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO ABOVE
FREEZING. AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL INLAND WITH THE SNOW/ICE
COVER TO THE MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...OPERATIONAL SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY AROUND 06Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
YIELDING WEAK CAA/NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHWARD TOWARDS EASTERN NC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHAIN MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO EASTERN NC
MONDAY AND LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS/CAPE FEAR THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. MINOR EDITS TO POPS/WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
BRIEF STALL TUESDAY, MAINLY TO CAPTURE REDUCED POPS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THEN BEGIN TO WARM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S INLAND WITH 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE FOR PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BUILD NEAR CLIMATOLOGY, ROUGHLY 60 F, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. GO TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT
01Z-03Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LIGHT RAIN KOAJ/KEWN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KISO WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT KPGV AS THE COLD AIR IS
DEEPER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AT KEWN/KOAJ
BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN AT KISO/KPGV. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN AT IFR THROUGH THE CYCLE...BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NW/N THIS
AFTERNOON. AS DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
MAKES IT MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY
CRANKS UP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PER LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL...SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL TO 5 TO 7 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF
THE REGION SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BUILDING NE AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
USED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH III FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251437
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

...UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MARTIN...PITT...GREENE...
WASHINGTON...BEAUFORT AND LENOIR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE ADVISORY FOR
ALL OTHER COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE GIVEN SNOW/ICE COVER AND
HAVE TWEAKED BACK A DEGREE OR SO ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE UPGRADED NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR UP TO 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
GREENE...MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES. HAVE GONE TO AN ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA. WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 1-2 INCHES AND POSSIBLY SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. A LITTLE MORE TRICKY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST RAIN FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUTER
BANKS. HAVE REMOVED OUTER BANKS HYDE FROM THE WATCH AND HAVE
DOWNGRADED CARTERET TO AN ADVISORY FOR PERHAPS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ICE. WILL LIKELY MAKE MORE TWEAKS AS 12Z GUIDANCE COMES IN.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT ALL BUT KPGV
PAST HOUR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR OVER SNOW/ICE PACK WITH
SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH HEATING BY 14Z.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING
EVENING WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MOST SITES 03Z-06Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. KOAJ AND
KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

NE WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS
CURRENTLY AS AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND SOUNDS.

SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING N-NE
WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ046-047-081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251437
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
937 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

...UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MARTIN...PITT...GREENE...
WASHINGTON...BEAUFORT AND LENOIR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE ADVISORY FOR
ALL OTHER COUNTIES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SLOW TO RISE GIVEN SNOW/ICE COVER AND
HAVE TWEAKED BACK A DEGREE OR SO ON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE UPGRADED NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR UP TO 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
GREENE...MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES. HAVE GONE TO AN ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA. WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 1-2 INCHES AND POSSIBLY SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. A LITTLE MORE TRICKY CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST RAIN FOR CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUTER
BANKS. HAVE REMOVED OUTER BANKS HYDE FROM THE WATCH AND HAVE
DOWNGRADED CARTERET TO AN ADVISORY FOR PERHAPS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ICE. WILL LIKELY MAKE MORE TWEAKS AS 12Z GUIDANCE COMES IN.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT ALL BUT KPGV
PAST HOUR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR OVER SNOW/ICE PACK WITH
SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH HEATING BY 14Z.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING
EVENING WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MOST SITES 03Z-06Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. KOAJ AND
KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

NE WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS
CURRENTLY AS AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND SOUNDS.

SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING N-NE
WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-079-080-091.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ046-047-081-090-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUSD DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM TUESDAY EVENT.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AT OR BELOW COOLEST GDNC AS SNOW AND ICE
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ALL
ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AREA TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER NW SECTIONS...MAINLY
MARTIN...PITT...GREENE COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST OF NRN HALF
OF AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT 12Z GDNC THIS MORNING FOR BETTER
TAKE ON WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES PSBL FAR NW...AND 1 TO 2 NW OF KENANSVILLE TO
MANTEO LINE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT ALL BUT KPGV
PAST HOUR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR OVER SNOW/ICE PACK WITH
SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH HEATING BY 14Z.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING
EVENING WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MOST SITES 03Z-06Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. KOAJ AND
KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

NE WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS TO EXPIRE AT
700 AM...AND POSTED NEW SCA FOR ALL BUT RIVERS TONIGHT INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH
THIS MORNING BUT WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS STILL
AROUND 6 FT EARLY...THUS CONTINUED SCA UNTIL 7 AM. BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND SOUNDS.

SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TO 3-4 FT BY
EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
N-NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 251239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUSD DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM TUESDAY EVENT.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AT OR BELOW COOLEST GDNC AS SNOW AND ICE
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ALL
ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AREA TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER NW SECTIONS...MAINLY
MARTIN...PITT...GREENE COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST OF NRN HALF
OF AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT 12Z GDNC THIS MORNING FOR BETTER
TAKE ON WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES PSBL FAR NW...AND 1 TO 2 NW OF KENANSVILLE TO
MANTEO LINE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT ALL BUT KPGV
PAST HOUR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR OVER SNOW/ICE PACK WITH
SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH HEATING BY 14Z.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING
EVENING WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MOST SITES 03Z-06Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. KOAJ AND
KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

NE WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS TO EXPIRE AT
700 AM...AND POSTED NEW SCA FOR ALL BUT RIVERS TONIGHT INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH
THIS MORNING BUT WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS STILL
AROUND 6 FT EARLY...THUS CONTINUED SCA UNTIL 7 AM. BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND SOUNDS.

SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TO 3-4 FT BY
EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
N-NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUSD DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM TUESDAY EVENT.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AT OR BELOW COOLEST GDNC AS SNOW AND ICE
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ALL
ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AREA TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER NW SECTIONS...MAINLY
MARTIN...PITT...GREENE COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST OF NRN HALF
OF AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT 12Z GDNC THIS MORNING FOR BETTER
TAKE ON WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES PSBL FAR NW...AND 1 TO 2 NW OF KENANSVILLE TO
MANTEO LINE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT ALL BUT KPGV
PAST HOUR DUE TO LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR OVER SNOW/ICE PACK WITH
SOME MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH HEATING BY 14Z.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK
HIGH PRES OVER AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING
EVENING WITH LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MOST SITES 03Z-06Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. KOAJ AND
KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

NE WINDS 10-15 KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED SCA FOR OUTER WATERS TO EXPIRE AT
700 AM...AND POSTED NEW SCA FOR ALL BUT RIVERS TONIGHT INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH
THIS MORNING BUT WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS STILL
AROUND 6 FT EARLY...THUS CONTINUED SCA UNTIL 7 AM. BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND SOUNDS.

SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TO 3-4 FT BY
EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
N-NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251007
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
507 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM TUESDAY EVENT.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AT OR BELOW COOLEST GDNC AS SNOW AND ICE
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ALL
ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AREA TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER NW SECTIONS...MAINLY
MARTIN...PITT...GREENE COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST OF NRN HALF
OF AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT 12Z GDNC THIS MORNING FOR BETTER
TAKE ON WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES PSBL FAR NW...AND 1 TO 2 NW OF KENANSVILLE TO
MANTEO LINE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT IFR CIGS AT KEWN AND KOAJ
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 09Z WITH DRYING/CLEARING
SPREADING IN FROM NW. THIS CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME FOG AT KOAJ...KPGV AND KISO OVERNIGHT. VSBYS 3-5SM
MAINLY EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF 1-2SM.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES DURING THE DAY WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER
AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING EVENING WITH
LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MOST
SITES 03Z-06Z. KOAJ AND KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND
KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH
THIS MORNING BUT WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS STILL
AROUND 6 FT EARLY...THUS CONTINUED SCA UNTIL 7 AM. BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.

SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TO 3-4 FT BY
EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
N-NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 251007
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
507 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
RESPITE TODAY. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL ALLOW SOME MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM TUESDAY EVENT.
LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO AT OR BELOW COOLEST GDNC AS SNOW AND ICE
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...KEPT WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE ALL
ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS. STILL EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MAINLY NRN HALF OF AREA TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER NW SECTIONS...MAINLY
MARTIN...PITT...GREENE COUNTIES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. MOST OF NRN HALF
OF AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT 12Z GDNC THIS MORNING FOR BETTER
TAKE ON WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW RACING OUT OF N GULFMEX TO
JUST OFF HAT BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL LATE EVENING ALL ZONES. PCPN DEVELOPING AS
MAINLY RAIN ALONG COAST WITH SNOW OR MIX MAINLY NW OF KENANSVILLE
TO MANTEO LINE. WARMING WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LOW MOVES UP ALONG
COAST WILL RESULT IN CHANGE OR MIX WITH RAIN TO NEAR KINSTON-
COLUMBIA LINE BY MORNING...WITH NW INTERIOR SECTIONS SEEING MAINLY
SNOW WITH CHC OF FREEZING RAIN LATE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 4 INCHES PSBL FAR NW...AND 1 TO 2 NW OF KENANSVILLE TO
MANTEO LINE.

