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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 311116
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED TO
CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LEADING TO PATCHY
FOG. ANY LOCALIZED FOG OCCURRENCE SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 12/1230Z THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHORT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHORT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...LOCALIZED LIFR PERSISTING AT PGV DUE TO
FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM TUES...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WERE
TO DROP POPS THU EVENING...BUT INCREASED TO HIGH CHC LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

WED-THU...DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
N AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE...THEN WARMER ON THU AS HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THU NIGHT-SAT...INITIAL SHRT WV WILL PRODUCE SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS
LATE THU NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FAST
MOVING SHRT WV PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY SAT AFTN. INCREASED
POPS TO 50% WITH INCREASED MODEL CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN 06Z-18Z SAT. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY DURING FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER FOR SAT.

SUN-MON...BROAD HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA AT SFC WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 55-65 SUNDAY...MODERATING TO
60-70 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED INTO FRIDAY.
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
BREEZY SW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT FRIDAY AND FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING
THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING
PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW
FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE AS TO BRING COLD FRONT THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
BASED ON INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT.

ON-GOING SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM N. WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT THU AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN
FRI INTO SAT MORNING WITH SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN TIGHTENED PRES GRAD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SAT AFTN...AND ADJUSTED FCST TO INDICATE
WINDS BECOMING NW-N AND DIMINISHING SAT EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST...WW3 AND NWPS USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS
DROPPING BELOW 6 FT WED AFTN...THEN BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PEAKING AT 7-10 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE T0NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW INLAND COUNTIES BASED ON RECENT OBS
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED 4-5 DEGREES F
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ALLOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO
HOVER NEAR ZERO FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOME SITES THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED FOG. VERY LIGHT SW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME DENSE FOR SHORT DURATIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE ENDING FOG BY 11Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT MENTION OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN AN
SPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM OHIO EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF
THE DELAWARE/NJ COAST THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT, WELL NORTH OF EASTERN NC. THE FRONT REMAINS MOISTURE-
STARVED WITH ALL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 MPH FOR THE OUTER BANKS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...MIXED BAG OF IFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO 11Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, MOSTLY DECOUPLED
WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES
PGV/ISO. HANDLED FLUCTUATIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH TEMPOS
FROM 06-10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITHOUT IMPACTS ON
AVIATION EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND LIMITED BUOY DATA
INDICATE WSW WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS
WITH INTERPOLATED SEAS 1-3 FT, PERHAPS 4 FT NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS IF
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO OFFSHORE BUOY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION
EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY ALLOWING THE SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KNOTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL HOIST SCAS FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND WITH MORNING PACKAGE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND
LATEST WAVEWATCH III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS IN SW FLOW, THEN MAINTAINING SEAS ABOVE 6 FT
TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
BUT OBX AS SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/DAG
MARINE...CGG/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...RF/DAG




000
FXUS62 KMHX 310214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...A WASHED OUT FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST...ALTHOUGH A WINDSHIFT IS ALL
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A FRONT NEARS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DROP. THUS
GIVEN BUOY DATA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED
SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE KEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME 6 FT SETS MAY STILL BE LINGERING FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 310214
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...A WASHED OUT FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST...ALTHOUGH A WINDSHIFT IS ALL
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A FRONT NEARS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DROP. THUS
GIVEN BUOY DATA FROM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED
SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HAVE KEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT SOME 6 FT SETS MAY STILL BE LINGERING FURTHER
OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH QUICKLY THEREAFTER
ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL TO THE
WEST...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE RELAXING A BIT. SO HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GIVEN LACK OF OBS...WAVE HEIGHT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. BUT
BASED ON SURROUNDING BUOY OBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DID NOT MODIFY PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO STILL SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH QUICKLY THEREAFTER
ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL TO THE
WEST...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE RELAXING A BIT. SO HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GIVEN LACK OF OBS...WAVE HEIGHT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. BUT
BASED ON SURROUNDING BUOY OBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DID NOT MODIFY PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO STILL SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH QUICKLY THEREAFTER
ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL TO THE
WEST...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE RELAXING A BIT. SO HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GIVEN LACK OF OBS...WAVE HEIGHT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. BUT
BASED ON SURROUNDING BUOY OBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DID NOT MODIFY PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO STILL SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH QUICKLY THEREAFTER
ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL TO THE
WEST...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE RELAXING A BIT. SO HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GIVEN LACK OF OBS...WAVE HEIGHT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. BUT
BASED ON SURROUNDING BUOY OBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DID NOT MODIFY PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO STILL SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS ENDING COAST AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E THRU EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN JUST TO S AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S BEACHES. SOME COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH MID 30S BUT SHLD BE BRIEF AND NO FROST
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...CORE OF STRONGER SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING OFF CST NEXT FEW HRS. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT
WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH
SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL
WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES
DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET
CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT
AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS ENDING COAST AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E THRU EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN JUST TO S AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S BEACHES. SOME COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH MID 30S BUT SHLD BE BRIEF AND NO FROST
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...CORE OF STRONGER SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING OFF CST NEXT FEW HRS. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT
WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH
SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL
WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES
DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET
CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT
AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF
FIRE WEATHER...RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS ENDING COAST AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E THRU EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN JUST TO S AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S BEACHES. SOME COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH MID 30S BUT SHLD BE BRIEF AND NO FROST
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...CORE OF STRONGER SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING OFF CST NEXT FEW HRS. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT
WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH
SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL
WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES
DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET
CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT
AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF
FIRE WEATHER...RF





