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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311807
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY EVENING
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT NEAR THE LOW WITH OBX SITES GUSTING
TO 25 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS COASTAL
SECTIONS. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND WEST
OF HWY 17 WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NE. THE STG UPR LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SWD TO THE
WRN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE. STILL SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPR
40S INLAND AND 50-55 FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AFFECT EASTERN NC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RATHER BENIGN
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCEAN
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO WAVE
RUN UP ASSOCIATED WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BASED ON MODEL LI FORECASTS AND LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE COAST. ON SUNDAY THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT BEST EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR INLAND AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
FROST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TRANSIENT
MULTILAYERED RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ADDED VCSH FOR SHOWERS
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SAT A GOOD CVRG OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR
CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT DIAMOND SHOALS
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED BY BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS NOTED BY THE ONSLOW
BAY BUOY 41036 AND DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY 41025. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND DURATION OF
5-7 FT SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST MOVING THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS
WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE NOT HOISTED AS GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-5 FT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NNW 10-15 KT AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS SUNDAY. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST
LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPCLY OUTER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH SURF AND
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-156-158.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 311512
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1112 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 11 AM FRIDAY...BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO
REDUCE POPS AND CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DEPART THE AREA. LATEST KMHX RADAR
IMAGERY NOTES ONLY WEAK RETURNS ALONG THE OBX AND OFF THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH. TRIMMED BACK POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF EASTERN NC DRY TODAY...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT NEAR THE LOW WITH OBX SITES GUSTING
TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE
LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NC DUE TO CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING MAXIMUM INSOLATION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 17 WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN THICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NE. THE STG UPR LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SWD TO THE
WRN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE. STILL SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPR
40S INLAND AND 50-55 FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AFFECT EASTERN NC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RATHER BENIGN
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCEAN
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO WAVE
RUN UP ASSOCIATED WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BASED ON MODEL LI FORECASTS AND LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE COAST. ON SUNDAY THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT BEST EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR INLAND AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
FROST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TRANSIENT
MULTILAYERED RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS EASTERN
NC TAF SITES REMAIN LOCATED BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NC COAST AND BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SAT A GOOD CVRG OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR
CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1110 AM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT DIAMOND SHOALS
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFING BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED BY BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS NOTED BY THE ONSLOW
BAY BUOY 41036 AND DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY 41025. EXTENDED DURATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER AS THE SURFACE
LOW OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST MOVING THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
FARTHER OFFSHORE AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE NOT HOISTED AS GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-5 FT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NNW 10-15 KT AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS SUNDAY. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST
LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPCLY OUTER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH SURF AND
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS BY LATE MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...DAG/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC






000
FXUS62 KMHX 310934
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TD TO INIT THE
FCST OTRW NO SIG CHANGES. SHOWERS EDGING NEAR THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK TO
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY E OF
HIGHWAY 17 WITH SCT SHOWERS AND MOCLDY SKIES. ALSO THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER ACRS COASTAL AREAS WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING N OF THE AREA AND THE DVLPNG SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH THUS NE
WINDS ON THE COAST COULD RANGE 15-25 MPH. INLAND AREAS W OF
HIGHWAY 17 WILL SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE CHC FOR PRECIP.
OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NE. THE STG UPR LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SWD TO THE
WRN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE. STILL SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPR
40S INLAND AND 50-55 FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AFFECT EASTERN NC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RATHER BENIGN
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCEAN
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO WAVE
RUN UP ASSOCIATED WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BASED ON MODEL LI FORECASTS AND LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE COAST. ON SUNDAY THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT BEST EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR INLAND AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
FROST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TRANSIENT
MULTILAYERED RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PTCHY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED THIS MORN WITH SOME
MIXING AND T/TD SPREADS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES. VFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TODAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AS EXPECT BEST PRECIP OVERAGE TO REMAIN E OF HIGHWAY
17. MAY SEE SOME PTCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER INCRG CLDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG FOG
DVLPMT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SAT A GOOD CVRG OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR
CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT KT AND SEAS
3-6 FT. INCREASED WINDS SOME ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS TO AROUND 20
KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. CURRENETLY DIAMOND SHOALS SEAS AT 6 FT AND
LIKELY WILL SEE SOME 6 FOOTERS ACRS THE OUTER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDS ACRS THE SRN AND
CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH WHILE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM TODAY. NE WINDS WILL CONT NR 20
KT AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTS TO ARND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE OUTER WATERS OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO
OFF DIAMOND SHOALS ALONG WITH 6 FT SEAS. GALE WATCHES CONT FOR THE
AREA WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-5 FT. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NNW 10-15 KT AS THE SFC
LOW PULLS AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRAD TO RELAX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS SUNDAY. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST
LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPCLY OUTER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH SURF AND
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA
LVLS BY LATE MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS62 KMHX 310738
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEARER THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK TO
ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY E OF
HIGHWAY 17 WITH SCT SHOWERS AND MOCLDY SKIES. ALSO THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER ACRS COASTAL AREAS WITH THE SFC HIGH
MOVING N OF THE AREA AND THE DVLPNG SFC LOW TO THE SOUTH THUS NE
WINDS ON THE COAST COULD RANGE 15-25 MPH. INLAND AREAS W OF
HIGHWAY 17 WILL SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE CHC FOR PRECIP.
OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE OUTER BANKS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE NE. THE STG UPR LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SWD TO THE
WRN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TO DEVELOP INLAND LATE. STILL SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPR
40S INLAND AND 50-55 FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AFFECT EASTERN NC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RATHER BENIGN
FALL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY THEN MOVE OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF OF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
FALL SEASON SO FAR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCEAN
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND DUE TO WAVE
RUN UP ASSOCIATED WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS OFF OF THE COAST. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED PRECIPITATION AND SOME LOCALLY MUCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER EAST OF HIGHWAY
17 BASED ON MODEL LI FORECASTS AND LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ALONG THE COAST. ON SUNDAY THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT BEST EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY OCCUR INLAND AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR
FROST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A TRANSIENT
MULTILAYERED RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...PTCHY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED THIS MORN WITH SOME
MIXING AND T/TD SPREADS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES. VFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TODAY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC AS
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
TERMINALS AS EXPECT BEST PRECIP OVERAGE TO REMAIN E OF HIGHWAY
17. MAY SEE SOME PTCHY FOG AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS HOWEVER INCRG CLDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG FOG
DVLPMT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SAT A GOOD CVRG OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR
CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE NE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE NORTH WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM TODAY. NE WINDS WILL CONT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE AS THE
GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS. GALE WATCHES CONT FOR THE AREA WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT CURRENTLY IT APPEARS
WINDS AND SEAS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-5 FT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NNW 10-15 KT AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRAD TO RELAX.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NC COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS SUNDAY. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST
LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPCLY OUTER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15 TO
20 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH SURF AND
MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SCA
LVLS BY LATE MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS62 KMHX 310436
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO CHANGES ON FORECAST UPDATE. EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP NEARER THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL
HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK TO ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MINS OF MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S
COAST LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INC POPS ALONG COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AS MOST MODELS SHOW INC MOISTURE AND LIFT
NEAR COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR
COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESN`T OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY BKN LOW END STRATO CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT IN OFF
THE ATLANTIC ON FRI AS COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ANY RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH KEWN STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING
AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO CHANGES ON FORECAST UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE
AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO
THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/BTC/RF/DAG/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS62 KMHX 310217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THUR...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN
100 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY A WEAK LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HELPING TO BRING CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INC POPS ALONG COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AS MOST MODELS SHOW INC MOISTURE AND LIFT
NEAR COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR
COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESNT OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY BKN LOW END STRATO CU LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC ON FRI AS COASTAL LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...THOUGH KEWN STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT
SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THURS...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE. LATEST
SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 3-4 FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO
THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 302304 CCA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THUR...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INC POPS ALONG COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AS MOST MODELS SHOW INC MOISTURE AND LIFT
NEAR COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE.

AS OF 150 PM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR
COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESNT OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY BKN LOW END STRATO CU LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC ON FRI AS COASTAL LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...THOUGH KEWN STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ON FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT
SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF
ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER
AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM THUR...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INC POPS ALONG COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AS MOST MODELS SHOW INC MOISTURE AND LIFT
NEAR COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE.

