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000
FXUS62 KMHX 131405
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES
MODELS CONCERNING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
3 KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP
AFTER 18Z OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE RAP REMAINS DRY.
GIVEN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCE OVER MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 84 TO 92 DEGREE RANGE AND NO
CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY W/SW WITH SOME WNW WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS. SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS
MAY BUMP UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS AT 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND AROUND 3
FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 131405
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE VARIOUS HIGH-RES
MODELS CONCERNING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
3 KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP
AFTER 18Z OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE RAP REMAINS DRY.
GIVEN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCE OVER MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 84 TO 92 DEGREE RANGE AND NO
CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY W/SW WITH SOME WNW WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS. SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS
MAY BUMP UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS AT 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND AROUND 3
FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 131136
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. EARLIER
GRID UPDATE HAD ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW WEAKENING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TYPICAL
MID-JULY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU/SCU AND TEMPS A
FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER
PORTIONS OF ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES THIS AFTN BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LVL
THICKESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEGS WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY...89-92 FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND MID-UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS FOR SRN WATERS THIS
MORNING...REST OF FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...TYPICAL S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS SFC
PRES PATTERN RETURNS TO BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF. SPEEDS MAINLY 10
KT OR LESS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND
AROUND 3 FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 131136
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. EARLIER
GRID UPDATE HAD ADDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AROUND CAPE LOOKOUT EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW WEAKENING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TYPICAL
MID-JULY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU/SCU AND TEMPS A
FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER
PORTIONS OF ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES THIS AFTN BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LVL
THICKESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEGS WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY...89-92 FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND MID-UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT MVFR VSBYS AT KPGV AND KOAJ WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z...THEN VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH REST OF
TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN...AND
REMAIN AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS FOR SRN WATERS THIS
MORNING...REST OF FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...TYPICAL S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS SFC
PRES PATTERN RETURNS TO BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF. SPEEDS MAINLY 10
KT OR LESS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND
AROUND 3 FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG









000
FXUS62 KMHX 130820
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TYPICAL
MID-JULY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DIURNAL CU/SCU AND TEMPS A
FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM OVER
PORTIONS OF ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES THIS AFTN BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO ADD 20 POP AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LVL
THICKESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEGS WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY...89-92 FOR INLAND SECTIONS AND MID-UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
S-SW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SUN MORNING. LOWS
FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
08Z-13Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ. FOG WILL BURNOFF
QUICKLY...WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 14Z. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING
AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...TYPICAL S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS SFC
PRES PATTERN RETURNS TO BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF. SPEEDS MAINLY 10
KT OR LESS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FCST SEAS ON TRACK FOR TODAY BUT LOWERED A BIT TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT THIS AFTN AND
AROUND 3 FOR TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG







000
FXUS62 KMHX 130752
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
352 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
MON WITH RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST...AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE GULF
STREAM...TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS NIL SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS WITH
HIGHS 92-95 F INLAND AND 82-84 F ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR WISCONSIN MON THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOCUS A RICH
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT THEN RAMPING BACK
ABOVE 2 INCHES TUES INTO WED. MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING
MAXIMUM INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY
1425 METERS MON AND TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE TUES AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AS
WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 18Z-
00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED
WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
BEGINNING THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHIFTS THE
BOUNDARY BACK INLAND THURS NIGHT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE
WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME...CAN NOT RULE OUT GFS SCENARIO THUS TRIED TO
BLEND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH MEANS A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT/SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
08Z-13Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ. FOG WILL BURNOFF
QUICKLY...WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 14Z. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING
AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TUES THROUGH LATE
WEEK...PROVIDING A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME
LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT ENE/E ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 130552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
08Z-13Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ. FOG WILL BURNOFF
QUICKLY...WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 14Z. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING
AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JBM/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 130552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES
08Z-13Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT KEWN AND KOAJ. FOG WILL BURNOFF
QUICKLY...WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 14Z. DIURNAL CU/SCU EXPECTED DURING
AFTN BUT EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REMAIN S OF AREA. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JBM/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 130347
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 130347
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1147 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM SAT...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION/
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG/JBM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC/JBM