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301913
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS ENDING COAST AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E THRU EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN JUST TO S AND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S BEACHES. SOME COOLER
INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH MID 30S BUT SHLD BE BRIEF AND NO FROST
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...CORE OF STRONGER SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING OFF CST NEXT FEW HRS. ONCE FRONT CROSSES
WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT
WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH
SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL
WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES
DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET
CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT
AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF
FIRE WEATHER...RF




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BACK END OF RAIN IS ALREADY OVER CSTL
PLAIN AND SHLD END QUICKLY OVER REST OF ERN NC NEXT FEW HRS. RAIN
HAS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN AND MAY SEE DECENT REBOUND LATER
THIS AFTN AS WE GET SOME SUN BUT LOWERED INLAND ARES A FEW
DEGREES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONT BEACHES BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING SOME
AS RAIN MOVES IN WITH FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS SOME
CSTL SITES PAST CPL HRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AND BECOME WRLY
LATE AS FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING...MAY BE
ABLE TO END SOONER A FEW AREAS BUT WILL MAKE CHANGES AFTER EXAMINE
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BACK END OF RAIN IS ALREADY OVER CSTL
PLAIN AND SHLD END QUICKLY OVER REST OF ERN NC NEXT FEW HRS. RAIN
HAS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN AND MAY SEE DECENT REBOUND LATER
THIS AFTN AS WE GET SOME SUN BUT LOWERED INLAND ARES A FEW
DEGREES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONT BEACHES BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING SOME
AS RAIN MOVES IN WITH FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS SOME
CSTL SITES PAST CPL HRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AND BECOME WRLY
LATE AS FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING...MAY BE
ABLE TO END SOONER A FEW AREAS BUT WILL MAKE CHANGES AFTER EXAMINE
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BACK END OF RAIN IS ALREADY OVER CSTL
PLAIN AND SHLD END QUICKLY OVER REST OF ERN NC NEXT FEW HRS. RAIN
HAS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN AND MAY SEE DECENT REBOUND LATER
THIS AFTN AS WE GET SOME SUN BUT LOWERED INLAND ARES A FEW
DEGREES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONT BEACHES BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING SOME
AS RAIN MOVES IN WITH FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS SOME
CSTL SITES PAST CPL HRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AND BECOME WRLY
LATE AS FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING...MAY BE
ABLE TO END SOONER A FEW AREAS BUT WILL MAKE CHANGES AFTER EXAMINE
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301659
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BACK END OF RAIN IS ALREADY OVER CSTL
PLAIN AND SHLD END QUICKLY OVER REST OF ERN NC NEXT FEW HRS. RAIN
HAS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN AND MAY SEE DECENT REBOUND LATER
THIS AFTN AS WE GET SOME SUN BUT LOWERED INLAND ARES A FEW
DEGREES. GUSTY SW WINDS CONT BEACHES BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING SOME
AS RAIN MOVES IN WITH FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE E OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 19Z OR SO WITH BKN VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SKIES CLR FROM W TO E LATE TODAY. VFR TONIGHT AND TUE WITH MCLR
SKIES AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE S WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE TUE. GRDNT TIGHTENS TUE AFTN AND SW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS SOME
CSTL SITES PAST CPL HRS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AND BECOME WRLY
LATE AS FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HEADLINES GOING...MAY BE
ABLE TO END SOONER A FEW AREAS BUT WILL MAKE CHANGES AFTER EXAMINE
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301324
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
924 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
BAND OF SHRA OVER CNTRL NC MOVING QUICKLY E AND WILL CROSS ERN NC
LATE MORN THRU EARLY/MID AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING AND SHLD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING HIGHS IN UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...SEVERAL SITES ALONG CST BEGINNING TO GUST
20 TO 25 KTS SO SCA LOOKS GOOD...WL ADD ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER TO SCA AS WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS CURRENTLY THESE
WTRS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301324
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
924 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
BAND OF SHRA OVER CNTRL NC MOVING QUICKLY E AND WILL CROSS ERN NC
LATE MORN THRU EARLY/MID AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING AND SHLD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING HIGHS IN UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...SEVERAL SITES ALONG CST BEGINNING TO GUST
20 TO 25 KTS SO SCA LOOKS GOOD...WL ADD ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER TO SCA AS WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS CURRENTLY THESE
WTRS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRE-
FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED E OF MTNS AND ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRE-
FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED E OF MTNS AND ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 301132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRE-
FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED E OF MTNS AND ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 301132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. PRE-
FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED E OF MTNS AND ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135-150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/JBM/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/JBM/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/JBM/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300517
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
117 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...MINOR UPDATE FOR HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS CRESTED OVER AREA AND IS MOVING
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW FLOW OVER AREA AND RISING TEMPS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT TODAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MON...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 5 TO 10 KT WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/JBM/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/JBM/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 300212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 300212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS OCCURRING NOW OR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE TEMPS CLIMB SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HAVE KEPT A FROST ADVISORY. LOWS OVERALL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AREA WIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS MOST
OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING OUTER
WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH SCA WINDS DEVELOPING
MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN DAY WHEN FRONT
CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT. HAVE SCA
DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF OREGON INLET MON
MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT INTO MON NIGHT
CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN
TIER WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT HERE THE LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
AS LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS
NEAR FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL
HAVE FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT
INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN
TIER WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT HERE THE LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
AS LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS
NEAR FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL
HAVE FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT
INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP




000
FXUS62 KMHX 292305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN
TIER WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT HERE THE LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE
AS LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS
NEAR FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL
HAVE FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
NEARS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z ACCOMPANYING LIGHT RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS AFTER THE TAF PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM SUN...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND CONT
INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 292008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
408 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 292008
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
408 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE
CARDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO
EXTREME DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY APRIL 5TH IS 0.50 TO 0.75" WHICH WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO EXTREME
DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID THROUGH SUNDAY
APRIL 5TH IS 0.25 TO 0.50" WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND
TOO STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW. COOLER AN DRIER AIR ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO EXTREME
DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID THROUGH SUNDAY
APRIL 5TH IS 0.25 TO 0.50" WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND
TOO STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW. COOLER AN DRIER AIR ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291837
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING
AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EARLY AND TEMPS SHLD DROP QUICKLY. THINK SRN TIER WILL SEE
COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SHLD SEE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HERE THE
LONGEST. LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY RISE AS LIGHT SW
WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH AND WILL ALSO SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING SRN TIER WITH MID/UPR 30S NORTH...BASED ON THIS WL HAVE
FROST ADVRY SRN TIER LATE EVENING THRU PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...FCST MOVING MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MON. MOISTURE RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD REGION IN
THE MORN THEN SLIDES OFF THE CST DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT MDLS INDICATE DECENT CVRG OF RAIN
AND HAVE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING INLAND AND EARLY AFTN BEACHES. PRECIP SHLD QUICKLY END
FROM W TO E DURING AFTN AS FRONT CROSSES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO
CHANGE TO TEMPS WITH UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANGEABLE PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IT APPEARS THERE ARE NO EXTREME
DEPARTURES IN TEMPERATURE OR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON. IN FACT THE 7 DAY WPC QPF FORECAST VALID THROUGH SUNDAY
APRIL 5TH IS 0.25 TO 0.50" WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NC
MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY/...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SWING A DRY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL LIKELY HAVE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE COLDER SHELF WATERS.

/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AS THE ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THAN THE GFS.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE
EVEN WARMER HIGHS  IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED  SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP.

