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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231420
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...PRECIP INC IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED PER REGIONAL 88D`S...AND INC POPS THIS AFTERNOON ON
TRACK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE BIT...INTO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE AS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AT TIMES
THROUGH TODAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS PER MESOANALYSIS...
AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE THE NE FLOW AT SFC. WITH THE
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAINLY SEE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN...INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO NE FLOW. VCSH
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. ANTICIPATE PRECIP
ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MVFR FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDS DIMINISH...WINDS BRIEFLY DECOUPLE WITH PLENTY OF SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NE
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS 10-15KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 5-10KTS SOUTH. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM 2-3FT
DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 231420
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM SAT...PRECIP INC IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED PER REGIONAL 88D`S...AND INC POPS THIS AFTERNOON ON
TRACK. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP JUST A LITTLE BIT...INTO THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE AS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AT TIMES
THROUGH TODAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS PER MESOANALYSIS...
AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE THE NE FLOW AT SFC. WITH THE
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAINLY SEE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN...INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S WITH THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO NE FLOW. VCSH
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. ANTICIPATE PRECIP
ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MVFR FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDS DIMINISH...WINDS BRIEFLY DECOUPLE WITH PLENTY OF SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NE
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS 10-15KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 5-10KTS SOUTH. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM 2-3FT
DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 231121
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...INCREASED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INFLUX OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT
HAS HELPED TO GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING....MAINLY FROM GREENVILLE TO ORIENTAL. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND CHC/SCHC
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE APPROACH
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BY
MID- MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER AND NE
FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO NE FLOW. VCSH
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANY SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. ANTICIPATE PRECIP
ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MVFR FOG/STRATUS MAY BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
AS CLOUDS DIMINISH...WINDS BRIEFLY DECOUPLE WITH PLENTY OF SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NE
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS 10-15KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 5-10KTS SOUTH. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM 2-3FT
DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230909
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
509 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BY MID-MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND NE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM
2-3FT DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230909
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
509 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BY MID-MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND NE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM
2-3FT DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG/LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BY MID-MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND NE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM
2-3FT DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP/DAG
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP





000
FXUS62 KMHX 230850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
450 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
ON SUNDAY AND LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SE. ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AS WE
APPROACH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC SHOWERS/SCHC
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BY MID-MORNING GIVING WAY TO NELY FLOW. WITH CLOUD
COVER AND NE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE REGION...ANTICIPATE LINGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
TO BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUED PERIOD OF SCHC INLAND/CHC ALONG THE COAST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
STILL IN PLACE UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW...LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM SAT...SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES BUILDS SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
FROM NW TO N AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EAST
SHUNTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES E FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SCALED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT WEAK CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR SW INLAND ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS MONDAY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS AS SEA-SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. ATTEMPTED TO COMPROMISE AMONG 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH PROVED TO BE VERY TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN MODERATE
BACK NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND...USERS
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AVIATION FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE MAIN
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK...RESULTING IN NE WINDS 5-10 MPH AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS TO THE SW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...ANTICIPATE NELY
FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT CHC SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SURGE FROM THE NE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 15-20KTS AND 12-16KTS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS FROM
2-3FT DURING THE DAY TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 3-4FT SOUTH
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM SAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NE WINDS WILL BE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT...THOUGH NEARSHORE SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. NE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY DIMINISHES
LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUES...AND MAY SEE SEAS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY TUES AFTERNOON OR TUES NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PASSING TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE NC COAST. 00Z
WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS SEAS INCREASING 8-12 FT BY THURSDAY...THOUGH
WILL CAP SEAS 6-8 FT FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. USED A BLEND OF
LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN A
TAPER BACK VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP/DAG
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP






000
FXUS62 KMHX 230552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID PLACE
THE NW SECTOR IN CHC PRECIP GIVEN MORE CONSISTENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
MORE AMPLE LIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED IN FROM NE AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SW. THIS WILL VEER
WINDS FROM THE NE BY SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPED IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE AREA. NE
WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS STILL AROUND
2 FT EVERYWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...JBM/HSA/TL/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 230126
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAR UPSTREAM. WILL CUT BACK POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI... CONVECTION PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT PRESENT...BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH
REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 230126
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FAR UPSTREAM. WILL CUT BACK POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI... CONVECTION PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT PRESENT...BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH
REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BRUSH PAST THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. COVERAGE ELSEWHERE IS ISOLATED
AT BEST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH FRONT TO THE
NORTH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT WILL NOT CUT BACK POPS ANY
FURTHER FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS POPS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI... CONVECTION PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT PRESENT...BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH
REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 222316
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BRUSH PAST THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. COVERAGE ELSEWHERE IS ISOLATED
AT BEST. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH FRONT TO THE
NORTH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT WILL NOT CUT BACK POPS ANY
FURTHER FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS POPS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK SUBSTANTIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI... CONVECTION PASSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT OAJ EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT PRESENT...BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH
REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM FRI...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 222033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PIEDMONT
OF NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. THINKING IS STILL THAT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE HEAD INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING...AS NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
IMPACT E NC. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBSERVED ML CAPE VALS 1.5 TO 2K J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL WITH VALS 35+ KT CENTERED ON NE
PORTIONS OF THE FA. NEAR TERM GUID INDICATES THESE VALS EXPECTED
TO INC TO AROUND 40KT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SREF CALIBRATED
PROBS FOR SEVERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
THE CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS WHERE
PARAMETERS ARE MAXIMIZED...AND HIGH CHANCE/SCT ELSEWHERE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DROP A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES...THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED ALOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. STORMS WILL EXIT THE
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND PASS THROUGH
THE FA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI... WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS E NC. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS FROM 21Z-
06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THREAT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS REMAINING LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT WITH A
8 SEC DOMINANT PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
SAT MORNING WITH SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...
ESP ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL









