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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE NNW/NW AT NOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT INCREASES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE NNW/NW AT NOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT INCREASES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251343
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH N/NW
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH FORECAST MAXIMUM
VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S AREA-WIDE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SAT...WINDS ARE GENERALLY N/NW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON
ALL AREA WATERS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW
AND INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA








000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA









000
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PTS NEXT
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SATURDAY...IFR FOG AT KPGV AND MVFR AT KISO EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF QUICKLY NEXT HOUR. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD
ALL SITES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA









000
FXUS62 KMHX 250806
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEAK
SHRT WV RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHRT WV...AND SFC HIGH PRES
EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM W. MAX INSOLATION AND LIGHT W WINDS SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS TO 73-75 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...PROBLEM AREA WILL BE KPGV THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WITH STEAM FOG PRODUCING PERIOD OF IFR/OCNL LIFR. PREVAILING
VFR EXPECTED REST OF AREA WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY PSBL AT
KISO 09Z-12Z. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME W TO SW AND INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM NW...THEN SHIFT TO NW LATE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.

NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH AND LEANED TO BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND
WW3 DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTN...BUT
BUILD AGAIN TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA









000
FXUS62 KMHX 250550
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...PROBLEM AREA WILL BE KPGV THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WITH STEAM FOG PRODUCING PERIOD OF IFR/OCNL LIFR. PREVAILING
VFR EXPECTED REST OF AREA WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY PSBL AT
KISO 09Z-12Z. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT AND
BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 250443
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT AND
BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 250131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT
BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT AND BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4
FT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 242200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
600 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF 15000-20000 FT CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A
LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT AND BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4
FT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 241911 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 3-5 FEET WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
HAS BEEN BRINGING TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTH...TURNING THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL















000
FXUS62 KMHX 241849 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 143 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
MAINLY 3-5 FEET WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT
HAS BEEN BRINGING TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH...ALLOWING
THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH THE HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE SOUTH...TURNING THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ150-     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL












000
FXUS62 KMHX 241846
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1229 PM FRI...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIR MASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1232 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
RUN TO EXPIRATION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WATERS AS
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT.

WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE WILL
SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DRY
COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CGG/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 241635
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1235 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1229 PM FRI...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1232 PM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS...10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
RUN TO EXPIRATION IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WATERS AS
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT.

WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20
KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 241333
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 925 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SOUNDINGS AND SEEN STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTH ON SATELLITE PICTURES. PARTIAL SUN AND WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV...THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 932 AM FRI...NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. TIGHT
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUIDLING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WHEN THE LOOSENING GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WIND AND SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RUN 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG












000
FXUS62 KMHX 241138
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
740 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV...THEN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 240903
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG












000
FXUS62 KMHX 240847
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
447 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA FROM W TODAY...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS AREA WITH CLIPPER-TYPE SHRT WV FROM W-NW. AFTER A COOL
START...LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM UPR 60S OBX TO
LOW 70S INLAND EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY FILTERED SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES E. DRY AIRMASS
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS
INLAND...NEAR 40 FOR KDPL AND KOAJ AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW WELL TO NE AND HIGH TO
W. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES AWA FROM AREA.

LOCAL NWPS INITIALIZED TOO HIGH WITH SEAS...AND KEPT PREVIOUS FCST
WHICH IS SLIGHTL HIGHER THAN WW3. HEGHTS TO AROUND 6 FT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS INTO THIS
AFTN...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 240758
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW LOCATIONS. REST OF FCST ON TRACK
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT SFC BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE AHEAD OF SHRT WV.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRI...A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
NC SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SHUNTED OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS
DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO WILL HOLD POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY....NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT
ACROSS MOST EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 240549
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
144 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW LOCATIONS. REST OF FCST ON TRACK
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT SFC BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE AHEAD OF SHRT WV.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W...WHILE CI WILL
SPREAD IN WITH SHRT WV. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY AND NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY....NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...RF /AKQ/JBM
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...JBM/AKQ
MARINE...RF/AKQ/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240445
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMP/DEW PT
TRENDS AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW LOCATIONS. REST OF FCST ON TRACK
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AT SFC BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATE AHEAD OF SHRT WV.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY....NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...RF /AKQ/JBM
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...RF/AKQ
MARINE...RF/AKQ/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 240154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...RF /AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...RF/AKQ
MARINE...RF/AKQ