MIN TEMPS FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE DURING THE DAY. WILL
CARRY A WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY AROUND NOON TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL AREAS AND WILL GO WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT. PRECIP WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING...AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
AGAIN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING IN MONDAY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT IFR CIGS AT KEWN AND KOAJ
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 09Z WITH DRYING/CLEARING
SPREADING IN FROM NW. THIS CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME FOG AT KOAJ...KPGV AND KISO OVERNIGHT. VSBYS 3-5SM
MAINLY EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF 1-2SM.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES DURING THE DAY WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER
AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING EVENING WITH
LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MOST
SITES 03Z-06Z. KOAJ AND KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND
KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH MIXED WINTERY
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BECOMING ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL
END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES
AWAY. MAINLY VFR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMISH
THIS MORNING BUT WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS OVER OUTER WATERS STILL
AROUND 6 FT EARLY...THUS CONTINUED SCA UNTIL 7 AM. BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES UP
FROM NRN GULFMEX. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS...WITH
NAM INDICATING GALES...AND BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FCST WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUTER WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.

SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TO 3-4 FT BY
EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
N-NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WED...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY. FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...VEERING TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND FINALLY TO EAST THEN SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 250626
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1010 PM TUE...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH SPS FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID/UPR 20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT IFR CIGS AT KEWN AND KOAJ
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 09Z WITH DRYING/CLEARING
SPREADING IN FROM NW. THIS CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME FOG AT KOAJ...KPGV AND KISO OVERNIGHT. VSBYS 3-5SM
MAINLY EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF 1-2SM.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES DURING THE DAY WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER
AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING EVENING WITH
LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MOST
SITES 03Z-06Z. KOAJ AND KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND
KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 250626
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1010 PM TUE...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH SPS FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID/UPR 20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT IFR CIGS AT KEWN AND KOAJ
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 09Z WITH DRYING/CLEARING
SPREADING IN FROM NW. THIS CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SOME FOG AT KOAJ...KPGV AND KISO OVERNIGHT. VSBYS 3-5SM
MAINLY EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF 1-2SM.

VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES DURING THE DAY WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER
AREA. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA DURING EVENING WITH
LOW PRES MOVING UP ALONG COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MOST
SITES 03Z-06Z. KOAJ AND KEWN WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN WHILE KISO AND
KPGV WILL SEE SNOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250456
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1156 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1010 PM TUE...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH SPS FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID/UPR 20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT FZRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH SOME SNOW AT KPGV. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA MID EVENING...THOUGH IFR CIGS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESP FURTHER EAST. SKIES BECOME SCT LATE TONIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER WEATHER MAKER.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/JBM/CQD/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250310
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM TUE...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH SPS FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID/UPR 20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT FZRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH SOME SNOW AT KPGV. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA MID EVENING...THOUGH IFR CIGS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESP FURTHER EAST. SKIES BECOME SCT LATE TONIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER WEATHER MAKER.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 250310
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM TUE...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH SPS FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS.
NO CHANGES TO TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY
IN THE MID/UPR 20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT FZRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH SOME SNOW AT KPGV. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA MID EVENING...THOUGH IFR CIGS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESP FURTHER EAST. SKIES BECOME SCT LATE TONIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER WEATHER MAKER.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...WINTRY MIXED PRECIP WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
BAND OF MAINLY SNOW WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE MAINLY LIGHT FZRA DUE TO WARM NOSE
ALOFT WAS AFFECTING THE REST OF THE FA. HAVE DIMINISHING CHANCES
OF FZRA IN GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN
1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS AND PLACES NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST. NO CHANGES TO
TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID/UPR
20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME READINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT FZRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH SOME SNOW AT KPGV. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA MID EVENING...THOUGH IFR CIGS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESP FURTHER EAST. SKIES BECOME SCT LATE TONIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER WEATHER MAKER.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL




000
FXUS62 KMHX 250006
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...WINTRY MIXED PRECIP WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING.
BAND OF MAINLY SNOW WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHILE MAINLY LIGHT FZRA DUE TO WARM NOSE
ALOFT WAS AFFECTING THE REST OF THE FA. HAVE DIMINISHING CHANCES
OF FZRA IN GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN
1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS AND PLACES NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST. NO CHANGES TO
TEMP FCST AS THE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID/UPR
20S FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME READINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ON THE OBX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM
LENOIR NORTHERN CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS
OVERTAKEN THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN
OCCURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE
SLEET/FREEZING IS FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION
WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING
FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT FZRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH SOME SNOW AT KPGV. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA MID EVENING...THOUGH IFR CIGS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...ESP FURTHER EAST. SKIES BECOME SCT LATE TONIGHT WITH
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER WEATHER MAKER.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUESDAY...HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7
AM AS SEAS ARE LINGERING ABOVE 6 FEET. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH
AT 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/TL
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL





000
FXUS62 KMHX 242056
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH SOME HEAVIER BANDS IN AREAS FROM LENOIR NORTHERN
CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. A WARM NOSE HAS OVERTAKEN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH
SOME SLEET. BECOMING DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH RAIN OCCURS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE AS ROADS ARE QUITE HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SLEET/FREEZING IS
FALLING ON TOP OF THE EARLIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PER NAM/GFS AND
LATEST 3KM HRRR...PRECIPITATION WILL ALL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z
WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 20S WELL INLAND TO 25 TO 30 COAST...SO EXPECT THE
HAZARDOUS ROAD/BLACK ICE SITUATION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER
EASTERN NC FOR TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
MORNING...ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC WED
EVENING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE SE COAST
WED NIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST EARLY THU...AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND KEEPS THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. CRITICAL THICKNESS
VALUES...THERMAL PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND SREF PLUMES
SHOW PRECIP STARTING OFF AS RAIN WED EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP WED NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES DEEP INLAND AREAS
REMAINING PRED SN...MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXED IN THU FOR THE
EVENT...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGHOUT. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LIQUID QPF AMTS 0.5-1"...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST. SREF PLUMES...WWD...AND MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...WITH HIGHER ACCUMS NEAR
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
INCREASED AMTS TO 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE NW TIER. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF
HWY 17 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM THU...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PTYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST VERY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLDER SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WARMER ESP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THIS TIME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INLAND AREAS
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION
AND IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE N FRI AND SAT...MOVING
OFFSHORE SUN. MODELS STILL MUCH DRIER FOR FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN AND MON...AS MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUN INTO MONDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AT
KOAJ/KEWN/KISO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME LINGER SLEET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KPGV UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES QUICKLY
CLEAR WITH ALL AREAS VFR AFTER 06Z OR SO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST WITH
PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
FROZEN PRECIP WED EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT
P-TYPE...BUT EXPECT PGV TO REMAIN PRED SN...WITH OAJ/EWN/ISO
BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. WINTER
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY FRI...BECOMING PRED VFR. SCT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM TUESDAY...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAVE CONTINUED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS EARLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THU...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WED NIGHT. STRONG
N/NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SE COAST.
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SCA FOR NOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6-10FT. NNE WINDS 15-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH ELEVATED
SEAS 4-8FT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER ONCE SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WED NIGHT EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1229 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES OVER MOST INLAND AREAS...BUT SOME TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOCKED IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
SOME TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THESOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM TUESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE MOSTLY RAIN AT
KOAJ/KEWN/KISO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME LINGER SLEET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KPGV UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES QUICKLY
CLEAR WITH ALL AREAS VFR AFTER 06Z OR SO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN LEG...BUT CONTINUES AT POINTS SOUTH WITH SEAS STILL
AROUND 6 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS AT HATTERAS COAST
GUARD STATION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/... AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND
WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241427
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK EAST AS
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING SLOWLY SATURATES AND
SNOW REACHES THE GROUND AREA-WIDE. THINK MANY MAINLAND AREAS WILL
SEE A QUICK INCH WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY
DUPLIN/ONSLOW COUNTIES. AREAS OF PENDER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
REPORTED AN INCH WITH THAT ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR CWA.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSSTHE
SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN SOUTH
OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND
WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...VFR WILL HOLD AT TAF SITES NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS QUICKLY LOWERING WITH LIGHT SNOW
BECOMING WDSPRD OVER AREA. IFR LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND
LIKELY SOME PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR KEWN...KOAJ AND KISO AFTER
21Z. PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E DURING EVENING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR 06Z-09Z. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOMING
NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED ON
THE PAMLICO SOUND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25
KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241427
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM TUESDAY...BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK EAST AS
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING SLOWLY SATURATES AND
SNOW REACHES THE GROUND AREA-WIDE. THINK MANY MAINLAND AREAS WILL
SEE A QUICK INCH WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY
DUPLIN/ONSLOW COUNTIES. AREAS OF PENDER COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
REPORTED AN INCH WITH THAT ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR CWA.
MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSSTHE
SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN SOUTH
OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH AND
WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...VFR WILL HOLD AT TAF SITES NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS QUICKLY LOWERING WITH LIGHT SNOW
BECOMING WDSPRD OVER AREA. IFR LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND
LIKELY SOME PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR KEWN...KOAJ AND KISO AFTER
21Z. PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E DURING EVENING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR 06Z-09Z. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOMING
NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED ON
THE PAMLICO SOUND. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25
KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT
REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241227
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
727 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...INITIAL BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ON RADAR
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT DUSTING OVER PORTIONS OF DUPLIN COUNTY AND
SOME FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AT HERE AT MHX. PATCHY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUM
EXPECTED MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...VFR WILL HOLD AT TAF SITES NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS QUICKLY LOWERING WITH LIGHT SNOW
BECOMING WDSPRD OVER AREA. IFR LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND
LIKELY SOME PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR KEWN...KOAJ AND KISO AFTER
21Z. PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E DURING EVENING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR 06Z-09Z. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOMING
NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241227
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
727 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...INITIAL BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ON RADAR
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT DUSTING OVER PORTIONS OF DUPLIN COUNTY AND
SOME FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AT HERE AT MHX. PATCHY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUM
EXPECTED MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. FCST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...VFR WILL HOLD AT TAF SITES NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS QUICKLY LOWERING WITH LIGHT SNOW
BECOMING WDSPRD OVER AREA. IFR LIKELY ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND
LIKELY SOME PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR KEWN...KOAJ AND KISO AFTER
21Z. PRECIP WILL END FROM W TO E DURING EVENING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR 06Z-09Z. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BECOMING
NW 5-10 KT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