AS OF 150 PM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR
COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESNT OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF
ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301956
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S WITH
A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR COUNTIES ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO UTILIZED A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESNT OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF
ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301824
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
224 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE AS THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S WITH
A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR COUNTIES ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO UTILIZED A
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF
ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 301745
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 940 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS MORNING.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THUS SCAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301745
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 940 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS MORNING.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
OCNL BKN SCU EXPECTED WITH NE WINDS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING...THEN
CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT
ENOUGH MIXING AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO THICKEN FRI MORNING AS SHRT WV
MOVES ACROSS FROM SW.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THUS SCAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/DAG








000
FXUS62 KMHX 301347
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
947 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 940 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS MORNING.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE WINDS
10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH TO 2-4 FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...THUS SCAS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE
SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. N-NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT...
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF/DAG






000
FXUS62 KMHX 300957
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
557 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TO
INIT TEMPS LOWER FOR NRN OBX. CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE WITH A DECENT HIGH PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORN THEN GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACRS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORN BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE. VFR CONDS CONT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 550 AM THU...MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE TO ISSUE SCA FOR THE NRN
AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE
INLET THROUGH NOON TODAY...AS SEAS ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
HAVE INCREASED TO 4 TO 7 FEET.

SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTED IN NORTH WINDS 15-2O
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED ACRS THE NRN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. N-NE WINDS
CONT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT AGAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300728
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD OFF THE SRN COASTAL AREAS WITH A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 KT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK BUT THERE CUD BE LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORN THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE MORE AMS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER JUST
OFF THE SRN OBX TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
ALSO MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALG THE FRONT SE
OF HAT AND MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT KEEPING THE GRADIENT PINCHED
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WITH N-NE WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
OVERALL THOUGH PLEASANT WX EXPECTED ACRS ERN NC TONIGHT WITH
MOCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID AND UPR 50S ON THE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...WEAK HIGH PRES JUST TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES
OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX FRI WITH SOME SHRA POSS OVER
CSTL WTRS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY INLAND TO PC COAST WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. AN INTENSE MID/UPR LOW OVER SRN GRT LAKE FRI EVENING
WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY SAT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FRI NIGHT WITH SOME SHRA POSS
LATE ESPCLY INLAND. AS THE UPR LOW SHIFTS E NEAR OR JUST S OF REGION
SAT WILL SEE SFC LOW DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE. MDLS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT DECENT
CVRG OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SAT AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY. BEST CAA DOES NOT DEVELOP TILL LATE...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

BIG STORY LATE SAT THRU FIRST PART OF SUN WILL BE STRONG NNW WINDS
THAT DEVELOP AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE. WIND ADVISORY LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR CST ESPCLY OBX. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR OBX AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL
PROB KEEP MINS ABOVE FREEZING INLAND WITH LIMITED FROST POTENTIAL.
COMBO OF COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
CLOSER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE LIKELY INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS. WARMER WTR
AND DECENT BRZ WILL KEEP BEACHES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORN MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
5-10 KT RANGE WITH VFR CONDS CONTG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS WITH HIGH PRES
JUST TO THE W. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH
GOOD CVRG OF RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS
THE LOW PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THU...SURGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN NORTH WINDS TODAY 10-2O KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACRS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. N-NE WINDS CONT IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5 FT AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACRS
THE NRN AND CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...HIGH PRES TO THE W AND LOW PRES OFF THE CST WILL
LEAD TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EARLY FRI WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE.
THE GUSTY N WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS IN SOLID 5 FT RANGE OUTER WTRS
FRI MORN BUT WILL CONT TO KEEP JUST BELOW SCA LVLS. LULL IN WINDS
EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO
CAROLINAS.  SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS NNW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE
SAT/SAT EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS
ESPCLY OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD NOW ALONG SRN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NEAR HAT TO OAJ. PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN
OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KT CURRENTLY AT DUCK. NO SIG
CHANGES TO FCST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FCST FOR CWA OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SHRA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ISOLD TSRA ASSOC
WITH STGR CONVECTION. MAINLY CHANGES TO INIT TEMPS WITH CURRENT
CONDS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER 60S COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THRU
SUNRISE THIS MORN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 2O KT WITH
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/RSB/BTC/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...CURRENTLY SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS CONT ACRS THE
CWA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD NOW ALONG SRN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NEAR HAT TO OAJ. PRETTY GOOD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN
OBX WITH N WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KT CURRENTLY AT DUCK. NO SIG
CHANGES TO FCST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FCST FOR CWA OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SHRA BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE ISOLD TSRA ASSOC
WITH STGR CONVECTION. MAINLY CHANGES TO INIT TEMPS WITH CURRENT
CONDS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT FROM THE LWR TO MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER 60S COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THRU
SUNRISE THIS MORN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 2O KT WITH
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACRS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/RSB/BTC/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 300220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAVE
MIGRATED INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOTED A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME SHOWERS
TO THE SW. SO KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES. ALSO HAVE OBSERVED BRIEF WIND GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TEMPS FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE
QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT RAPID
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH WINDS NORTHERLY IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...A SHOT-FUSED MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ADDED ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. NORTH WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SW WINDS 10-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO N TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER
WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/BTC/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 292315
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AS BULK OF ACTIVITY STILL IN PIEDMONT OF NC. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE BRINGS IN SHOWERS BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN FALLING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE
QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION
MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM WED...GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY TO IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT RAPID
CLEARING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH WINDS NORTHERLY IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO N TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH
WINDS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/TL
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC/TL
MARINE...RSB/BTC