000
FXUS62 KMHX 222033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS PIEDMONT
OF NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. THINKING IS STILL THAT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE HEAD INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING...AS NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
IMPACT E NC. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBSERVED ML CAPE VALS 1.5 TO 2K J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING AS WELL WITH VALS 35+ KT CENTERED ON NE
PORTIONS OF THE FA. NEAR TERM GUID INDICATES THESE VALS EXPECTED
TO INC TO AROUND 40KT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SREF CALIBRATED
PROBS FOR SEVERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
THE CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS WHERE
PARAMETERS ARE MAXIMIZED...AND HIGH CHANCE/SCT ELSEWHERE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DROP A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...AND WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES...THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED ALOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. STORMS WILL EXIT THE
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND PASS THROUGH
THE FA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI... WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS E NC. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS FROM 21Z-
06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THREAT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS REMAINING LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LEADING TO BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 FT WITH A
8 SEC DOMINANT PERIOD. WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
SAT MORNING WITH SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...
ESP ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL










000
FXUS62 KMHX 221738
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK NW SFC FLOW.
TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S MOST AREAS AND HEAT INDICES EDGING
OVER 100...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. A FEW LOCALES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...105 OR
SO...THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THINKING THE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE SPORADIC AND LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO. CURRENT
THINKING HOLDS THAT TS MAY DEVELOP OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NC/SRN
VA WHERE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CLOUD DECK RESIDES. THIS CLOUD DECK
MAY AID IN FGEN PROCESSES AND HENCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE INDUCING MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE OR MORE BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH E
NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR AN ISO SEVERE
STORM...WITH MAIN THREAT STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE HIGH PWATS AND
ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI... WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS E NC. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS FROM 21Z-
06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THREAT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS REMAINING LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221738
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK NW SFC FLOW.
TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S MOST AREAS AND HEAT INDICES EDGING
OVER 100...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESIDE. A FEW LOCALES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...105 OR
SO...THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THINKING THE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE SPORADIC AND LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO. CURRENT
THINKING HOLDS THAT TS MAY DEVELOP OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NC/SRN
VA WHERE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CLOUD DECK RESIDES. THIS CLOUD DECK
MAY AID IN FGEN PROCESSES AND HENCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE INDUCING MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE OR MORE BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH E
NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR AN ISO SEVERE
STORM...WITH MAIN THREAT STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE HIGH PWATS AND
ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRI... WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CURRENTLY ACROSS E NC. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS FROM 21Z-
06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS
TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THREAT
FOR THESE CONDITIONS REMAINING LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A TIME SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY THOUGH REMAINING LIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221430
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK NW SFC FLOW.
TEMPS CLIMBING AS FCST THROUGH THE 80S LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX T`S A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HAVE EDGED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AS EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO REMAIN PRECIP FREE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
NC/SRN VA WHERE FGEN INDUCED BAND OF BKN MID CLOUD DECK IS
RESIDING. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE INDUCING MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE
OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH E NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES BEFORE RAISING POPS ANY MORE
THAN HIGH CHANCE/SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STILL UNCERTAINTY
ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT. THE AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET
TO THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN MCS
MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS
TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY MIXES. ANTICIPATE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE
VCTS FROM 18Z-06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AND
SOME CLEARING/DECOUPLING TAKES SHAPE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221430
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK NW SFC FLOW.
TEMPS CLIMBING AS FCST THROUGH THE 80S LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX T`S A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HAVE EDGED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AS EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE DAY TO REMAIN PRECIP FREE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
NC/SRN VA WHERE FGEN INDUCED BAND OF BKN MID CLOUD DECK IS
RESIDING. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE INDUCING MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE
OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH E NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE AFTERNOON EVOLVES BEFORE RAISING POPS ANY MORE
THAN HIGH CHANCE/SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STILL UNCERTAINTY
ON COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT. THE AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE DUE TO EXPECTED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET
TO THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN MCS
MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS
TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY MIXES. ANTICIPATE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE
VCTS FROM 18Z-06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AND
SOME CLEARING/DECOUPLING TAKES SHAPE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 221125
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CROSSING
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE. MODIFIED THE POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE BEEN STEADY WITH LOWS TEMPS THAT DROPPED INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME CLOUDS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET
TO THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING SCHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT IMPULSE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN
MCS MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA
MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY MIXES. ANTICIPATE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE
VCTS FROM 18Z-06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AND
SOME CLEARING/DECOUPLING TAKES SHAPE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 221125
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CROSSING
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A BULK OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE. MODIFIED THE POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE BEEN STEADY WITH LOWS TEMPS THAT DROPPED INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES.
ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME CLOUDS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET
TO THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING SCHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT IMPULSE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN
MCS MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA
MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY MIXES. ANTICIPATE HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE
VCTS FROM 18Z-06Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AND
SOME CLEARING/DECOUPLING TAKES SHAPE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
EXITING THE VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE
WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE 2 TO 3
FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEP
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220807
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
407 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET TO
THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING SCHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN MCS MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
TERMS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
CALM AND WE HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM
THE WEST. COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...BENIGN BOATING WITH S SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE
VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING LATER
BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN
PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220807
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
407 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGING SET TO
THE WEST...EASTERN NC HAS BEEN UNDER PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL STREAM ANOTHER BATCH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING SCHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AN MCS MIGRATING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN NC BY MID-DAY.
THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
TERMS OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND POTENTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. IF
THE SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CROSS THE VA MOUNTAINS AND ARRIVE DURING
PEAK HEATING THAN WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INITIATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
NEARING 3 J/KG AND 25KTS SHEAR)...THIS COULD MAKE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY
GOOD PACE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MCS MAY REQUIRE REDEVELOPMENT
IF THE MOUNTAINS IMPACTED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THAN WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO FAVORED FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS 330 AM FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER BE CROSSING THE REGION AND EXITING
OFFSHORE...OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY FEEL THE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT
OFF THE NC/VA COAST OVERNIGHT....WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON
GOING THROUGH EARLY AM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AFTER PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
STILL AMPLE UPPER/MID LEVEL LIFT TO HAVE CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT
INTO SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THROUGH THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT
EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATE SAT WILL SEE
TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING 90F.