000
FXUS62 KMHX 240154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
954 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM THU...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIF THIS EVENING HOWEVER
ALL GDNCE SHOWS SPEEDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS NRN AND CNTRL WTRS
OVERNIGHT. BACKSWELL FROM DEPARTING LOW WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
N OF HAT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH DURING FRI AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS CLOSER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...RF /AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...RF/AKQ
MARINE...RF/AKQ











000
FXUS62 KMHX 232253
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRES WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM THU...LET SCA EXPIRE S OF OCRACOKE AS WINDS AND SEAS
CONT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN WATERS WITH LINGERING BACKSWELL...WL KEEP SCA
GOING INTO FRI AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...RF /AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...RF/AKQ
MARINE...RF/AKQ








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231901
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE
SOUNDS AND RIVERS WITH THE EVENING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA`S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...AKQ
MARINE...AKQ








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231901
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE
SOUNDS AND RIVERS WITH THE EVENING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA`S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...AKQ
MARINE...AKQ








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
103 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS
MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL
MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR
SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...AKQ
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...AKQ
MARINE...BTC/AKQ








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231703
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
103 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS
MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL
MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR
SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...AKQ
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...AKQ
MARINE...BTC/AKQ








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS
MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL
MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY. NW
WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO 18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR
SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/MPR
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/MPR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS
MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL
MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY. NW
WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO 18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR
SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/MPR
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/MPR






000
FXUS62 KMHX 231041
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
641 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS
OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY. NW
WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO 18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230729
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS
OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230706
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY HOWEVER NE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE INTERVALS
OF SCT/BKN SC ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW TO THE NE. INSOLATION
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH MID 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM NW.
SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS
AROUND 70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW MOVING OUT
TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NW...THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230522
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLY. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
INLAND WE WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NE
THIS MORNING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR THRU THE EVENING. NW WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO
18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/BTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230222
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS THIS UPDATE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS SOME LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS. THIS LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
TOWARDS MORNING. STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST LOCATIONS. A MID LEVEL STRATUS
DECK IS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. ALONG THE NORTHEAST CWA FROM THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION THROUGH CAPE HATTERAS A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT IT TO GRADUALLY ERODE TOWARDS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING STRONG
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG/RSB
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/JME/DAG
MARINE...CGG/RSB/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230018
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...STRONG DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NE AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. INLAND WINDS
HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLE. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT.
KEPT A VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR THE CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS CHANCE WILL
END BY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND WE
WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEPARTING
MOISTURE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE CLEARED AND EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY AS TODAY BUT STILL IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WED...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND THE SOUNDS. MAIN FEATURE IS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BUT DECIDED NOT TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS
SHORT DURATION EVENT. REGARDLESS CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET LIKELY ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH
FAR OUTER WATERS OFF LOOKOUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SO KEPT THE AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY
BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVE WELL OFF LOOKOUT EARLY TONIGHT. BLENDED A
BIT OF THE LATEST NWPS WAVE HEIGHTS INTO CURRENT FCST TO TEMPER
ITS SEAS A BIT THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...RSB/CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...RSB/JBM
MARINE...RSB/CGG/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 221955
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...WITH A DRY PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
BETWEEN DEPARTING UPR LOW TO NE AND CLIPPER SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW. SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO
WED. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND
70...THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WARMING TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH MID ATLC SFC LOW
MOVING OUT TO NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM
NW...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND WW3 USED FOR SEAS...AS NWPS JUST CAME IN
AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
EARLY FRIDAY...AND TO 2-3 FT BY EARLY SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING
AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SUBSIDING MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM/DAG
MARINE...CGG/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221847
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 139 PM WED...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
MODELS BUT THOSE DIFFERENCES WONT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWING MOISTURE BECOMING
SHALLOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND WEAK LIFT DIMINISHING. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO DECREASE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MOVE OUT SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...AREAS WILL CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SUITE SO LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SHUNT ANY PRECIP WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A
DRY REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE AGAIN
REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THURSDAY THEN BACK NEAR CLIMO...LOW
TO MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF EXCEPTION VICINITY OF
KPGV WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BUT EASTERN NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL/WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS. KPGV WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE CEILINGS OF
4000-5000 FT. THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ADVOCATING INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDLESS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MID THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WED...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF
RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS
DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM WED...TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AS IT LIFT UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH WIND REACHING UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOUBLE BARREL AND WESTERN LOW
WILL SWING DOWN THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WIND
MAY REACH AS HIGH AS GALE CRITERIA. HOWEVER WILL STAY WITH SCA
HEADLINES DUE TO SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...6 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOW...WITH WIND STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS...KEEPING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DRY
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE W TO NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE
HIGH SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...CGG/JBM








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