000
FXUS62 KMHX 130139
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 130139
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 933 PM SAT...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PART OF AREA HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SHIFTING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTLY
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LIGHT WIND...MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG FORM IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 937 PM SAT...WIND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LOOSE GRADIENT SO WINDS ARE BELOW 10 KNOTS. FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SPEEDS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET
IN THE LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL/CTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 122252
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 647 PM SAT...A FEW SHOWERS FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE STILL HANGING ON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN LOOSE GRADIENT. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS VERY LOOSE OVERNIGHT FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 122252
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 647 PM SAT...A FEW SHOWERS FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE STILL HANGING ON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN LOOSE GRADIENT. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES/DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS VERY LOOSE OVERNIGHT FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW.

ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND
SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 122240
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPR 80S NEAR THEIR FCSTED HIGHS. SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
SE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
FCST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT EASTERLY TO SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH THEN SW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT
WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4
FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CTC/TL







000
FXUS62 KMHX 122240
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPR 80S NEAR THEIR FCSTED HIGHS. SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
SE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
FCST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 639 PM SAT...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
LATE AFTERNOON WAS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO EXPECT FORMATION OF FOG IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS...SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN FOG FROM
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT EASTERLY TO SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH THEN SW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT
WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4
FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CTC/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 121900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPR 80S NEAR THEIR FCSTED HIGHS. SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
SE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
FCST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING SUN MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE SUN MORNING...SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT EASTERLY TO SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH THEN SW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT
WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4
FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/ZS
MARINE...CTC/TL








000
FXUS62 KMHX 121900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPR 80S NEAR THEIR FCSTED HIGHS. SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
SE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
FCST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING SUN MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE SUN MORNING...SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT EASTERLY TO SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH THEN SW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT
WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4
FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/ZS
MARINE...CTC/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 121731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 113 PM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. WEAK
COOL FRONT FINALLY WASHING OUT AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE LEFT IN AN ISO
SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE COAST. MAX T`S STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
NEAR 80 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING SUN MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE SUN MORNING...SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/ZPS
MARINE...JBM/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 121731
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 113 PM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. WEAK
COOL FRONT FINALLY WASHING OUT AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE LEFT IN AN ISO
SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE COAST. MAX T`S STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
NEAR 80 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING SUN MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE SUN MORNING...SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/ZPS
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 121713
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 113 PM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. WEAK
COOL FRONT FINALLY WASHING OUT AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE LEFT IN AN ISO
SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE COAST. MAX T`S STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
NEAR 80 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXPECTED LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 121713
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 113 PM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE. WEAK
COOL FRONT FINALLY WASHING OUT AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE LEFT IN AN ISO
SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE COAST. MAX T`S STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
NEAR 80 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXPECTED LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 121410
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM SAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH MORNING UPDATE. WEAK COOL
FRONT FINALLY WASHING OUT AND MOVING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK EASTERLY
SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE LEFT IN AN ISO SHOWER ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO...THOUGH EVEN HERE CHANCES ARE VERY SLIM
AS HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY. MAX T`S STILL EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXPECTED LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM









000
FXUS62 KMHX 121119
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE COASTAL LINE AND HAS PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
ERODE AWAY ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NE TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH AFTER PEAKING
HEATING. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXPECTED LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 121119
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM SAT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE COASTAL LINE AND HAS PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
ERODE AWAY ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NE TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH AFTER PEAKING
HEATING. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXPECTED LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT
NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT
WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SAT...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. LATEST BUOY
AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AFTER THE
CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT WITH
2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 120844
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
444 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP ERODE AWAY ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH AFTER PEAKING HEATING.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...EXPECTING IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS
SKIES ARE CLEARING...MOIST GROUND AND CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY
TAF SITES ARE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF  MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST
OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...LATEST BUOY AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND
FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY AFTER THE CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 2 FT WITH 2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 120844
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
444 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP ERODE AWAY ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TODAY AND WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH AFTER PEAKING HEATING.
EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...RESULTING TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER-WARDS.
GIVEN THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED...CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DROPPED POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN AND
MAD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS DURING PERIOD. LATEST GDNC HAS
TRENDED DRIER SUN AFTN AND SUPPORT NO POP FCST. OVERALL...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MON AS ANOMALOUS UPR LOW MOVES INTO
WRN GREAT LAKES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO SHARPEN INLAND AS WELL
MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CLIMO POPS OF 20 COAST AND 30 INLAND. BY
TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A DEEP MSTR AXIS OVER ERN NC FOR MID WEEK
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SFC COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING
FROM W. LATEST GDNC STILL INDICATES WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WETTEST DAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE UPR TROF
LIFTING NE THU-FRI WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPR HEIGHTS...BUT UPR
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM SW AND VERY MOIST AND SFC BNDRY STALLED NEAR
OR ACROSS AREA...THUS NO CHANGE TO HIGH CHC POPS BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND ON SUNDAY AND SOME MID 90S PSBL MONDAY.
MORE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PCPN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 80S
WED-FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...EXPECTING IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS
SKIES ARE CLEARING...MOIST GROUND AND CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY
TAF SITES ARE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF  MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR MOST
OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...LATEST BUOY AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT N/NE WIND
FLOW NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND LIGHT SW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY AFTER THE CROSSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE
AROUND 2 FT WITH 2 TO 3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SFC PATTERN WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KT SUN AFTN...AND 15-20 KT MONDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TUE WITH SW WINDS PEAKING AROUND 20
KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUE NIGHT AND WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT MON...AND 4-5 FT TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM/BM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 120618
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM SAT...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAVE DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING APPROX. SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND HAVING A MOIST GROUND FROM THE
PREVIOUS RAINFALL...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...EXPECTING IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS
SKIES ARE CLEARING...MOIST GROUND AND CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY
TAF SITES ARE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF  MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LATEST
BUOY AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED...BUT SOME CAN CONTINUE LINGER. THE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 120618
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM SAT...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAVE DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING APPROX. SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND HAVING A MOIST GROUND FROM THE
PREVIOUS RAINFALL...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...EXPECTING IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS
SKIES ARE CLEARING...MOIST GROUND AND CALM WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL TAF SITES. CURRENTLY
TAF SITES ARE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECTING IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PREDAWN HOURS. MOST OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF  MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SAT...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LATEST
BUOY AND SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT NE WIND FLOW NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED...BUT SOME CAN CONTINUE LINGER. THE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME
DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 120143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
944 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRI...FEW SHOWERS LEFT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS LATE
EVENING ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING OFFSHORE...WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT AND HEATING...SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW
CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG FORMING IN SOME
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TIL AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 658 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. UPPER SHORT WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER
ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS HAVE PREVENTED ME FROM PUTTING THEM IN
TAFS. IF SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE...WILL GET SUBVFR
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL BURN
OFF MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 943 PM FRI...FLOW CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...AND NORTHEASTERLY OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY OVER ALL THE
WATERS BY SUNRISE AS SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 120143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
944 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRI...FEW SHOWERS LEFT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS LATE
EVENING ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING OFFSHORE...WITH LOSS OF SUPPORT AND HEATING...SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW
CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG FORMING IN SOME
AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TIL AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 658 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. UPPER SHORT WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER
ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS HAVE PREVENTED ME FROM PUTTING THEM IN
TAFS. IF SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE...WILL GET SUBVFR
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL BURN
OFF MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 943 PM FRI...FLOW CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...AND NORTHEASTERLY OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY OVER ALL THE
WATERS BY SUNRISE AS SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 112313
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 713 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR SALVO ON THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH AROUND
WALLACE. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...KEEPING THE SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FURTHER WEST. WITH
WET GROUND...LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 658 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. UPPER SHORT WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER
ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS HAVE PREVENTED ME FROM PUTTING THEM IN
TAFS. IF SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE...WILL GET SUBVFR
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL BURN
OFF MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 707 PM FRI...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS HATTERAS
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS
ARE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE WITH FLOW BECOMING
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY...STILL REMAINING LIGHT WITH LOOSE
GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 112313
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 713 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR SALVO ON THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH AROUND
WALLACE. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...KEEPING THE SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING SKIES FURTHER WEST. WITH
WET GROUND...LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT INLAND
AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS
CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK TO BE QUITE WET
ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC
RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 658 PM FRI...ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. UPPER SHORT WAVE
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER
ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS HAVE PREVENTED ME FROM PUTTING THEM IN
TAFS. IF SHOWERS DO MOVE OVER A TAF SITE...WILL GET SUBVFR
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS AS THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR ISOLATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS WILL BURN
OFF MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 707 PM FRI...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS HATTERAS
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP ALONG THE COAST. SPEEDS
ARE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE WITH FLOW BECOMING
EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY...STILL REMAINING LIGHT WITH LOOSE
GRADIENT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...CGG/CTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 111845
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...REST OF TODAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND ALSO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING NEEDED
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET
POSITION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION COLLOCATED ALONG THE
COAST...THIS MAY BE JUST BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND BECOME WASHED OUT OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE...FEELING THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND
LESS FURTHER INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE
LOW 80S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. IF WE HAVE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND WASHES OUT...EXPECT THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO GO WITH IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION...MAKING IT CHALLENGING TO VIEW THE ANTICIPATED SUPERMOON
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOG/LOW STATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE
GFS CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK
TO BE QUITE WET ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A
DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF
2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS WITH PATCHY
FOG... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS. WHILE LAV AND LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES BY
09Z...CURRENT TRENDS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR THE VISIBILITIES TO DROP.
THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO INTRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM A NW
TO SE PROGRESSION BEGINNING AT PGV AND MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BY 06Z. BY 13Z...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AT AROUND 5 KT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRI...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP/ZPS
MARINE...CTC/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 111845
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL BECOME WASHED OUT JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...REST OF TODAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND ALSO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING NEEDED
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET
POSITION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION COLLOCATED ALONG THE
COAST...THIS MAY BE JUST BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND BECOME WASHED OUT OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE...FEELING THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND
LESS FURTHER INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE
LOW 80S CLOSER TO THE SHORE. IF WE HAVE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND WASHES OUT...EXPECT THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO GO WITH IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE
COAST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION...MAKING IT CHALLENGING TO VIEW THE ANTICIPATED SUPERMOON
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOG/LOW STATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GIVEN A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER NE TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISM IN PLACE
OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SEABREEZE...FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED
TO JUST THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND DISSIPATE
AFTER PEAK HEATING. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE INITIATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PIEDMONT TROUGH STARTS TO
SHARPEN INLAND ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WELL OFFSHORE WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL POP STRUCTURE WITH 30 PCT
INLAND AND 20 PCT NEAR THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE
GFS CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER FEATURES.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD LOOK
TO BE QUITE WET ACROSS THE REGION. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT...BUT WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FLOW WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A
DEEP MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING. WPC RAINFALL PROGS SHOW UPWARDS OF
2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH MORE LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. KEPT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOWER...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS WITH PATCHY
FOG... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS. WHILE LAV AND LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES BY
09Z...CURRENT TRENDS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR THE VISIBILITIES TO DROP.
THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO INTRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM A NW
TO SE PROGRESSION BEGINNING AT PGV AND MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BY 06Z. BY 13Z...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AT AROUND 5 KT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST OF MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...A VERY WET
PATTERN SETS UP NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRI...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 3 FEET AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BECOME DOMINANT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND STALLS...AND WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE HIGH OFFSHORE...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. AT THIS TIME...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/LEP/ZPS
MARINE...CTC/LEP