SURFACE FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND STALL
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUN/MON...MAINLY LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
MAINLY DRY MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN  THE
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
CALM AND WE HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM
THE WEST. COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AND MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...BENIGN BOATING WITH S SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE
VA/NC COAST EARLY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING LATER
BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO START AND THEN
PICK UP FROM THE WEST AROUND 10-12 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIND AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FEET FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
2 TO 3 FEET OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO SAT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SAT
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT SAT AND MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE NE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING S OVER INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-5 FT...POSSIBLE REACHING 6 FT OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUES
BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
SWELL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND 00Z WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...THUS USED BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN 00Z WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...DAG/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220536
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...THE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH WANING FORCING FROM BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT. ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE LINGERING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX PUSHES OFF THE
VA COAST...AND ANOTHER APPROACHING ON ITS HEELS. MIN TEMPS THE MID
70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEV ELOPEMENT ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AROUND
SUNRISE. FEEL THE MODELS HAVE MISHANDLED THE ALREADY DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH MANY MODELS ILLUSTRATING THIS
POTENTIAL WILL DO THE GUIDANCE SOME JUSTICE BY AT LEAST HAVING A
SCHC OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE
MORNING AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER
STORMS BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2
INCHES AND SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER
90S INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING
90 FAR SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
CALM AND WE HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE FROM
THE WEST. COULD BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. EXPECT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
CORRESPOND TO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW
PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT
WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND
2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/LEP
MARINE...JBM/BTC/LEP








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 220225
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WILL
SEND ANOTHER UPDATED SET OF ZONES SHORTLY. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC









000
FXUS62 KMHX 220133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SOONER THAN
EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING TO POPS. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 220133
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
933 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SOONER THAN
EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING TO POPS. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT PRECIP WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THAT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT LATE MORNING
AND AFTN ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS
BUT MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND
SOME TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND
AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 930 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST
SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
FRI AFTN. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212258
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH ALL THE FORECAST
AREA RAIN-FREE. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SW NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS OVER NE HALF OF AREA.
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING MAINLY AT PGV. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI
MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212258
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
658 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH ALL THE FORECAST
AREA RAIN-FREE. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SW NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AREA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST 20/30 POPS OVER NE HALF OF AREA.
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 7 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING MAINLY AT PGV. MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI
MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...HSA/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/JBM/BTC
MARINE...HSA/JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 212035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
SEA BREEZE ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC POP FROM
8 PM TO 2 AM WITH MODELS INDICATING NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT WV
ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST
20/30 POPS WITH HIGHEST OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC








000
FXUS62 KMHX 212035
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
SEA BREEZE ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC POP FROM
8 PM TO 2 AM WITH MODELS INDICATING NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHRT WV
ACTIVITY MOVING IN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST
20/30 POPS WITH HIGHEST OVER NRN 2/3 OF AREA. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
FROM NW THROUGH THE DAY...AND SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT MORNING AND AFTN
ALL ZONES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST PSBL WITH STRONGER STORMS BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW OVER 2 INCHES AND SOME
TRAINING PSBL. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS JUST N OF AREA WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN WEAK FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI AFTN.
SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211859
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT EVE AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION AND
SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY/VORTICITY MAXIMA, SO WILL HAVE GOOD TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU SATURDAY EVENING. AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS APPROACHING 90 FAR
SOUTH.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AS SFC
HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH. THIS SHUD LEAD TO A MAINLY
DRY EARLY AND MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THRU SAT EVE WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT CROSSES...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
SAT AFTN WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THRU SAT MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT
TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS
INCREASE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS TUESDAY BUT COULD POTENTIAL SEE
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM SWELL THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/RF
MARINE...BTC/RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211835
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CARTERET COUNTY WITH SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND WITH STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REDEVELOP INLAND. ADUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. KEWN HAS HEAT INDEX AROUND 105 PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
OTHER AREAS REMAINING BELOW THAT READING AND WILL NOT ISSUE
ADVISORY.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
AS OF 130 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT
KEWN AND KOAJ AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS WELL BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATE TONIGHT MOST SITES...CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AGAIN FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM/RF
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM







000
FXUS62 KMHX 211552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SCT WORDING BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO NRN PAMLICO SOUND AND STLT/RADAR INDICATIONS OF ACTIVITY
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER CARTERET COUNTY. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL ZONE MID TO
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS 20/30 POPS THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED
PULSE SVR TSTM PSBL AS MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATES WINDEX VALUES TO
64 KT.

NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND NAM MOS GDNC...AND SRN SECTIONS COULD SEE A FEW AREAS
MEET MINIMAL HEAT ADVSY CRITERIA DURING AFTN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR 1 PM UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY THIS MORNING JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR SCT TSTM WORDING REST OF TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/JBM
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD/JBM








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY
THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30
PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE
COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 211103
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
703 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TODAY...LIFTING TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION TO RODANTHE AREA. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC EARLY
THIS MORNING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...THOUGH
WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-30
PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG ALONG THE
COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...MIXED BAG OF LIFR/MVFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS THIS
MORNING. PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE
RODANTHE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND
LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...BEFORE
PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY
WITH SE/SW WINDS 5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIFTING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON
AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG
ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND/OR SHOWERS
DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS
5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIFTING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON
AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG
ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND/OR SHOWERS
DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS
5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 210446
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NORTHERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MOVING SE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE SC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST
NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE
WATERS...WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND S/SW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SEAS 2-3FT THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/HSA/SK/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 210446
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1246 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR
UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NORTHERN NC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO WEAKEN MOVING SE...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE SC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IF ACTIVITY MANAGES TO HOLD
TOGETHER. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST
NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THU...WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE
WATERS...WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND S/SW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SEAS 2-3FT THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/HSA/SK/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 210104
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED. JUST SENT UPDATED
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
THE NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 202306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AT
PRESENT BUT WILL LIKEY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A SHORT
WHILE AGO HAS NOW DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD








000
FXUS62 KMHX 202306
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AT
PRESENT BUT WILL LIKEY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A SHORT
WHILE AGO HAS NOW DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD







000
FXUS62 KMHX 201929
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF
THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MAINLY ISOL SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. NAM AND GFS BRING A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
RTES BUT THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF
INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO
PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS
IN CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT  NLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...HOWEVER SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SEEN WINDS SHIFT TO SLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK








000
FXUS62 KMHX 201929
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN
PINES. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE CWA AND IS
PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHILE THE SEABREEZE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST...HOWEVER LIGHT NLY WINDS
KEEPING IT FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR INLAND AS OF YET. MOST OF
THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURING SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OTHER BOUNDARIES AND WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE
NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND COND
PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF
ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...MAINLY ISOL SHOWERS/TSTMS INVOF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. NAM AND GFS BRING A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
RTES BUT THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF
INCREASED CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO
PERHAPS SCT CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS
IN CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT  NLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS...HOWEVER SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE SEEN WINDS SHIFT TO SLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK







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