000
FXUS62 KMHX 241132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE ARE TODAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA





000
FXUS62 KMHX 241045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE ARE TODAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY....MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER INLAND WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING WELL TO S
WILL THEN MOVE NE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...WITH WARM NOSE AROUDN
850 MB SPREADING N ACROSS...AND WARMING SFC TEMPS WORKING INLAND
FROM COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHANGNING TO RAIN SRN OBX
AND CRYSTAL COAST BY EVENING...WITH PRECIP BECOMING MIXED WITH
RAIN AND SLEET INLAND AND PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN PSBL FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

HAVE ADDED REST OF COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES TO WINTER WX ADVSY AND
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 7 PM FOR OUTER
BANKS HYDE WHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO 30-32 INLAND WITH IN-SITU
DAMMING...WHILE COAST WILL SEE HIGHS MID TO UPR 30S LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATAING PRECIP WILL LINGER THIS
EVENING WITH MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY INLAND
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN COAST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING OR
FRONZEN PRECIP ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. PRECIP ENDING W TO E 10 PM
TO 1 AM.

SOME CLEARING LATE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MID TO UPR 20S FOR
LOWS...AND ANY WINTER WX ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES LIKELY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES SO MADE
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO LONG TERM FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF RACES NORTHEAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT EVERYWHERE AS
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF
A MQI-EWN-DPL LINE BY LATE EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
FORECASTING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS...AND RAIN
SOUTH OF THERE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH
AND WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN SOUTH AND EAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ONLY LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS IN STORE. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH 12Z...THEN LOWERING SCU CIGS 12Z-15Z. 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH SNOW...WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO
SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE-OVER TO FRZNG RAIN 21Z-00Z...WITH
PCPN DIMINISHING 03Z-06Z BUT LOWER CIGS PERSISTING. NE TO N WINDS
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND UNDER A HIGH OVERCAST. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD ALL 4 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT
TERMINALS PGV AND ISO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY END
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR FINALLY
RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALES CENTRAL
AND SRN WATERS BUT 15-25 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST MOST WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE COME NW TONIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-25 KT PSBL CENTRAL WATERS LATE.

SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING 4-6 FT CENTRAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS THE MARINE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND RIVERS
STAYING CAPPED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT SLOWLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA




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