000
FXUS62 KMHX 111801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRI...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND ALSO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION COLLOCATED ALONG THE COAST...THIS MAY BE JUST
BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT...WHICH IS DRAPED NE TO SW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. THEREFORE...FEELING
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND LESS FURTHER INLAND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO THE LOW 80S CLOSER TO THE
SHORE. IF WE HAVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT IS WITH PATCHY
FOG... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS. WHILE LAV AND LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES BY
09Z...CURRENT TRENDS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AND FOR THE VISIBILITIES TO DROP.
THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS TO INTRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM A NW
TO SE PROGRESSION BEGINNING AT PGV AND MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BY 06Z. BY 13Z...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE AT AROUND 5 KT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL
WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/ZPS
MARINE...JBM/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 111359
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
959 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A FRONT DRAPED FROM NAGS
HEAD SW TOWARD DUPLIN COUNTY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL BE THE CATALYSE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS BETWEEN
NAGS HEAD AND RODANTHE AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. HOWEVER...MOST
ALL THE ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S
AREA WIDE. MODIFIED TEMPS/DEW POINT TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES TO
NUMEROUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS
PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY
THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...VSBYS/CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR/LIFR FOR ALL TAF
SITE EXCEPT FOR EWN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL
WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/LEP
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 111359
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
959 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A FRONT DRAPED FROM NAGS
HEAD SW TOWARD DUPLIN COUNTY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL BE THE CATALYSE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS BETWEEN
NAGS HEAD AND RODANTHE AND ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. HOWEVER...MOST
ALL THE ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S
AREA WIDE. MODIFIED TEMPS/DEW POINT TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES TO
NUMEROUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS
PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY
THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...VSBYS/CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR/LIFR FOR ALL TAF
SITE EXCEPT FOR EWN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL
WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM/LEP
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 111145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA PLACING THE
REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES TO NUMEROUS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND
THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...VSBYS/CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR/LIFR FOR ALL TAF
SITE EXCEPT FOR EWN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL
WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 111145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM FRI...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA PLACING THE
REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES TO NUMEROUS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND
THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...VSBYS/CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR/LIFR FOR ALL TAF
SITE EXCEPT FOR EWN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRI...NO CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL
WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY. EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 110831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND
THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...EXPECTING VSBYS/CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR FOR ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM/LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
AS MODELS WERE INDICATING THESE CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR AS A
FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRI...THE LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY.
EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 110831
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN NC. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH AS PWATS IS AROUND 2" AND
THE BUKFIT MBE FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING CELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES TODAY THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF
SFC HEATING AND THEREFORE CHANCES OF SEVERE WX IS LOW.HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO DIMINISH SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR SAT-MON
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL
SHRT WV WILL MOVE OFF COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SFC FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE AS WELL. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PCPN THREAT OVER
WEEKEND WITH DRIER COLUMN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SAT AFTN WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND IN SRN SEA
BREEZE ZONE SUN AFTN...AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH TYPICAL SUMMER SW FLOW RETURNING
ON SUNDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
FOR MON WITH CLIMO 20 POPS COAST/30 INLAND DURING AFTN. UPR TROFFING
WITH UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH TUE PUSH INTO
AREA WED-THU...ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MSTR AND SFC FRONT. CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST WITH INCREASING CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTN...AND ALL
AREAS TUE NIGHT-THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS WED AFTN/EVENING.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO MID-UPR 80S FOR SAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS INDICATED BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S
INLAND FOR MON-TUE...THEN COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT
WED-THU.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...EXPECTING VSBYS/CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR FOR ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM/LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
AS MODELS WERE INDICATING THESE CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR AS A
FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT
FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE
AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRI...THE LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE ALL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN NC TODAY.
EXPECT S WIND 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE WAS TO
INDICATE NE WINDS 5-10 KT BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING QUICKLY BACK TO SW SUNDAY AS FRONT DISSIPATES OFFSHORE.
ADJUSTED SPEEDS DOWN A BIT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BASED ON MODEL
BLEND...BUT STILL EXPECT SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 KT MOST OF WATERS ON
TUE WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRAD BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