000
FXUS62 KMHX 291944
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
344 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE
FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A
LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...A REAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN
THE NAM INDICATED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND THE GFS WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN PRODUCING THE FORECST
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BEHIND A STRONG FRONT
DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS SOUND SIDE
FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LOW PASSES
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD
AIR INITIALLY WITH EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 60 MONDAY, MID AND UPPER
60S TUESDAY, AND NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. MULTILAYERED RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE BY WED AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND IMPACTS CAN
BE RESOLVED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.


$$

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT COMING THRU
THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREDOMINATE MVFR BY LATE EVENING
THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS MAY
GUST 15KT AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF
SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON SATURDAY AS HIGH AS 25 KT AT TAF LOCATIONS.

PREDOMINANT VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.
GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG EARLY MONDAY WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH 6 FOOT SEAS OR HIGHER
JUST EAST OF OUR 20 NM COASTAL WATERS ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL LET
UP A BIT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW WRAPS UP OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON SO FAR. ONCE
THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WILL
SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG
NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RSB/BTC
AVIATION...RSB/BTC
MARINE...RSB/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 291850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PVA WILL PROVIDE
FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY
FAST MOVING BUT CUD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY ALSO PULL DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CHANCES FOR STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK BUT CUD BE A
LINGERING SHOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.

BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LATE ARRIVING SO TEMPS REMAIN
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY. ANY LINGER PRECIP ON THE
COAST WILL END EARLY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THRU MIDDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS BUT ACTUALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES ESP ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN. LOW
TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-
MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE
SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT
WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

$$

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT COMING THRU
THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF PREDOMINATE MVFR BY LATE EVENING
THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH VFR RETURNING BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS MAY
GUST 15KT AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH CHC OF SHRA
AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN LATE SAT AND
CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT. SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL BUMP UP NORTH WINDS
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5
FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT.

LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH
PRES IS REPLACED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING VERY STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE
AND DEEPENS NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING
AND CONT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE
SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW
WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF
PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS. CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 291417
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1017 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IN STORE AS DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM FULL AMPLITUDE TROF AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY. NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY GIVEN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS, BUT HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. ANY PRECIP
ACCOMPANYING THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA MOVES EWD ACRS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

$$

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A BIT OF PATCHY FOG AT OAJ BUT THIS SHUD LIFT SHORTLY WITH
VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCT TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBL TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY. SW
WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC/CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF/BTC
MARINE...JAC/RF/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290916
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
516 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 515 AM WED...ONLY CHANGES TO INIT T/TD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONT TO SEE WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER PRESENT. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. PRECIP MOVES INTO NW
COASTAL PLAINS AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA MOVES EWD ACRS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS EARLY THIS MORN AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBL TONIGHT AT THE
TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM WED...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT
AND SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4
FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONT TO SEE WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL
SWLY FLOW BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE
UPPER 70S COASTAL SXNS. PRECIP MOVES INTO NW COASTAL PLAINS AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AS AN INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE TO LIKELY ACRS NW SXNS THIS EVE AND
ERN SXNS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND PVA TRANSLATES EWD ACRS
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH
LWR 50S WELL INLAND TO THE LWR 60S IMMEDIATE COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING
OF THE CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THU MORN WITH
LINGERING SHRA COAST ENDING BY AROUND NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM W
TO E WITH HIGHS MAINLY 65 TO 70. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE HELD
UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPR 60S...COULD SEE SOME SHRA OVER CSTL WTRS IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC LOW
PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST E OF ERN NC WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND LIFT INDICATED JUST N OF MID LVL LOW.  WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALL AREAS...HIGHEST N AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP FURTHER IF MDL TRENDS
CONT. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY SAT TO MID/UPR 50S AS APPEARS
THE STRONG CAA DOES NOT KICK IN TIL LATE.

THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND STRONG NNW WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SAT THRU SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPCLY OBX...WL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF OBX. SKIES WILL GRAD CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...HOWEVER DECENT MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL LATE SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT
WITH CONT MCLR SKIES...HIGHS SUN WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BETTER CHC FOR KILLING FROST/FREEZE INLAND SUN NIGHT AS WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 EXPECTED COOLER SPOTS AWAY FROM WATER.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR
THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS EARLY THIS MORN AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SUB VFR CONDS PSBLE TONIGHT ACRS
THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SHRA SHOULD BE E OF TAF SITES BY EARLY THU MON WITH
VFR EXPECTED AS SKIES CLR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT FRI AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT
WITH CHC OF SHRA AND POSS PDS OF SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR WILL RETURN
LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT
TODAY. SW WINDS 10-20 KT SHIFT TO NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH SEAS CONTG AT 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FT OUTER WTRS...POSS REACHING 6 FT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT WEAK HIGH PRES IS REPLACED
BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING VERY
STRONG UPR TRF/LOW. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND DEEPENS NW WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE SAT AFTN AND EVENING AND CONT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WILL SEE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ESPCLY SAT NIGHT AND COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
OVER OUTER WARM WTRS. THESE STRONG NW WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW
WATER CONCERNS FOR WRN SIDE OF PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT RIVERS.
CURRENT WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING AOA 10 FT
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290447
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS CONT MOVING IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH MILD TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL SEEMS
LIMITED DUE TO INCRG HIGH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT
DECOUPLING. NO CHANGE TO LOWS WHICH ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MID 50S
WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL SXNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS...AND SOME PTCHY FOG TWD MORN IF WINDS DECOUPLE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. CONT MENTION
OF LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SWLY WINDS INCRG
TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4 FT. THESE CONDS CONTINUE ON WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/TL
MARINE...JAC/BTC/CQD/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 290206
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP/DEW POINT
TRENDS. CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN QUICKLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT MORE MILD AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ALSO...THE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN AND IF SOUTHERLY WINDS DO NOT DECOUPLE.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAYBE FOG IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. INCLUDED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. LATEST OBS SHOW
S/SW WINDS 5-15KT WITH SEAS 1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/CQD/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 282305
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH EVENING UPDATE. UPDATED
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT DIURNAL TRENDS. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WITH MOIST BL. AT THIS TIME THINK LIGHT S/SWLY WINDS WILL
INHIBIT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MORE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SWLY
FLOW AND HIGHER TD`S AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAYBE FOG IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. INCLUDED LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/TL
MARINE...BTC/CQD









000
FXUS62 KMHX 281906
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
306 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...WITH COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK
INTO MO/AR/TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW LINGERING AREA
OF PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NE SC/SE NC COAST. NARRE SHOWS FOG
SPREADING UP THE COAST...THOUGH BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS
TO BE FINALLY DISSIPATING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOIST
BL. AT THIS TIME THINK LIGHT S/SWLY WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MORE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY FLOW...LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW...LOOKS LIKE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUE WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SC ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ON THE WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES REPLACING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE. INITIAL COLD FRONT SIGNALLING THE BEGINNING OF THE CHANGE TO
COOLER WEATHER PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH A QUICK MOVING BUT DEEP SWATH
OF MOISTURE AND PVA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
THU MORNING OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS TEMPS (MID 60S)
ABOUT 15 DEGS COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TEMPS THU NIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP SLIGHTLY BY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND
50S COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE MID 60S.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MID RANGE MODEL RUNS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW THRU THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT
THE REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR AS UPPER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOWS REACHING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 30S INLAND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED NW WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL BUT THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

WELL BLO NORMAL/COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE
DEEP TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO DISLODGE THE COLD AIR THO WITH HIGHS NEAR 60/LOW 60S MONDAY
THEN BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
FROST POTENTIAL CONTINUING MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE
FOG...IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THU AND FRI
AS HIGH PRES CROSSES THE AREA. UPPER LOW PUSHES THRU THE AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG/COLD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
LATE SAT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NW
WINDS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS
1-2FT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
10-20KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4FT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT NW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE
MARINE AREA WED NIGHT. SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP NORTH WINDS
GOING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THURSDAY THRU EARLY FRIDAY WITH SEAS
POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. A SECONDARY AND VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENT WAVE
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILDING 10-12FT IN THIS SURGE BUT
CUD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28:

NEW BERN (CRAVEN COUNTY AIRPORT)...85 IN 1984
CHERRY POINT MCAS..................85 IN 1984
JACKSONVILLE EOC (CO-OP SITE)......85 IN 2010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT...81 IN 2009
BEAUFORT (MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD)...79 IN 2010

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BM/BTC/RF
MARINE...CQD/BTC
CLIMATE...HSA










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