/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND
TOO STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW. COOLER AN DRIER AIR ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS LATE
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CROSSES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT SW WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KTS AND SOME 4 FOOT SEAS
DEVELOPING OUTER WTRS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MDLS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST WITH
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING MOST WTRS DURING MORNING AND CONT TIL LATE IN
DAY WHEN FRONT CROSSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO W AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. HAVE SCA DEVELOPING FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND CSTL WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET MON MORNING. SCA WILL END LATE PAMLICO SOUND AND
CONT INTO MON NIGHT CSTL WTRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
AS SEVERAL FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THEN
DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KT LATE. TUESDAY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE VEERING AND DIMINISHING TO NORTHEAST
10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10
KT TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...RF/JME




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291742
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG/RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CCG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291742
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG/RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CCG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291742
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG/RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CCG/RF/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291742
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. A NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KNOTS AROUND MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUNDING MODELS AND
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AROUND
NOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG/RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CCG/RF/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291632
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1232 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...TEMPS SLOW TO RISE AND LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISC...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A FREEZE
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE CST TO
LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM SUN...WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH BUILDS
CLOSER. SEAS WILL CONT TO DROP AND ENDED SCA AT 2 PM FOR NRN AND
CNTRL WTRS. LULL IN SCA WILL BE BRIEF AS SW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY
MOST WTRS MON MORN.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291534
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1135 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291534
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1135 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291322
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
922 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL DROP A
FREEZE WARNING A LITTLE EARLY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS. HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 40S NE
CST TO LOWER 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SUN...NO CHANGES WITH SEAS CONT IN MARGINAL SCA RANGE
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS INTO THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO CST.

PREV DISC...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL
SEE SPEEDS PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...RF/CCG/CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 617 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

PREV DISC...AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SUN...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4
TO 7 FOOT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 617 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

PREV DISC...AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SUN...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4
TO 7 FOOT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 291025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 617 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

PREV DISC...AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SUN...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4
TO 7 FOOT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 291025
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 617 AM SUN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOR SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

PREV DISC...AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
KEEP SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 619 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SUN...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. SPEEDS SURGING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH MODERATE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT RELAXES...ALLOWING SEAS TO
ALSO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREV DISC...AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4
TO 7 FOOT RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES THE WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING
GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290717
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE
WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290717
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE
WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290717
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 158 AM SUN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR. DAY WILL START OUT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 40 BY LATE MORNING...BUT STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 214 AM SUN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE AFTER A CLEAR START
OF THE NIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC MONDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF QPF... GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
MON... MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS
TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS
NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND MUCH STRONG WITH THE SFC LOW
THAN THE GFS.

TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY
AND DEPENDENT OF TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ISO/SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED THU AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT
RANGE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE
WATERS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRINGING WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOOSENING GRADIENT.

WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY...BUT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WILL SEE SPEEDS
PICK UP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
TO 4 TO 5 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
MON...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT... HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING UNTIL
LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE
NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15-25KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING WITH NLY WINDS AROUND
10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES MOVES OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND INCREASING TO
10-20 KT A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE TO 3-5FT LATE THU AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...CCG/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1235 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
MODERATE GRADIENT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290449
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1235 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1249 AM SUN...VFR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL GIVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TAFS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1246 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
MODERATE GRADIENT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED SCA S OF OCRACOKE...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES PLANNED...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT CST AND SHLD
STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MOST WTRS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED SCA S OF OCRACOKE...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES PLANNED...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT CST AND SHLD
STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MOST WTRS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 290133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED SCA S OF OCRACOKE...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES PLANNED...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT CST AND SHLD
STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MOST WTRS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 290133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED SCA S OF OCRACOKE...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES PLANNED...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT CST AND SHLD
STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MOST WTRS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 282217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
CURRENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 282217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
CURRENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
CURRENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 282217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
CURRENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281951
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS EXPECTED AS
READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS (A FEW
LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND SO HAVE
ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281951
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS EXPECTED AS
READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS (A FEW
LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND SO HAVE
ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281951
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS EXPECTED AS
READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS (A FEW
LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND SO HAVE
ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281951
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
351 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS EXPECTED AS
READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS (A FEW
LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR ALL OF EASTERN
NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TO SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND SO HAVE
ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER
THE OUTER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BUT WE RECEIVED A REPORT
OF A BRIEF ICE PELLET SHOWER IN JACKSONVILLE SO HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED RAIN/SLEET UNTIL 4 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING/COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE HEATING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM SAT...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY DURING THE
EVENING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE WATERS
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
SUN DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS -5/-8C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS...TO MID 40S/LOW 50S INLAND. STILL ABOUT 15-20 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WNW MON...PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING/NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE ON THIS
PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN SC IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...MUCH
CLOSER TO CLIMO MON...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THE SWLY
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW TUE AND WED...TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THU...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WELL BACK TO THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS PUSHES THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER NOT
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME CLOSER TO WPC/ECMWF.
SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI WITH THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND BRIEF DIMINISHING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT BUT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER
SURGE TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE CONTINUED MODERATE NW FLOW
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ROUGH
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST
COAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS START OFF SUN WITH SEAS 3-6FT HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
NW 10-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-5FT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT...HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING
INTO THE EVENING. TUE WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SW BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
5FT. AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH PRED NW FLOW
10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD





000
FXUS62 KMHX 281720
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...A BROKEN LINE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BUT WE RECEIVED A REPORT
OF A BRIEF ICE PELLET SHOWER IN JACKSONVILLE SO HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED RAIN/SLEET UNTIL 4 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING/COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE HEATING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM SAT...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY DURING THE
EVENING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE WATERS
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
SUN DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS -5/-8C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS...TO MID 40S/LOW 50S INLAND. STILL ABOUT 15-20 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WNW MON...PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING/NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE ON THIS
PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN SC IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...MUCH
CLOSER TO CLIMO MON...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THE SWLY
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW TUE AND WED...TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THU...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WELL BACK TO THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS PUSHES THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER NOT
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME CLOSER TO WPC/ECMWF.
SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI WITH THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABOVE 5
DEGREE SPREAD. SUNDAY...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SAT...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WINDS OVER THE
WATERS WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND BRIEF DIMINISHING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT BUT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER
SURGE TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE CONTINUED MODERATE NW FLOW
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ROUGH
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST
COAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS START OFF SUN WITH SEAS 3-6FT HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
NW 10-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-5FT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT...HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING
INTO THE EVENING. TUE WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SW BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
5FT. AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH PRED NW FLOW
10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD




000
FXUS62 KMHX 281334
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
VICINITY OF THE CRYSTAL COAST IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS WAS INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING DRY ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
THINK PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY ARE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY.
THUS WILL DECREASE POPS TO 20% THEN END THEM BY 15Z. ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER BUT STILL THINK SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PREVAILS. BASED ON
STRONGER INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET/ECMWF MOS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S (MID 40S OUTER BANKS) WHICH IS ROUGHLY ONLY
A 10 DEGREE INCREASE FROM CURRENT READINGS AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM SAT...ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY DURING THE
EVENING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE WATERS
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
EASTERN NC FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
SUN DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB
TEMPS -5/-8C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS...TO MID 40S/LOW 50S INLAND. STILL ABOUT 15-20 DEG BELOW
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WNW MON...PUSHING THROUGH MON EVENING/NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE ON THIS
PACKAGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN SC IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF THE
SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...MUCH
CLOSER TO CLIMO MON...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH THE SWLY
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW TUE AND WED...TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THU...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WELL BACK TO THE WEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS PUSHES THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER NOT
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME CLOSER TO WPC/ECMWF.
SCT SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI WITH THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 654 AM SAT...AREA OF MVFR/ISOLATED IFR SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME AS ENERGY ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH FC GOING
BACK TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AFTER THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
OFF THE COAST. SOME AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE...THEN CLEARING SKIES FOR
THE NIGHTTIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR ISO/EWN/OAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SAT...MAIN DECESION THIS MORNING REGARDS SCA FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 23 KT AT THE FERRY TERMINAL
BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES OVER DECREASING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON
SO ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
WILL SEE A SLIGHT AND BRIEF DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT BUT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER
SURGE TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE CONTINUED MODERATE NW FLOW
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ROUGH
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE WNW SUN...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST
COAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS START OFF SUN WITH SEAS 3-6FT HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
NW 10-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-5FT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7FT...HIGHEST S OF
OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON MORNING
INTO THE EVENING. TUE WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SW BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
5FT. AT THIS TIME THINK CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WED WITH PRED NW FLOW
10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CCG/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
CLIMATE...CQD




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