ADJUSTED WAVES HEIGHTS TOWARD LOWER WW3 SAT-MON AS NWPS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
TUE WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 110553
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
153 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DIMINISHED OR MOVED OF
THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...EXPECTING VSBYS/CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR FOR ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM/LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS
MODELS WERE INDICATING THESE CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR AS A
FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM FRI...CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
EASTERN NC AND STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/DAG/BM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 110553
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
153 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DIMINISHED OR MOVED OF
THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRI...EXPECTING VSBYS/CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR FOR ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM/LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS
MODELS WERE INDICATING THESE CONDITIONS. AFTER
SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO SUB- VFR AS A
FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM FRI...CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
EASTERN NC AND STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG/BM
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/DAG/BM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 110252
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURS...MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA...AND LOWERED
OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MHX CWA...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF ONSLOW/CARTERET/SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND COUNTIES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO
PWATS 2 INCHES OR GREATER WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS/MBE VECTORS
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HRS AS THE CONVECTION EXITS OFF THE COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM THURS...SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
INLAND SITES PGV/ISO WHERE RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN DISRUPTED DUE TO ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS. DURING THESE PERIODS...TEMPS WILL
FALL TO DEWPOINT AND MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS/LOWERED CEILINGS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD AT MVFR VSBYS 3-4SM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 12-14Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1050 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS 5-15 KT. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 110252
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURS...MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...AGAIN
MAINLY FOR RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA...AND LOWERED
OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MHX CWA...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF ONSLOW/CARTERET/SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND COUNTIES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO
PWATS 2 INCHES OR GREATER WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS/MBE VECTORS
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HRS AS THE CONVECTION EXITS OFF THE COAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM THURS...SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
INLAND SITES PGV/ISO WHERE RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN DISRUPTED DUE TO ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS. DURING THESE PERIODS...TEMPS WILL
FALL TO DEWPOINT AND MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS/LOWERED CEILINGS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD AT MVFR VSBYS 3-4SM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 12-14Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1050 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FOR THE PAMLICO
SOUND/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS 5-15 KT. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 102339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM THURS...MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...MAINLY
FOR RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES NORTH OF
DUPLIN/JONES/PAMLICO COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THOUGH THEY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...AND
HAVE CANCELED THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EARLY FOR THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY REMAIN AN ISSUED
THIS EVENING DUE TO PWATS 2 INCHES OR GREATER WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS/MBE VECTORS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM THURS...SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
INLAND SITES PGV/ISO WHERE RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN DISRUPTED DUE TO ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS. DURING THESE PERIODS...TEMPS WILL
FALL TO DEWPOINT AND MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS/LOWERED CEILINGS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD AT MVFR VSBYS 3-4SM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 12-14Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SOUTH OF RODANTHE...WITH NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND/NORTHERN WATERS 5-15
KT. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND
STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG





000
FXUS62 KMHX 102339
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
739 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM THURS...MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...MAINLY
FOR RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES NORTH OF
DUPLIN/JONES/PAMLICO COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NC THOUGH THEY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...AND
HAVE CANCELED THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EARLY FOR THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY REMAIN AN ISSUED
THIS EVENING DUE TO PWATS 2 INCHES OR GREATER WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS/MBE VECTORS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM THURS...SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
INLAND SITES PGV/ISO WHERE RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN DISRUPTED DUE TO ONGOING
WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND MAY SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF DECOUPLED/CALM WINDS. DURING THESE PERIODS...TEMPS WILL
FALL TO DEWPOINT AND MAY PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS/LOWERED CEILINGS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD AT MVFR VSBYS 3-4SM THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 12-14Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS FRIDAY
AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SOUTH OF RODANTHE...WITH NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND/NORTHERN WATERS 5-15
KT. SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND
STALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...CTC/SK/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 101909
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA
HOWEVER BRAKES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT STRONG SFC HEATING
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF
THE CWA IN A SVR WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL BRINGING
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT WITH MBE PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
WITH A SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
BRINGING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN TSTMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LESS OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 101909
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE EXITED THE CWA
HOWEVER BRAKES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT STRONG SFC HEATING
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF
THE CWA IN A SVR WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL BRINGING
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT WITH MBE PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
PLACING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WHILE THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DESCENT SFC CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT SCT-NUM SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS CHANCES TO PERSIST PAST EARLY
EVENING. MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT STALLING STALLING ACROSS EASTERN
NC. CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2".
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND EXPECT
GREATER COULD COVER LIMITING THE SFC HEATING COMPARED TO
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER
WITH HIGH PWATS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRAINING
CELLS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECREASING
INLAND POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD WITH A DRIER COLUMN AND ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...THE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL START TO SHARPEN AS UPPER
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WITH A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASON
NORMALS WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND GENERALLY LOW/MID
70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE AREA
WITH A SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
BRINGING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN TSTMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LESS OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS BRIEF REDUCTIONS FOR MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EASTERN NC AND STALLING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLY WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-15 KT FOR FRI. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT SEAS ACROSS OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT S/SW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BETTER GRADIENT AND
LIKELY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET BY TUESDAY...AND SCA
WILL LIKELY BY REQUIRED BY THIS TIME IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/BTC/SK







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